CN-121809362-B - Multi-stage system task reliability modeling evaluation method considering complex dynamic characteristics

CN121809362BCN 121809362 BCN121809362 BCN 121809362BCN-121809362-B

Abstract

The application discloses a multistage system task reliability modeling and evaluating method considering complex dynamic characteristics, which belongs to the technical field of system reliability modeling and evaluating, and comprises the steps of establishing a system function model and a stage model according to structural constituent units, functional principles and task flows of a system, respectively establishing a state-transition model for each structural constituent unit based on a finite state machine with constraint, establishing a task flow model of the system in a corresponding stage according to task activities and task success and failure criteria of each stage, integrating the steps to obtain a multistage task reliability model, carrying out task reliability simulation, and calculating the occurrence probability of the concerned structural constituent unit state or structural constituent unit state combination. The application ensures the efficient and stable operation of the complex dynamic multi-stage system.

Inventors

LI ZHIFENG
SUN ZHENXIANG
Che Qingjun
CHENG HAO
MA JUNLING

Assignees

陕西可维卓立科技有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260309

Claims (3)

1. The multi-stage system task reliability modeling evaluation method considering complex dynamic characteristics is characterized by comprising the following steps of: S1, establishing a system function model and a stage model according to a structural component unit, a functional principle and a task flow of a system; The S1 comprises the following steps: S11, identifying system structural constituent units, defining functional relations of the structural constituent units in the system, establishing connection relations among the structural constituent units, and simultaneously establishing influence relations between external environments and the structural constituent units; S12, dividing task stages according to a system operation principle and task success and failure criteria, and establishing a stage model based on finite state machine representation; S2, respectively establishing a state-transition model of each structural component unit based on a finite state machine with constraint; s3, constructing a task flow model of the system in a corresponding stage according to task activities and task success and failure criteria of each stage; s4, integrating the steps to obtain a multi-stage task reliability model, carrying out task reliability simulation, and calculating the occurrence probability of the concerned structural component unit state or structural component unit state combination; The step S3 comprises the following steps: constructing task flow models of all stages, wherein the task flow models comprise task success flow models and task failure flow models; the step S4 comprises the following steps: S41, establishing a correlation relationship among a stage model, a state-transition model and a task flow model to obtain a multi-stage task reliability model; S42, setting simulation input parameters, wherein the simulation input parameters comprise simulation times N, concerned structural component unit states C T or K structural component unit states (C 1 ,C 2 ,…,C K ) combinations; s43, reading a multi-stage task reliability model, and carrying out task reliability simulation based on a Monte Carlo method; s44, counting simulation data, and calculating the occurrence probability of the state of the structural unit or the state combination of the structural unit; The formula for calculating the occurrence probability of the structural component unit state or the structural component unit state combination is as follows: the number of occurrences of the structural element state C T of interest during the simulation process is The total number of simulations is N, and the occurrence probability of the structural component unit state of interest is: ; The number of times of occurrence of the structural element state combination C G =(C1,C2,…,C K ) of interest can be obtained from the AND logic of these states, and the number of times of occurrence of the structural element state combination is set as The total number of simulations is N, and the probability of occurrence of the concerned structural component state combination is: 。
2. the multi-stage system task reliability modeling evaluation method considering complex dynamics according to claim 1, wherein S2 comprises: s21, carrying out failure mode and effect analysis on the system and each structural component unit, and determining the key failure mode of each structural component unit; s22, obtaining a complete state set of the structural unit according to the analysis result, determining the transition relation of each state, and determining the event associated with the transition and the constraint condition of the transition.
3. The multi-stage system task reliability modeling evaluation method considering complex dynamic characteristics according to claim 1, wherein in S43, the task reliability simulation is performed based on a monte carlo method, and the method comprises the following steps: (1) Initializing parameters, wherein the current simulation number i=0, the concerned structural component unit state or the combination of the structural component unit states; (2) Judging whether the simulation times N are reached, if so, ending the simulation, otherwise, turning to the step (3); (3) Judging whether the stage model has been traversed completely, if so, adding 1 to the simulation number, turning to step (2), If not, accessing the current stage model, and turning to the step (4); (4) Accessing a task flow model associated with the stage model, and turning to the step (5); (5) Advancing the starting point of the task flow model to the next node of the task flow, judging whether the current node is a termination node, if so, exiting the task flow model, turning to the step (3), and if not, turning to the step (6); (6) Judging whether the current node is associated with a state-transition model, if not, turning to the step (5), if so, acquiring the output of the state-transition model, and turning to the step (7); (7) Judging whether the state of the structural component unit is one of the state of the structural component unit concerned or the state combination of the structural component unit concerned, if so, counting and recording the state, and turning to the step (5), and if not, turning to the step (5) directly.

Description

Multi-stage system task reliability modeling evaluation method considering complex dynamic characteristics Technical Field The application relates to a multistage system task reliability modeling and evaluating method considering complex dynamic characteristics, and belongs to the technical field of system reliability modeling and evaluating. Background The conventional multi-stage system task modeling method is often used for building a reliability model of a system based on a mapping relation between a unit state and a system state, such as a reliability block diagram, a multi-stage fault tree, a binary decision diagram, a Bayesian network, and the like. Such methods merely establish structural relationships of the system and units and ignore the behavior of the system and units. Even the model built on the basis of the dynamic fault tree, the Petri Net, the Markov and the dynamic Bayesian network only describes the time sequence failure relation or the dynamic characteristic of partial related failure of the system. The state change process, time-varying relation, time delay effect, dynamic control process and the like of the system cannot be described. In order to analyze the above-mentioned system dynamics, it is necessary to explicitly build models expressing these dynamics and to form an analysis method for solving these models. Disclosure of Invention According to one aspect of the application, a multi-stage system task reliability modeling evaluation method considering complex dynamic characteristics is provided, and the method ensures efficient and stable operation of the complex dynamic multi-stage system. The multi-stage system task reliability modeling evaluation method considering complex dynamic characteristics is characterized by comprising the following steps of: S1, establishing a system function model and a stage model according to a structural component unit, a functional principle and a task flow of a system; S2, respectively establishing a state-transition model of each structural component unit based on a finite state machine with constraint; s3, constructing a task flow model of the system in a corresponding stage according to task activities and task success and failure criteria of each stage; And S4, integrating the steps to obtain a multi-stage task reliability model, carrying out task reliability simulation, and calculating the occurrence probability of the concerned structural component unit state or structural component unit state combination. Further, the step S1 includes: S11, identifying system structural constituent units, defining functional relations of the structural constituent units in the system, establishing connection relations among the structural constituent units, and simultaneously establishing influence relations between external environments and the structural constituent units; S12, dividing task stages according to the system operation principle and task success and failure criteria, and establishing a stage model based on finite state machine representation. Further, the step S2 includes: s21, carrying out failure mode and effect analysis on the system and each structural component unit, and determining the key failure mode of each structural component unit; s22, obtaining a complete state set of the structural unit according to the analysis result, determining the transition relation of each state, and determining the event associated with the transition and the constraint condition of the transition. Further, the step S3 includes: And constructing task flow models of all stages, wherein the task flow models comprise task success flow models and task failure flow models. Further, the step S4 includes: S41, establishing a correlation relationship among a stage model, a state-transition model and a task flow model to obtain a multi-stage task reliability model; S42, setting simulation input parameters, wherein the simulation input parameters comprise simulation times N, concerned structural component unit states C T or K structural component unit states (C 1,C2,…,CK) combinations; s43, reading a multi-stage task reliability model, and carrying out task reliability simulation based on a Monte Carlo method; S44, counting simulation data, and calculating the occurrence probability of the state of the structural component unit or the state combination of the structural component unit. Further, in S43, performing task reliability simulation based on the monte carlo method includes the following steps: (1) Initializing parameters, wherein the current simulation number i=0, the concerned structural component unit state or the combination of the structural component unit states; (2) Judging whether the simulation times N are reached, if so, ending the simulation, otherwise, turning to the step (3); (3) Judging whether the stage model has been traversed completely, if so, adding 1 to the simulation number, turning to step (2), If not, accessing the current stage mode