CN-121978419-A - Lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method and related device

CN121978419ACN 121978419 ACN121978419 ACN 121978419ACN-121978419-A

Abstract

The application discloses a lightning occurrence area, an intensity change prediction method and a related device, and relates to the field of meteorological monitoring and early warning; the method comprises the steps of calculating preset reflectivity jacking and change trend of the preset reflectivity jacking in a thunderstorm range, identifying horizontal grid points in the thunderstorm range as potential lightning active areas when the preset reflectivity jacking is in an ascending process and the electrification height exceeds the preset height, calculating to obtain space distribution of the potential lightning active areas in the follow-up time, calculating distribution of vertical reflectivity core heights in the follow-up time on each horizontal grid point, determining lightning active intensity levels of all grid points, establishing a corresponding relation model of the vertical reflectivity core heights and the lightning active intensities, and judging the stage of lightning activity in the potential lightning active areas according to the currently identified core heights and the change trend of the core heights. The lightning approach warning device can realize high-precision and high-aging lightning approach warning.

Inventors

WANG FEI
YAO WEN
ZHANG YANG
XU LIANGTAO

Assignees

中国气象科学研究院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260409

Claims (9)

1. The lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps: Acquiring radar body scan data of a target area; identifying and tracking the radar body sweep data to obtain a thunderstorm; based on the thunderstorm, calculating the preset reflectivity peak and the variation trend thereof in the thunderstorm range by utilizing the adjacent preamble radar reflectivity observation data to obtain a calculation result; based on the calculation result, judging whether the preset reflectivity jacking is in the ascending process or not, and if the electrification height exceeds the preset height, returning to 'using the adjacent preamble radar reflectivity observation data to calculate the preset reflectivity jacking and the variation trend thereof in the thunderstorm range' to obtain the calculation result; Calculating the space distribution of the potential lightning active area in the subsequent time according to an extrapolation algorithm; Calculating the distribution of the vertical-direction reflectivity core height on each horizontal lattice point in the subsequent time according to the radar data of the previous time and the extrapolation algorithm based on the space distribution of the potential lightning active area in the subsequent time, wherein the vertical-direction reflectivity core height comprises the maximum value of reflectivity and the distribution height thereof; determining the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point at the subsequent time; based on the lightning activity intensity level on each lattice point, establishing a corresponding relation model of the vertical direction reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity; And based on the relation model, judging the stage of the lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height and the change trend thereof.
2. The lightning occurrence area and intensity variation prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the stage of the lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area based on the relationship model according to the currently identified core height and the variation trend thereof specifically comprises: if H >5km, judging as an initial stage, wherein the lightning intensity level is low; if the H is less than or equal to 2km and less than or equal to 5km, and the height is in a descending trend, the lightning intensity level is strong, wherein if the H is less than or equal to 2km and less than or equal to 3km, the lightning intensity level is strongest; if H is less than or equal to 2km, and the height is in a stable or slowly descending trend, the lightning potential grade is 'middle', wherein H is the currently identified core height.
3. The lightning occurrence area and intensity variation prediction method according to claim 1, further comprising: and superposing the potential lightning active area and the corresponding stage of the lightning activity on a geographic information base map to generate a graphical or textual early warning product.
4. A lightning occurrence area and intensity variation prediction apparatus, characterized in that the lightning occurrence area and intensity variation prediction apparatus comprises: the data acquisition module is used for acquiring radar body scan data of the target area; the identification tracking module is used for carrying out identification tracking on the radar body sweep data to obtain a thunderstorm; the first calculation module is used for calculating the preset reflectivity peak and the variation trend thereof in the thunderstorm range by utilizing the adjacent preamble radar reflectivity observation data based on the thunderstorm to obtain a calculation result; The judging module is used for judging whether the preset reflectivity jacking is in the ascending process or not based on the calculation result, and the electrification height exceeds the preset height, if not, returning to the process of calculating the preset reflectivity jacking and the variation trend thereof in the thunderstorm range by utilizing the adjacent preamble radar reflectivity observation data to obtain the calculation result; the second calculation module is used for calculating the space distribution of the potential lightning active area in the subsequent time according to an extrapolation algorithm; The third calculation module is used for calculating the distribution of the vertical-direction reflectivity core height on each horizontal lattice point in the subsequent time according to the spatial distribution of the potential lightning active area in the subsequent time and the radar data of the previous time and the extrapolation algorithm, wherein the vertical-direction reflectivity core height comprises the maximum value of reflectivity and the distribution height thereof; A lightning activity intensity level determining module, configured to determine a lightning activity intensity level at each grid point based on the distribution of the vertical-direction reflectivity core heights at the each horizontal grid point at the subsequent time; the relation model building module is used for building a corresponding relation model of the vertical reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity based on the lightning activity intensity level on each grid point; And the lightning activity stage judging module is used for judging the stage of the lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height and the change trend thereof based on the relation model.
5. The lightning occurrence area and intensity variation prediction apparatus of claim 4, wherein the lightning activity phase determination module comprises: if H >5km, judging as an initial stage, wherein the lightning intensity level is low; if the H is less than or equal to 2km and less than or equal to 5km, and the height is in a descending trend, the lightning intensity level is strong, wherein if the H is less than or equal to 2km and less than or equal to 3km, the lightning intensity level is strongest; if H is less than or equal to 2km, and the height is in a stable or slowly descending trend, the lightning potential grade is 'middle', wherein H is the currently identified core height.
6. The lightning occurrence area and intensity variation prediction device according to claim 4, further comprising: And the early warning product generation module is used for superposing the potential lightning active area and the stage where the corresponding lightning activity is positioned on the geographic information base map to generate a graphical or textual early warning product.
7. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, characterized in that the processor executes the computer program to implement the lightning occurrence area and the intensity variation prediction method of any of claims 1-3.
8. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program, when being executed by a processor, implements the lightning occurrence area and the intensity variation prediction method of any one of claims 1-3.
9. A computer program product comprising a computer program, which when executed by a processor implements the lightning occurrence area and the intensity variation prediction method of any one of claims 1-3.

Description

Lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method and related device Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of meteorological monitoring and early warning, in particular to a lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method and a related device. Background Lightning is an important disaster causing factor in strongly convective weather. The existing lightning early warning based on radar data is mostly dependent on the horizontal distribution (such as combined reflectivity) of radar reflectivity, the information of the vertical distribution of the reflectivity is basically not utilized, and the early warning result is only limited to the prediction of the existence or non-existence of lightning activity. Recent researches show that lightning is closely related to a charge structure in storm, and some vertical distribution parameters (especially the height of a vertical reflectivity core) of radar reflectivity can reflect the development degree of the charge structure, so that the parameters are key parameters for connecting a storm microphysical process and the charge structure. How to comprehensively utilize three-dimensional observation data of radar reflectivity, extract the index that can effectively characterize lightning position and intensity to be used for predicting the emergence and the development of lightning activity, be the key that improves early warning precision and service effect. Disclosure of Invention The application aims to provide a lightning occurrence area and intensity change prediction method and a related device, which can solve the problem that a lightning early warning method in the prior art is insufficient in characterization of a storm internal physical process. In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides the following. In a first aspect, the present application provides a lightning occurrence area and an intensity variation prediction method, which includes the following steps. Radar body scan data of a target area is acquired. And identifying and tracking the radar body sweep data to obtain a thunderstorm. Based on the thunderstorm, the preset reflectivity peak and the variation trend thereof in the thunderstorm range are calculated by utilizing the adjacent preamble radar reflectivity observation data, and a calculation result is obtained. And judging whether the preset reflectivity jacking is in the ascending process or not based on the calculation result, if not, returning to 'calculating the preset reflectivity jacking and the change trend thereof in the thunderstorm range by using the adjacent preamble radar reflectivity observation data', and if so, identifying the horizontal lattice points in the thunderstorm range as potential lightning active areas. And calculating the spatial distribution of the potential lightning active area in the subsequent time according to an extrapolation algorithm. Based on the space distribution of the potential lightning active area in the subsequent time, calculating the distribution of the vertical-direction reflectivity core height on each horizontal lattice point in the subsequent time according to the radar data of the previous time and in combination with an extrapolation algorithm, wherein the vertical-direction reflectivity core height comprises the maximum value of reflectivity and the distribution height thereof. And determining the lightning activity intensity level at each grid point based on the distribution of the vertical reflectivity core height at each horizontal grid point at the subsequent time. And establishing a corresponding relation model of the vertical reflectivity core height and the lightning activity intensity based on the lightning activity intensity level on each lattice point. And based on the relation model, judging the stage of the lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height and the change trend thereof. Optionally, based on the relation model, determining the stage of the lightning activity in the potential lightning activity area according to the currently identified core height and the variation trend thereof, including the following. If H >5km, it is determined as "initial stage" and the lightning intensity level is "low". If the H is less than or equal to 2km and less than or equal to 5km, and the height is in a descending trend, the lightning intensity level is 'strong', wherein if the H is less than or equal to 2km and less than or equal to 3km, the lightning intensity level is 'strongest'. If H is less than or equal to 2km, and the height is in a stable or slowly descending trend, the lightning potential grade is 'middle', wherein H is the currently identified core height. Optionally, the lightning occurrence area and the intensity change prediction method further comprise the step of superposing the potential lightning activity area and the correspon