CN-121981313-A - Cycle life determining method and system for upgrading and reforming wind power plant

CN121981313ACN 121981313 ACN121981313 ACN 121981313ACN-121981313-A

Abstract

The application provides a circulating life determining method and system for upgrading and reforming a wind power plant, wherein the method comprises the steps of obtaining financial data and operation data of the wind power plant to be upgraded and reformed, respectively predicting key indexes of an old wind turbine unit and a fresh wind turbine unit of the wind power plant to be upgraded and reformed in an operation period based on the financial data and the operation data, wherein the key indexes comprise operation and maintenance cost and equivalent utilization hour coefficients, determining a net benefit present value of the wind power plant in a preset evaluation period when the old wind turbine unit and the fresh wind turbine unit are upgraded and reformed in each year according to the predicted key indexes of the old wind turbine unit and the fresh wind turbine unit in the operation period, and taking the year with the maximized net benefit present value as the economic circulating life of the wind power plant to be upgraded and reformed. The technical scheme provided by the application solves the problem of prediction of no historical data before the operation of the new unit, and provides a scientific and quantitative economic decision basis for upgrading and reforming the wind farm.

Inventors

CAO NUO
LIU YUNHUI
HU JIAQI
WAN CHAO

Assignees

中国电器科学研究院股份有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20251217

Claims (10)

1. A cycle life determination method for wind farm upgrade modification, the method comprising: Acquiring financial data and operation data of a wind power plant to be upgraded and modified; Predicting key indexes of an old fan unit and a fresh air unit of a wind power plant to be upgraded and transformed in an operation period based on the financial data and the operation data respectively, wherein the key indexes comprise operation and maintenance cost and equivalent utilization hour coefficient; and determining a net gain present value of the wind power plant in a preset evaluation period when upgrading and reforming the old fan set in each year according to the predicted key indexes of the old fan set and the fresh air unit in the operation period, and taking the year with the maximized net gain present value as the economic cycle life of the wind power plant to be upgraded and reformed.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the financial data comprises historical operating costs of the old wind farm, maintenance costs of unit capacity at an end of the old wind farm, maintenance costs of unit capacity at an initial end of the old wind farm, proportion of old wind farm fixed assets, depreciation rate of old wind farm fixed assets, residual value of old wind farm fixed assets, one-time investment of old wind farm, annual payable amount and payable period of old wind farm, online price of old wind farm, operating costs of fresh wind farm, proportion of fresh wind farm fixed assets, depreciation rate of fresh wind farm fixed assets, residual value of fresh wind farm, one-time investment of fresh wind farm, annual payable amount and payable period of fresh wind farm; The operation data comprises an old fan annual average equivalent utilization hour number reference value, an old fan annual actual equivalent utilization hour number, an old fan assembly machine capacity, an old fan power curve, an old fan annual energy generation capacity, a wind farm wind speed, a new fan annual average equivalent utilization hour number, a new fan power curve and a new fan assembly machine capacity.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein predicting key metrics for an old wind turbine group to be upgraded to retrofit a wind farm based on the financial data and operational data comprises: Using the formula Fitting to obtain the operation and maintenance cost of the old fan set in the t year, wherein, Is the old fan group The operation and maintenance cost of the year is high, For the first year of operation and maintenance costs of the old fan set, Fitting parameters for historical operation and maintenance cost; Using the formula Fitting to obtain a predicted equivalent utilization hour coefficient of the old fan set in the t year, wherein, Is the old fan group The annual predictive equivalent makes use of the hours coefficient, The hour reference value is utilized for the annual average equivalent of the old fan group, Is the old fan group The actual equivalent of a year utilizes the number of hours, For the first fitting parameters of the old fan set, For the second fitting parameters of the old set of fans, And a third fitting parameter for the old fan set.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein predicting key metrics for a fresh air unit to upgrade a retrofit wind farm based on the financial data and operational data comprises: Using the formula Fitting to obtain the operation and maintenance cost of the fresh air handling unit in the t year, wherein, The operation and maintenance cost of the fresh air handling unit in the t-th year, For the operation and maintenance cost of the fresh air handling unit in the first year, Fitting parameters for the operation and maintenance cost of the fresh air unit; Using the formula Fitting to obtain a predicted equivalent utilization hour coefficient of the fresh air handling unit in the t year, wherein, Is the fresh air unit The annual predictive equivalent makes use of the hours coefficient, The annual average equivalent utilization hours are predicted for the fresh air handling unit, The annual average equivalent utilization hour reference value of the fresh air unit, The first fitting parameter of the fresh air handling unit is used, The second fitting parameter of the fresh air handling unit is used, And the third fitting parameter is the fresh air handling unit.
5. The method of claim 4 wherein the fit parameters for the fresh air unit operating costs are calculated as follows: In the formula, Fitting parameters for the operation and maintenance cost of the fresh air handling unit, Maintenance costs per unit capacity for the end of the old fan set run, Maintenance cost for the unit capacity at the initial stage of the operation of the old fan set, The capacity of the fresh air machine is set up, Capacity for old fan assembly machines.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the determining of the first fitting parameter of the fresh air unit, the second fitting parameter of the fresh air unit, and the third fitting parameter of the fresh air unit comprises: acquiring wind speed frequency distribution data of a region where a wind power plant is located; Fitting a Weibull distribution parameter based on the wind speed frequency distribution data; Calculating a predicted equivalent utilization hour coefficient of the fresh air unit in each future year based on the Weibull distribution parameters, the historical actual equivalent utilization hour coefficient of the old wind turbine unit, the power characteristic parameters of the old wind turbine unit and the power characteristic parameters of the new wind turbine unit, and forming a time sequence based on the predicted equivalent utilization hour coefficient of the fresh air unit in each future year; Performing secondary curve fitting on the calculated time sequence to obtain a first fitting parameter of the fresh air unit, a second fitting parameter of the fresh air unit and a third fitting parameter of the fresh air unit; The power characteristic parameters of the old wind turbine generator comprise the capacity of an old wind turbine assembly machine, the rated power of an old wind turbine, the wind energy utilization coefficient of the old wind turbine, the wind wheel area of the old wind turbine, the cut-in wind speed of an old wind turbine power curve, the rated wind speed of the old wind turbine power curve and the shutdown wind speed of the old wind turbine power curve; The power characteristic parameters of the new wind turbine generator comprise fresh air machine assembly capacity, rated power of a new wind machine, wind energy utilization coefficient of the new wind machine, wind wheel area of the new wind machine, cut-in wind speed of a power curve of the new wind machine, rated wind speed of the power curve of the new wind machine and shutdown wind speed of the power curve of the new wind machine.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the economic cycle life of the wind farm to be upgraded and retrofitted is calculated as follows: In the formula, For the economic cycle life of the wind farm to be upgraded and rebuilt, Is the first Annual wind farm revenues, Is the first The annual wind farm expenditure is given up, In order to achieve the discount rate, Is the estimated period.
8. A cycle life determination system for wind farm upgrade retrofit, the system comprising: The acquisition module is used for acquiring financial data and operation data of the wind power plant to be upgraded and modified; the prediction module is used for respectively predicting key indexes of an old fan unit and a fresh air unit of the wind power plant to be upgraded and transformed in an operation period based on the financial data and the operation data, wherein the key indexes comprise operation and maintenance cost and equivalent utilization hour coefficients; And the determining module is used for determining a net current gain value of the wind power plant in a preset evaluation period when the old fan set is updated in each year according to the predicted key indexes of the old fan set and the fresh air set in the operation period, and taking the year with the maximized net current gain value as the economic cycle life of the wind power plant to be updated.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the method according to any of claims 1-7 when executing the program.
10. A computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the program, when being executed by a processor, implements the method according to any of claims 1-7.

Description

Cycle life determining method and system for upgrading and reforming wind power plant Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of green circulation of wind power plants, in particular to a circulating life determining method and system for upgrading and reforming a wind power plant. Background Due to the encouragement of wind power policy and the reduction of wind power construction cost, a large number of wind power plants are constructed and put into use, and continuous clean energy is brought. The economical efficiency of wind power project construction is always an important index, and the commonly adopted evaluation index is the leveling degree electric cost (Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE). LCOE calculations assume that fans are not retired until their service life (20-25 years) and can therefore be used to evaluate the long-term economics of wind farms. However, due to the influence of factors such as power generation income, operation and maintenance cost, enterprise operation conditions and the like, fans of a wind farm can be retired until the service life is reached. Thus, there is a need for an operating economy scheme that considers both the old and fresh air handling units. Disclosure of Invention The application provides a circulating life determining method and a circulating life determining system for upgrading and reforming a wind power plant, which at least solve the technical problem that fans of the wind power plant are likely to be retired before reaching the service life due to the influence of factors such as power generation income, operation and maintenance cost, enterprise operation conditions and the like. An embodiment of a first aspect of the present application proposes a cycle life determination method for wind farm upgrade modification, the method comprising: Acquiring financial data and operation data of a wind power plant to be upgraded and modified; Predicting key indexes of an old fan unit and a fresh air unit of a wind power plant to be upgraded and transformed in an operation period based on the financial data and the operation data respectively, wherein the key indexes comprise operation and maintenance cost and equivalent utilization hour coefficient; and determining a net gain present value of the wind power plant in a preset evaluation period when upgrading and reforming the old fan set in each year according to the predicted key indexes of the old fan set and the fresh air unit in the operation period, and taking the year with the maximized net gain present value as the economic cycle life of the wind power plant to be upgraded and reformed. Preferably, the financial data comprises historical operation and maintenance cost of the old fan set, maintenance cost of unit capacity of the old fan set at the final stage of operation, maintenance cost of unit capacity of the old fan set at the initial stage of operation, fixed asset proportion of the old wind power plant, fixed asset depreciation rate of the old wind power plant, fixed asset residual value of the old wind power plant, disposable investment of the old wind power plant, annual payable financing amount and repayment period of the old wind power plant, online electricity price of the old wind power plant, operation and maintenance cost of a fresh air unit, fixed asset proportion of the fresh air plant, fixed asset depreciation rate of the fresh air plant, fixed asset residual value of the fresh air plant, disposable investment of the fresh air plant, annual payable financing amount and repayment period of the fresh air plant; The operation data comprises an old fan annual average equivalent utilization hour number reference value, an old fan annual actual equivalent utilization hour number, an old fan assembly machine capacity, an old fan power curve, an old fan annual energy generation capacity, a wind farm wind speed, a new fan annual average equivalent utilization hour number, a new fan power curve and a new fan assembly machine capacity. Further, predicting key indexes of an old wind turbine group to be upgraded and reformed into the wind farm based on the financial data and the operation data comprises: Using the formula Fitting to obtain the operation and maintenance cost of the old fan set in the t year, wherein,Is the old fan groupThe operation and maintenance cost of the year is high,For the first year of operation and maintenance costs of the old fan set,Fitting parameters for historical operation and maintenance cost; Using the formula Fitting to obtain the equivalent utilization hour coefficient of the old fan set in the t year, wherein,Is the old fan groupThe annual predictive equivalent makes use of the hours coefficient,The hour reference value is utilized for the annual average equivalent of the old fan group,Is the old fan groupThe actual equivalent of a year utilizes the number of hours,For the first fitting parameters of the old fan set,For the second fitting parameter