CN-116183258-B - Method and system for quantitatively detecting local climate effect of new energy station

CN116183258BCN 116183258 BCN116183258 BCN 116183258BCN-116183258-B

Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for quantitatively detecting local climate effect of a new energy station, which are characterized in that a local climate numerical model of the new energy station is established, and numerical simulation tests are respectively carried out on the basis of the same test conditions under the two conditions of the presence of the new energy station and the absence of the new energy station to obtain test results; and determining a parameter value of the local climate effect component index relation according to a preset local climate effect component index relation, an acquired test result and real climate observation data, and determining the relation between the new energy station and local climate change according to the parameter value. The method and the system can effectively detect the local climate effect and the quantitative degree caused by the new energy station, are favorable for evaluating whether the large-scale new energy station can obviously change the local climate environment, and are favorable for reasonable planning and environmental protection of the new energy station in China.

Inventors

SONG ZONGPENG
MA ZHENQIANG
ZHANG AIHU
GAO JINGNA
WANG ZHENG
CHE JIANFENG
WANG ZHAO
ZHANG FEI
ZHAO YANQING
JIANG WENLING
HAN ZHENYONG
FENG SHUANGLEI
WANG BO
WANG SHU
Jin shuanglong
LIU XIAOLIN
HU JU
GUO YUYANG
HUA SHENBING

Assignees

中国电力科学研究院有限公司
国家电网有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20220928

Claims (4)

1. A method for quantitatively detecting the local climate effect of a new energy station, the method comprising: modeling the new energy station based on the existing local climate numerical model, and constructing a new energy station local climate numerical model; based on the local climate numerical model of the new energy station, under the same test condition, respectively carrying out a plurality of groups of numerical simulation tests based on random disturbance aiming at two situations of the new energy station and the non-new energy station to obtain corresponding test results And Wherein the same test conditions comprise the same test area, the same test time period and the same random disturbance parameters, , Is a natural number; Obtaining real climate observation data of a region for carrying out a numerical simulation test in a test period ; According to the set index relation of local climate effect components, the data are compared Test results And Performing multiple linear regression analysis to determine parameter values of the local climate effect component index relation, wherein the parameters comprise local natural climate change factors, new energy stations artificially changing factors and climate noise factors, and the expression of the local climate effect component index relation is as follows: In the formula, , , The natural climate change factor is a local natural climate change factor, a new energy station artificially changes the factor and the climate noise factor; determining the relation between the new energy station and the local climate change according to the parameter values of the local climate effect component index relation, wherein the method comprises the following steps: for the local natural climate change factor And artificial change factor of new energy station Significance T-test is performed on the values of (2) to determine And P value of (2); When (when) When the local climate change is equal to 0, determining that the artificial change information can not be obviously detected, wherein the local climate change is not related to a new energy station; When (when) Is not equal to 0, and The P value of (2) is less than 0.1, it is determined that human-made changes in the climate observations can be detected, and the detection has a 90% confidence level that the new energy station can cause local climate change.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein modeling the new energy station based on the existing local climate numerical model, constructing the new energy station local climate numerical model, comprises: constructing a local climate numerical model of the wind power plant by modifying the earth surface drag coefficient relation, the earth surface roughness coefficient and the earth surface turbulence kinetic energy in the existing local climate numerical model and/or And constructing the local climate numerical model of the photovoltaic power station by modifying the earth surface albedo, the earth surface roughness coefficient and the earth surface turbulence kinetic energy in the existing local climate numerical model.
3. A system for quantitatively detecting the local climate effect of a new energy station, the system comprising: The model building unit is used for modeling the new energy station based on the existing local climate numerical model and building the new energy station local climate numerical model; The simulation test unit is used for respectively carrying out a plurality of groups of numerical simulation tests based on random disturbance aiming at two situations of the new energy station and the non-new energy station under the same test condition based on the local climate numerical model of the new energy station to obtain corresponding test results And Wherein the same test conditions comprise the same test area, the same test time period and the same random disturbance parameters, , Is a natural number; The climate observation unit is used for acquiring real climate observation data of the region for carrying out the numerical simulation test in the test time period ; A parameter determining unit for determining the data according to the set local climate effect component index relationship Test results And Performing multiple linear regression analysis to determine parameter values of the local climate effect component index relation, wherein the parameters comprise local natural climate change factors, new energy stations artificially changing factors and climate noise factors, and the expression of the local climate effect component index relation is as follows: In the formula, , , The natural climate change factor is a local natural climate change factor, a new energy station artificially changes the factor and the climate noise factor; The quantitative detection unit is used for determining the relation between the new energy station and the local climate change according to the parameter value of the local climate effect component index relation, and comprises: a T detection subunit for generating a local natural climate change factor And artificial change factor of new energy station Significance T-test is performed on the values of (2) to determine And P value of (2); the detection result subunit is used for determining the relationship between the local climate change and the new energy station, wherein: When (when) When the local climate change is equal to 0, determining that the artificial change information can not be obviously detected, wherein the local climate change is not related to a new energy station; When (when) Is not equal to 0, and The P value of (2) is less than 0.1, it is determined that human-made changes in the climate observations can be detected, and the detection has a 90% confidence level that the new energy station can cause local climate change.
4. The system according to claim 3, wherein the model building unit models the new energy station based on the existing local climate numerical model, and builds the new energy station local climate numerical model, comprising: constructing a local climate numerical model of the wind power plant by modifying the earth surface drag coefficient relation, the earth surface roughness coefficient and the earth surface turbulence kinetic energy in the existing local climate numerical model and/or And constructing the local climate numerical model of the photovoltaic power station by modifying the earth surface albedo, the earth surface roughness coefficient and the earth surface turbulence kinetic energy in the existing local climate numerical model.

Description

Method and system for quantitatively detecting local climate effect of new energy station Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of detection, in particular to a method and a system for quantitatively detecting the local climate effect of a new energy station. Background The large-scale development and utilization of new energy are necessary ways for realizing low-carbon green development to cope with increasingly severe environmental and climate change pressure. With the increasing proportion of new energy in energy consumption, the large-scale development of new energy stations inevitably changes the surface environment and local climate conditions. If the wind power station changes the surface roughness, the height of the atmosphere boundary layer and the like, the photovoltaic power station changes the surface roughness, the surface albedo, the height of the atmosphere boundary layer and the like, and a certain change effect is further generated on the local climate. At present, research shows that after a new energy station is built, the local air temperature rises, precipitation increases and wind speed decreases. However, the local climate change of the new energy station includes 2 parts, namely local natural climate change and artificial climate change caused by the new energy station. The existing method can only carry out integral detection on the two, and can not carry out detection on the two respectively. Therefore, the quantitative degree of the local climate effect of the new energy station cannot be determined at present, and whether the local climate can be obviously changed after the large-scale new energy station is built cannot be inferred. Disclosure of Invention The invention provides a method and a system for quantitatively detecting the local climate effect of a new energy station, which aim at solving the problem that the detection of the local climate change of the new energy station in the prior art can only be used for integrally detecting the local natural climate change and the artificial climate change caused by the new energy station. According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for quantitatively detecting a local climate effect of a new energy station, the method comprising: modeling the new energy station based on the existing local climate numerical model, and constructing a new energy station local climate numerical model; Based on the new energy station local climate numerical model, under the same test condition, carrying out a plurality of groups of numerical simulation tests based on random disturbance on two situations of a new energy station and a non-new energy station respectively to obtain corresponding test results X art,i and X nat,i, wherein the same test condition comprises the same test area, the same test time period and the same random disturbance parameter are set, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to N, and N is a natural number: Obtaining real climate observation data Y i in a test period in a region where a numerical simulation test is carried out; According to the set index relation of the local climate effect components, performing multiple linear regression analysis on the data Y i, the test results X art,i and X nat,i, and determining parameter values of the index relation of the local climate effect components, wherein the parameters comprise local natural climate change factors, new energy stations artificial change factors and climate noise factors; And determining the relation between the new energy station and the local climate change according to the parameter values of the local climate effect component index relation. Optionally, modeling the new energy station based on the existing local climate numerical model, and constructing the new energy station local climate numerical model includes: constructing a local climate numerical model of the wind power plant by modifying the earth surface drag coefficient relation, the earth surface roughness coefficient and the earth surface turbulence kinetic energy in the existing local climate numerical model and/or And constructing the local climate numerical model of the photovoltaic power station by modifying the earth surface albedo, the earth surface roughness coefficient and the earth surface turbulence kinetic energy in the existing local climate numerical model. Optionally, according to the set local climate effect component index relationship, performing multiple linear regression analysis on the data Y i, the test results X art,i and X nat,i to determine a parameter value of the local climate effect component index relationship, wherein the expression of the local climate effect component index relationship is as follows: Yi＝βnatXnat,i+βartXart,i+εi wherein beta nat,βart,εi is a local natural climate change factor, a new energy station artificial change factor and a climate noise factor. Optionally, determining the relat