CN-121980802-A - Artificial precipitation multi-catalysis scheme simulation effect evaluation method under live precipitation constraint

CN121980802ACN 121980802 ACN121980802 ACN 121980802ACN-121980802-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a simulation effect evaluation method of a multiple artificial precipitation catalysis scheme under the constraint of live precipitation, which comprises the steps of obtaining analysis field data, precipitation data and artifact operation information of a region to be evaluated, driving non-catalysis simulation and simulation catalysis simulation of a precipitation process according to artifact operation information based on the analysis field data, taking a non-catalysis simulation result as a precipitation background field, determining an operation influence area based on a catalysis average value of each catalysis simulation result, counting hit grid points and leakage grid points of simulated precipitation according to the precipitation background field and the precipitation data, calculating a simulated precipitation rate and an actual precipitation rate based on the hit grid points, and obtaining an evaluation result of an actual catalysis precipitation effect. According to the method, various catalytic parameter schemes are combined with CMPAS live data constraint simulation, and the operation influence area is determined by combining with the catalyst vertical integration concentration threshold, so that the reliability and service practicability of artificial precipitation effect evaluation are improved, and accurate support can be provided for the optimization of a subsequent operation scheme.

Inventors

LIU WEIGUO
Dang juan
WANG FEI
SHI YUEQIN
LIN DAWEI
ZHANG YING
TANG JIAHUI

Assignees

中国气象局人工影响天气中心

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260129

Claims (10)

1. The artificial precipitation multi-catalysis scheme simulation effect evaluation method under the constraint of live precipitation is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Acquiring rainfall enhancement data of a region to be evaluated, and preprocessing the rainfall enhancement data, wherein the rainfall enhancement data comprises re-analysis field data, precipitation data and shadow operation information; Non-catalytic simulation and simulated catalytic simulation of a precipitation process are driven according to the figure operation information based on the analysis field data, wherein the figure operation information comprises different catalytic parameter schemes of silver iodide catalysts; The non-catalytic simulation result is used as a precipitation background field, the catalytic simulation result is subjected to matching alignment and non-sharpening mask enhancement through longitude and latitude grids, and an operation influence area is determined based on the catalytic average value of each catalytic simulation result; according to the rainfall background field and the rainfall data, evaluating the weather score of the simulated rainfall in the operation influence area, and counting hit grid points and leakage grid points of the simulated rainfall; and calculating the simulated rain increasing rate and the actual rain increasing rate based on the hit lattice points, and optimizing and compensating the rain increasing rate of the leakage lattice points according to the actual rain increasing rate by means of cuckoo search to obtain an evaluation result of the actual catalysis rain increasing effect.
2. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the precipitation data comprises the following steps: Acquiring global or regional atmospheric analysis field data of a region to be evaluated, converting the analysis field data into a compatible format of a numerical mode, and mapping the compatible format to coordinates through bilinear interpolation, wherein the analysis field data comprises three-dimensional element fields of air pressure, temperature, humidity and wind fields, the time resolution of the analysis field data is greater than or equal to 1 hour and the spatial resolution is greater than or equal to 0.1 degree, and the compatible format comprises NetCDF; acquiring precipitation data and figure operation information of the coordinates, removing abnormal zero values from the precipitation data, matching the figure operation information to a time sequence of analysis field data according to operation time, and associating an operation position to longitude and latitude of the coordinates to obtain precipitation increasing data of an area to be evaluated; The spatial resolution of the precipitation data is greater than or equal to 1 km, the time resolution is greater than or equal to 1 hour, the artificial precipitation working modes comprise an airplane, a rocket, an antiaircraft gun and a smoke furnace, and the working positions comprise a working station and an air line coordinate.
3. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of a multiple catalytic scheme for precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the result of the catalytic simulation comprises the following steps: Determining longitude and latitude grids and precipitation time points based on precipitation data, taking a three-dimensional element field as boundary conditions of the longitude and latitude grids according to re-analysis field data, extracting operation positions, operation time and catalyst consumption according to artifact operation information, performing non-catalytic simulation of a precipitation process in a region to be evaluated through a preset platform based on the boundary conditions, and obtaining non-catalytic simulation results, wherein the number of vertical layering of the non-catalytic simulation is greater than or equal to 50 layers, and the non-catalytic simulation time covers the operation time and the precipitation time points; And carrying out track gridding on the sowing process of the aircraft, rocket, antiaircraft gun and smoke furnace based on the operation position through longitude and latitude grids, carrying out simulation catalysis simulation of different catalysis parameter schemes on the precipitation process according to the track grids, operation time, catalyst consumption and boundary conditions to obtain a catalysis simulation result, wherein the catalysis simulation result comprises catalysis precipitation grid point data and catalyst vertical integration concentration field data, and the catalysis parameter schemes comprise simulation time-varying calculation schemes and simulation steady calculation schemes of 7 silver iodide catalysts.
4. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of a multiple catalytic project for precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the range of the operation influence area comprises the following steps: And taking the catalytic simulation result without catalysis as a precipitation background field, matching and leveling the catalytic simulation results of different catalytic parameter schemes through longitude and latitude grids, calculating the aggregate average precipitation field and aggregate variance of the precipitation fields of the catalytic simulation different catalytic parameter schemes, carrying out non-sharpening mask enhancement on the aggregate average precipitation field based on wind field data of re-analysis field data, and obtaining a spatial structure enhanced precipitation field, wherein the non-sharpening mask enhancement formula is as follows: ; ; Wherein the method comprises the steps of The precipitation field is enhanced for the spatial structure, In order to aggregate the average precipitation field, For a background field of precipitation, As a basis for the intensity of the sharpening, The parameters are adjusted for the aggregate variance, For a precipitation field of aggregate variance, Is a grid The standard deviation of the precipitation field in the neighborhood, Is a small positive number, the number of which is, For the anisotropic advection kernel weight, For the resolution of the warp-wise grid, For the resolution of the weft-wise mesh, For the wind speed in the weft direction, For the radial wind speed, For the characteristic time of the advection of the precipitation system, Is Gaussian kernel standard deviation, is 2 to 5 times grid distance, The neighborhood offset index is the relative coordinates in the convolution kernel window; And acquiring vertical integral concentration data of the silver iodide catalyst particles based on the space structure enhanced precipitation field, and taking the longitude and latitude grid area as an operation influence area range and taking the aggregate average value of the simulated precipitation field as the simulated precipitation amount according to the operation influence area if the aggregate average value of the vertical integral concentration data is more than or equal to 500L -2 .
5. The method for evaluating the simulated effect of a multiple catalytic scheme for precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation of claim 4, wherein said method for obtaining the simulated precipitation comprises: Calculating a weighted average value of catalytic precipitation grid point data output by each catalytic parameter scheme on each longitude and latitude grid based on the operation influence area, wherein the weighted average value calculation formula is as follows: ; ; Wherein the method comprises the steps of As a collective average value of the values, First, the The catalytic parameter scheme is arranged in a grid The weight coefficient of the base station, The catalytic parameter schemes are numbered in order, For precipitation data on a longitude and latitude grid, Is a grid Catalytic precipitation grid data.
6. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the weather score comprises the following steps: carrying out space-time resolution alignment on a precipitation background field, precipitation data and an aggregate average value of each grid point according to longitude and latitude grids based on an operation influence area, and counting hit grid points, empty grid points and missing grid points according to the Ziegler points, wherein the hit grid points are grid points with the aggregate average value being judged to be rainy and the precipitation data being judged to be rainy, the empty grid points are grid points with the aggregate average value being judged to be rainy and the precipitation data being judged to be non-rainy, and the missing grid points are grid points with the aggregate average value being judged to be non-rainy and the precipitation data being judged to be rainy; And calculating TS scores based on the hit lattice points, the empty lattice points and the missing lattice points, and reserving lattice points with TS scores greater than or equal to 0.5 to obtain weather scores.
7. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple artificial precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the simulated precipitation rate comprises the following steps: And calculating the simulated precipitation rate based on the precipitation background field and the hit grid point of the operation influence area, if the precipitation background field precipitation amount corresponding to the hit grid point is larger than zero, dividing the difference value of the simulated precipitation amount and the precipitation background field precipitation amount by the precipitation background field precipitation amount to obtain the simulated precipitation rate, if the precipitation background field precipitation amount corresponding to the hit grid point is zero and the simulated precipitation amount is larger than zero, taking the maximum simulated precipitation rate in the operation influence area as the simulated precipitation rate of the current hit grid point, and if the simulated precipitation amount is also zero, the simulated precipitation rate of the current hit grid point is zero.
8. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple artificial precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the actual precipitation rate comprises the following steps: Sequentially selecting hit lattice points according to a coordinate sequence based on an operation influence area, taking the current hit lattice point and other hit lattice points in a search radius range as adjacent lattice points, calculating a weight average value according to the simulated rainfall enhancement rate of the adjacent lattice points, taking the weight average value as the actual rainfall enhancement rate of the current hit lattice points, wherein the search radius range is 5-10 km, and the actual rainfall enhancement rate calculation formula is as follows: ; ; Wherein the method comprises the steps of Is the first in the search range Initial weight coefficients corresponding to the precipitation hit grid points, Is the first The simulated precipitation of each hit lattice point, To hit lattice point The data of the precipitation on the water storage device, For the total number of hit points in the search range, To hit lattice point The actual rain-increasing rate is used for the water-saving type vehicle, Is the first Initial weight coefficients of the individual precipitation hits the grid points, Search within the range of Simulated rain enhancement rate for each hit lattice.
9. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of the artificial precipitation multi-catalytic scheme under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the precipitation rate of the grid leakage point comprises the following steps: Taking a longitude and latitude grid point set with an actual rain enhancement value as a search space based on an operation influence area, acquiring a search radius according to the actual rain enhancement value, searching reference grid points through a cuckoo search optimization algorithm based on the search space and the search radius, and anisotropically correcting a search step length according to wind field data of re-analysis field data to obtain a new reference grid point set, wherein the correction formula is as follows: ; Wherein the method comprises the steps of For the modified new nest, the coordinate vector of the new reference lattice point set, For the current solution, for the old nest, As a step-size factor, Is generated according to a Mannich algorithm for the Lewy random number, For the current optimal solution to be the most optimal solution, For the multiplication on an element-by-element basis, Is the maximum value of the weft wind speed, Is the maximum value of the warp wind speed; if the number of the reference grid points in the new reference grid point set is more than or equal to 3, the rain increasing rate of the missing grid points is calculated by a calculation formula of the rain increasing rate of the missing grid points, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: ; ; Wherein the method comprises the steps of For increasing the rain rate of the missing lattice point, For the total number of the missing lattice points, the missing lattice points to be calculated currently are not contained, Is the first The initial weight coefficients of the individual reference grid points, Is the first The actual rain-enhancing rate of the individual reference grid points, Is the first The simulated precipitation of the individual reference grid points, Precipitation data of the current grid point is obtained; if the number of the reference grid points is smaller than 3, the average actual rain increasing rate of the operation influence area is used for assigning the current missing grid points.
10. The method for evaluating the simulation effect of multiple catalytic schemes for artificial precipitation under the constraint of live precipitation according to claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the actual catalytic precipitation effect comprises the following steps: Calculating the actual rainfall increase based on the actual rainfall increase rate of the operation influence area, the rainfall increase rate of the missing report point and rainfall data, wherein the actual rainfall increase calculation formula is as follows: ; Wherein the method comprises the steps of Is the first The actual rainfall of each grid, per ten thousand tons, Is the first Precipitation data for the individual grids, Is the first The actual rain-up rate of the individual grids, For the grid distance of the precipitation data, The grid distance of the precipitation data is in meters, and is obtained according to the longitude and latitude grid resolution, Is water density, unit kg/m 3 ; And accumulating the actual rainfall increase in the operation influence area to obtain the total rainfall increase, taking the total rainfall increase, the sunny and rainy score, the hit lattice point and the leakage lattice point as the actual catalysis rainfall increase effect, and obtaining a simulation effect evaluation result according to the actual catalysis rainfall increase effect and the operation influence area.

Description

Artificial precipitation multi-catalysis scheme simulation effect evaluation method under live precipitation constraint Technical Field The invention relates to the field of artificial precipitation, in particular to a simulation effect evaluation method of an artificial precipitation multi-catalysis scheme under the constraint of live precipitation. Background The artificial precipitation is realized by spreading catalysts such as silver iodide, hygroscopic particles and the like to Yun Ti, intervening in cloud precipitation microphysics, promoting precipitation formation or improving precipitation intensity, and is widely applied to scenes such as ecological restoration, agricultural drought resistance, forest fire extinction and the like, so that scientific, objective and quantitative evaluation of catalytic operation effects becomes focus of attention in the field of artificial influence on weather, numerical simulation inspection is one of main technical methods of operation effect evaluation, a plurality of numerical simulation systems capable of simulating and simulating actual human shadow operation processes are established at present, parameterization formulas of catalyst nucleation processes such as silver iodide are summarized through different cloud chamber tests, and the parameterization formulas are coupled into numerical modes in different forms, and the artificial precipitation simulation system has the technical capability of simulating and simulating human shadow operation catalytic processes such as planes, rockets and cannons. On the other hand, because the precipitation field simulated by the current numerical mode has a certain degree of difference compared with the actual precipitation field, the effect of the actually-generated artificial precipitation operation is evaluated by only depending on the numerical mode, and the result is based on the precipitation field simulated by the mode itself without considering the actual precipitation condition, so that the evaluated precipitation result has more relative reference significance, and the quantitative result on the actual precipitation background field cannot be given, thereby limiting the wider application of the method in the actual service. In view of the above, we have established a multi-catalytic-scheme simulation and live precipitation constraint operation effect quantitative evaluation technical method for actual artificial precipitation operation by integrating the numerical simulation catalysis simulation of the multi-catalytic-parameterization scheme and using the live precipitation field to constrain quantitative calculation in the process of the catalysis simulation evaluation operation effect. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a simulation effect evaluation method for a multiple artificial precipitation catalysis scheme under the constraint of live precipitation. In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention is implemented according to the following technical scheme: the invention provides a simulation effect evaluation method of a multiple artificial precipitation catalysis scheme under the constraint of live precipitation, which comprises the following steps: Acquiring rainfall enhancement data of a region to be evaluated, and preprocessing the rainfall enhancement data, wherein the rainfall enhancement data comprises re-analysis field data, precipitation data and shadow operation information; Non-catalytic simulation and simulated catalytic simulation of a precipitation process are driven according to the figure operation information based on the analysis field data, wherein the figure operation information comprises different catalytic parameter schemes of silver iodide catalysts; The non-catalytic simulation result is used as a precipitation background field, the catalytic simulation result is subjected to matching alignment and non-sharpening mask enhancement through longitude and latitude grids, and an operation influence area is determined based on the catalytic average value of each catalytic simulation result; according to the rainfall background field and the rainfall data, evaluating the weather score of the simulated rainfall in the operation influence area, and counting hit grid points and leakage grid points of the simulated rainfall; and calculating the simulated rain increasing rate and the actual rain increasing rate based on the hit lattice points, and optimizing and compensating the rain increasing rate of the leakage lattice points according to the actual rain increasing rate by means of cuckoo search to obtain an evaluation result of the actual catalysis rain increasing effect. Further, the method for obtaining the rain enhancement data comprises the following steps: Acquiring global or regional atmospheric analysis field data of a region to be evaluated, converting the analysis field data into a compatible format of a numerical mode, and mapping the compatible format t