CN-121981458-A - Gucun tourist carrying capacity monitoring and shunting regulation method

CN121981458ACN 121981458 ACN121981458 ACN 121981458ACN-121981458-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for monitoring and shunting regulation of the carrying capacity of tourists in ancient villages, which comprises the steps of constructing a multi-level micro-unit division system based on the protection level and the space topological characteristic of cultural relics, determining the safety threshold of the carrying capacity by combining channel width assessment and space permeability analysis, deploying a stereoscopic perception network with priority of cultural relics protection, realizing the accurate perception of the whole-domain passenger flow, constructing a short-time prediction model integrating historical passenger flow, reservation information, weather and activity factors, predicting the trend of the passenger flow in the future period and triggering grading early warning, establishing an experience quality assessment mechanism based on the residence time and the passing speed of the tourists, adjusting the strength of a shunting strategy, forming a regulation effect feedback and parameter optimization closed loop, optimizing system parameters, and setting a double-bottom line early warning mechanism of the vibration and the micro-unit density of the body of the ancient villages, so as to ensure the safety. The problem of unbalanced bearing capacity of overload of a narrow channel and idle in an open area is effectively solved, the balance of cultural relic protection and tourist experience is realized, and the scenic spot management efficiency and the tourist satisfaction are improved.

Inventors

WANG ROU
HU HONGLIN
WANG SI
Hong Xiafang

Assignees

豫章师范学院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260116

Claims (7)

1. The method for monitoring and shunting regulation and control of the load of tourists in ancient villages is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Constructing a multi-level micro-unit division system based on the protection level of the ancient village cultural relics and the space topological structure characteristics, and determining the bearing capacity safety threshold value of each micro-unit through channel width evaluation and space permeability analysis; The method comprises the steps of deploying a stereoscopic perception network with priority of cultural relic protection, comprising deploying video monitoring and infrared counting equipment in a non-cultural relic building area, deploying non-contact millimeter wave sensors around the cultural relic building, and arranging a mobile terminal signal acquisition device in a public area; A short-time passenger flow prediction model based on a historical passenger flow rule and external influence factors is constructed, historical passenger flow data, reservation information, weather conditions and special activity factors are comprehensively analyzed, and the tourist number change trend of each micro unit in a future period is predicted; Establishing a quality of experience assessment mechanism based on the tourist residence characteristics and the passing efficiency, quantitatively assessing the quality of experience of the tourists by monitoring the distribution of the tourist residence time and the change of the moving speed in each area, and adjusting a diversion regulation strategy according to the quality of experience assessment result and the degree of overrun of the load; constructing a regulation and control effect feedback mechanism, recording passenger flow distribution change data before and after implementation of regulation and control measures, and optimizing micro-unit partition parameters, early warning threshold setting and a regulation and control strategy library through historical effect comparison analysis; And establishing a safety double-bottom line early warning mechanism for the protection of the ancient village and tourists, and starting an emergency evacuation plan when the safety red line with the vibration amplitude exceeding a safety threshold value or the microcell density exceeding the maximum bearing capacity of the ancient village body is monitored.
2. The method for monitoring and regulating and controlling the load capacity of tourists in ancient villages according to claim 1, wherein the constructing a multi-level micro-unit division system to determine the load capacity safety threshold of each micro-unit comprises: Dividing the ancient village into a plurality of primary areas according to the cultural relic protection level, wherein each stage of cultural relic protection unit and the direct influence range thereof form independent primary areas; in each first-level region, carrying out second-level division based on network connectivity of a street and space morphological characteristics, classifying adjacent regions with similar traffic conditions and space characteristics into the same second-level unit, carrying out third-level subdivision by combining functional purposes and guest behavior characteristics, and dividing regions with similar guest activity modes into the same third-level unit; The method comprises the steps of determining the bearing capacity safety threshold of each micro unit through channel width assessment and space permeability analysis, wherein the channel width assessment comprises the steps of measuring the effective width of each passing path and identifying bottleneck areas, the space permeability analysis comprises the step of assessing sight accessibility and space openness, and the safety threshold of the maximum bearing capacity of each micro unit is determined based on the assessment result.
3. The method for monitoring and regulating the load of tourists in ancient villages according to claim 1, wherein the activating the boundary adjustment mechanism comprises: The boundary adjustment mechanism comprises two modes, namely static adjustment and dynamic adjustment, wherein the static adjustment is based on seasonal passenger flow rule change, micro-unit boundary schemes of different seasons and different time periods are preset, and the dynamic adjustment is based on monitoring data, and when detecting that the difference of the passenger flow densities of adjacent micro-units exceeds a preset threshold or the bearing capacity of a single micro-unit reaches an early warning threshold, a virtual boundary movement algorithm is activated to redistribute the management boundary of the adjacent units.
4. The method for monitoring and regulating and controlling the load of tourists in ancient villages according to claim 1, wherein the predicting the trend of the number of tourists in each micro unit in the future period comprises: the method comprises the steps of constructing a short-time passenger flow prediction model based on a history passenger flow rule and external influence factors, wherein the short-time passenger flow prediction model comprises a data acquisition layer, a feature extraction layer, a prediction calculation layer and a result output layer; The prediction calculation layer adopts a combined prediction strategy and comprises a basic prediction model and a correction adjustment model, wherein the basic prediction model establishes a basic passenger flow prediction curve of each micro unit by applying a time sequence analysis method based on historical contemporaneous passenger flow data; the basic prediction model is as follows Wherein As a basis passenger flow prediction value, For each microcell traffic data on the i th date of the history synchronization, For each micro-unit passenger flow data of the j th week of the history synchronization, alpha is a time weight coefficient, and beta is a period weight coefficient; the correction and adjustment model is as follows Wherein For the final predicted value, RC is the reserved data completion rate, WCI is the weather comfort index, A is the special activity intensity, gamma is the reserved data weight coefficient, delta is the weather comfort weight coefficient, epsilon is the activity intensity weight coefficient; The result output layer generates a prediction result with multiple time granularities, marks a prediction credibility level, and sets different prediction time windows for different areas according to the space characteristics and management requirements of the ancient villages.
5. The method for monitoring and regulating and controlling the load of tourists in ancient villages according to claim 1, wherein the triggering step-by-step early warning mechanism comprises the following steps: When the bearing capacity of a certain micro unit is predicted to exceed the pre-warning threshold value of the bearing capacity within a preset time range, triggering a hierarchical pre-warning mechanism, dividing the pre-warning level into four levels of a reminding attention level, a preparation intervention level, an active regulation level and an emergency response level, and matching a response strategy according to a management measure library preset in an associated mode of the pre-warning level.
6. The method for monitoring and regulating and controlling the load of tourists in ancient villages according to claim 1, wherein the quantitatively evaluating the quality of experience of the tourists comprises: the method comprises the steps of establishing a quality of experience assessment mechanism based on tourist stay characteristics and passing efficiency, wherein the quality of experience assessment mechanism comprises an experience data acquisition module, a quality index calculation module and an assessment result generation module, wherein the experience data acquisition module acquires stay time sequences and movement track data of tourists in each micro unit through a perception network, distinguishes three behavior modes of short stay, normal tour and long-time stay, and records average passing speed and speed fluctuation conditions of the tourists in different areas; The evaluation result generation module adopts a hierarchical quantization method to divide the quality of experience of tourists into four grades of comfort, moderate, crowded and severely crowded, and each grade corresponds to an explicit behavior characteristic description and a threshold range.
7. The method for monitoring and regulating the load of tourists in ancient villages according to claim 1, wherein the adjusting the implementation strength and mode of the regulation strategy comprises: And adjusting the implementation strength and mode of the shunt regulation strategy according to the experience quality evaluation result and the bearing overrun degree, and establishing a two-dimensional decision matrix, wherein one dimension is the experience quality grade, the other dimension is the bearing overrun proportion, and the decision matrix divides the regulation strategy into four types of prompting guidance type, path optimization type, flow limitation type and emergency regulation type, and different combinations correspond to different strategy types.

Description

Gucun tourist carrying capacity monitoring and shunting regulation method Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of travel management, in particular to a method for monitoring and shunting regulation and control of the carrying capacity of tourists in ancient villages. Background Ancient village travel management is faced with a long-term acute contradiction between cultural relic protection and guest experience. In the prior art, extensive total people control is adopted, heterogeneity of space structures of ancient villages is ignored, and the regional bearing capacity is seriously unbalanced, namely, narrow channels are frequently overloaded and congested, and wide area resources are idle, so that management inefficiency and tourist experience are deteriorated. The passenger flow prediction model only depends on historical data, does not combine dynamic factors such as weather, festival and the like, the early warning mechanism is rigidified, the regulation and control strategy is cut at a glance, and the tourist is dissatisfied due to forced current limiting. The parameter cannot be adjusted according to the space characteristics of the ancient villages due to the lack of the self-adaptive optimization mechanism, the cultural relics protection and tourist safety early warning mechanism is weak, and burst risks are difficult to deal with in time. These shortcomings not only exacerbate the damage risk of cultural relics, but also significantly reduce the satisfaction of tourists and restrict the sustainable travel development of ancient villages, and there is a great need for an intelligent management method capable of dividing bearing units and optimizing regulation and control strategies. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a method for monitoring and shunting regulation and control of the guest carrying capacity of ancient villages. Aiming at the problem of unbalanced distribution of the load bearing capacity area of tourists in ancient villages, the invention solves the contradiction of unbalanced load bearing capacity caused by traditional rough management through multi-level micro-unit division and load bearing capacity evaluation. The method for monitoring and shunting the load of tourists in ancient villages comprises the following steps: Constructing a multi-level micro-unit division system based on the protection level of the ancient village cultural relics and the space topological structure characteristics, and determining the bearing capacity safety threshold value of each micro-unit through channel width evaluation and space permeability analysis; The method comprises the steps of deploying a stereoscopic perception network with priority of cultural relic protection, comprising deploying video monitoring and infrared counting equipment in a non-cultural relic building area, deploying non-contact millimeter wave sensors around the cultural relic building, and arranging a mobile terminal signal acquisition device in a public area; A short-time passenger flow prediction model based on a historical passenger flow rule and external influence factors is constructed, historical passenger flow data, reservation information, weather conditions and special activity factors are comprehensively analyzed, and the tourist number change trend of each micro unit in a future period is predicted; Establishing a quality of experience assessment mechanism based on the residence characteristics and the passing efficiency of tourists, quantitatively assessing the quality of experience of the tourists by monitoring the residence time distribution and the moving speed change of the tourists in each area; Constructing a regulation and control effect feedback and parameter optimization mechanism, recording passenger flow distribution change data before and after regulation and control measures are implemented, optimizing microcell partitioning parameters, early warning threshold setting and a regulation and control strategy library through historical effect comparison analysis, and gradually adapting to the space characteristics of specific paleovillages and the flow rules of tourists; And establishing a safety double-bottom line early warning mechanism for the protection of the ancient village and tourists, and starting an emergency evacuation plan when the safety red line with the vibration amplitude exceeding a safety threshold value or the microcell density exceeding the maximum bearing capacity of the ancient village body is monitored. Further, the constructing a multi-level micro-unit division system, determining a bearing capacity safety threshold of each micro-unit, and activating a boundary adjustment mechanism, including: Dividing the ancient village into a plurality of primary areas according to the cultural relic protection level, wherein each stage of cultural relic protection unit and the direct influence range thereof form independent primary areas; in each first