CN-115600374-B - Emergency public event emotion infection simulation method based on improved SIRS model

Abstract

A sudden public event emotion infection simulation method based on an improved SIRS model provides a function for quantifying pedestrian panic emotion, and a related time-varying parameter calculation method for panic emotion infection of a crowd based on an infectious disease infection mechanism. The method comprises the steps of carrying out three-dimensional simulation modeling on a public place with sudden accidents by using computer simulation software, providing an emotion function for quantifying pedestrian risk perception, randomly setting emotion values of pedestrians to be evacuated, dividing emotion states according to pedestrian risk perception degrees, determining a time-varying parameter calculation method related to panic emotion infection of a crowd, establishing a SIRS state transfer relation considering the risk perception and self emotion adjustment of the pedestrians, determining evacuation speed of the pedestrians under the emotion infection, and carrying out simulation.

Inventors

• LI JUNBO
• ZHANG FANGWEI
• LIU WEILE
• YIN CHUANZHONG
• NI HUAN
• LI TAIYANG

Assignees

• 山东交通学院
• 上海海事大学

Dates

Publication Date

20260508

Application Date

20220916

Claims (2)

1. 1. The emergency common event emotion infection simulation method based on the improved SIRS model is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps of S1, carrying out three-dimensional simulation modeling on a public place with an emergency by utilizing computer simulation software, wherein the three-dimensional simulation modeling comprises 3 parts of scene modeling, setting a pedestrian evacuation logic diagram and setting pedestrian parameters, wherein the scene modeling comprises an internal structure for setting an area to be evacuated, the position of the emergency and an import and export position; step S2, a mood function for quantifying pedestrian risk perception is proposed, and a mood value of a pedestrian agent to be evacuated is randomly set; the step S2 comprises the following calculation formulas of panic emotion values of pedestrians to be evacuated, wherein individuals with different personality characteristics have differences in emotion perception degree and expression degree in the face of sudden external stimulus ; Wherein, the Representing the perceived emotion value of the pedestrian for the sudden scenario, Representing the number of pedestrians in the area to be evacuated, Representing the pedestrian evacuation of the total evacuation area, Represents the disaster impact area of the public area, Expressed as a scene modifier; 、 、 And The weight of the crowd, the influence degree of sudden disasters, the age and sex of pedestrians are respectively given by 4 weight assignments according to the specific actual influence of the evacuation area ; Indicating the degree of influence of gender risk perception on panic emotion, and The normal function is met; The method comprises the steps of S3, dividing emotional states according to the risk perception degree of pedestrians, wherein the total population number of people in a certain public place is set to be N, and then dividing the emotional states into 3 emotional states according to the perception degree of the pedestrians on risks, namely, a susceptible state S, an infection state I, an immune state R, S representing Susceptible and normal population, I representing Infected and panic population, R representing Recovery including temporary immune population in a non-panic state in a short time and thorough immune population in a non-panic state all the time during an event occurrence, wherein the first emotional state is a susceptibility state S, the infection state I and the immune state R, the S represents Susceptible and the normal population; step S4, determining a related time-varying parameter calculation method of the panic emotion infection of the crowd; in the step S4, a method for calculating relevant time-varying parameters of the panic emotion infection of two people is provided, which specifically comprises the following steps: first, the population is assumed to be in a relatively closed state, and inflow and outflow of the population are not considered, and the population is set to be Emotional dynamic infection rate, a is a general infective agent, Is an emotion regulating factor, b is a general immune factor, Is the immune losing rate, c is the depletion factor, and 0< <1;0< <1;0< <1, Secondly, give the emotional infection rate To obtain the emotional dynamic infection rate Is that ; Wherein, the Indicating the probability of the susceptible person at time t being infected by contact with the surrounding panic individuals; representing crowd density for a unit area; is the distance between pedestrian i and pedestrian j, and only if the distance between the two is less than the perceived radius Only when there is an emotional infection process; the emotion value of the pedestrian j is that the more the emotion is panicked, the greater the influence on other pedestrians is; indicating the outward sex of the individual, if the individual tends to be outward, the emotion is more likely to be released, and the male is taken =0.4, Female Take = 0.6; secondly, the mood regulating action of pedestrians is characterized as a mood regulating factor of pedestrians The specific expression is as follows: ; Wherein, the For the emotion recovery rate, the magnitude of the emotion recovery rate is inversely related to the emotion value of an individual, and the stronger the emotion is, the more obvious the weakening effect on emotion regulation is; Is an emotion regulating coefficient; Then, the pedestrian loses immunity to the panic emotion due to the factors such as environment or contact of other people; setting the immune loss rate To characterize the above phenomena by the following calculation method ; Wherein, the For the immune loss rate, the probability that an immune person loses panic emotional immunity due to contact with surrounding panic individuals at time t is expressed; S5, establishing a state transition relation of SIRS considering risk perception and self emotion regulation of pedestrians; and S6, determining the evacuation speed of pedestrians under emotion infection, and performing simulation.
2. 2. The method for simulating the emotion infection of an emergency public event based on an improved SIRS model as set forth in claim 1, wherein in said step S5, an improved SIRS emotion infection model is given, and the dynamic equation of the model is expressed as follows 。

Description

Emergency public event emotion infection simulation method based on improved SIRS model Technical Field The invention relates to the field of public security personnel evacuation, in particular to an emergency public event emotion infection simulation method based on an improved SIRS (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible) model. Background In recent years, with the continuous forward progress of urban development in China, the increase of indoor aggregation sites and activities increases the difficulty of emergency evacuation management in emergency. In an emergency, the perception of the accident risk by pedestrians easily causes the pedestrians to generate negative emotions such as panic, anxiety and the like, and the pedestrians rapidly spread into the crowd. In addition, in a highly panic state, the behaviors of pedestrians tend to be blind, escape routes are difficult to reasonably select, and escape accidents such as congestion, impact, trampling and the like are extremely easy to occur, so that serious life and property losses are caused. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply study the process of people feelings of the masses's infection and the influencing factors thereof in emergency evacuation, master the behavior rule of the group under the action of panic emotion, and adopt an effective intervention strategy to timely control the spread of panic emotion, which is important for improving evacuation efficiency, reducing evacuation time and guaranteeing the life and property safety of the group. At present, although some group emotion infection models based on infectious disease mechanisms are presented, the division of the crowd states by some models starts from the directions of the SIR and SIS of the disease infection models, the conversion rule in the infectious disease models is directly applied to emotion infection research of group events, the theoretical mechanism of group emotion infection under the emergency is not fully considered, and the existing simulation also has the problem of poor intuitiveness. How to reasonably apply the infectious disease mechanism to group emotion infection research under sudden events and combine the current group simulation technology to intuitively and visually model the infectious disease mechanism faces a great challenge. Therefore, the invention gives out a related time-varying parameter calculation method for determining the panic emotion infection of the crowd under the comprehensive consideration of the factors of pedestrian on risk perception and self emotion regulation, thereby improving an SIRS emotion infection model, establishing a corresponding crowd emotion infection model and a simulation method, and providing decision support for preventing and managing emergencies, especially for simulating the crowd evacuation process and making evacuation schemes after the fact. Disclosure of Invention In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides an emergency public event emotion infection simulation method based on an improved SIRS model, which fully reflects the phenomenon that pedestrians are panicked and spread in crowds when an emergency occurs, thereby realizing the real simulation of the pedestrian evacuation process and providing technical support for realizing more complete evacuation situations considering the panic of the crowds. In order to achieve the above object, the invention provides an emergency common event emotion infection simulation method based on an improved SIRS model, comprising the following steps: And S1, performing three-dimensional simulation modeling on a public place with a sudden accident by using computer simulation software. The modeling content mainly comprises 3 parts of scene modeling, pedestrian evacuation logic diagram setting and pedestrian parameter setting. The scene modeling comprises setting an internal structure of an area to be evacuated, the position of an emergency event and the position of an entrance and an exit. The pedestrian parameter setting contains basic information such as the age, shoulder width, speed, and sex of the pedestrian. The above model parameter settings all need to be set according to the actual case information to ensure the authenticity of the simulation. Step S2, a mood function for quantifying pedestrian risk perception is proposed, and a mood value of a pedestrian to be evacuated (agent) is randomly set; Individuals with different personality characteristics have differences in the degree of emotional perception and the degree of expression in the face of sudden external stimuli. Therefore, firstly, the invention discovers that the emergency evacuation emotion of the pedestrian has differences in different ages, sexes, crowd numbers, disaster degrees and different environments by researching the factors of panic emotion or behavior of the pedestrian when the sudden accident occurs in the public area. The invention thus introduces an emotional function to qua