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CN-121981565-A - Method for determining and optimizing oil and gas resource investment project yield and project scheme

CN121981565ACN 121981565 ACN121981565 ACN 121981565ACN-121981565-A

Abstract

The application relates to a method for determining and optimizing the profitability of an oil and gas resource investment project and a project scheme, wherein the method for determining the profitability of the investment project comprises the steps of obtaining relevant data of the target project, calculating and constructing a corresponding relation diagram between each discount rate and a corresponding net cash flow present value based on annual net cash flow data of the target project in a contract period, calculating a risk net cash flow present value of the target project under a corresponding exploratory well success rate through the predicted lowest exploration investment amount of the target project in the contract period, inquiring the corresponding relation diagram through the risk net cash flow present value under the corresponding exploratory well success rate to obtain a corresponding risk profitability, and fully considering unified indexes of the oil and gas resource project and combining investment earnings with geological risks, wherein the method is easy to practice and the conclusion accords with actual conditions of the oil and gas resource exploration project more than the internal earning rate, and can effectively provide scientific basis for project investment decision.

Inventors

  • DAI DONGLING

Assignees

  • 中国石油化工股份有限公司
  • 中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院

Dates

Publication Date
20260505
Application Date
20241030

Claims (11)

  1. 1. A method for determining the profitability of an oil and gas resource investment project, the method comprising: Acquiring relevant data of a target item, wherein the relevant data comprises annual net cash flow data of the target item in a contract period and predicted minimum exploration investment; Based on the annual net cash flow data of the target item in the contract period, calculating the net cash flow value of the target item under the corresponding discount rate, and constructing a corresponding relation diagram between each discount rate and the corresponding net cash flow value; Calculating a risk net cash flow value of the target item under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well by predicting the lowest exploration investment of the target item in the contract period based on a preset risk benefit model; And inquiring the corresponding relation graph through the net cash flow value of the risk under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well to obtain the corresponding discount rate, wherein the corresponding discount rate is characterized by the risk yield under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well.
  2. 2. The method of claim 1, wherein acquiring annual net cash flow data for the target item over the contract period comprises: Obtaining predicted annual output and predicted sales parameters of a target item in a contract period; Based on a preset economic evaluation model, calculating annual net cash flow data of the target item in the contract period by combining the predicted annual output and predicted sales parameters of the target item in the contract period, wherein the preset economic evaluation model is constructed based on a cash flow method and financial tax system and contract terms of the place of the target item.
  3. 3. The method of claim 2, wherein the predicted sales parameters include predicted sales price, predicted annual yield, predicted commodity rate; the preset economic evaluation model comprises the following steps: The method comprises the steps of NCF (numerical control) net cash flow, CI (Cash inflow), CO (Cash outflow), P (predicted sales price), Q (predicted annual output), theta (predicted commodity rate), n (project contract period), t (t) year, C (productivity construction investment and operation cost), govTake (government) and covering various tax and profit division of government.
  4. 4. The method of claim 1, wherein the pre-set risk benefit model comprises: Wherein F S is the average exploratory well success rate of the block where the target project is located, CI is cash inflow, CO is cash outflow, n is project contract period, t is the t year, BC is the predicted minimum exploration investment of the target project, and RIR is project risk yield (RISKINTEREST RATE).
  5. 5. A preferred method of investing in an item, characterized in that the number of target items is set to at least two, the method comprising: Determining the risk and profitability of each target project at the success rate of a corresponding exploratory well based on the method for determining the profitability of the oil and gas resource investment project of any one of claims 1-4; Determining a target exploratory well success rate corresponding to each target item according to the prediction and geological risk of each target item, and determining a risk and return rate corresponding to each target item according to the target exploratory well success rate; sequencing at least two target items according to the size sequence of the risk and yield; based on the ranking result, a preferred target item is determined.
  6. 6. A preferred method of technical solutions for investment projects, wherein said target project comprises at least two technical solutions, characterized in that said method comprises: Constructing a corresponding relation diagram between each discount rate and a corresponding net cash flow value based on the method for determining the oil and gas resource investment project profitability according to any one of claims 1-4, and determining the risk and profitability of each technical scheme under the corresponding exploratory well success rate; Ordering the corresponding technical schemes based on the order of magnitude of risk and return rates under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory wells; Based on the ranking results, a preferred technical solution is determined.
  7. 7. A device for determining the profitability of an oil and gas resource investment project, comprising: The acquisition module is used for acquiring relevant data of the target item, wherein the relevant data comprises annual net cash flow data of the target item in a contract period and predicted minimum exploration investment; The map building module is used for calculating the net cash flow value of the target item under the corresponding discount rate based on the annual net cash flow data of the target item in the contract period, and building a corresponding relation map between each discount rate and the corresponding net cash flow value; The risk net cash flow value module is used for calculating the risk net cash flow value of the target item under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well through the predicted lowest exploration investment of the target item in the contract period based on a preset risk benefit model, wherein the preset risk benefit model is used for representing; And the risk and return rate determining module is used for inquiring the corresponding relation graph through the net cash flow value of the risk under the corresponding exploratory well success rate to obtain the corresponding discount rate, wherein the corresponding discount rate is characterized by the risk and return rate under the corresponding exploratory well success rate.
  8. 8. A preferred apparatus for investment projects, characterized in that the number of target projects is set to at least two, the apparatus comprising: a first application module for determining the risk and profitability of each target project under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well based on the method for determining the profitability of the oil and gas resource investment project according to any one of claims 1 to 4; the second module is used for determining the target exploratory well success rate corresponding to each target item according to the prediction and geological risk of each target item and determining the risk and income rate corresponding to each target item according to the target exploratory well success rate; The first ordering module is used for ordering at least two target items according to the size sequence of the risk and return rate; And the first determining module is used for determining a preferred target item based on the sorting result.
  9. 9. A preferred arrangement of technical solutions for investment projects, characterized in that the target project comprises at least two technical solutions, the arrangement comprising: the second application module is used for constructing a corresponding relation diagram between each discount rate and a corresponding net cash flow value based on the method for determining the oil and gas resource investment project yield according to any one of claims 1-4, and determining the risk yield of each technical scheme under the success rate of a corresponding exploratory well; The second sequencing module is used for sequencing the corresponding technical schemes based on the order of the risk and return rates under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory wells; and the second determining module is used for determining a preferred technical scheme based on the sequencing result.
  10. 10. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor for the steps of the method of any of claims 1-4 and/or the steps of the method of claim 5 and/or the steps of the method of claim 6.
  11. 11. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program, when being executed by a processor, performs the steps of the method of any of the preceding claims 1-4, and/or the steps of the method of claim 5, and/or the steps of the method of claim 6.

Description

Method for determining and optimizing oil and gas resource investment project yield and project scheme Technical Field The invention relates to the field of computer software, in particular to a method for determining and optimizing the oil and gas resource investment project yield and project scheme. Background In the economic evaluation of oil and gas resource investment projects, the most commonly used indexes are a net present Value (NET PRESENT Value, NPV) and an internal yield IRR (INTERNAL RATE of Return, IRR). The internal yield IRR refers to the discount rate of the item when the net cash flow present value accumulation of each year is equal to zero in the calculation period, that is, the discount rate of making the net cash flow present value of the item zero. The economic implication of the internal profitability IRR is the profitability of the project during the calculation period, which reflects the profitability of the project. Compared with other indexes such as net present value, the internal yield IRR has the remarkable characteristics that the solution can be carried out without knowing the reference discount rate in advance, and the value of the internal yield IRR is not influenced by external parameters and is completely dependent on the cash flow of the project. The method has the advantages that the intrinsic value of the investment project is embodied, and the investment project is not influenced by external factors such as the return rate of the capital market. Meanwhile, the method has the advantages of simple index results, easiness in comparison and wider application and acceptance in actual economic evaluation, and becomes a first-choice index for oil and gas investment project screening and investment decision making by a decision-making layer. However, the assumption of internal yield measurement in practical application is that the oil and gas resource investment project is successful in well drilling, and the project can enter a development stage, so that the probability of successful oil and gas resource project exploration is not considered in the calculation process. Disclosure of Invention Based on the above, it is necessary to provide a method for determining and optimizing the profitability of oil and gas resource investment project and project scheme, and corresponding equipment, which effectively corrects the above problems and contradictions, is easy to practice and calculates the conclusion to more accord with the actual effect of project operation than the prior internal profitability IRR, reflects the economical efficiency of the project more truly, and can effectively provide scientific basis for project investment decision. The first aspect of the invention provides a method for determining the yield of oil and gas resource investment projects, which comprises the following steps: Acquiring relevant data of a target item, wherein the relevant data comprises annual net cash flow data of the target item in a contract period and predicted minimum exploration investment; Based on the annual net cash flow data of the target item in the contract period, calculating the net cash flow value of the target item under the corresponding discount rate, and constructing a corresponding relation diagram between each discount rate and the corresponding net cash flow value; Calculating a risk net cash flow value of the target item under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well by predicting the lowest exploration investment of the target item in the contract period based on a preset risk benefit model; And inquiring the corresponding relation graph through the net cash flow value of the risk under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well to obtain the corresponding discount rate, wherein the corresponding discount rate is characterized by the risk yield under the success rate of the corresponding exploratory well. Optionally, acquiring annual net cash flow data of the target item during the contract period includes: Obtaining predicted annual output and predicted sales parameters of a target item in a contract period; Based on a preset economic evaluation model, calculating annual net cash flow data of the target item in the contract period by combining the predicted annual output and predicted sales parameters of the target item in the contract period, wherein the preset economic evaluation model is constructed based on a cash flow method and financial tax system and contract terms of the place of the target item. Optionally, the predicted sales parameters include predicted sales price, predicted annual output, and predicted commodity rate, and the preset economic evaluation model includes: The method comprises the steps of NCF (numerical control) net cash flow, CI (Cash inflow), CO (Cash outflow), P (predicted sales price), Q (predicted annual output), theta (predicted commodity rate), n (project contract period), t (t) year, C (productivity constru