CN-116151444-B - Wind power prediction method and system

CN116151444BCN 116151444 BCN116151444 BCN 116151444BCN-116151444-B

Abstract

The application discloses a wind power prediction method, which relates to the technical field of wind power, and is characterized in that the wind power prediction method comprises the steps of analyzing weather forecast information of an obtained internet area to determine a predicted air flow factor, collecting air flow information through a site air flow device to determine the site air flow factor, correcting a past wind power generation power curve based on composite analysis of the predicted air flow factor and the site air flow factor, and further generating a predicted power generation power curve, so that the judgment of the power generation power of wind power equipment through the weather forecast information is realized, and compared with manual judgment, the wind power generation power prediction method is more accurate.

Inventors

ZENG XIAOWEI
XIE PEIHAN
LIU MINGYE
HU WEIXIONG
WANG SIQI
LIU JIAN
ZENG ZHAOYING
LIU GUOFENG
SUN WEISHENG
JIA SONG
ZHU YABO
Gu Zhuangze
HUANG HUANLIANG
HU XUJIA
LAN XI

Assignees

华能广东汕头海上风电有限责任公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20230129

Claims (5)

1. A wind power prediction method, comprising: acquiring weather forecast information of an internet area, and determining a predicted air flow factor according to the weather forecast information of the internet area; acquiring air flow information acquired by a field air flow detection device and generating a field air flow factor; According to the past wind power generation power log, a past wind power generation power curve is established, wherein the abscissa of the past wind power generation power curve is time, and the ordinate is a power generation value; Establishing a predicted power generation power curve model, wherein the power generation power adjustment model is used for carrying out scanning analysis on the past wind power generation power curve, setting a plurality of adjustment nodes on the past wind power generation power curve, and enabling the adjustment nodes to change up and down according to the difference characteristics of the predicted air flow factor and the site air flow factor so as to generate a predicted power generation power curve; the method for generating the predicted generation power curve comprises the following steps: Establishing a power influence expression relation about the difference characteristic, wherein the power influence expression relation determines a predicted power difference value according to a flow direction angle difference value and a flow intensity difference value; Determining an up-down adjustment difference value of the adjustment node relative to a node corresponding to the past wind power generation power curve according to the predicted generation power difference value; wherein the flow direction angle difference value is the angle difference of the air flow direction expressed by the predicted air flow factor and the site flow factor; the application method of the power influence expression relation to the direction angle difference value comprises the following steps: Configuring a first power influence weight aiming at the flow direction angle difference values of the predicted air flow factor and the site air flow factor, wherein the first power influence weight is used for expressing the influence degree on the generated power under the condition of different flow direction angle difference values; Constructing a flow direction angle influence operator based on the first power influence weight and a flow direction angle difference value, and applying the flow direction angle influence operator to the power influence expression relationship; The application method of the power influence expression relation to the flow intensity difference value comprises the following steps: A second power influence weight configured for the flow intensity difference values of the predicted air flow factor and the field air flow factor, the second power influence weight being used to express a degree of influence on the generated power in the case of different flow intensity difference values; constructing a flow intensity influence operator based on the second power influence weight and a flow intensity difference value, and applying the flow intensity influence operator to the power influence expression relationship; the expression of the power influence expression relation is as follows: Wherein, the For the predicted generated power difference value, For the flow intensity influencing operator, For the flow direction angle influencing operator, For the first power impact weight, As the value of the difference in flow intensity, The second power affects the weight of the device, Is the direction angle difference value of the flow; Further comprises: Establishing an actual power generation power curve, comparing and analyzing the actual power generation power curve with a corresponding predicted power generation power curve, and determining the distortion characteristic of the predicted power generation power curve relative to the actual power generation power curve; and correcting the first power influence weights and the second power influence weights corresponding to different adjusting nodes according to the distortion characteristics.
2. A method of wind power prediction according to claim 1, characterized in that the distortion characteristics comprise: and within a preset range near the adjusting node, the area of the area between the actual power generation power curve and the predicted power generation power curve.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the method of correcting the first power impact weight and the second power impact weight comprises: Setting a first stage adjustment amplitude for the first power impact weight and a second stage adjustment amplitude for the second power impact weight; The adjustment process of the first power influence weight and the second power influence weight is divided into a plurality of times, each time of adjustment is carried out on the first power influence weight and the second power influence weight, and the adjustment amplitude corresponds to the first-stage adjustment amplitude or the second-stage adjustment amplitude respectively; Generating a first virtual prediction power generation power curve aiming at each adjustment of the first power influence weight, and calculating a first area between the first virtual prediction power generation power curve and an actual power generation power curve in a preset range near the adjustment node; Generating a second virtual prediction power generation power curve aiming at the adjustment of the second power influence weight each time, and calculating a second area between the second virtual prediction power generation power curve and the actual power generation power curve in a preset range near the adjustment node; And comparing and analyzing the first area and the second area: if the area of the first area is smaller than or equal to that of the second area, determining that the adjustment of the first power influence weight according to the adjustment amplitude of the first stage is the current adjustment; and if the area of the first area is larger than that of the second area, determining to adjust the second power influence weight to be adjusted according to the adjustment amplitude of the second stage.
4. A wind power prediction system, comprising: the internet weather forecast analysis module is used for acquiring the weather forecast information of the internet area and determining a predicted air flow factor according to the weather forecast information of the internet area; the on-site air flow analysis module is used for acquiring air flow information acquired by the on-site air flow detection device and generating on-site air flow factors; The power generation power curve generation module is used for establishing a past wind power generation power curve according to a past wind power generation power log, setting a plurality of adjustment nodes on the past wind power generation power curve, and enabling the adjustment nodes to change up and down according to the difference characteristics of the predicted air flow factor and the site air flow factor so as to generate a predicted power generation power curve; the method for generating the predicted generation power curve comprises the following steps: Establishing a power influence expression relation about the difference characteristic, wherein the power influence expression relation determines a predicted power difference value according to a flow direction angle difference value and a flow intensity difference value; Determining an up-down adjustment difference value of the adjustment node relative to a node corresponding to the past wind power generation power curve according to the predicted generation power difference value; wherein the flow direction angle difference value is the angle difference of the air flow direction expressed by the predicted air flow factor and the site flow factor; the application method of the power influence expression relation to the direction angle difference value comprises the following steps: Configuring a first power influence weight aiming at the flow direction angle difference values of the predicted air flow factor and the site air flow factor, wherein the first power influence weight is used for expressing the influence degree on the generated power under the condition of different flow direction angle difference values; Constructing a flow direction angle influence operator based on the first power influence weight and a flow direction angle difference value, and applying the flow direction angle influence operator to the power influence expression relationship; The application method of the power influence expression relation to the flow intensity difference value comprises the following steps: A second power influence weight configured for the flow intensity difference values of the predicted air flow factor and the field air flow factor, the second power influence weight being used to express a degree of influence on the generated power in the case of different flow intensity difference values; constructing a flow intensity influence operator based on the second power influence weight and a flow intensity difference value, and applying the flow intensity influence operator to the power influence expression relationship; the expression of the power influence expression relation is as follows: Wherein, the For the predicted generated power difference value, For the flow intensity influencing operator, For the flow direction angle influencing operator, For the first power impact weight, As the value of the difference in flow intensity, The second power affects the weight of the device, Is the direction angle difference value of the flow; Further comprises: Establishing an actual power generation power curve, comparing and analyzing the actual power generation power curve with a corresponding predicted power generation power curve, and determining the distortion characteristic of the predicted power generation power curve relative to the actual power generation power curve; and correcting the first power influence weights and the second power influence weights corresponding to different adjusting nodes according to the distortion characteristics.
5. The wind power prediction system according to claim 4, further comprising a display module; The display module is used for displaying the past wind power generation power curve and the predicted power generation power curve, and a plurality of adjusting nodes are correspondingly arranged on the predicted power generation power curve.

Description

Wind power prediction method and system Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of wind power, in particular to a wind power prediction method and a wind power prediction system. Background The wind energy resources in China are rich, the wind energy reserves which can be developed and utilized are about 10 hundred million kW, wherein the land wind energy reserves are about 2.53 hundred million kW (calculated by the height data of the land and 10m away from the land), and the offshore wind energy reserves which can be developed and utilized are about 7.5 hundred million kW, and the total of the wind energy reserves is 10 hundred million kW. And the national electric installation was about 5.67 million kW at the end of 2003. Wind is one of the nuisanceless energy sources. And it is inexhaustible. The wind power generation device is very suitable for coastal islands, grassland pasture areas, mountain areas and plateau areas which are lack of water, fuel and inconvenient in transportation, and can be widely used according to local conditions. Offshore wind power is an important field of renewable energy development, is an important force for promoting the progress of wind power technology and the industrial upgrading, and is an important measure for promoting the adjustment of energy structure. For a wind power generation field, in order to better coordinate construction between a power grid and a power supply containing wind power, photovoltaic and other various power generation modes, work such as power generation planning, power grid coordination scheduling and the like is guided, wind power of wind power generation equipment of the wind power generation field needs to be predicted, most of conventional prediction means are predicted by management staff according to power generation data acquired in the background, and the accuracy is relatively low. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting wind power generation power of wind power generation equipment of a power plant. The invention discloses a wind power prediction method, which comprises the following steps: Acquiring weather forecast information of an internet area, and determining a predicted air flow factor according to the weather forecast information of the internet; acquiring air flow information acquired by a field air flow detection device and generating a field air flow factor; According to the past wind power generation power log, a past wind power generation power curve is established, wherein the abscissa of the past wind power generation power curve is time, and the ordinate is a power generation value; And establishing a predicted power generation power curve model, wherein the power generation power adjustment model is used for carrying out scanning analysis on the past wind power generation power curve, setting a plurality of adjustment nodes on the past wind power generation power curve, and enabling the adjustment nodes to change up and down according to the difference characteristics of the predicted air flow factor and the site air flow factor so as to generate a predicted power generation power curve. In some embodiments of the present application, in order to determine an adjustment manner of the adjustment node to the past power generation curve, a method for generating a predicted power generation curve is further disclosed, where the method for generating a predicted power generation curve includes: Establishing a power influence expression relation about the difference characteristic, wherein the power influence expression relation determines a predicted power difference value according to a flow direction angle difference value and a flow intensity difference value; Determining an up-down adjustment difference value of the adjustment node relative to a node corresponding to the past wind power generation power curve according to the predicted generation power difference value; wherein the flow direction angle difference value is the angle difference of the air flow direction expressed by the predicted air flow factor and the site flow factor. In some embodiments of the present application, a method for applying the power impact expression relationship is further disclosed, where the method for applying the power impact expression relationship to the direction angle difference value includes: Configuring a first power influence weight aiming at the flow direction angle difference values of the predicted air flow factor and the site air flow factor, wherein the first power influence weight is used for expressing the influence degree on the generated power under the condition of different flow direction angle difference values; And constructing a flow direction angle influence operator based on the first power influence weight and the flow direction angle difference value, and applying the flow direction angle influence operator to the power influence expressio