CN-121981398-A - Method, system, equipment and medium for evaluating landscape hydrologic regulation function in alpine region

CN121981398ACN 121981398 ACN121981398 ACN 121981398ACN-121981398-A

Abstract

The invention provides a method, a system, equipment and a medium for evaluating a landscape hydrologic regulation function in a alpine region, belonging to the technical field of environmental simulation and prediction, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the method utilizes the high-cold landscape data, the meteorological hydrologic data and the different future climate scene data, firstly predicts the high-cold landscape pattern under each scene by the PLUS model, then carries out calibration and verification on the parameters of the VIC model according to the field runoff field observation data, and simulates key hydrologic elements such as the water yield of each high-cold landscape type under different future scenes on the basis, thereby realizing an evaluation system with complete flow, compact logic and reliable result. The method solves the problem of inaccurate estimation of the future hydrologic evolution trend of the alpine region.

Inventors

QIN JIA
YANG BINGFENG
YANG JIANFENG
CUI JUNHAO

Assignees

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260128

Claims (10)

1. The method for evaluating the landscape hydrologic regulation function in the alpine region is characterized by comprising the following steps of: acquiring historical land utilization data and landscape variation driving factors of a target cold region and actually measured hydrologic data; taking historical land utilization data and landscape variation driving factors as inputs of a land utilization variation prediction model, and simulating to generate landscape pattern space distribution data of future target years; Establishing a runoff probability prediction model based on the actually measured hydrologic data by adopting binary logistic regression, extracting dynamic runoff threshold values of different high-cold landscape types based on the runoff probability prediction model, taking the dynamic runoff threshold values as priori knowledge, and carrying out iterative optimization on a plurality of groups of parameters in the VIC hydrologic model by combining the actually measured soil temperature and the liquid water content profile data; Inputting the spatial distribution data of the landscape pattern into a VIC hydrological model for completion calibration and verification, so as to drive the VIC hydrological model to simulate hydrological response processes of different landscape types under corresponding climatic situations, and obtaining the spatial distribution data of hydrological elements of the target alpine region under future situations; And generating a hydrologic regulation function evaluation result based on the hydrologic element spatial distribution data.
2. The method for evaluating the landscape hydrologic regulation function in the alpine region according to claim 1, wherein the historical land use data and the landscape variation driving factor are used as inputs of a land use variation prediction model, and the landscape pattern space distribution data of the future target year is generated by simulation, specifically comprising the following steps: Extracting expansion information of a land utilization type based on the historical land utilization data; Calculating neighborhood weights of various landscape types according to the expansion information; analyzing the association relation between the expansion information of the land utilization type and the landscape variation driving factor through a random forest algorithm to obtain the development probability of various landscape types in the alpine region; and simulating and generating the landscape pattern space distribution data of the future target year under different climatic situations by adopting a CA model based on a plurality of types of random plaque seeds according to the development probability, the neighborhood weight and the land utilization transfer matrix set based on the historical land utilization change rule.
3. The method for evaluating the hydrologic regulation function of a landscape in a alpine region according to claim 1, wherein the observation device comprises an automatic weather station, a standard radial flow field, a micro-lysimeter and a double-ring infiltration meter, wherein the rainfall is obtained through monitoring of a self-metering skip rain gauge in the automatic weather station, the runoff is calculated through observation of the standard radial flow field and combination of a weighing method, the evapotranspiration is calculated through observation of the micro-lysimeter and combination of a water balance method, and the soil water content is calculated through water balance during observation of the micro-lysimeter.
4. The method for evaluating the hydrologic regulation function of landscapes in alpine regions according to claim 2, wherein the dynamic runoff threshold of different alpine landscapes is expressed as: P= ; and when P=0.5, solving a flow formula of different high-cold landscapes under the specific early-stage soil moisture content and the evapotranspiration condition, thereby determining the dynamic flow threshold value of the landscapes.
5. The method for evaluating the hydrologic regulation function of landscapes in alpine regions according to claim 1, wherein the neighborhood weights of various landscape types are calculated according to the expansion information, and are expressed as: ; ; Neighborhood weights for the i-th landscape type; Expanding the area for the i-th landscape; minimum expansion area for each landscape type; The maximum expansion area for each landscape type; for presetting the landscape area of the class i to the class j from the beginning to the end, i=1, 2,3, ⋯, n, j=1, 2,3, ⋯, n, and n is the number of the landscape types.
6. The method for evaluating the hydrologic regulation function of a landscape in a alpine region according to claim 1, wherein the landscape variation driving factors include climate factors, topography factors, soil factors and socioeconomic factors.
7. The evaluation method of the hydrologic regulation function of the landscape in the alpine region according to claim 1, wherein the accuracy verification is performed on the landscape pattern spatial distribution data generated by simulation by using Kappa coefficients and FoM coefficients, so as to obtain the landscape pattern spatial distribution data meeting the preset accuracy requirement.
8. A system for evaluating hydrologic regulation function of landscapes in alpine regions, comprising: The data acquisition module is used for acquiring historical land utilization data and landscape variation driving factors of the target cold region and actually measured hydrologic data; The landscape pattern prediction module is used for taking historical land utilization data and landscape variation driving factors as inputs of a land utilization variation prediction model and simulating and generating landscape pattern space distribution data of future target years; The model calibration module is used for establishing a runoff probability prediction model based on the actually measured hydrologic data by adopting binary logistic regression, extracting dynamic runoff thresholds of different high-cold landscape types based on the runoff probability prediction model, taking the dynamic runoff thresholds as priori knowledge, and carrying out iterative optimization on a plurality of groups of parameters in the VIC hydrologic model by combining the actually measured soil temperature and the liquid water content profile data; the hydrologic simulation module is used for inputting the spatial distribution data of the landscape pattern into a VIC hydrologic model for completion calibration and verification so as to drive the VIC hydrologic model to simulate hydrologic response processes of different landscape types under corresponding climatic situations, and obtain the spatial distribution data of hydrologic elements of the target alpine region under future situations; And the evaluation module is used for generating a hydrologic regulation function evaluation result based on the hydrologic element spatial distribution data.
9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the method of any of the preceding claims 1 to 7 when the program is executed.
10. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the storage medium stores a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the method of any of the preceding claims 1-7.

Description

Method, system, equipment and medium for evaluating landscape hydrologic regulation function in alpine region Technical Field The invention belongs to the technical field of environmental simulation and prediction, and particularly relates to a method, a system, equipment and a medium for evaluating a landscape hydrologic regulation function in a alpine region. Background The runoff forming process of the alpine region is commonly regulated and controlled by the hydrologic regulation functions of typical landscapes such as glaciers, cold deserts, bushes, alpine meadows and the like, vegetation landscapes influence the redistribution of precipitation and snow melt through the processes such as canopy interception, evaporation, soil infiltration and the like, the alpine deserts become important runoff regions due to high infiltration rate, the hydrologic regulation functions of different landscape elements are accurately quantized, future change trend of the hydrologic regulation functions is predicted, and the important technology requirements and the core scientific problems faced by the management of water resources and ecological protection of the alpine region are already achieved. The current method mainly relies on hydrologic models such as VIC, SWAT and the like to perform macroscopic simulation, and performs hydrologic simulation through underlying conditions based on static and historical conditions, and the method can evaluate overall water balance and quantify the flow production capacity and altitude difference of different landscape types, but the simulation result is more reflected by comprehensive hydrologic effects, so that the inherent mechanism of different landscapes (such as desert, shrubs and meadow) on hydrologic regulation functions and the specific contribution of the different landscapes to the surface key hydrologic processes (such as interception, infiltration and evapotranspiration) are difficult to directly reveal, and the management measures lack pertinence. The existing research is advanced in the local processes of runoff coefficient, moisture retention, rainfall redistribution and the like, but the system quantification of different landscape hydrologic regulation capacity and runoff contribution rate is still lacking, the quantitative association of landscape patterns and a river basin runoff mechanism is difficult to establish, and the effective formulation of the precise management and ecological restoration strategy of the water resources in the alpine region is limited. In summary, in the prior art, it is difficult to accurately quantify the space-time dynamic changes and attributions of different high-cold landscape elements in a research area under the climate change background, so that the future hydrologic evolution trend of the high-cold area is estimated inaccurately. Disclosure of Invention In order to solve the problem of inaccurate prediction of future hydrologic evolution trend in a alpine region, the invention provides a method, a system, equipment and a medium for evaluating landscape hydrologic regulation function in the alpine region. In a first aspect of the embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a method for evaluating a hydrologic regulation function of a landscape in a alpine region, including the steps of: acquiring historical land utilization data and landscape variation driving factors of a target cold region and actually measured hydrologic data; taking historical land utilization data and landscape variation driving factors as inputs of a land utilization variation prediction model, and simulating to generate landscape pattern space distribution data of future target years; Establishing a runoff probability prediction model based on the actually measured hydrologic data by adopting binary logistic regression, extracting dynamic runoff threshold values of different high-cold landscape types based on the runoff probability prediction model, taking the dynamic runoff threshold values as priori knowledge, and carrying out iterative optimization on a plurality of groups of parameters in the VIC hydrologic model by combining the actually measured soil temperature and the liquid water content profile data; Inputting the spatial distribution data of the landscape pattern into a VIC hydrological model for completion calibration and verification, so as to drive the VIC hydrological model to simulate hydrological response processes of different landscape types under corresponding climatic situations, and obtaining the spatial distribution data of hydrological elements of the target alpine region under future situations; And generating a hydrologic regulation function evaluation result based on the hydrologic element spatial distribution data. Further, the step of using the historical land use data and the landscape change driving factor as inputs of a land use change prediction model to simulate and generate landscape pattern space distributio