CN-121980881-A - Quantitative assessment method, equipment and storage medium for danger around reservoir water storage area

CN121980881ACN 121980881 ACN121980881 ACN 121980881ACN-121980881-A

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of hydraulic engineering and earthquake geological risk assessment, and discloses a method, equipment and a storage medium for quantitatively assessing the peripheral dangers of a reservoir water storage area, wherein a three-dimensional finite element model of the reservoir water storage area and the peripheral area is constructed, pressure loading data converted from reservoir water level change data and changing along with time is used as a hydraulic load effect, the earth surface displacement, coulomb stress change and future earthquake activity change rate are simulated and calculated, so that danger quantification indexes are obtained, a corresponding danger distribution map is generated, and further, peripheral area danger distribution prediction data are obtained; the risk index is quantized by a finite element method, and the method is applicable to reservoir water storage risk prediction of complex geological conditions and fault active areas.

Inventors

HE XIN
Guo Rumeng
FAN JINYONG
LIAO HAISHENG
MA GUOHUI
TANG GANG
LI LINZE
YANG LEI
WEN FAN
TU JING

Assignees

三峡金沙江云川水电开发有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260408

Claims (9)

1. The quantitative assessment method for the danger around the reservoir water storage area is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Step 1, obtaining initial data of the topography of a reservoir water storage area and the periphery, wherein the initial data of the topography comprises underground component layering model data, topography elevation model data, fault geometric model data, fault constitutive parameter data, reservoir area drainage basin distribution data, rock attribute data and reservoir area water level change data; Preprocessing terrain elevation model data, fault geometric model data and reservoir area drainage basin distribution data in the terrain geological initial data; Step 2, constructing a three-dimensional finite element initial model based on the preprocessed terrain elevation model data and fault geometric model data; Step 3, configuring material properties, physical boundary conditions and loading conditions for a three-dimensional finite element initial model in a finite element solver to obtain a three-dimensional finite element model of a target reservoir water storage area; Step 4, taking reservoir water level change data as input, performing analog calculation to obtain corresponding risk quantification indexes and generating a risk distribution map, so as to obtain peripheral region risk distribution prediction data; optimizing material properties by comparing historical seismic observation data to obtain an optimal three-dimensional finite element model and optimal peripheral region danger distribution prediction data; and 5, acquiring reservoir area water level change data of reservoirs in different water storage periods, and acquiring corresponding peripheral area risk distribution prediction data based on an optimal three-dimensional finite element model.
2. The method for quantitatively evaluating the peripheral risk of a reservoir water storage area according to claim 1, wherein the preprocessing of the topography elevation model data, the fault geometric model data and the reservoir basin distribution data in the topography geological initial data specifically comprises the following steps: step 1.1, obtaining topography and geological initial data and historical disaster event record data of a reservoir water storage area and a surrounding area, wherein the historical disaster event record data comprises historical earthquake observation data; step 1.2, smoothing, coordinate conversion and resampling are carried out on the terrain elevation model data in the acquired terrain geological initial data to obtain preprocessed terrain elevation model data; And respectively converting the fault geometric model data and the reservoir region drainage basin distribution data into a space frame which is the same as the preprocessed terrain elevation model data to obtain the preprocessed fault geometric model data and the preprocessed reservoir region drainage basin distribution data.
3. The quantitative assessment method for the risk of the periphery of the reservoir water storage area according to claim 2 is characterized in that the step 2 specifically comprises the steps of inputting preprocessed terrain elevation model data and fault geometric model data into a finite element grid generator, carrying out three-dimensional grid division on the reservoir water storage area and the periphery area to generate grid files and export the grid files, and reading the exported grid files through a finite element solver to obtain a three-dimensional finite element initial model of the reservoir water storage area and the periphery area.
4. A method of quantitatively evaluating the risk around a reservoir according to claim 3, wherein the material properties include modulus of elasticity, poisson's ratio, density, coefficient of friction and permeability of each unit block; The loading conditions include an initial stress state and a hydraulic loading effect.
5. The quantitative assessment method for the risk around a water storage area of a reservoir according to claim 4, wherein the risk quantification index comprises a surface displacement amount, a coulomb stress variation amount and a future seismic activity variation rate; The step 4 specifically comprises the following steps: step 4.1, converting reservoir water level change data into pressure loading data changing along with time, and inputting the pressure loading data into a finite element solver to act as hydraulic load; step 4.2, setting a simulation time step in a finite element solver, and obtaining the earth surface displacement of the three-dimensional finite element model, the stress variation of each grid point and the pore pressure variation through numerical simulation; Stress is comprised of 、 And These three normal stresses 、 And These three shear stresses; Wherein, the To act in the normal direction as In the plane of the axis and with the direction of the stress vector Positive stress in the axial direction; To act in the normal direction as In the plane of the axis and with the direction of the stress vector Positive stress in the axial direction; To act in the normal direction as In the plane of the axis and with the direction of the stress vector Positive stress in the axial direction; To act in the normal direction as In the plane of the axis and with the direction of the stress vector Shear stress in the axial direction; To act in the normal direction as In the plane of the axis and with the direction of the stress vector Shear stress in the axial direction; To act in the normal direction as In the plane of the axis and with the direction of the stress vector The shear stress in the axial direction is such that, 、 And Respectively constructing three-dimensional finite element initial models in three-dimensional directions; step 4.3, calculating and obtaining coulomb stress variation based on the stress variation of each grid point; step 4.4, calculating to obtain the future earthquake activity change rate based on the coulomb stress change amount; step 4.5, the area with the future earthquake activity change rate being the set multiplying power of the background earthquake occurrence rate is defined as a high earthquake activity area, a risk distribution map is obtained, and the risk distribution map and a risk quantification index form peripheral area risk distribution prediction data together; And 4.6, analyzing the proportion of the actual earthquake in the high earthquake activity area in the historical earthquake observation data to obtain the distribution superposition percentage, adjusting the material attribute according to the rock type, selecting a group of material attribute parameters with the highest distribution superposition percentage as the optimal material attribute of the three-dimensional finite element model, and obtaining the optimal peripheral area danger distribution prediction data.
6. The method for quantitatively evaluating the risk around a water storage area of a reservoir according to claim 5, wherein the coulomb stress variation is calculated based on the following formula: ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In the formula, As a normal vector of the sample, For the angle of the trend, In order to be the inclination angle, In order to provide a sliding direction vector, In order for the sliding angle to be a sliding angle, As a component of the stress, 、 And Respectively traction force, normal stress and shear stress, As the amount of change in the coulomb stress, In order to achieve an effective coefficient of friction, In order to take the form of a dot product, In order to change the amount of shear stress, Is the normal stress variation.
7. The method for quantitative assessment of risk around a reservoir according to claim 5, wherein the future seismic activity rate is calculated based on the following formula: ; In the formula, Is the rate of change of the activity of the earthquake in the future, As a background seismic incidence rate, For the fault rate, For the aftershock decay time, Is the simulation time.
8. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor, when executing the computer program, carries out the steps of the method for quantitative assessment of the risk of the surroundings of a water-storage area of a reservoir according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
9. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program, when being executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for quantitatively evaluating the risk of the surroundings of a water-storage area of a reservoir according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

Description

Quantitative assessment method, equipment and storage medium for danger around reservoir water storage area Technical Field The invention belongs to the technical field of hydraulic engineering and earthquake geological risk assessment, in particular relates to a quantitative assessment method for the peripheral dangers of a reservoir water storage area, and also relates to computer equipment and a storage medium, which are suitable for assessing the influence of reservoir water storage on peripheral geological structures and potential earthquake activities. Background In the reservoir water storage process, the reservoir area, the surrounding fault stress field and the ground surface deformation change can be caused due to the water level lifting and the reservoir area weight change, so that the potential earthquake activity is increased or the geological disaster is triggered. In particular, in the seismic active area or the fault complex area, the geological response brought by reservoir water storage is difficult to accurately predict by an empirical method. In the prior art, the risk assessment method generally depends on a statistical model or a simplified physical model, and cannot fully consider the terrain complexity, fault geometric characteristics and stress responses of different depths. In addition, the traditional method is difficult to relate the dynamic change of the water level and the spatial distribution of geological response, so that the evaluation result has larger deviation, and the scientific basis is lacked to guide the reservoir safety management. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to solve the problems in the prior art, and provides a quantitative assessment method for the peripheral dangers of a reservoir water storage area, and computer equipment and a storage medium, so as to accurately quantify and predict the peripheral geological dangers under the reservoir water storage and different water level conditions. The above object of the present invention is achieved by the following technical means: the quantitative assessment method for the danger around the reservoir water storage area comprises the following steps: Step 1, obtaining initial data of the topography of a reservoir water storage area and the periphery, wherein the initial data of the topography comprises underground component layering model data, topography elevation model data, fault geometric model data, fault constitutive parameter data, reservoir area drainage basin distribution data, rock attribute data and reservoir area water level change data; Preprocessing terrain elevation model data, fault geometric model data and reservoir area drainage basin distribution data in the terrain geological initial data; Step 2, constructing a three-dimensional finite element initial model based on the preprocessed terrain elevation model data and fault geometric model data; Step 3, configuring material properties, physical boundary conditions and loading conditions for a three-dimensional finite element initial model in a finite element solver to obtain a three-dimensional finite element model of a target reservoir water storage area; Step 4, taking reservoir water level change data as input, performing analog calculation to obtain corresponding risk quantification indexes and generating a risk distribution map, so as to obtain peripheral region risk distribution prediction data; optimizing material properties by comparing historical seismic observation data to obtain an optimal three-dimensional finite element model and optimal peripheral region danger distribution prediction data; and 5, acquiring reservoir area water level change data of reservoirs in different water storage periods, and acquiring corresponding peripheral area risk distribution prediction data based on an optimal three-dimensional finite element model. The preprocessing of the terrain elevation model data, fault geometric model data and reservoir area drainage basin distribution data in the terrain geological initial data specifically comprises the following steps: step 1.1, obtaining topography and geological initial data and historical disaster event record data of a reservoir water storage area and a surrounding area, wherein the historical disaster event record data comprises historical earthquake observation data; step 1.2, smoothing, coordinate conversion and resampling are carried out on the terrain elevation model data in the acquired terrain geological initial data to obtain preprocessed terrain elevation model data; And respectively converting the fault geometric model data and the reservoir region drainage basin distribution data into a space frame which is the same as the preprocessed terrain elevation model data to obtain the preprocessed fault geometric model data and the preprocessed reservoir region drainage basin distribution data. The step 2 specifically comprises the following steps of inputting the preprocessed topographic el