CN-117350532-B - Risk multilink conduction method for water resource system

CN117350532BCN 117350532 BCN117350532 BCN 117350532BCN-117350532-B

Abstract

The invention discloses a water resource system risk multi-link conduction method, which mainly comprises the following steps. The method comprises the steps of collecting risk element data in a researched area and carrying out standardized processing on the risk element data, constructing a water resource system risk link by utilizing relevance among the risk elements, defining a risk conduction mechanism, namely a ① risk opening stage, describing simple mechanism of risk conduction and opening conditions of risks, ② resistance threshold action, describing resistance capability of the system in risk conduction, revealing the risk conduction mechanism and the resistance threshold action of the risk links with different structures according to the conduction characteristics of the risk links, ③ restoration threshold action, namely natural restoration force and social restoration force, enabling the risks not to exist all the time, defining a risk restoration action, ④ threshold updating calculation, namely the resistance capability and restoration capability to be improved, and updating a threshold value, and a ⑤ risk suspension stage, namely deducing conditions of risk suspension according to the risk conduction, wherein ⑥ risk strength and conduction speed relation, namely the greater risk disturbance strength and the higher risk conduction speed are. By exploring a risk link conduction mechanism, the water resource risk assessment system under complex conditions is perfected.

Inventors

Feng zhongkai
GAO HAOYU
NIU WENJING
Yao Xinru
WANG XIAYU
YANG TAO
QIN YOUWEI

Assignees

河海大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20230824

Claims (9)

1. The water resource system risk multi-link conduction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: S1, acquiring risk elements of a disaster event of a water resource system in a target area under extreme withered water, and respectively carrying out standardized processing on sample data according to the properties of the risk elements; S2, aiming at different risk elements, adopting Copula function correlation to analyze the association degree between the risk elements, and constructing a water resource system risk link according to the association degree; S3, defining the time period of the next risk element under the action of the current risk element as a risk conduction stage, and in the risk conduction stage, for different risk links, judging the state of risk conduction according to the initial disturbance value of the risk element of the water resource system, the risk element activation threshold value, the known action of natural and social restoration forces and the combination of the risk element restoration threshold value, and simultaneously updating the risk activation threshold value and the risk element restoration threshold value by combining preset conditions; The risk link comprises a single-source single-sink structure, a multi-source single-sink structure, a single-source multi-sink structure and a multi-source multi-sink structure, wherein the source risk elements of the elements are defined as father node elements and the sink risk elements are child node elements; The single-source single-sink structure is that single risk element information is transmitted to another risk element; , in the formula, 、 Respectively an initial value and a disturbance value of the risk element i; a consequence function of the disturbance value of the risk element j on the state of the risk element i; An activation threshold value of the risk element j for the risk element i; the multi-source single-sink structure is characterized in that a plurality of risk element information is transmitted to another risk element; , , in the formula, All source risk element sets for risk element i; 、 Respectively is An initial value and a disturbance value of a kth risk element; disturbance value for risk factor i A consequence function of the kth risk element state; An activation threshold for risk element i; Is that The influence degree weight of the kth risk element on the risk element i; the single-source multi-sink structure is characterized in that single risk element information is transmitted to a plurality of other risk elements, , In the formula, A risk element set is collected for all risk elements i; 、 respectively an initial value and a disturbance value of the risk element i; Is that Disturbance value of the first sink risk element; Is that The outcome function of the first risk element disturbance value with respect to the state of the risk element i; Is that An activation threshold for the first risk element; the multi-source multi-sink structure comprises a plurality of risk elements transmitted to other plurality of risk elements; , in the formula, 、 Respectively a source risk element and a sink risk element set; 、 initial values and disturbance values for the mth risk element in the hierarchy i; a disturbance value for an nth risk element in hierarchy i+1; A nonlinear function that passes source risk elements to sink risk elements; An activation threshold for an nth sink risk element; The influence weight of the nth source risk element related to the nth sink risk element on the nth sink risk element; S4, extracting the maximum disturbance value of the risk element in each risk conduction stage, calculating the instantaneous conduction time and the instantaneous conduction speed of each risk element by combining the initial disturbance value of the risk element, and then calculating and obtaining the disturbance value received by the risk element in each conduction stage; S5, calculating and obtaining stable conduction speed and corresponding conduction time of the disturbance value received by the risk element in each stage reaching the maximum disturbance value of the risk element according to the disturbance value received by the risk element in each conduction stage and the maximum disturbance value of the risk element, and finally calculating total conduction time of the risk element.
2. The method for conducting risk multiple links of a water resource system according to claim 1, wherein step S1 is specifically: (1) Aiming at the elements which are stable in risk elements and have the direct proportion relation between the index value and the risk, a Min-Max standardization method is adopted, and the following formula is adopted: ; (2) Aiming at the elements which are stable in risk elements and have the inverse relation between the index value and the risk, a Min-Max standardization method is adopted, and the following formula is adopted: ; in the formula, Is the value of the risk element; Is the maximum value of the risk factors; Is the minimum value of the risk factors; is the risk factor value after normalization; (3) For unstable elements in the risk elements, a Z-score normalization method is adopted, and the following formula is adopted: ; in the formula, Is the value of the risk element; is the risk factor value after normalization; And The mean and variance of the risk factors respectively, Is a standard normal distribution function.
3. The method for conducting risk multiple links of a water resource system according to claim 1, wherein step S2 is specifically: the gummel Copula function was used as follows: , , , Wherein: 、 Respectively the risk factor values after normalization; And 、 And Respectively are variables 、 Is a distribution function of (a); for the constructed gummel Copula function, As one of the parameters of the device, Rank correlation coefficients that are variables; Introducing confidence levels for element i and element j The following formula is satisfied: , then, it is determined that the risk element i and the risk element j have correlation, and a chain structure between the risk element i and the risk element j is established.
4. A method for conducting risk multiple links in a water resource system according to claim 3, wherein in step S3, in the risk conducting stage, the next risk element under the action of the current risk element is specifically: , in the formula, 、 A disturbance value for risk element i and risk element j; An initial value for the ith risk element; is a consequence function of the perturbation value of risk element j with respect to the state of risk element i.
5. The method for conducting multiple risk links in a water resource system according to claim 4, wherein in step S3, when the risk conducting state is determined, the risk element is activated when the disturbance value of the current risk element exceeds the risk element activation threshold, the risk element state is changed, when the disturbance value of the current risk element is smaller than the risk element activation threshold, the risk element state is not changed, the risk conducting is stopped, if all the risk elements are activated, the risk conducting is stopped when all the risk element states in the whole risk network are recovered to normal, and if all the risk elements are not activated, the risk conducting is stopped when the disturbance value at the end of the risk link fails to cause the next risk element state to change, namely: , in the formula, A risk disturbance value for an activated risk link end; An activation threshold for its next risk element.
6. The method for conducting risk multiple links in a water resource system according to claim 5, wherein when the state value of a risk element is reduced to the recovery threshold value in determining the risk conducting state, the risk conducting is stopped, namely, for the ith risk element: , wherein t is a time period value; the disturbance value of the risk element i in the t period; an increasing function of the repair value of the ith risk element with respect to time for natural or social repair forces; is the recovery threshold for the ith risk element.
7. The method for conducting multiple risk links in a water resource system according to claim 6, wherein in step S3, the risk activation threshold and the risk factor recovery threshold are updated in combination with preset conditions, specifically, the resistance and recovery of risk are improved based on objective factors, namely, the activation threshold is reduced and the risk recovery threshold is increased, and the following formula is adopted: , , wherein t is a time period value; a risk activation threshold for risk element i; a risk recovery threshold value for risk element i; 、 to adjust parameters of , 。
8. The water resource system risk multilink transmission method according to claim 7, wherein the step S4 comprises the sub-steps of: s401, extracting the maximum disturbance value of each risk element And risk conduction time at maximum disturbance value Calculating the instantaneous conduction time of each risk element by combining the initial disturbance value of the risk element as follows: , , , in the formula, An initial disturbance value for the ith risk element; for the instantaneous conduction time to the i +1 st risk element at an i-th risk element perturbation value of R i , As a function of the variation relationship of t and R, Represents the instantaneous conduction velocity to the i+1th risk element at the i-th risk element disturbance value R i , A conduction disturbance value representing an ith risk element at a jth stage; s402 according to Inversely related to make , According to the risk conduction link structure, when the state of the environment changes, the risk factors are as follows Is (1) instantaneous risk conduction time is Then: , in the formula, As a risk element To the direction of Risk conduction time of (2); s403, according to For risk factors The method comprises the following steps: , , in the formula, As a risk element A disturbance value at a certain moment; 、 risk factors respectively 、 A maximum risk disturbance value of (a), i.e., a risk disturbance upper limit; At the disturbance intensity of Time risk factor To risk elements The instantaneous speed of conduction; As a risk element At a disturbance intensity of Time-oriented dangerous element The time required for conduction; 、 For risk factors Parameters of (2); s404, calculating disturbance value received by risk element, namely instantaneous speed At 0- The steps are as follows: , in the formula, As a risk element At 0- Disturbance values received by the stage.
9. The method for conducting risk multiple links of water resource system according to claim 8, wherein step S5 is performed by - Stage, risk element Reaching the upper limit of risk disturbance At this time, risk factors To risk elements The conduction speed is stabilized as : , Risk factors At the position of - The disturbance value received in the stage is as follows: , In the formula, As a risk element At the position of - Disturbance value received in stage, at this time, risk intensity is fixed, speed is high Certain of the components, such as the components, ; Finally, obtaining the risk factors Risk conduction total time of (2) The method comprises the following steps: , 。

Description

Risk multilink conduction method for water resource system Technical Field The invention belongs to the field of hydrologic risk analysis, and particularly relates to a method for conducting multiple links of a water resource system risk. Background Under the compound influence of global climate change and human activities, extreme withered water events in China frequently occur, and the risk of hydrologic weather and social and economic disasters is aggravated. Risk assessment is the most effective scientific basis for risk prevention and control, however, risk is not a complete one. Under the coupling of multiple systems such as hydrology, society, economy and the like, risk analysis is focused not only on indexes and grades of risk assessment, but also on changes of risks, in particular association relations among risk elements. How to build a mathematical model between risk elements to describe a dynamic conduction mechanism of risk is a problem to be solved in risk analysis. Risk conduction is a risk dynamic change process based on an energy release theory, and mainly considers risks as changes of links such as energy generation, release, conduction, suspension and the like in a risk event, so that the risk is extended to evaluation of the risk on time-space evolution. In the face of the relation between risk events caused by extremely dead water in systems such as weather, hydrology and socioeconomic systems, a risk conduction model is established, and a conduction mechanism of risks in a water resource system is explored. Disclosure of Invention Aiming at the relation between risk events caused by extremely low water in systems such as weather, hydrology, socioeconomic performance and the like, the invention provides a method and a system for conducting multiple links of risks in a water resource system, aiming at the problem of researching a conducting mechanism of risks in the water resource system, so as to perfect a risk assessment technology of the extremely low water resource system and provide theoretical support for the establishment of risk prevention and control measures. In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides the following technical scheme that the method for conducting the risk multilink of the water resource system comprises the following steps: S1, acquiring risk elements of a disaster event of a water resource system in a target area under extreme withered water, and respectively carrying out standardized processing on sample data according to the properties of the risk elements; S2, aiming at different risk elements, adopting Copula function correlation to analyze the association degree between the risk elements, and constructing a water resource system risk link according to the association degree; S3, defining the time period of the next risk element under the action of the current risk element as a risk conduction stage, and in the risk conduction stage, for different risk links, judging the state of risk conduction according to the initial disturbance value of the risk element of the water resource system, the risk element activation threshold value, the known action of natural and social restoration forces and the combination of the risk element restoration threshold value, and simultaneously updating the risk activation threshold value and the risk element restoration threshold value by combining preset conditions; S4, extracting the maximum disturbance value of the risk element in each risk conduction stage, calculating the instantaneous conduction time and the instantaneous conduction speed of each risk element by combining the initial disturbance value of the risk element, and then calculating and obtaining the disturbance value received by the risk element in each conduction stage; S5, calculating and obtaining stable conduction speed and corresponding conduction time of the disturbance value received by the risk element in each stage reaching the maximum disturbance value of the risk element according to the disturbance value received by the risk element in each conduction stage and the maximum disturbance value of the risk element, and finally calculating total conduction time of the risk element. Further, the step S1 specifically includes: (1) Aiming at the elements which are stable in risk elements and have the direct proportion relation between the index value and the risk, a Min-Max standardization method is adopted, and the following formula is adopted: (2) Aiming at the elements which are stable in risk elements and have the inverse relation between the index value and the risk, a Min-Max standardization method is adopted, and the following formula is adopted: Wherein x is the value of the risk element, x max is the maximum value of the risk element, x min is the minimum value of the risk element, and x * is the value of the risk element after normalization; (3) For unstable elements in the risk elements, a Z-score normalization method is ad