CN-115619210-B - Electric power risk early warning method, device, medium and equipment based on primary energy

CN115619210BCN 115619210 BCN115619210 BCN 115619210BCN-115619210-B

Abstract

The application relates to a primary energy-based electric power risk early warning method which comprises the steps of obtaining coal consumption of each coal-fired power plant in the current area in the next power supply period, calculating the total amount of coal provided by the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period according to the coal consumption, calculating coal contract power generation amount of each coal-fired power plant according to the power generation coal consumption and the total amount of coal of each unit in the coal-fired power plant, calculating coal contract coverage rate according to the coal contract power generation amount of each coal-fired power plant, the power generation amount of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply period and the social power growth rate of the next power supply period, and carrying out electric power risk early warning of different levels according to the coverage rate of coal. Compared with the prior art, the method and the system have the advantages that the contract power generation coverage rate of the coal-fired power plant is related to the power dispatching risk, the coverage rate is used as an early warning index, corresponding early warning is carried out on the power dispatching main body, the power main body is prompted to carry out adjustment on aspects of coal inventory, power generation and the like, and practical application requirements are met.

Inventors

GAO HAIXIANG
ZHAO YUE
CAI QIUNA
YU JUE
SONG HUI
YU PENG

Assignees

广东电网有限责任公司
广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20220908

Claims (5)

1. An electric power risk early warning method based on primary energy is characterized by comprising the following steps: Acquiring the coal reduction amount of each coal-fired power plant in the current area in the next power supply period, and calculating the total amount of coal which can be provided by the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period according to the coal reduction amount; calculating the coal contract power generation capacity of each coal-fired power plant according to the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal; Calculating coal contract coverage rate according to the coal contract power generation capacity of each coal-fired power plant, the power generation capacity of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply period and the social power growth rate of the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period, and carrying out power risk early warning of different levels according to the coal contract coverage rate; the model for calculating the total amount of coal provided by the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period is as follows: Wherein m total,k represents the total amount of coal contracts in the k power plant, m i,k represents the coal supply amount of the ith contract in the k power plant, and n represents the number of contracts; the model for calculating the coal contract power generation capacity of each coal-fired power plant is as follows: Wherein W k represents the coal contract power generation amount of the k power plant, W k represents the electricity generation coal consumption of the k power plant, W represents the electricity generation standard coal consumption of the unit in the k power plant, q 7000 represents the low-level heating value of standard coal, and q used represents the low-level heating value of coal used for generating electricity of the unit in the k power plant; the model for calculating the coverage rate of coal contracts is as follows: Wherein p k represents the coverage rate of coal contracts, W k,history represents the generated energy of the last power supply period of the k power plant, and eta represents the social electric quantity growth rate of the next power supply period; the method for acquiring the social electricity quantity growth rate specifically comprises the following steps: Acquiring social electric quantity increase rate data of a preset power supply period, and performing stability test treatment; Judging whether the data subjected to the stability verification processing has a unit root or not; if yes, re-checking; If not, establishing an ARMA model according to the data subjected to the stability verification, and predicting the social electricity quantity increase rate on the basis of the ARMA model with the selected hysteresis order to obtain the social electricity quantity increase rate; the ARMA model is as follows: wherein eta t represents the social electricity quantity increase rate in the t-th period, c represents a constant term, Indicating hysteresis The rate of increase of the social charge in the period, Representing the error term lagging the j-phase, p representing an autoregressive model obeying the p-order, q representing a moving average model obeying the q-order, Indicating hysteresis The relative coefficient of the social charge growth rate of the period, b j , represents the relative coefficient of the error term of the lag period j.
2. The primary energy-based power risk early warning method according to claim 1, wherein the power risk early warning of different levels is performed according to the coal contract coverage rate, and specifically comprises: The method comprises the steps of comparing the coal contract coverage rate with a preset early warning grade threshold, carrying out red early warning when the coal contract coverage rate is a first early warning grade threshold, carrying out yellow early warning when the coal contract coverage rate is a second early warning grade threshold, carrying out white early warning when the coal contract coverage rate is a third early warning grade threshold, and carrying out normal condition when the coal contract coverage rate is a third early warning grade threshold, wherein the first early warning grade threshold is more than or equal to 70%, the second early warning grade threshold is more than or equal to 70% and less than 80%, the third early warning grade threshold is more than or equal to 80% and less than 90%, and the fourth early warning grade threshold is more than or equal to 90%.
3. A primary energy-based power risk early warning device, wherein the primary energy-based power risk early warning method according to claim 1 is applied, the device comprising: the coal total amount calculation module is used for obtaining the coal total amount of each coal-fired power plant in the current area in the next power supply period and calculating the total amount of coal which can be provided by the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period according to the coal total amount; The contract electric quantity calculation module is used for calculating the coal contract electric quantity of each coal-fired power plant according to the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal; The contract coverage rate calculation module is used for calculating the coal contract coverage rate according to the coal contract power generation amount of each coal-fired power plant, the power generation amount of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply period and the social power growth rate of the next power supply period, and carrying out power risk early warning of different levels according to the coal contract coverage rate.
4. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium comprises a stored computer program, wherein the computer program, when running, controls a device in which the computer readable storage medium is located to perform the primary energy based power risk warning method according to any one of claims 1 to 2.
5. An electrical power apparatus comprising a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the primary energy-based power risk warning method of any one of claims 1 to 2 when the computer program is executed.

Description

Electric power risk early warning method, device, medium and equipment based on primary energy Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of power management, in particular to a primary energy-based power risk early warning method, a primary energy-based power risk early warning device, a storage medium and power equipment. Background The energy sources are classified according to their basic forms, and can be classified into primary energy sources and secondary energy sources. Primary energy sources can be further classified into renewable energy sources (water energy, wind energy and biomass energy) and non-renewable energy sources (coal, petroleum, natural gas, oil shale, etc.). The energy which can be continuously supplemented or can be regenerated in a shorter period is called renewable energy. Energy which is formed in hundreds of millions of years and cannot be recovered in a short period is called nonrenewable energy. The coal carbon in the primary energy source is taken as an important component of power generation, and plays a vital role in the links of power generation, transmission, distribution and power supply in the power industry. However, in the current stage of power dispatching, the coal stock quantity of the power plant is mainly monitored from the angle of guaranteeing power balance, and the influence of the coal-fired power plant reduction quantity on the annual energy generation coverage rate of the power plant is ignored. Disclosure of Invention In view of the foregoing, it is necessary to provide a primary energy-based power risk early warning method, device, storage medium and power equipment capable of calculating and early warning according to the influence of the coal-fired power plant reduction on the annual power generation coverage rate of the power plant in power dispatching. The embodiment of the invention provides a primary energy-based power risk early warning method, which comprises the following steps: Acquiring the coal reduction amount of each coal-fired power plant in the current area in the next power supply period, and calculating the total amount of coal which can be provided by the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period according to the coal reduction amount; calculating the coal contract power generation capacity of each coal-fired power plant according to the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal; according to the coal contract power generation capacity of each coal-fired power plant, the power generation capacity of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply period and the social power growth rate of the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period, calculating the coal contract coverage rate, and carrying out power risk early warning of different levels according to the coal contract coverage rate. Further, a model for calculating the total amount of coal which can be provided by the coal-fired power plant in the next power supply period is as follows: where m total,k represents the total amount of coal contracts for k power plants, m i,k represents the coal supply amount for the ith contract for k power plants, and n represents the number of contracts. Further, the model for calculating the coal contract power generation amount of each coal-fired power plant is as follows: Wherein W k represents the coal contract power generation amount of the k power plant, W k represents the electricity generation coal consumption of the k power plant, W represents the electricity generation standard coal consumption of the unit in the k power plant, q 7000 represents the low-level heating value of standard coal, and q used represents the low-level heating value of coal used for the unit in the k power plant to generate electricity. Further, the model for calculating the approximate coverage rate of coal is: Wherein p k represents the coverage rate of coal co-consumption, W k,history represents the generated energy of the last power supply period of the k power plant, and eta represents the social electric quantity growth rate of the next power supply period. Further, the method for acquiring the social electricity quantity increase rate specifically comprises the following steps: Acquiring social electric quantity increase rate data of a preset power supply period, and performing stability test treatment; Judging whether the data subjected to the stability verification processing has a unit root or not; if yes, re-checking; If not, establishing an ARMA model according to the data after the stability verification processing, and predicting the social electricity quantity increase rate on the basis of the ARMA model with the selected hysteresis order to obtain the social electricity quantity increase rate. Further, the ARMA model is: wherein η t denotes the social charge growth rate in the t-th period, c denotes a constant term, η t-i denotes the so