CN-121768148-B - Flood early warning method based on drainage pipe network health state and toughness evaluation in stormy weather

CN121768148BCN 121768148 BCN121768148 BCN 121768148BCN-121768148-B

Abstract

The application discloses a flood early warning method based on the evaluation of the health state and toughness of a drainage pipe network in stormwater, which relates to the technical field of urban flood prevention, by constructing a pressure-state-response three-dimensional index system and combining an entropy weight method and a comprehensive evaluation method, the limitation of single-dimension evaluation is avoided, and flood restoration force evaluation is more objective and accurate. By means of drainage pipe network health state investigation and hydrodynamic model dynamic correction, waterlogging and flooding prediction accuracy is greatly improved, and the problem of disconnection between a traditional model and actual working conditions is solved. The method can accurately position the high-risk fragile region, provide data support for optimized configuration and targeted transformation of flood control resources, promote the flood control work to be converted from experience drive to data drive, reduce resource mismatching and redundancy waste through high-precision early warning and post-disaster recovery quantitative analysis, improve flood control efficiency and post-disaster recovery capacity, provide powerful support for planning and construction of tough cities, and effectively reduce life and property loss caused by flood disasters.

Inventors

LU WEI
LIANG BINGCHEN
MENG LINGXIAO
YUAN YUAN
XU YINGDONG
HE ZIHAN
JING WENLIN

Assignees

中国海洋大学
中国建设基础设施有限公司
中国建筑股份有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20260305

Claims (6)

1. A flood early warning method based on evaluation of the health state and toughness of a drainage pipe network in stormwater weather is characterized by comprising the following steps: Determining a plurality of key index elements from three dimensions of pressure-state-response to construct an urban flood toughness assessment index system to evaluate urban flood toughness; Establishing a hydrodynamic force numerical simulation basic model for a research area, carrying out data normalization processing on key index elements collected in the research area, calculating the weight occupied by each index element by adopting an entropy weight method, calculating the flood disaster recovery power index of the research area according to a comprehensive evaluation method, and dividing the regional toughness grade; the establishing of the hydrodynamic force numerical simulation basic model for the research area comprises the following steps: carrying out statistical treatment on a rainwater pipe network data diagram of a research area, removing rainwater wells and rainwater branch pipes with pipe diameters lower than a preset standard in a road greening isolation belt, reserving a main rainwater pipeline, checking the topological relation of the pipe network according to a drawing, correcting reverse, missing, reverse slope and rainwater and sewage mixed connection errors of the pipeline, and ensuring the rationality of a pipe network model; linear interpolation encryption processing is carried out on the original elevation data points, an irregular TIN model is generated, and the ground dem model reflects regional topography fluctuation and a converging path; Processing and analyzing land utilization types, and respectively distributing surface runoff coefficients to accord with actual surface runoff conditions; 2D meshing is carried out on the simulation area, and the meshing resolution is adjusted according to the simulation precision requirement so as to accurately represent the surface runoff; calculating rainfall intensity change time sequence according to actual measured rainfall data statistics, outputting important pipeline flow and water level results, comparing with actual observation data, and analyzing flooding reasons of the easily waterlogged areas; monitoring equipment is installed in a focus waterlogging-prone area of a research area to achieve fine simulation of a model on the waterlogging-prone area; the health state of the drainage pipe network in the investigation region is checked, and the hydrodynamic force numerical simulation basic model is corrected in real time to establish a refined prediction model for urban flooding, so as to realize urban flooding early warning in extreme rainstorm weather; Determining a plurality of key index elements from three dimensions of pressure-state-response to construct an urban flood toughness assessment index system to evaluate urban flood toughness, wherein the method comprises the following steps: Selecting pipeline siltation, pipeline blockage, pipeline rupture, geographic elevation, population density, area of a built-up area, area of a road on average of people in the built-up area, greening coverage rate of the built-up area and flood control information engineering as the key index elements; Establishing an urban flood toughness evaluation model based on a PSR theory and combining the key index elements; And comparing the flow peak value, the peak appearance time and the water level peak value and peak time of the upstream and downstream important pipeline flowmeter monitoring in the easy waterlogging area to perform error analysis, and adjusting the surface flooding coefficient and the pipeline clogging state by combining the actual health state of the drainage pipeline to ensure that the relative error of the model simulation peak value and the actual measurement peak value data is less than 10% of the preset difference value so as to realize the fine simulation of the model on the easy waterlogging area.
2. The flood warning method based on the evaluation of the health state and the toughness of the drainage pipe network in the stormwater weather according to claim 1, wherein the data normalization processing is performed on the key index elements collected in the research area, the weight occupied by each index element is calculated by adopting an entropy weight method, the recovery power index of the flood disaster in the research area is calculated according to a comprehensive evaluation method, and the regional toughness grades are divided, and the method comprises the following steps: dividing the research area into m partitions, and establishing an original matrix of n evaluation indexes of the m research partitions: ; Wherein: Original index values of key index elements of each partition in the research area; normalizing the original index values of the key index elements in the original matrix and obtaining the specific gravity of the key index elements; Calculating the information entropy of the specific gravity of the key index elements after normalization processing, converting uncertainty into a calculable numerical value, and determining index weights of different key index elements; And calculating the index of the flood disaster recovery power of the research area by combining the index weight of the key index elements.
3. The flood warning method based on the evaluation of the health state and the toughness of the drainage pipe network in the stormwater weather according to claim 2, wherein the normalizing the original index values of the key index elements in the original matrix and normalizing the normalized values to obtain the specific gravity of the key index elements comprises: Normalizing the original index values of the key index elements to obtain normalized evaluation index values: Forward evaluation index: ; Negative evaluation index: ; Wherein X ij is an evaluation index value after the standardized processing of key index element data of each research partition, 、 The maximum index value and the minimum index value of the jth index in the total research area are respectively; Normalizing the evaluation index value to determine the proportion of the jth index in the nth research partition : ; Wherein: And normalizing the j index in the t study partition to obtain an evaluation index value.
4. The flood warning method based on the evaluation of the health state and the toughness of the drainage pipe network in the stormwater weather according to claim 3, wherein the calculating the information entropy of the specific gravity of the key index elements after the normalization processing, converting the uncertainty into a calculable value, and determining the index weights of different key index elements comprises: calculating the information entropy of the key index elements, converting uncertainty into a calculated value, and calculating the information entropy The formula is: ; determining the information redundancy of the key index elements according to the information entropy : ; Utilizing the information redundancy Determining the index weight of the key index element : 。
5. The method for flood warning based on the evaluation of the health status and toughness of the drainage network in stormwater according to claim 4, wherein the calculating the index of the recovery from flood disasters in the research area by combining the index weight of the key index element comprises determining the index of the recovery from flood disasters in the research area by combining the standardized evaluation index of the key index element and the index weight : ; The FRI is a flood disaster recovery power index of a research area, and the larger the FRI is, the larger the recovery power is, and the smaller the recovery power is otherwise.
6. The flood warning method based on the evaluation of the health state and the toughness of the drainage pipe network in the stormwater weather according to claim 1, wherein the investigation of the health state of the drainage pipe network in the research area and the real-time correction of the hydrodynamic numerical simulation basic model are performed to build a refined prediction model of urban flooding so as to realize the flood warning of the city in the stormwater extreme weather, and the method comprises the following steps: Correcting the hydrodynamic force numerical simulation basic model in real time according to the health state of the drainage pipe network of the research area, and carrying out real-time adjustment and optimization on the sensitivity parameters of the basic model, wherein the sensitivity parameters are based on the optimized basic model; Integrating the real information of the health state of the pipe network, establishing a targeted urban waterlogging and flooding refined prediction model, and finally realizing the refined simulation and quantitative prediction of the urban waterlogging and flooding process in extreme stormwater weather.

Description

Flood early warning method based on drainage pipe network health state and toughness evaluation in stormy weather Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of urban flood prevention, in particular to a flood early warning method based on evaluation of the health state and toughness of a drainage pipe network in stormwater weather. Background In order to fundamentally reduce life and property loss caused by natural disasters such as flood, and the like, ensure stable operation and sustainable development of urban systems, break through the limitation of traditional management modes, and construct tough cities with disaster risk pre-judgment, impact resistance and post-disaster quick recovery capability become urgent demands. Under the background, how to establish a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system, accurately measure and quantitatively express the urban flood disaster recovery capability, provide data support and decision basis for planning, construction and management of the toughness city, and become a core scientific problem to be solved in the current urban safety and disaster risk management field. The toughness concept is derived from the ecological field, then gradually extends to a plurality of fields such as sociology, management, urban planning and the like, the connotation is evolved from 'restoring state' to 'adapting evolution', and the dynamic process of adjusting the structure and optimizing the function and realizing a better state in disturbance of the system is emphasized. The city is used as a complex system with multiple elements and high coupling, the concept of multi-disturbance and city toughness is generated, and the core is the comprehensive characteristics of maintaining the core service uninterrupted, quickly recovering and improving the long-term risk resistance when the city system is used for coping with internal and external disturbance. The flood is one of the most frequent natural disasters in the city, the problems of climate change and urbanization are increasingly prominent, the traditional flood control and drainage mode is limited, the necessity of carrying out urban flood toughness assessment is increasingly prominent, the capability of resisting-adapting-recovering the flood in the city can be quantized, and a targeting optimization scheme can be provided for flood control and drainage. In the flood toughness evaluation framework, the construction of an evaluation index system is of great importance, the representativeness, the integrity and the scientificity of indexes directly influence the evaluation result, and the construction of an effective index system is required to be carried out by compacting theoretical support, and the indexes of the action mechanism and the development trend of the recovery force of the flood disaster are required to be definitely represented. The current research is expanded from a single view angle to an urban ecological system framework view angle and covers multidimensional analysis, but the existing measuring method has the defects that the restoring force is mostly regarded as a result or a process, and the traditional index selection has the problems of more theoretical derivation, less actual measurement data, more static description and less dynamic description. Therefore, the hydrodynamic model simulation and the on-site monitoring means are needed to be fused, the hydrodynamic model simulation and the on-site monitoring means can quantify the flooding characteristics under different flood scenes, data support is provided for screening risk response indexes, the hydrodynamic model simulation and the on-site monitoring means can capture dynamic information in real time and correct model parameters, and the hydrodynamic model simulation and the on-site monitoring means can be cooperated and optimized to form an evaluation index system which is more fit with reality. The urban waterlogging hydrodynamic model supporting one-dimensional and two-dimensional joint simulation can realize high-precision and high-reliability simulation of ponding results by reasonably generalizing a pipe network, refining water-collecting area division and introducing high-precision topographic data, and provides accurate quantification results for grasping waterlogging distribution rules. In summary, the embodiment provides a flood early warning method based on the evaluation of the health state and toughness of a drainage pipe network in stormwater weather, and provides a practical basis for decision making in extreme weather of a research area by combining a hydrodynamic model refined simulation result. Disclosure of Invention In order to solve the technical problems, the application provides the following technical scheme: In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a flood warning method based on evaluation of health status and toughness of a drainage pipe network in stormwater, including