CN-121010282-B - Rural building group flood disaster loss assessment method and system

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of building group flood influence analysis, and provides a method and a system for evaluating the flood disaster loss of a rural building group, aiming at the problem that the accuracy of an evaluation result is low due to the fact that uncertainty factors in the loss evaluation process are not fully considered in the existing building flood loss function; comparing the submerged depth map with SAR image water body extraction data and social media data to obtain a flood simulation result, combining building classification information and the maximum submerged depth map to obtain submerged depth of each building, calculating component information of the building, analyzing building flood vulnerability according to the component information and the submerged depth to determine total loss of all buildings, and evaluating the effect of the current disaster prevention measures according to the total loss under different disaster prevention measures. The invention can provide scientific basis for building flood loss assessment and disaster prevention decision.

Inventors

• LIU XIGUANG
• LIU JUN
• FAN LI
• MIAO YUANYAO
• WANG PENGGANG
• ZHANG YICHAO
• XU ZHIZHEN
• Hou Huiqiang
• MIAO TINGTING
• Hao Caimeng
• ZHANG LIJUN
• LIU BAOXUN
• NIU DITAO
• REN RUI
• LI SHUGUANG
• GENG QINGJUN
• Lv yao

Assignees

• 中铁二十局集团第四工程有限公司
• 西安建筑科技大学
• 中铁二十局集团有限公司

Dates

Publication Date

20260512

Application Date

20251028

Claims (9)

1. 1. A method for evaluating flood damage to a rural building group, the method comprising: Acquiring multi-source data of an area where a rural building group to be analyzed is located, and simulating a dynamic evolution process of a flood disaster by adopting a hydrodynamic model to obtain a submerged depth map and a maximum submerged depth map; Comparing the submerged water depth map with SAR image water body extraction data and social media data, and verifying a hydrodynamic model to obtain a flood simulation result; Extracting building contour data of an area where a rural building group to be analyzed is located, classifying the buildings, and combining building classification information with a maximum flooding depth map through a GIS to obtain the flooding depth of each building in the building group; collecting structural features of various typical buildings, and calculating component information of the buildings; analyzing building flood vulnerability according to component information and flooding depth, and determining total loss of all buildings; According to the total loss under different disaster prevention measures, the effect of the current disaster prevention measures is evaluated; wherein, according to component information and submergence degree of depth, analyze building flood vulnerability, confirm the total loss of all buildings, include: Based on Monte Carlo simulation, determining failure probability of various building components under different water depths, vulnerability functions of various buildings and overrun probability of various damage states under different submerged depths, and obtaining vulnerability information of various buildings under various damage states; Determining a first change relationship of total loss and submergence depth for each type of building based on vulnerability analysis of building components; determining a second change relation between the total loss of various buildings and the flood depth by utilizing vulnerability information; Determining total loss of building groups in the area where the rural building groups to be analyzed are located according to the submerging depth of various buildings in the building groups and the first change relation, and verifying the total loss by utilizing the second change relation; The calculation formula of the total loss is as follows: ; Wherein, the Representing the total loss of all flood affected buildings in the investigation region, Indicating the type of building to which the building is to be put, Indicating the water depth level of the water, Representation of Stage under water depth Flood disaster loss rate of the building-like structure, Representation of Stage underwater The number of affected buildings in the class of buildings, Represent the first Similar to building in The cost of the total placement of the level water depth.
2. 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtaining multi-source data of the area to be analyzed, simulating a dynamic evolution process of the flood disaster by using a hydrodynamic model, obtaining a submerged depth map and a maximum submerged depth map, comprises: Acquiring geographic information data, historical rainfall data and land utilization data of an area where a rural building group to be analyzed is located; And constructing a hydrodynamic model based on the acquired data, simulating the dynamic evolution process of the flood disaster, and outputting a submerged depth map and a maximum submerged depth map in a simulated rainfall period.
3. 3. The method of claim 2, wherein comparing the submerged water depth map with the SAR image water extraction data and the social media data, and validating the hydrodynamic model to obtain the flood simulation result comprises: respectively extracting SAR images before, during and after the disaster of the area where the rural building group to be analyzed is located to obtain water body extraction results before, during and after the disaster; comparing the water body extraction results before, during and after the disaster with the submerged depth map before, during and after the disaster, and verifying the accuracy of the submerged range; The method comprises the steps of crawling social media data by utilizing a web crawler, and extracting water depth information of water accumulation points; Determining the flood submerged depth of a typical ponding point in a simulated rainfall period according to a submerged water depth map, comparing the flood submerged depth with extracted water depth information, and verifying the accuracy of the submerged depth; And taking the validated submerged depth map and the maximum submerged depth map as flood simulation results.
4. 4. The method of claim 3, wherein the extracting building contour data of the area where the rural building group to be analyzed is located and classifying the buildings, combining the building classification information with the maximum flooding depth map through the GIS, and obtaining the flooding depth of each building in the building group includes: Extracting building contour data of an area where a rural building group to be analyzed is located, corresponding each obtained building contour data to one building block, and distributing one building type for each building block; Determining the position distribution of each type of building according to the building type; building contour information for building blocks of the assigned building type is combined with a maximum flood depth map to determine a flood depth for each building block.
5. 5. The method of claim 4, wherein determining a first change relationship of total loss to flood depth for each type of building based on vulnerability analysis of building components comprises: Acquiring replacement cost data for each building element; generating random substitution costs of substitution cost data based on the monte carlo simulation; According to the random substitution cost, determining random losses of each building component under different flood depths, and summing the random losses of all building components to obtain the random losses of the whole building under different flood depths; a first variation relationship of total loss of each type of building to flood depth is determined based on the mean and variance of random loss of each building element of each type of building.
6. 6. The method of claim 5, wherein determining a second variation relationship of total loss of each type of building with flood depth using vulnerability information comprises: Accumulating the product of the probability of each damaged state and the corresponding repair or reset cost of the damaged state according to the vulnerability information of various buildings; And calculating the average loss of various buildings under different water depths according to the accumulated results, and determining a second change relation between the total loss of various buildings and the flood depth.
7. 7. The method of claim 6, wherein determining the total loss of building groups in the area of the rural building group to be analyzed based on the first variation relationship comprises: Dividing the total range of the maximum submerging depth of various buildings in the building group into a plurality of subintervals, and determining the number of affected buildings in each subinterval; According to the first change relation, determining flood disaster loss rates of corresponding buildings under the average submerging depths of different subintervals; The total loss of all buildings is determined based on the flood disaster damage rate of the buildings, the number of affected buildings and the total weight cost of each type of building at different water depths.
8. 8. A rural building group flood damage assessment system, wherein the method of claim 1 is performed, and wherein the system comprises: the simulation module is used for acquiring multi-source data of an area where the rural building group to be analyzed is located, and simulating a dynamic evolution process of the flood disaster by adopting a hydrodynamic model to obtain a submerged depth map and a maximum submerged depth map; The flooding analysis module is used for extracting building contour data of the area where the rural building group to be analyzed is located, classifying the buildings, and combining the building classification information with the maximum flooding depth map through the GIS to obtain the flooding depth of each building in the building group; the component information calculation module is used for collecting structural features of various typical buildings and calculating component information of the buildings; the loss analysis module is used for analyzing the building flood vulnerability according to the component information and the flooding depth and determining the total loss of all the buildings; and the evaluation module is used for evaluating the effect of the current disaster prevention measures according to the total loss under different disaster prevention measures.
9. 9. The system of claim 8, further comprising a verification module for comparing the inundated water depth map with the SAR image water extraction data and the social media data, and verifying the hydrodynamic model to obtain a flood simulation result.

Description

Rural building group flood disaster loss assessment method and system Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of building group flood influence analysis, in particular to a rural building group flood disaster loss assessment method and system. Background Rural areas exhibit a high sensitivity to flood disasters. Therefore, the method for evaluating the economic loss of the flood disasters of the rural building group based on probability analysis and the evaluation system for the effectiveness of disaster prevention decision are constructed, and the method has important significance for making effective disaster relief measures and post-disaster recovery strategies in advance. However, most current studies focus mainly on urban areas and rely heavily on empirical and field survey data in vulnerability studies and evaluate building flood losses by establishing a phase loss function. Such phase loss functions are generally only applicable to specific events and do not adequately account for uncertainty factors in the loss evaluation process. In addition, the existing research does not realize the deep fusion of flood simulation and building data, so that flood losses of various buildings in a certain area are difficult to accurately calculate, and the effectiveness of various disaster prevention measures cannot be comprehensively estimated from the aspect of building economic losses. Disclosure of Invention In view of the above problems, the embodiment of the application provides a method and a system for evaluating flood disaster damage of rural building groups, which aim to quantitatively analyze building flood vulnerability and damage under extreme storm disaster situations, thereby providing scientific basis for evaluating building flood damage and effectiveness of disaster prevention decision. In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for evaluating flood disaster damage of a rural building group based on probability, where the method includes: Acquiring multi-source data of an area where a rural building group to be analyzed is located, and simulating a dynamic evolution process of a flood disaster by adopting a hydrodynamic model to obtain a submerged depth map and a maximum submerged depth map; Comparing the submerged water depth map with SAR image water body extraction data and social media data, and verifying a hydrodynamic model to obtain a flood simulation result; Extracting building contour data of an area where a rural building group to be analyzed is located, classifying the buildings, and combining building classification information with a maximum flooding depth map through a GIS to obtain the flooding depth of each building in the building group; collecting structural features of various typical buildings, and calculating component information of the buildings; analyzing building flood vulnerability according to component information and flooding depth, and determining total loss of all buildings; And evaluating the effect of the current disaster prevention measures according to the total loss under different disaster prevention measures. Optionally, the obtaining multi-source data of the area to be analyzed, simulating a dynamic evolution process of the flood disaster by adopting a hydrodynamic model to obtain a submerged depth map and a maximum submerged depth map, including: Acquiring geographic information data, historical rainfall data and land utilization data of an area where a rural building group to be analyzed is located; And constructing a hydrodynamic model based on the acquired data, simulating the dynamic evolution process of the flood disaster, and outputting a submerged depth map and a maximum submerged depth map in a simulated rainfall period. Optionally, comparing the submerged water depth map with the SAR image water body extraction data and the social media data, and verifying the hydrodynamic model to obtain a flood simulation result, including: respectively extracting SAR images before, during and after the disaster of the area where the rural building group to be analyzed is located to obtain water body extraction results before, during and after the disaster; comparing the water body extraction results before, during and after the disaster with the submerged depth map before, during and after the disaster, and verifying the accuracy of the submerged range; The method comprises the steps of crawling social media data by utilizing a web crawler, and extracting water depth information of water accumulation points; Determining the flood submerged depth of a typical ponding point in a simulated rainfall period according to a submerged water depth map, comparing the flood submerged depth with extracted water depth information, and verifying the accuracy of the submerged depth; And taking the validated submerged depth map and the maximum submerged depth map as flood simulation results. Optionally, the extracting build