CN-121981452-A - Zero-carbon park energy-carbon cooperative scheduling and nuclear evidence closed-loop method and system

CN121981452ACN 121981452 ACN121981452 ACN 121981452ACN-121981452-A

Abstract

The application provides a zero-carbon park energy-carbon cooperative scheduling and nuclear verification closed-loop method and system, and relates to the field of micro-grid energy management. The method comprises the steps of collecting park operation data and aligning the data to generate fusion carbon intensity, calculating a current carbon account book and a carbon budget margin, solving carbon emission constraint under the condition that constraint parameters are met to obtain a scheduling instruction aiming at minimizing operation cost and meeting carbon emission constraint conditions, carrying out carbon emission backfill accounting and verification on an executed period, updating the current carbon account book and the fusion parameters, generating an auditable trace record, feeding the updated fusion parameters back to a next rolling scheduling period, and correcting the fusion carbon intensity of a next rolling scheduling decision in the next rolling scheduling period by using the updated fusion parameters. The application can process the delay and deviation of the carbon intensity signal, and give consideration to the consistency of near real-time low-carbon scheduling and post-verification, form an auditable MRV closed loop, and improve the reliability and verifiability of long-term operation of a zero-carbon park.

Inventors

WANG JIANGFENG
Lian Lingxiang
LOU JUWEI
CHEN LIANGQI
WANG NAN

Assignees

西安交通大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260112

Claims (10)

1. A zero-carbon park energy-carbon cooperative scheduling and nuclear evidence closed-loop method is characterized in that the method comprises the following steps in any rolling scheduling period: collecting park operation data and aligning; Acquiring predicted carbon intensity of a future scheduling period and backfill carbon intensity of an ending scheduling period, and generating fusion carbon intensity for a current rolling scheduling decision by combining fusion parameters; calculating the carbon budget margin in the current carbon account book and the current rolling window based on the fused carbon intensity and the park operation data; Receiving the fused carbon strength, the carbon budget margin and the park operation data by using a carbon-collaborative rolling scheduling optimization model, and solving the carbon-collaborative rolling scheduling optimization model under the condition of meeting constraint parameters to obtain a scheduling instruction aiming at minimizing the operation cost and meeting carbon emission constraint conditions; outputting and executing the scheduling instruction, and obtaining execution data after executing the scheduling instruction; after the backfill carbon intensity reaches, carrying out carbon emission backfill accounting and verification on the executed time period based on the execution data, updating the current carbon account book and the fusion parameters, and generating auditable trace records containing scheduling instruction input, scheduling instruction output and carbon emission accounting results; and feeding the updated fusion parameters back to the next rolling scheduling period, and correcting the fusion carbon strength of the next rolling scheduling decision by using the updated fusion parameters when the fusion carbon strength of the next rolling scheduling decision is generated in the next rolling scheduling period.
2. The zero-carbon park energy-carbon co-scheduling and nuclear verification closed-loop method of claim 1, wherein collecting and aligning park operation data comprises: collecting bidirectional electric energy metering data of grid connection points of a park, sub-metering data, equipment running state data and key running data of public and auxiliary systems; And performing time stamp synchronization or alignment on the grid-connected point bidirectional electric energy metering data, the sub-item metering data, the equipment running state data and the public and auxiliary system key running data, and performing missing detection and data quality marking to provide basic data for subsequent scheduling, accounting and trace remaining.
3. The zero-carbon park energy-carbon collaborative scheduling and nuclear verification closed-loop method of claim 1, wherein obtaining a predicted carbon intensity for a future scheduling period and a backfill carbon intensity for an ending scheduling period, in combination with a fusion parameter, generates a fusion carbon intensity for a current rolling scheduling decision, comprises: acquiring the predicted carbon strength and the backfill carbon strength; calculating a release delay based on an end timestamp of the ended scheduling period and an available timestamp of the backfilled carbon strength; Generating a backfill carbon intensity correction estimated value of a cost scheduling period through deviation correction, filtering estimation or regression fit based on the backfill carbon intensity sequence, generating the fusion carbon intensity by combining the predicted carbon intensity and the fusion weight in the fusion parameter, and generating data credibility and an error band in the fusion parameter associated with the fusion carbon intensity; The backfill carbon intensity sequence refers to a sequence obtained by sequencing the backfill carbon intensities of all the finished scheduling periods according to a time sequence; The fusion weight characterizes the contribution ratio of the predicted carbon intensity and the backfill correction estimated value in the fusion carbon intensity; the data reliability represents the reliability score of the carbon signal in the scheduling period, and the larger the value is, the higher the reliability is; the error band characterizes the uncertainty amplitude or error band of the carbon intensity of the present scheduling period.
4. The zero-carbon park carbon co-scheduling and nuclear evidence closed-loop method of claim 3, wherein obtaining the predicted carbon strength and the backfill carbon strength comprises: acquiring the predicted carbon intensity by using an external carbon intensity service, regional power grid public data or a park self-building prediction model; Acquiring the backfilled carbon intensity after the scheduling period is finished; aligning the predicted carbon intensity and the backfill carbon intensity with a scheduling period, specifically comprising: let the scheduling period be divided into T scheduling periods, T e {1,2,., T }, the time resolution of each scheduling period being ; Let the time resolution of the carbon intensity signal be The carbon intensity signal comprises the predicted carbon intensity, the backfill carbon intensity and the fusion carbon intensity; aligning the carbon intensity signals to corresponding scheduling periods using a mapping rule: When (when) < Mapping the carbon intensity value in the same carbon intensity signal interval to a plurality of scheduling time periods; When (when) = When the carbon intensity signals are in one-to-one correspondence with the scheduling periods; When (when) > And when the power supply system is used, the weighted average is carried out on a plurality of carbon intensity signal intervals covering the scheduling period according to the time length or the power contribution so as to generate the carbon intensity value corresponding to the scheduling period.
5. The zero-carbon park energy-carbon co-scheduling and nuclear verification closed-loop method of claim 3, wherein the fused carbon strength The expression of (2) is: In the above-mentioned method, the step of, For the fusion weights to be used in the present invention, Correcting an estimate of backfill carbon intensity for a scheduling period t, which is determined by the backfill carbon intensity sequence Generated by bias correction, filter estimation or regression fit, wherein, , A latest period of time representing currently available backfill carbon intensity data, delayed by the release Determining; the expression of the release delay is: In the above-mentioned method, the step of, As an available timestamp of the backfill carbon strength, And an ending time stamp for the ended scheduling period.
6. The zero-carbon park carbon collaborative scheduling and checkmark closed-loop method of claim 1, wherein calculating a carbon budget margin within a current carbon ledger and a current rolling window comprises: Recording the grid-connected point power of a park as Wherein And >0 represents the purchase of electricity, <0 Represents surfing; To purchase electric energy The expression is as follows: Correlating the corresponding electric power with carbon emission Expressed as: In the scheduling stage, the fused carbon strength is adopted based on meeting the near real-time requirement of rolling optimization Interim estimate carbon emissions for a target period and for carbon budget constraints, backfill carbon strength when the target period After reaching, the backfill carbon strength is adopted in the nuclear evidence stage Backfilling and accounting the carbon emission in the target period, and updating the current carbon account book and the carbon budget margin according to the backfilling and accounting result to ensure consistency of scheduling estimation and post-verification; If there is fuel consumption in the park, the fuel consumption is calculated Corresponding to the calculation of emission factor EF The expression is: The total emission of the park is recorded as ; During the backfill accounting process, the current carbon account book The update is accumulated according to the time period, and the expression is as follows: Accumulating updated current carbon account book according to time intervals, and forming the latest carbon budget margin by combining with a zero-clearing target And taking the latest carbon budget margin as a constraint input parameter of the carbon collaborative rolling scheduling optimization model to form an accumulated discharge upper limit in a rolling window.
7. The zero-carbon park carbon co-scheduling and nuclear verification closed loop method of claim 1, wherein the minimizing the operating cost as a function of meeting carbon emission constraints is: In the above-mentioned method, the step of, In order to realize the time-sharing electricity price, For the weight of carbon or the equivalent carbon number, For the cost of the equipment to be lost, Weighting it; Constraining the carbon emissions; the energy is purchased; The constraint parameters comprise electric energy balance constraint, equipment operation constraint, carbon emission constraint and public and auxiliary system process constraint, wherein the public and auxiliary system process constraint comprises steam main pipe pressure constraint, compressed air pipe network pressure constraint, chilled water supply and return water temperature range constraint, equipment start-stop times and minimum start-stop time constraint; the carbon emission constraint adopts a hard constraint form, and the expression is as follows: Or the carbon emission constraint adopts a conservation constraint form considering an error band, and the expression is as follows: In the above-mentioned description of the invention, Budget margin for carbon within the rolling window, wherein, , For the fused carbon strength.
8. The zero-carbon park energy-carbon cooperative scheduling and nuclear verification closed-loop method of claim 3, wherein outputting and executing the scheduling instruction comprises: When the scheduling instruction can not be executed, releasing non-critical constraint according to priority, and executing the scheduling instruction again after maintaining the constraint related to safety and process; when the predicted carbon intensity or the backfill carbon intensity is absent or the data reliability is lower than a preset threshold value, setting the carbon emission constraint to be in a conservative constraint form considering an error band or adopting a historical upper bound carbon intensity as a temporary substitute, and then executing the scheduling instruction again; and when the communication is abnormal or the equipment fails, entering a safety control mode, and not executing the scheduling instruction any more, and recording an abnormal event corresponding to the communication abnormality or the equipment failure for subsequent verification and explanation.
9. The zero-carbon park energy-carbon co-scheduling and nuclear verification closed-loop method of claim 8, wherein the auditable trace record further comprises: The source and time stamp of each of the predicted carbon intensity and the backfill carbon intensity; the calculation result of the release delay; The fusion carbon strength, the data of the fusion parameters and the version identification; The carbon budget margin in the current scheduling period, the activation state of constraint parameters, and the curve of the output of the scheduling instruction and the execution data after actual execution; and calculating a result of the carbon emission backfill calculation, a deviation between the predicted carbon intensity and the backfill carbon intensity in the current scheduling period and the abnormal event.
10. The zero-carbon park energy-carbon cooperative scheduling and nuclear evidence closed-loop system is characterized in that the system is configured to: The data acquisition and alignment module is used for acquiring the park operation data and aligning the park operation data; the carbon intensity obtaining and fusing module is used for obtaining the predicted carbon intensity of a future scheduling period and the backfill carbon intensity of an ended scheduling period, and generating fused carbon intensity for a current rolling scheduling decision by combining fusion parameters; the carbon account book and budget management module is used for calculating carbon budget allowance in the current carbon account book and the current rolling window based on the fused carbon intensity and the park operation data; The carbon cooperative rolling scheduling module is used for receiving the fused carbon strength, the carbon budget margin and the park operation data by utilizing a carbon cooperative rolling scheduling optimization model, and solving the carbon cooperative rolling scheduling optimization model under the condition of meeting constraint parameters to obtain a scheduling instruction aiming at minimizing the operation cost and meeting carbon emission constraint conditions; the execution acquisition module is used for outputting and executing the scheduling instruction and acquiring execution data after executing the scheduling instruction; the updating and generating trace record module is used for carrying out carbon emission backfilling accounting and verification on the executed time period based on the execution data after the backfilling carbon intensity is reached, updating the current carbon account book and the fusion parameters, and generating an auditable trace record containing scheduling instruction input, output and carbon emission accounting results; and the feedback correction module is used for feeding the updated fusion parameters back to the next rolling scheduling period, and correcting the fusion carbon strength of the next rolling scheduling decision by using the updated fusion parameters when the fusion carbon strength of the next rolling scheduling decision is generated in the next rolling scheduling period.

Description

Zero-carbon park energy-carbon cooperative scheduling and nuclear evidence closed-loop method and system Technical Field The application relates to the field of micro-grid energy management, in particular to a zero-carbon park energy-carbon collaborative scheduling and nuclear verification closed-loop method and system. Background At present, the operation management of a zero-carbon park and a low-carbon park generally adopts a park Energy Management System (EMS) or a comprehensive energy management platform, and mainly aims at electric charge, demand, energy efficiency and the like, and optimally schedules distributed power sources (such as photovoltaics), energy storage, adjustable loads and partial cold and hot systems in the park. Some schemes may also introduce carbon emission constraints or carbon costs (e.g., using fixed or time-varying carbon factors, carbon trade prices) to achieve low carbon goals. However, in engineering applications, the following problems are generally existed in the prior art: (1) The carbon signal delay and uncertainty are not processed by engineering, and the carbon signal delay and uncertainty are not processed by engineering because the carbon intensity or the carbon factor of the power grid often have release delay, and the predicted value and the actual value or the estimated actual value have deviation, so that the existing scheduling is mainly directly implemented by using a single carbon factor sequence, and the real-time decision and the consistency of post-verification are difficult to be considered. (2) The scheduling and the nuclear evidence splitting are realized because most schemes in the prior art focus on a scheduling algorithm, and carbon accounting and nuclear evidence (MRV) stay at a post-event statistical report level, so that a closed loop of 'prediction-execution-backfilling-correction' cannot be formed, and therefore, the 'scheduling at that time' is difficult to explain, and an auditable evidence chain is difficult to give. (3) The evidence chain mechanism of auditable trace is lacking, namely, the carbon signal version, the data quality, the constraint state, the decision output and the execution deviation reason used in the process of needing to trace back the scheduling are generally in the scenes of zero-carbon park acceptance, third party check or enterprise disclosure, and the prior art is difficult to fully reproduce. (4) The industrial park is provided with public and auxiliary systems such as steam, cold stations, compressed air and the like, and has process hard constraints such as pressure, temperature and the like and operation constraints such as start-stop, climbing and the like, and the prior art is used for simply and equivalently treating the industrial park as an electric load, so that the scheduling feasibility is insufficient or the operation risk is increased. Disclosure of Invention In view of the above problems, the application provides a zero-carbon park energy-carbon cooperative scheduling and verification closed-loop method and system, which overcome the defects of the prior art. In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for energy-carbon collaborative scheduling and nuclear verification closed loop in a zero-carbon park, where in any rolling scheduling period: collecting park operation data and aligning; Acquiring predicted carbon intensity of a future scheduling period and backfill carbon intensity of an ending scheduling period, and generating fusion carbon intensity for a current rolling scheduling decision by combining fusion parameters; calculating the carbon budget margin in the current carbon account book and the current rolling window based on the fused carbon intensity and the park operation data; Receiving the fused carbon strength, the carbon budget margin and the park operation data by using a carbon-collaborative rolling scheduling optimization model, and solving the carbon-collaborative rolling scheduling optimization model under the condition of meeting constraint parameters to obtain a scheduling instruction aiming at minimizing the operation cost and meeting carbon emission constraint conditions; outputting and executing the scheduling instruction, and obtaining execution data after executing the scheduling instruction; after the backfill carbon intensity reaches, carrying out carbon emission backfill accounting and verification on the executed time period based on the execution data, updating the current carbon account book and the fusion parameters, and generating auditable trace records containing scheduling instruction input, scheduling instruction output and carbon emission accounting results; and feeding the updated fusion parameters back to the next rolling scheduling period, and correcting the fusion carbon strength of the next rolling scheduling decision by using the updated fusion parameters when the fusion carbon strength of the next rolling scheduling decision