CN-120975504-B - Regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform and method considering climate change

CN120975504BCN 120975504 BCN120975504 BCN 120975504BCN-120975504-B

Abstract

The application provides a regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform and a regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling method considering climate change, and relates to the technical field of water resource scheduling, wherein the platform comprises a module construction unit for constructing a multi-layer water resource sampling module; the system comprises an influence analysis unit, a coupling analysis unit, a water resource scheduling unit and a water resource control unit, wherein the influence analysis unit is used for introducing real-time climate monitoring data, extracting a plurality of groups of climate influence factors and analyzing initial water resource monitoring data, the coupling analysis unit is used for constructing a three-layer water resource coupling model and analyzing updated water resource monitoring data, and the water resource scheduling unit is used for making a water resource scheduling decision for a target area according to the water resource coupling monitoring data. The application can solve the technical problems that the prior art only carries out sampling monitoring on confined aquifers, has insufficient space representativeness and unknown error, and is easy to produce misjudgment on the water resource condition, thereby influencing the water resource scheduling decision risk.

Inventors

CHEN FEI
Ma Ruoqi
YANG YAN
SHI WENLONG
TANG SHINAN

Assignees

水利部水利水电规划设计总院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20250826

Claims (8)

1. Regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform considering climate change is characterized by comprising: The system comprises a module construction unit, a multi-layer water resource sampling module and a control unit, wherein the module construction unit is used for constructing a multi-layer water resource sampling module of a target area, and the multi-layer water resource sampling module comprises a surface water layer water resource sampling unit, a confined water layer water resource sampling unit and an underground water layer water resource sampling unit; The influence analysis unit is used for introducing the real-time climate monitoring data, extracting a plurality of groups of climate influence factors of the real-time climate monitoring data, analyzing a plurality of groups of initial water resource monitoring data of the multi-layer water resource sampling module by utilizing the plurality of groups of climate influence factors, and outputting a plurality of groups of updated water resource monitoring data; The coupling analysis unit is used for constructing a three-layer water resource coupling model according to the multi-layer water resource sampling module, calling the three-layer water resource coupling model to analyze the plurality of groups of updated water resource monitoring data and outputting the water resource coupling monitoring data of the confined aquifer, wherein the three-layer water resource coupling model comprises a surface water layer-confined aquifer coupling model and an underground water layer-confined aquifer coupling model; the water resource scheduling unit is used for making a water resource scheduling decision for the target area according to the water resource coupling monitoring data; The influence analysis unit includes: the influence factor determining subunit is used for determining the plurality of groups of climate influence factors including surface water layer climate influence factors, confined aquifer climate influence factors and underground water layer climate influence factors; The influence model determining subunit is used for respectively constructing a plurality of climate response factor influence models according to the surface water layer climate influence factors, the confined water layer climate influence factors and the groundwater layer climate influence factors, wherein the plurality of climate response factor influence models comprise a surface water layer-climate response factor influence model, a confined water layer-climate response factor influence model and a groundwater layer-climate response factor influence model; The data updating subunit is used for respectively inputting a plurality of groups of initial water resource monitoring data of the multi-layer water resource sampling module into the surface water layer-climate response factor influence model, the confined water layer-climate response factor influence model and the underground water layer-climate response factor influence model to carry out Bayesian dynamic fusion to obtain a plurality of groups of updated water resource monitoring data; Constructing a three-layer water resource coupling model according to the multi-layer water resource sampling module, wherein the three-layer water resource coupling model comprises a surface water layer-confined aquifer coupling model and an underground water layer-confined aquifer coupling model; the aquifer-confined aquifer coupling model reflects the hysteresis influence of aquifer water resource change on confined aquifer water resource change, and the aquifer-confined aquifer coupling model reflects the replenishment influence of aquifer water resource change on confined aquifer water resource change.
2. The regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform considering climate change according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of climate response factor influence models are obtained by performing supervisory training on a plurality of sets of historical water resource monitoring data; The aquifer-climate response factor influence model is obtained through aquifer evaporation-precipitation balance training through aquifer climate influence factors and aquifer historical water resource monitoring data, the aquifer-climate response factor influence model is obtained through infiltration response hysteresis model training based on the aquifer climate influence factors and the aquifer historical water resource monitoring data, and the aquifer-climate response factor influence model is obtained through slow release coefficient calculation model training based on the aquifer climate influence factors and the aquifer historical water resource monitoring data.
3. The climate change aware regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform of claim 2, wherein the data updating subunit comprises: The distribution construction channel is used for constructing prior probability distribution and observation likelihood distribution, wherein the prior probability distribution is obtained through definition of a plurality of groups of historical water resource prediction data, and the observation likelihood distribution is obtained through definition of a plurality of groups of historical water resource monitoring data; The data input channel is used for respectively inputting a plurality of groups of initial water resource monitoring data of the multi-layer water resource sampling module into the surface water layer-climate response factor influence model, the confined water layer-climate response factor influence model and the underground water layer-climate response factor influence model to obtain a plurality of groups of water resource prediction data; And the Bayesian fusion channel is used for carrying out Bayesian fusion on the plurality of groups of water resource prediction data and the plurality of groups of initial water resource monitoring data according to the prior probability distribution and the observation likelihood distribution to obtain a plurality of groups of updated water resource monitoring data under posterior probability distribution.
4. The regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform considering climate change as claimed in claim 1, wherein the coupling analysis unit comprises: The confined sample data acquisition subunit is used for acquiring a confined water layer-confined aquifer water resource monitoring data sample according to the confined water layer water resource sampling unit and the confined water layer water resource sampling unit; the hysteresis identification subunit is used for carrying out hysteresis identification on the water resource of the water-bearing stratum water resource monitoring data sample of the surface water layer and the confined water layer to obtain a hysteresis characteristic vector; And the Bayesian regression training subunit is used for constructing a first time sequence prediction model, and carrying out Bayesian regression training on the first time sequence prediction model based on the hysteresis feature vector to obtain a surface water layer-confined aquifer coupling model trained to be converged.
5. The regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform considering climate change as claimed in claim 1, wherein the coupling analysis unit comprises: The underground water sample data acquisition subunit is used for acquiring a confined aquifer-underground water resource monitoring data sample according to the confined aquifer water resource sampling unit and the underground water layer water resource sampling unit; The connectivity identification subunit is used for carrying out water resource connectivity identification on the confined aquifer-groundwater layer water resource monitoring data sample to obtain a replenishment feature vector; And the regression training subunit is used for constructing a second time sequence prediction model, and carrying out variable weight weighting regression training on the second time sequence prediction model based on the replenishment feature vector to obtain the underground water layer-confined aquifer coupling model trained to be converged.
6. The regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform considering climate change as claimed in claim 1, wherein the impact analysis unit further comprises: The sampling scale parameter acquisition subunit is used for acquiring the sampling scale parameters of the surface water layer water resource sampling unit, the confined aquifer water resource sampling unit and the underground water layer water resource sampling unit; And the climate monitoring scale processing subunit is used for performing climate monitoring scale processing according to the sampling scale parameters to obtain a plurality of groups of climate influence factors under a plurality of scales.
7. The climate change considered regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform of claim 1, wherein the water resource scheduling unit comprises: An index obtaining subunit, configured to obtain a preset water resource requirement index of the target area; and the threshold determining subunit is used for analyzing the water resource coupling monitoring data according to the preset water resource demand index, outputting a water resource scheduling index threshold, uploading the water resource scheduling index threshold to a water resource scheduling decision system for analysis, and issuing a real-time water resource scheduling index.
8. A method for monitoring and scheduling regional groundwater resources in consideration of climate change, which is characterized by being executed by the regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform in consideration of climate change according to any one of claims 1 to 7, and comprises the following steps: Constructing a multi-layer water resource sampling module of a target area, wherein the multi-layer water resource sampling module comprises a surface water layer water resource sampling unit, a confined aquifer water resource sampling unit and an underground water layer water resource sampling unit; Introducing real-time climate monitoring data, extracting a plurality of groups of climate influence factors of the real-time climate monitoring data, analyzing a plurality of groups of initial water resource monitoring data of the multi-layer water resource sampling module by utilizing the plurality of groups of climate influence factors, and outputting a plurality of groups of updated water resource monitoring data; Constructing a three-layer water resource coupling model according to the multi-layer water resource sampling module, calling the three-layer water resource coupling model to analyze the multiple groups of updated water resource monitoring data, and outputting the water resource coupling monitoring data of the confined aquifer, wherein the three-layer water resource coupling model comprises a surface water layer-confined aquifer coupling model and an underground water layer-confined aquifer coupling model; and carrying out water resource scheduling decision on the target area according to the water resource coupling monitoring data.

Description

Regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform and method considering climate change Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of water resource scheduling, in particular to a regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform and method considering climate change. Background The existing underground water resource monitoring method is generally used for sampling monitoring only for confined aquifers. The confined aquifer plays an important role in regulating groundwater, but it is difficult to comprehensively reflect the overall condition of groundwater resources. The underground water resource system has a complex multi-layer hydrogeologic structure and generally comprises a plurality of mutually related water layers such as surface water, shallow underground water, confined aquifers and the like, complex and dynamic hydraulic connection and material exchange exist between the water layers, and the interaction between different water layers and the influence of the interaction on the whole water resource amount are easily ignored by single-layer monitoring, so that the accuracy of monitoring and scheduling of the underground water resource is influenced. The dynamic change of the underground water is the result of the comprehensive action of various factors, is directly influenced by climate factors such as precipitation, air temperature, evaporation and the like, is closely related to the hydrogeologic structure of the area, and causes unknown monitoring errors, so that the monitoring data acquired through limited sampling points are difficult to accurately reflect the real state of the whole aquifer and even the underground water system, and the risk of water resource scheduling decision is high. In summary, in the prior art, since only the confined aquifer is sampled and monitored, the space representativeness is insufficient and the error is unknown, and the misjudgment on the water resource condition is easy to occur, thereby influencing the water resource scheduling decision risk. Disclosure of Invention The application aims to provide a regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform and method considering climate change, which are used for solving the technical problems that in the prior art, because sampling monitoring is only carried out on confined aquifers, space representativeness is insufficient, errors are unknown, misjudgment on water resource conditions is easy to generate, and therefore, the water resource scheduling decision risk is influenced. In view of the above problems, the application provides a regional groundwater resource monitoring and scheduling platform and method considering climate change. The application provides a regional groundwater resource monitoring and dispatching platform considering climate change, which comprises a module construction unit, a coupling analysis unit and a water resource dispatching unit, wherein the module construction unit is used for constructing a multi-layer water resource sampling module of a target region, the multi-layer water resource sampling module comprises a water-bearing layer water resource sampling unit, a confined aquifer water resource sampling unit and a groundwater layer water resource sampling unit, the influence analysis unit is used for introducing real-time climate monitoring data, extracting multiple groups of climate influence factors of the real-time climate monitoring data, analyzing multiple groups of initial water resource monitoring data of the multi-layer water resource sampling module by utilizing the multiple groups of climate influence factors and outputting multiple groups of updated water resource monitoring data, the coupling analysis unit is used for constructing a three-layer water resource coupling model according to the multi-layer water resource sampling module, calling the three-layer water resource coupling model to analyze the multiple groups of updated water resource monitoring data and outputting the confined aquifer water resource coupling monitoring data, and the three-layer water resource coupling model comprises a water-bearing layer coupling model and a groundwater layer-confined aquifer coupling model, and the water resource dispatching unit is used for carrying out water resource monitoring and dispatching on the target water resource according to the water resource coupling. The system comprises a multi-layer water resource sampling module, an influence factor determining subunit, a data updating subunit and a data updating subunit, wherein the multi-layer water resource sampling module is used for sampling the water resource monitoring data of the multi-layer water resource sampling module, the influence factor determining subunit is used for determining a plurality of groups of climate influence factors including surface water layer climate influence factors, confined water layer climate influence factors and underground