CN-115483677-B - Method and device for determining generating capacity loss of wind power plant

CN115483677BCN 115483677 BCN115483677 BCN 115483677BCN-115483677-B

Abstract

The application provides a method and a device for determining generating capacity loss of a wind power plant, wherein the method comprises the steps of obtaining failure rates of different components, power data of a wind generating set and wind resource data of the wind power plant, inputting the failure rates into a Monte Carlo simulation module, generating sample data according to the failure rates in a scene generation module of the Monte Carlo simulation module, generating first random generating capacity scene data without considering component damage according to the power data and the wind resource data, determining second random generating capacity scene data with the component damage being considered according to the sample data, a wind power plant topological structure and maintenance time length corresponding to the different components respectively in a calculation module of the Monte Carlo simulation module, determining first expected total generating capacity without considering the component damage and second expected total generating capacity with the component damage being considered according to the first expected total generating capacity and the second expected total generating capacity with the component damage being considered.

Inventors

ZHU JIANGSHENG
LIU MIN
Ma Kuichao
XU YUN
CHEN LE
MENG XIAOGANG

Assignees

上海电气风电集团股份有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20220525

Claims (10)

1. A method for determining a loss of power generation in a wind farm, the method comprising: Acquiring failure rates of different components in an electric quantity transmission system of a wind power plant, power data of a wind generating set arranged in the wind power plant and wind resource data of the wind power plant; inputting the failure rate of the different components, the power data and the wind resource data into a Monte Carlo simulation module; In a scene generation module of the Monte Carlo simulation module, generating sample data of failure scenes of the wind power plant at different moments in different time periods according to failure rates of different components, and generating first random generated energy scene data without considering component damage in the different time periods according to the power data and the wind resource data, wherein the sample data comprises failure time of the failure components in the failure scenes; Generating random wind speed data of the different components in the different time periods through Weibull distribution according to the random wind direction data; Determining first random power generation amount scene data without considering component damage in different time periods according to the power data and the random wind speed data; determining second random power generation amount scene data of the wind power plant when the components are considered to be damaged in different time periods according to the sample data, the topological structure of the wind power plant and the preset maintenance time periods corresponding to the different components respectively, determining first expected total power generation amount of the wind power plant when the components are not considered to be damaged in the different time periods according to the first random power generation amount scene data, and determining second expected total power generation amount of the wind power plant when the components are considered to be damaged in the different time periods according to the second random power generation amount scene data, wherein the second power generation amount of the wind power plant when the components are not considered to be damaged in the different time periods is calculated according to the failure time of the failure components in the sample data, the topological structure of the wind power plant and the maintenance time periods corresponding to the failure components; and determining the power generation loss rate of the wind power plant in different time periods according to the first expected total power generation and the second expected total power generation.
2. A method of determining a loss of power production of a wind farm according to claim 1, wherein the generating sample data of failure scenarios of the wind farm at different moments in time in different time periods from the failure rates of the different components comprises: And generating sample data of failure scenes of the wind power plant at different moments in different time periods through poisson distribution according to the failure rates of the different components.
3. The method for determining a power generation amount loss of a wind farm according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the first power generation amount of the wind farm in the corresponding failure scenario according to the failure time of the failure member in the sample data, the topology structure of the wind farm, and the maintenance duration corresponding to the failure member includes: Determining the downtime of a wind generating set where the failure member is located and an associated wind generating set according to the failure time of the failure member in the sample data, the topological structure of the wind farm and the maintenance time corresponding to the failure member, wherein the power generation of the associated wind generating set is influenced by the shutdown of the wind generating set where the failure member is located; and calculating the first power generation amount of the wind power plant in a corresponding failure scene according to the downtime and the associated wind generating set.
4. A method of determining a loss of power production from a wind farm according to claim 3, wherein when the failure member is a cable, the associated wind turbine is connected to the wind turbine where the cable is located by the cable.
5. The method for determining a power generation amount loss of a wind farm according to claim 1, wherein the determining a power generation amount loss rate of the wind farm in the different time periods according to the first desired total power generation amount and the second desired total power generation amount includes: And determining the power generation loss rate of the wind power plant in different time periods according to the ratio of the power generation difference value obtained by subtracting the second expected power generation from the first expected power generation to the first expected power generation.
6. The method of determining a loss of power generation in a wind farm according to claim 1, wherein the different components comprise at least two of a cable, a converter, and a transformer.
7. The method for determining a loss of power generation capacity of a wind farm according to claim 1, wherein the acquiring failure rates of different components in a power transmission system of the wind farm, power data of a wind turbine generator set arranged in the wind farm, and wind resource data of the wind farm includes: According to the design scheme of the current wind power plant, the failure rate of the components with corresponding types is selected from a failure rate database, and the power data of the wind generating set arranged in the current wind power plant and the wind resource data of the current wind power plant are determined; the design scheme comprises a wind power plant layout scheme of the current wind power plant and the model of the laid wind power generator set, and the models of different components are related to the model of the wind power generator set.
8. A method of determining a loss of power production from a wind farm according to claim 1, wherein the wind farm is an offshore wind farm.
9. A device for determining a loss of power generation in a wind farm, comprising one or more processors configured to implement the method for determining a loss of power generation in a wind farm as claimed in any of claims 1 to 8.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that a program is stored thereon, which program, when being executed by a processor, implements a method of determining a loss of power generation by a wind farm according to any of claims 1-8.

Description

Method and device for determining generating capacity loss of wind power plant Technical Field The application relates to the field of wind power plants, in particular to a method and a device for determining the power generation capacity loss of a wind power plant. Background Typically, the loss of wind farm power production due to unavailability is calculated in a deterministic way, e.g., assuming an unavailability of 3%, the loss of annual average power production (AEP) due to unavailability can be calculated with the following formula: AEPLoss=3%×AEP and the unavailability of a power transmission system depends on many factors, such as failure rate and downtime of the equipment. In the prior art, this problem is solved from a deterministic point of view, assuming that the annual average power production loss due to unavailability is deterministic. However, in practical situations, there is a large degree of uncertainty in these annual average power production losses due to unavailability. Disclosure of Invention The application provides a method and a device for determining the power generation capacity loss of a wind power plant. Specifically, the application is realized by the following technical scheme: The embodiment of the application provides a method for determining the power generation capacity loss of a wind power plant, which comprises the following steps: Acquiring failure rates of different components in an electric quantity transmission system of a wind power plant, power data of a wind generating set arranged in the wind power plant and wind resource data of the wind power plant; inputting the failure rate of the different components, the power data and the wind resource data into a Monte Carlo simulation module; In a scene generation module of the Monte Carlo simulation module, generating sample data of failure scenes of the wind power plant at different moments in different time periods according to failure rates of the different components, and generating first random power generation amount scene data without considering component damage in the different time periods according to the power data and the wind resource data, wherein the sample data comprises failure time of the failure components in the failure scene; In a calculation module of the Monte Carlo simulation module, according to the sample data, the topological structure of the wind power plant and the preset maintenance time periods corresponding to the different components, second random power generation amount scene data when component damage is considered in different time periods are determined, according to the first random power generation amount scene data, first expected total power generation amount when component damage is not considered in the wind power plant in different time periods is determined, and according to the second random power generation amount scene data, second expected total power generation amount when component damage is considered in the wind power plant in different time periods is determined; and determining the power generation loss rate of the wind power plant in different time periods according to the first expected total power generation and the second expected total power generation. Optionally, the generating sample data of failure scenes of the wind farm at different moments in different time periods according to failure rates of the different components includes: And generating sample data of failure scenes of the wind power plant at different moments in different time periods through poisson distribution according to the failure rates of the different components. Optionally, the generating the first random power generation amount scenario data without considering component damage in the different time periods according to the power data and the wind resource data includes: According to the wind resource data, generating random wind direction data of the different components in the different time periods through multiple distribution; Generating random wind speed data of the different components in the different time periods through Weibull distribution according to the random wind direction data; And determining first random power generation amount scene data without considering component damage in different time periods according to the power data and the random wind speed data. Optionally, the determining the second random power generation amount scene data when component damage is considered in the different time periods according to the sample data, the topology structure of the wind farm and the preset maintenance time periods corresponding to the different components respectively includes: Calculating a first power generation amount of the wind power plant in a corresponding failure scene and a second power generation amount of the wind power plant in different time periods according to the failure time of the failure component in the sample data, the topological structure of t