CN-121981470-A - Highway operation stage low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect evaluation method, device, equipment and medium

CN121981470ACN 121981470 ACN121981470 ACN 121981470ACN-121981470-A

Abstract

The application discloses a method, a device, equipment and a medium for evaluating low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect in an expressway operation stage, and relates to the field of transportation. The method comprises the steps of constructing a knowledge graph according to a low-carbon strategy original file, constructing a low-carbon strategy research literature emission reduction related parameter basic database by adopting a meta-analysis method, determining an activity level effect average value and strategy corresponding parameters in a dynamics model, determining the sum of an integrated emission reduction effect value and independent emission reduction of a low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed according to the knowledge graph and the dynamics model of the determined parameters to obtain a strategy combination synergistic effect time sequence, carrying out N times of random sampling on probability distribution, determining N times of synergistic effect time sequences corresponding to the random sampling by adopting a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, and obtaining an emission reduction effect evaluation result of the strategy combination according to the synergistic effect time sequence. The application can accurately and efficiently realize the evaluation of the low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect in the expressway operation stage.

Inventors

LIU YUANYUAN
CHEN WENZHOU
Wu Shenxuan
WANG YUANQING
CHEN ZIZHENG

Assignees

广东工业大学
长安大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260122

Claims (10)

1. The method for evaluating the low-carbon strategy combined emission reduction effect in the expressway operation stage is characterized by comprising the following steps of: acquiring a low-carbon strategy original file at the operation stage of the expressway; Constructing a knowledge graph based on the low-carbon strategy original file; The method comprises the steps of constructing a low-carbon strategy study literature emission reduction related parameter basic database at the operation stage of the expressway by adopting a meta-analysis method, wherein the basic database comprises an activity level effect average value and a corresponding standard deviation of each low-carbon strategy, and an emission factor effect average value and a corresponding standard deviation matched with the activity level of each low-carbon strategy; Establishing a dynamics model of a carbon emission system in the expressway operation stage based on a causal loop chart, determining an activity level effect average value in the dynamics model based on the basic database, and determining strategy corresponding parameters in the dynamics model based on the low-carbon strategy original file; Determining a low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed according to the knowledge graph, and carrying out scene simulation on the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed by adopting a dynamic model for determining an activity level effect average value and strategy corresponding parameters to obtain a combined net increment and a single net increment, calculating a comprehensive emission reduction effect value according to the combined net increment and a corresponding emission factor effect average value in the basic database, and calculating the sum of independent emission reduction according to the single net increment and the corresponding emission factor effect average value in the basic database; calculating a synergistic effect time sequence of the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed according to the sum of the comprehensive emission reduction effect value and the independent emission reduction amount; Determining a synergistic effect analysis result according to the synergistic effect time sequence, wherein the synergistic effect analysis result comprises synergistic effect, antagonistic effect and no interaction; Determining activity level effect value probability distribution according to the activity level effect average value and the corresponding standard deviation of each low-carbon strategy in the basic database, and determining emission factor effect value probability distribution according to the emission factor effect average value and the corresponding standard deviation matched with the activity level of each low-carbon strategy in the basic database; Performing N times of random sampling on the activity level effect value probability distribution and the emission factor effect value probability distribution, and performing scene simulation on a low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed by adopting a Markov chain Monte Carlo method according to temporary input parameters obtained by each sampling to obtain a synergistic effect time sequence corresponding to the N times of random sampling; And carrying out statistical analysis on the synergistic effect time sequences corresponding to the N random samples, and determining an emission reduction effect evaluation result of the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed according to the statistical analysis result and the synergistic effect analysis result, wherein the statistical analysis result comprises an average value, a median and a standard deviation of the synergistic effect and a confidence interval for setting a probability value.
2. The method for evaluating the low-carbon strategy combined emission reduction effect in the expressway operation stage according to claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by constructing a knowledge graph based on the low-carbon strategy original file, and specifically comprises the following steps: Extracting information from the low-carbon strategy original file by adopting a natural language processing technology to obtain a key entity category, wherein the key entity category comprises a unique identifier, a strategy name, a strategy action object, a strategy quantization intensity parameter value, a unit corresponding to the strategy quantization intensity parameter value, a strategy effective time range and a source file; the source file, the strategy name and the strategy action object are used as three different attributes, and a Neo4j graph database is utilized to construct a knowledge graph node; Based on the knowledge graph nodes, the strategy quantization intensity parameter value, a unit corresponding to the strategy quantization intensity parameter value and the strategy effective time range are used as attributes to be added to corresponding strategy action objects, and nodes containing quantitative information are obtained; According to the hierarchical structure and semantic clues of the low-carbon strategy original file, identifying transverse interaction relations among nodes containing quantitative information of different strategy names, and determining edges of a knowledge graph according to the transverse interaction relations, wherein the transverse interaction relations comprise positive relations or negative relations; And constructing a knowledge graph according to the nodes containing the quantitative information and the edges of the knowledge graph.
3. The method for evaluating the low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect in the expressway operation stage according to claim 1, wherein a meta-analysis method is adopted to construct a basic database of relevant parameters of low-carbon strategy research literature emission reduction in the expressway operation stage, and the method specifically comprises the following steps: Determining a plurality of research documents of each low-carbon strategy according to set screening criteria; Determining an activity level effect average value and a corresponding standard deviation of each low-carbon strategy by adopting a random effect element analysis method based on a plurality of research documents of each low-carbon strategy; retrieving emissions matching each low carbon strategic activity level, the emissions including review papers, lifecycle assessment reports, greenhouse gas emissions inventory guidelines, and IPCC emissions factor databases; Based on the emission literature, a random effect element analysis method is adopted to determine an emission factor effect average value matched with each low-carbon strategy activity level and a corresponding standard deviation.
4. The method for evaluating the combined emission reduction effect of the low-carbon strategies in the expressway operation period according to claim 3, wherein the method for determining the average value of the activity level effect and the corresponding standard deviation of each low-carbon strategy by adopting a random effect element analysis method based on a plurality of research documents of each low-carbon strategy specifically comprises the following steps: for the same low-carbon strategy, extracting the activity level effect value and the variance of the activity level effect value of the low-carbon strategy of each research literature; Calculating the heterogeneity variance of each low-carbon strategy by adopting a random effect element analysis method; For the same low-carbon strategy, adding the heterogeneity variance and the variance of the activity level effect value of the low-carbon strategy of each research document, and taking the reciprocal to obtain the weight of the activity level effect value of the low-carbon strategy of each research document; For the same low-carbon strategy, weighting the activity level effect values of the low-carbon strategies of all research documents by adopting the weight of the activity level effect values, and obtaining the activity level effect average value of the low-carbon strategy; And for the same low-carbon strategy, summing the weights of the activity level effect values of the low-carbon strategies of all research documents, taking the square root of the reciprocal, and obtaining the standard deviation of the activity level effect average value of the low-carbon strategy.
5. The method for evaluating the combined emission reduction effect of the low-carbon strategy in the expressway operation phase according to claim 1, wherein the method for constructing the dynamic model of the carbon emission system in the expressway operation phase based on the causal loop chart is characterized by comprising the following steps: Constructing a causal relationship graph according to key dependent variables and target variables, wherein the key dependent variables comprise related facilities or direct effects corresponding to a low-carbon strategy in an expressway operation stage; Performing polarity labeling on the causal relation graph to obtain a causal loop graph; And constructing a dynamics model of the carbon emission system in the expressway operation stage according to the causal loop chart, wherein the dynamics model comprises a direct influence function of a low-carbon strategy in the expressway operation stage, an interactive adjustment function among different low-carbon strategy acting objects in the expressway operation stage, a net driving force integration function of the stock of the low-carbon strategy propulsion in the expressway operation stage and a conversion function of physical energy and carbon emission flow of the expressway system.
6. The method for evaluating the emission reduction effect of a low-carbon strategy combination at the operation stage of an expressway according to claim 1, wherein the expression of the synergistic effect time sequence is as follows: ; Wherein, the Representing a synergistic effect time series; Representing a comprehensive emission reduction effect value; Representing the sum of the individual reductions.
7. The method for evaluating the combined emission reduction effect of the low-carbon strategy at the expressway operation stage according to claim 1, wherein the determining the synergistic effect analysis result according to the synergistic effect time sequence specifically comprises: If the synergistic effect time sequence is greater than 0, determining that synergy exists among strategies in the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed; if the synergistic effect time sequence is smaller than 0, determining that antagonism effect exists between strategies in the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed; if the synergistic effect time series is equal to 0, determining that no interaction exists between strategies in the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed.
8. The utility model provides a low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect evaluation device of highway operation stage, its characterized in that, low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect evaluation device of highway operation stage includes: The file acquisition module is used for acquiring the low-carbon strategy original file at the operation stage of the expressway; The knowledge graph construction module is used for constructing a knowledge graph based on the low-carbon strategy original file; The system comprises a database construction module, a database analysis module and a database analysis module, wherein the database construction module is used for constructing a low-carbon strategy study literature emission reduction related parameter basic database in the expressway operation stage by adopting a meta-analysis method, and the basic database comprises an activity level effect average value and a corresponding standard deviation of each low-carbon strategy, and an emission factor effect average value and a corresponding standard deviation matched with the activity level of each low-carbon strategy; the system comprises a model activity level value determining module, a model activity level value determining module and a model activity level value determining module, wherein the model activity level value determining module is used for constructing a dynamics model of a carbon emission system in an expressway operation stage based on a causal loop chart, determining an activity level effect average value in the dynamics model based on the basic database, and determining strategy corresponding parameters in the dynamics model based on the low-carbon strategy original file; The emission reduction calculation module is used for determining a low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed according to the knowledge graph, carrying out scene simulation on the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed by adopting a dynamic model for determining an activity level effect average value and strategy corresponding parameters to obtain a combined net increment and a single net increment, calculating a comprehensive emission reduction effect value according to the combined net increment and a corresponding emission factor effect average value in the basic database, and calculating the sum of independent emission reduction according to the single net increment and the corresponding emission factor effect average value in the basic database; The synergistic effect time sequence calculation module is used for calculating a synergistic effect time sequence of the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed according to the sum of the comprehensive emission reduction effect value and the independent emission reduction amount; the synergistic effect analysis result determining module is used for determining a synergistic effect analysis result according to the synergistic effect time sequence, wherein the synergistic effect analysis result comprises synergistic effect, antagonistic effect and no interaction; The probability distribution determining module is used for determining the probability distribution of the activity level effect value according to the activity level effect average value and the corresponding standard deviation of each low-carbon strategy in the basic database, and determining the probability distribution of the emission factor effect value according to the emission factor effect average value and the corresponding standard deviation matched with the activity level of each low-carbon strategy in the basic database; The Monte Carlo cyclic simulation module is used for carrying out N times of random sampling on the activity level effect value probability distribution and the emission factor effect value probability distribution, and carrying out scene simulation on a low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed by adopting a Markov chain Monte Carlo method according to a temporary input parameter obtained by each sampling to obtain a synergistic effect time sequence corresponding to the N times of random sampling; The emission reduction effect evaluation module is used for carrying out statistical analysis on the synergistic effect time sequences corresponding to the N random samples, and determining an emission reduction effect evaluation result of the low-carbon strategy combination to be analyzed according to the statistical analysis result and the synergistic effect analysis result, wherein the statistical analysis result comprises an average value, a median, a standard deviation of the synergistic effect and a confidence interval for setting a probability value.
9. Computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, characterized in that the processor executes the computer program to implement the method for evaluating the combined emission reduction effect of low-carbon strategies at the operation stage of a highway according to any one of claims 1-7.
10. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, which when executed by a processor implements the method for evaluating the combined emission abatement effect of a low-carbon strategy of any one of claims 1-7 in a highway operation phase.

Description

Highway operation stage low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect evaluation method, device, equipment and medium Technical Field The application relates to the field of transportation, in particular to a method, a device, equipment and a medium for evaluating low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect in the operation stage of a highway. Background The expressway is taken as an important component of a transportation system, normal operation and maintenance of an infrastructure are basic guarantee of normal operation of transportation in an operation stage, and a large amount of energy consumption and carbon emission are consumed. Therefore, the advanced technologies such as photovoltaic power generation and energy storage, charging and hydrogenation, intelligent lighting, energy consumption optimization and intelligent management and control are gradually applied to expressway infrastructures such as service areas, toll stations and tunnels, and correspondingly, expressway low-carbon strategies and action schemes are also formulated successively, the popularization and application of advanced technologies such as new energy sources, new materials and new processes are increased, and the aim of reducing carbon emission is achieved. Since the strategy is very important for carbon emission, the scientific evaluation of the emission reduction effect of different technical strategies is to improve the implementation effectiveness of the strategy, define the emission reduction path of the expressway operation stage, improve the emission reduction economy and time efficiency, and avoid the cost waste and missing the key of emission reduction time. The following problems exist with current emissions reduction technical policy assessment for highway infrastructure operation periods: Firstly, the systematic association relation method supporting the low-carbon technical strategy combination is insufficient in identification. In the operation stage of the expressway infrastructure, the low-carbon technical strategies are various, the emission reduction effects among the strategies can be mutually beneficial and can be mutually restricted, the one-sided and unreasonable strategy combination is easy to cause resource waste and weaken the emission reduction effect, and a comprehensive and systematic strategy association relation identification method is needed urgently to solve the problems of blindness and inefficiency of the strategy combination method according to the strategy combination caused by lack. And secondly, the strategy combination synergistic effect quantification method supporting advanced technical decisions is lacking. In the expressway operation stage, the emission reduction technical strategies are mostly implemented in a combined mode, and due to the complexity of association relations and the systematicness of a whole body of traction and development, a method for representing association relations among different strategies and enabling combined emission reduction synergistic effects is needed, so that the problems that the actual emission reduction effects of strategy combination are inaccurate in quantification and the basis for combining and selecting different strategies is lacking are solved. In summary, how to accurately and efficiently realize the evaluation of the low-carbon strategy combined emission reduction effect in the expressway operation stage becomes a current urgent problem to be solved. Disclosure of Invention The application aims to provide a method, a device, equipment and a medium for evaluating the low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect in the expressway operation stage, which can accurately and efficiently evaluate the low-carbon strategy combination emission reduction effect in the expressway operation stage. In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides the following solutions: in a first aspect, the application provides a method for evaluating the low-carbon strategy combined emission reduction effect in the operation stage of a highway, which comprises the following steps: acquiring a low-carbon strategy original file at the operation stage of the expressway; Constructing a knowledge graph based on the low-carbon strategy original file; The method comprises the steps of constructing a low-carbon strategy study literature emission reduction related parameter basic database at the operation stage of the expressway by adopting a meta-analysis method, wherein the basic database comprises an activity level effect average value and a corresponding standard deviation of each low-carbon strategy, and an emission factor effect average value and a corresponding standard deviation matched with the activity level of each low-carbon strategy; Establishing a dynamics model of a carbon emission system in the expressway operation stage based on a causal loop chart, determining an activity level effect average v