CN-116205353-B - Prediction method for tree species structure of arbor in subtropical region

Abstract

The invention discloses a prediction method of arbor tree species structures in subtropical areas, which comprises the following steps of 1) dividing arbor tree species into three major categories of pine, fir and broad leaf, establishing a prediction model according to the large-class volume ratio data of each tree species obtained by checking fixed samples through forest resources in the past, 2) taking two-period investigation data as modeling data, fitting with STATA software to obtain parameters, 3) substituting the actual measurement data of each sample into the prediction model for iterative computation to obtain the volume ratio value of the arbor tree species taking two-period interval as step length as the prediction value, calculating average prediction value of the tree species ratio of all sample areas, and 4) comparing the prediction value of the broad leaf volume ratio or the sum of the prediction value of the pine and fir volume ratio in the average prediction value of the tree species ratio with the critical value of needle broad-mixed forest to determine whether human intervention is required to be applied in actual forestry operation. The invention can predict the tree species structure of the arbor in the future and has the function of guiding the production and management activities of forestry.

Inventors

• JI BIYONG
• LIU JIAN
• YU KUNYONG
• WANG FAN

Assignees

• 福建农林大学
• 浙江省森林资源监测中心(浙江省林业调查规划设计院)

Dates

Publication Date

20260508

Application Date

20230221

Claims (5)

1. 1. The prediction method of the arbor tree species structure in the subtropical region is characterized by comprising the following steps of: 1) Dividing arbor tree species into three major categories of pine, fir and broad leaf, and establishing a prediction model of the following formula (1) according to the large-class timber volume ratio data of each tree species obtained in two-period investigation sample plots in the past: In the formula (1), y 10 、y 20 represents the volume ratio of the early pine and fir in two continuous surveys, y 11 、y 21 、y 31 represents the volume ratio of the late pine, fir and broad leaf as predicted values, and y 11 +y 21 +y 31 =1, and y 11 、y 21 、y 31 、y 10 、y 20 is 0 or more and 1;t 1 ,t 2 ,t 3 ,t 4 ,t 5 ,t 6 or less and is 6 parameters of a predicted model; 2) Taking two-phase investigation data of sampling overall system layout as modeling data, and using STATA software fitting to calculate a parameter t 1 ,t 2 ,t 3 ,t 4 ,t 5 ,t 6 ; 3) Substituting each sample plot measured data into a prediction model of the formula (1) for iterative calculation to obtain the timber volume ratio value of tree species of arbor and forest in future years of a plurality of step sizes taking the modeling data interval period as step sizes, and taking the timber volume ratio value as the prediction value of tree species ratio of tree species in future years of the sample plot; 4) Comparing the predicted value of the broadleaf wood volume ratio or the sum of the predicted values of the pine and fir wood volume ratios in the predicted value of the overall tree species ratio with the critical value of the needle-broad hybrid forest of 0.65, and applying human intervention measures in actual forestry operation management when the predicted value is larger than 0.65.
2. 2. The method for predicting the tree species structure of the arbor in the subtropical zone according to claim 1, wherein in the step 1), the pine species comprises one or more of masson pine, black pine, yellow mountain pine and wet pine, the fir species comprises one or more of fir, cedar, water fir, pond fir and yew, the broad leaf species comprises one or more of wood lotus, sweetgum, oak, tannin tree and camphor tree, and the timber volume is obtained by performing each tree gauge on the tree species with normal growth and chest diameter of more than or equal to 5.0cm through calculation of a unitary timber volume table model.
3. 3. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step 2), when the parameter t 1 ,t 2 ,t 3 ,t 4 ,t 5 ,t 6 is obtained, the initial values of the setting parameters t 1 ,t 2 ,t 3 ,t 4 ,t 5 ,t 6 are 1.
4. 4. The method for predicting tree species structure of arbor in subtropical areas according to claim 1, wherein in step 3), said step size is 5 years.
5. 5. The method for predicting tree seed structure of arbor in subtropical zone according to claim 1, wherein in step 4), said human intervention is artificial forestation or forest nurturing.

Description

Prediction method for tree species structure of arbor in subtropical region Technical Field The invention relates to a prediction method for a tree species structure of arbor in subtropical regions. Background Forest succession reflects the basic ecological process of terrestrial plants and reveals the change of the components of the whole forest, so that the exertion of ecological functions and the supply of wood are affected, and the forest succession is very close to the service functions of an ecological system, carbon sequestration, soil carbon accumulation, animal and plant habitats and the like. Therefore, the method for predicting and analyzing the forest succession process is beneficial to understanding the influence of natural evolution and climate change on the current and future forest species composition, and is important to predicting forest carbon sink dynamics and implementing sustainable management. Most of the current knowledge of forest succession is based on time series, i.e. over time, the forest succession follows a single, largely defined trajectory. The process of simulating and analyzing FOREST succession by using a mathematical model is widely focused, and FOREST dynamic models based on various mathematical formulas, such as JABOWA models, FOREST single-wood models, SORTIE models and the like, appear. In the forest succession process, the tree species structure change is an important expression form, reflects the reasonable degree of tree species composition condition and tree species proportion distribution of the forest ecological system, reveals the tree species structure change rule, and can provide decision basis for reasonable management of forest resources. In Norden et al "Successional dynamics in Neotropical forests are as uncertain as they are predictable. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015, 112, 8013-8018, doi:10.1073/pnas.1500403112", dynamic interactions between stem density, basal area and species density are incorporated into a forest succession model to quantify how the internal interaction components (forest interacting components) of the forest have a systematic effect on succession. In "Application of meta-population competition mechasism in forest succession simulation of Mount Lushan Chinese Journal of Ecology 2017, 36, 862-868, doi:10.13292/j.1000-4890.201703.003" of Chen et al, a Logistic model was used to model the impact of habitat and population competition on the number of arbor species in the cottage. In Zhang et al "How evergreen and deciduous trees coexist during secondary forest succession: Insights into forest restoration mechanisms in Chinese subtropical forest. Global Ecology and Conservation 2021, 25, e01418", the coexistence and competition relationship of subtropical secondary forest fallen leaves and evergreen broadleaf forest (deciduous AND EVERGREEN broadleaved forests) was studied, and it was found that the disturbed secondary forest gradually turned into a regional top vegetation type based on evergreen broadleaf forest. In addition, scholars have focused on the vertical structural changes, community structural changes, phylogenetic transformation (Phylogenetic turnover), ecological memory (ecological memory) of subtropical arbor species and have conducted intensive research. Broad-leaved forest is a top-level community for developing vegetation in subtropical forests, and has a plurality of advantages, but from the perspective of providing high-quality wood for society, needle-leaved tree species (including pine species and fir species) still need to exist, so needle-leaved hybrid forests are the current ubiquitous forms. The needle-wide hybrid forest plays an important ecological role in the aspects of conserving water sources, maintaining water and soil, improving growth rate, providing diversified forest products, reducing occurrence probability of plant diseases and insect pests, preventing fire spreading and the like, and also plays an important strategic role in constructing a novel multifunctional forest ecological system with high ecological, economic and social benefits (Zhou Qiujing and the like. The species composition and community structure of the Shennong frame natural needle-wide hybrid forest. J.ecological journal, 2019). However, the succession rules of the structural proportion relation of tree species of various arbor forests in subtropical areas still lack knowledge. The method is characterized in that a large part of forest succession researches are firstly carried out by taking a certain tree type change as a cut-in port, the future structural proportion dynamic change of regional forest tree species is rarely considered, secondly, the national forest resource continuous investigation (Continuous Forest Inventory, CFI) is taken as an investigation carried out by a plurality of countries in the world, the national forest resource continuous investigation has sufficient time span and abundant and statistically significant fi