CN-121978904-A - Multi-energy coupling system model predictive control method and system based on Jacobi function

CN121978904ACN 121978904 ACN121978904 ACN 121978904ACN-121978904-A

Abstract

The invention provides a prediction control method and a system of a multi-energy coupling system model based on a Jacobi function, wherein the method comprises the steps of constructing an energy coupling model of the multi-energy coupling system based on the Jacobi elliptic function, wherein the energy coupling model comprises an energy demand model, an energy supply model and a multi-energy coupling dynamic model; and constructing a model prediction control framework by utilizing the multi-energy coupling dynamic model and the hybrid prediction model, wherein the model prediction control framework acquires a prediction control decision of the multi-energy coupling system according to the current state of the multi-energy coupling system.

Inventors

XIAO KAI
WANG CONG
CHEN WEI
KE WEI
GONG FEI
ZHANG XIAOYUAN
ZHANG XIAO
REN KUAN
Deng Zhangtie
LU ZHENBIN
HUANG WEI
HU TIANYU
Lv Duanyang
Hu Tengxin

Assignees

中建三局安装工程有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20251126

Claims (10)

1. A prediction control method of a multi-energy coupling system model based on a Jacobi function is characterized by comprising the following steps: The energy coupling model of the multi-energy coupling system is built based on the Jacobi elliptic function, and comprises an energy demand model of the multi-energy coupling system, an energy supply model of the multi-energy coupling system, a multi-energy coupling dynamic model, a coupling differential equation set and a multi-energy coupling system, wherein the energy demand model is built based on the Jacobi elliptic function; combining an ARMA model and a Jacobi elliptic function, and constructing a hybrid prediction model based on an energy demand model; and constructing a model prediction control framework by utilizing the multi-energy coupling dynamic model and the hybrid prediction model, wherein the model prediction control framework acquires a prediction control decision of the multi-energy coupling system according to the current state of the multi-energy coupling system.
2. The prediction control method of a multi-energy coupling system model based on Jacobi function as claimed in claim 1, wherein the mathematical representation of the energy demand model of the multi-energy coupling system is: ; wherein D (t) represents the energy demand at time t; 、、 the method is a basic Jacobi elliptic function which respectively represents sine, cosine and hyperbolic sine functions, A, C, E is amplitude corresponding to sn term, cn term and dn term in the Jacobi elliptic function respectively, k is modulus of the elliptic function, and B is frequency coefficient.
3. The prediction control method of a multi-energy coupling system model based on Jacobi function as claimed in claim 2, wherein the mathematical expression of the multi-energy coupling dynamic model is: ; ; ; Wherein, the 、 And Respectively representing the storage states of electric power, heat energy and cold energy at time t in the energy storage system; 、 And The demand amounts of electric power, heat energy and cold energy at time t are respectively represented; 、 And The supply amounts of electric power, heat energy, and cold energy respectively representing time t; 、、、、 And Is the coupling coefficient.
4. The prediction control method of a multi-energy coupling system model based on a Jacobi function as claimed in claim 1, wherein the hybrid prediction model integrates an ARMA model and the Jacobi elliptic function on the basis of an energy demand model, and the mathematical expression is: ; Wherein, the (T) is the predicted energy demand at time t; is the autoregressive coefficient of the ARMA model, An autoregressive order index is represented, and n represents an autoregressive order; is a moving average coefficient of the ARMA model, j represents an index of a moving average order, and m represents a moving average order; White noise, representing a predicted random error, represents random fluctuations that cannot be interpreted by the model, F, G and H are the tuning parameters of the Jacobi elliptic function.
5. The method for predictive control of a multi-energy coupled system model based on Jacobi functions of claim 1, further comprising: Collecting historical operation data and real-time monitoring data of the multi-energy coupling system, performing model parameter fine adjustment on an energy coupling model of the multi-energy coupling system based on a least square method and a system identification technology, and outputting the energy coupling model of the multi-energy coupling system after fine adjustment is finished; Based on the historical energy demand data in the historical operation data as a training data set, training the hybrid prediction model, estimating model parameters of the hybrid prediction model by adopting maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian information criterion in the training process, and outputting the trained hybrid prediction model.
6. The method for predictive control of a multi-energy coupled system model based on Jacobi function as claimed in claim 1, wherein the process of constructing a model predictive control framework comprises: The method comprises the steps of taking a hybrid prediction model as an input model, taking the energy supply quantity of each time period of a multi-energy coupling system in a future time domain as a control input, and taking a multi-energy coupling dynamic model as a prediction model, wherein the hybrid prediction model is used for outputting the energy demand quantity of each time period of the multi-energy coupling system in the future time domain according to the current state of the multi-energy coupling system; and constructing an optimization problem of the multi-energy coupling system according to the instant cost function and the terminal cost function, and defining physical constraints of the multi-energy coupling system.
7. The method for predicting and controlling a model of a multi-energy coupling system based on Jacobi function as claimed in claim 6, wherein the process of obtaining the predicted and controlled decision of the multi-energy coupling system by the model predicted and controlled framework according to the current state of the multi-energy coupling system comprises: In each time step, the model prediction control framework uses the state of the current multi-energy coupling system as an initial condition, the input model predicts the energy demand in the time step according to the initial condition, and the energy demand in the time step is input into the prediction model to obtain a prediction expression of the energy storage state in the time step with respect to the energy supply quantity; substituting the predictive expression into the optimization problem of the multi-energy coupling system, and solving the optimal energy supply quantity under the physical constraint as a predictive control decision of the time step.
8. A multi-energy coupling system model predictive control system based on a Jacobi function is characterized by comprising: The energy coupling modeling module is used for constructing an energy coupling model of the multi-energy coupling system based on the Jacobi elliptic function and comprises an energy demand model of the multi-energy coupling system based on the Jacobi elliptic function, an energy supply model of the multi-energy coupling system based on the nonlinear dynamics model, a multi-energy coupling dynamic model based on the constructed energy demand model and the energy supply model and a coupling differential equation set; The hybrid prediction modeling module is used for combining the ARMA model and the Jacobi elliptic function and constructing a hybrid prediction model based on the energy demand model; The prediction control decision module is used for constructing a model prediction control framework by utilizing the multi-energy coupling dynamic model and the hybrid prediction model, and the model prediction control framework acquires a prediction control decision of the multi-energy coupling system according to the current state of the multi-energy coupling system.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing program instructions for execution by the processor, the processor invoking the program instructions to perform the method of any of claims 1-7.
10. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium, wherein the non-transitory computer readable storage medium stores computer instructions, the computer instructions cause the computer to perform the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.

Description

Multi-energy coupling system model predictive control method and system based on Jacobi function Technical Field The invention belongs to the field of energy management, and particularly relates to a prediction control method and a prediction control system for a multi-energy coupling system model based on a Jacobi function. Background The multi-energy coupling system is used as a comprehensive energy system integrating various energy forms such as electric power, heat energy, cold energy and the like, and has remarkable energy efficiency improvement and environmental friendliness characteristics because the multi-energy coupling system can realize the collaborative optimization utilization of various energy, so that the multi-energy coupling system is widely focused and researched. However, the operation management of the multi-energy coupling system involves dynamic coupling and interconversion of multiple energy media, and the complexity and nonlinear characteristics of the system make it difficult for conventional control strategies to meet the requirements of efficient, stable operation. Especially, in the face of uncertainty and external disturbance in actual operation, how to ensure the robustness and response speed of the system becomes a key technical problem of optimal control of the multi-energy coupling system. Model predictive control (ModelPredictiveControl, MPC) is used as an advanced control method, and can predict and optimize the system behavior in the future time domain on the premise of considering the dynamic characteristics of the system, so that the model predictive control becomes an effective tool for solving the control problem of a complex system. However, when applied to a multi-energy coupling system, the existing MPC method faces the challenges of complex modeling, heavy calculation burden, insufficient real-time performance and the like. In addition, how to combine uncertainty processing and self-adaptive adjustment mechanism in the multi-energy coupling system to further improve the robustness and energy efficiency of the system is also a problem to be solved. Disclosure of Invention In order to solve the problems of complex modeling, heavy calculation load and insufficient real-time performance of the existing MPC method when being applied to a multi-energy coupling system, the invention provides a multi-energy coupling system model prediction control method and system based on Jacobi function, an accurate energy coupling model of the multi-energy coupling system is established based on Jacobi elliptic function, and constructing a hybrid prediction model based on the energy coupling model for real-time data and analysis, optimizing energy distribution and scheduling strategies under a model prediction control framework constructed by utilizing the multi-energy coupling dynamic model and the hybrid prediction model, and improving the operation efficiency and the energy utilization rate of the multi-energy coupling system. According to an aspect of the present disclosure, a method for controlling model prediction of a multi-energy coupling system based on Jacobi function is provided, including: The energy coupling model of the multi-energy coupling system is built based on the Jacobi elliptic function, and comprises an energy demand model of the multi-energy coupling system, an energy supply model of the multi-energy coupling system, a multi-energy coupling dynamic model, a coupling differential equation set and a multi-energy coupling system, wherein the energy demand model is built based on the Jacobi elliptic function; combining an ARMA model and a Jacobi elliptic function, and constructing a hybrid prediction model based on an energy demand model; and constructing a model prediction control framework by utilizing the multi-energy coupling dynamic model and the hybrid prediction model, wherein the model prediction control framework acquires a prediction control decision of the multi-energy coupling system according to the current state of the multi-energy coupling system. As a further technical solution, the mathematical representation of the energy demand model of the multi-energy coupling system is: wherein D (t) represents the energy demand at time t; 、、 the method is a basic Jacobi elliptic function which respectively represents sine, cosine and hyperbolic sine functions, A, C, E is amplitude corresponding to sn term, cn term and dn term in the Jacobi elliptic function respectively, k is modulus of the elliptic function, and B is frequency coefficient. As a further technical solution, the mathematical expression of the multi-energy coupling dynamic model is: ; ; ; Wherein, the 、AndRespectively representing the storage states of electric power, heat energy and cold energy at time t in the energy storage system;、 And The demand amounts of electric power, heat energy and cold energy at time t are respectively represented;、 And The supply amounts of electric power, heat en