CN-121981616-A - Quantitative evaluation method for site selection of aquifer gas storage

CN121981616ACN 121981616 ACN121981616 ACN 121981616ACN-121981616-A

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of natural gas underground gas storage engineering, in particular to a quantitative evaluation method for site selection of a water-bearing layer gas storage, which comprises the following steps of screening candidate structures in a target area, establishing a target layer-criterion layer-index layer three-layer evaluation index system, and collecting multi-source data; the expert is invited to adopt a Satty scale method to carry out pairwise comparison, a judgment matrix is constructed, a sum-product method or a characteristic root method is adopted to calculate the weight of each index, the maximum characteristic value of the judgment matrix is calculated, the weight effectiveness is checked through a consistency ratio CR, a classical domain matrix and a festival domain matrix are constructed, the actually measured value of the index is formed into an element matrix to be evaluated, the distance and the association degree between the actual value and each grade interval are calculated, the comprehensive association degree is calculated by combining the weight weighting, the quantitative sorting is carried out, the echelon is divided according to the sorting result, and the decision suggestion is output. The method realizes complete closed loop from weighting, multi-index evaluation to sequencing decision, and effectively solves the problems of strong subjectivity, difficult multi-source data fusion and the like of the traditional site selection method.

Inventors

CAI CHENGZHENG
ZHOU HONGFEI
YE ZHIWEI
ZHOU CHUNBO
Zou Zengxin
LI JIACHENG
GAO YUPENG
ZHANG XUJIE

Assignees

中国矿业大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260407

Claims (10)

1. The quantitative evaluation method for the site selection of the aquifer gas storage is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Step 1, preliminarily screening N candidate structures in a target area to serve as objects to be evaluated, and establishing a target layer-criterion layer-index layer three-layer structure evaluation index system, wherein the target layer is an aqueous layer gas storage optimization site selection, the criterion layer comprises five dimensions of a trap structure, a cover layer sealing structure, regional geology, economic performance and social environment, the index layer is M quantifiable evaluation indexes refined from each criterion layer, and geological and engineering data and economic and social data of each candidate structure under the M indexes are collected; step 2, inviting a plurality of experts to align the evaluation indexes in the index layer and the index layer by adopting a 1-9 scale method to compare the importance of each index, constructing a corresponding judgment matrix aiming at the indexes under each criterion, and calculating the weight of each index by adopting a sum product method or a characteristic root method; step 3, calculating the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, checking the validity of the judgment matrix through a consistency ratio CR, and when CR is less than 0.1, accepting the consistency of the judgment matrix, wherein the obtained weight is valid; Step 4, dividing each index into at least four grades according to industry specifications, historical library data and expert experience, setting a numerical interval of each grade as a classical domain, setting a theoretical maximum possible value range of each index as a festival domain, and constructing a classical domain matrix and a festival domain matrix; Step 5, forming an element matrix to be evaluated by the M index actual measurement values of the N candidate structures acquired in the step 1, and calculating the distance and the association degree between the actual value and each level interval through an element extension theory; and 6, combining the weights determined in the step 2, weighting and calculating the comprehensive association degree of each candidate structure, carrying out quantization sequencing according to the comprehensive association degree, dividing the candidate structures into different echelons according to the sequencing result, and outputting corresponding decision suggestions.
2. The quantitative evaluation method for the site selection of the aquifer gas storage according to claim 1, wherein the number N of the candidate structures in the step 1 is more than or equal to 3, and the number M of the quantifiable evaluation indexes is more than or equal to 15.
3. The quantitative evaluation method for aquifer gas storage site selection according to claim 1, wherein the number of inviting specialists in the step 2 is more than 10.
4. The quantitative evaluation method for the site selection of the aquifer gas storage according to claim 1, wherein the weight vector W is calculated by adopting a sum product method in the step 2, and is specifically realized by the following formula: Normalization processing is performed on each column of the judgment matrix A= [ a ij ] n×n : ; Wherein, the The element representing the ith row and jth column in the judgment matrix A represents the importance scale of the ith index relative to the jth index, and adopts a 1-9 scale method; is a normalized matrix element; Adding the normalized matrix according to rows: ; Wherein, the Is the sum of the elements of the ith row, i.e. the initial weight of the ith index; normalizing the vector to obtain the relative importance weight of each factor: ; Wherein, the For the final weight of the ith index, the weight vector W is defined by the weights The composition of the composite material comprises the components, 。
5. The quantitative evaluation method for aquifer gas storage site selection according to claim 1, wherein the consistency check in the step 3 is realized by the following formula: Calculating the maximum characteristic value : ; Wherein, the For the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, A is the judgment matrix, W is the weight vector, An ith component that is the product of the judgment matrix and the weight vector; calculating a consistency index and a consistency ratio: , ; Wherein CI is a consistency index, RI is a random consistency index, and CR is a consistency ratio.
6. The quantitative evaluation method for the site selection of the aquifer gas storage according to claim 1, wherein the classical domain and the festival domain in the step 4 are respectively represented by the following matrix forms: classical domain matrix: ; Node area matrix: 。
7. The quantitative evaluation method for aquifer gas storage site selection according to claim 1, wherein the calculation of the distance and the association degree in the step 5 is realized by the following formula: The distance calculation formula: ; ; Wherein, the As the actual measured value of the i-th index, Classical domain interval of the ith index under the jth level; The section area section which is the i-th index, And The distances between the measured value and the classical domain interval and the pitch domain interval are respectively used for measuring the proximity degree; Index association degree calculation formula: ; Wherein, R j (v i ) is the association of the ith index with the jth level.
8. The quantitative evaluation method for aquifer gas storage site selection according to claim 1, wherein the comprehensive association degree in the step 6 is calculated by the following formula: ; Wherein K j (P) is the comprehensive relevance of the candidate structure to the jth level.
9. The quantitative evaluation method for aquifer gas storage site selection according to claim 1, wherein the dividing the candidate structures into different echelons and outputting decision advice in step 6 specifically comprises: Dividing the candidate structures into a priority construction echelon, an optimized lifting echelon and a risk avoidance echelon; The method comprises the steps of preferentially constructing a echelon into candidate structures with superior geological conditions and key index association degrees being larger than 0.8, suggesting to directly advance exploration, optimizing and lifting the echelon into candidate structures with good overall performance and individual short plates, suggesting to conduct economical simulation and engineering optimization in a targeted manner, and suggesting to avoid or adjust a selected area when a risk avoidance echelon is a candidate structure with geological safety or social environment risk.
10. The quantitative evaluation method for the site selection of the aquifer gas storage according to claim 1, wherein the index layer can be customized and adjusted according to the geological and socioeconomic characteristics of different areas, so that the popularization and the application of the method in different areas are realized.

Description

Quantitative evaluation method for site selection of aquifer gas storage Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of natural gas underground gas storage engineering, in particular to a quantitative evaluation method for water-bearing layer gas storage site selection based on analytic hierarchy process and physical element extension. Background Along with the transformation of the energy structure to clean low-carbonization, the natural gas has increasingly prominent effect in guaranteeing energy safety and optimizing an energy system. In order to cope with seasonal fluctuations in natural gas consumption, supply regulation and emergency guarantee capabilities are enhanced, and construction of large-scale underground gas reservoirs has become a strategic focus on energy infrastructure. The aquifer gas storage has good development prospect in regional energy storage system construction due to the advantages of wide distribution, large gas storage potential, relatively short construction period and the like. However, the location of aquifer reservoirs is a complex system engineering whose decision process is coupled by multi-dimensional, multi-factor, such as geologic formations, reservoir physical properties, cap closure, fault mobility, environmental impact, socioeconomic, etc. At present, the site selection method of the gas storage mainly faces the following technical challenges that (1) the evaluation standard is fuzzy, the subjectivity is strong, the traditional method excessively depends on expert experience, and a unified quantitative evaluation system is lacking, so that the objectivity, reproducibility and comparability of an evaluation result are insufficient. (2) The multi-source heterogeneous data fusion is difficult, namely, the data such as geology, engineering, environment, economy and the like have huge differences in format, dimension and scale, and effective integration and comprehensive analysis are difficult to carry out under a unified framework. (3) The decision process lacks systematicness and traceability, and the existing flow is mostly carried out step by step and segmented, and a complete closed loop from data input to decision output is not formed, so that the follow-up verification, optimization and adjustment are not facilitated. (4) The intelligent support is insufficient, the existing method is mostly remained in a theoretical or local application level, is difficult to be deeply fused with an informatization platform, and cannot meet the actual requirement of rapid selection of large-scale sites. Therefore, how to provide a method for evaluating the site selection of the aquifer gas storage, which can overcome the defects and realize science, quantification, systemization and traceability, is a technical problem to be solved urgently by the technicians in the field. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a quantitative evaluation method for site selection of an aquifer gas storage, which aims to solve the problems in the background technology. The invention provides a quantitative evaluation method for the site selection of an aquifer gas storage, which is characterized in that a complex problem of site selection is decomposed into various component factors by using a hierarchical analysis method, the factors are grouped according to a dominant relationship to form an ordered hierarchical structure, the relative importance of the factors in the hierarchy is determined by a pairwise comparison mode, then the relative importance of the factors is determined by comprehensive judgment, an object model is constructed by using an object extension theory, and the association degree between an object to be evaluated and each standard grade is calculated, so that comprehensive evaluation is performed, and the limitations of strong subjectivity and difficult comprehensive comparison of indexes in the traditional site selection method are effectively overcome. The method comprises the following steps of step 1 and a preparation working stage. As shown in fig. 1 and fig. 3, this stage is the starting point of the evaluation work, N candidate structures are primarily screened out in the target area to serve as objects to be evaluated, a three-layer structure evaluation index system of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer is established, wherein the target layer is an aqueous layer gas storage optimization site selection, the criterion layer comprises five dimensions of a trap structure, a cover layer sealing, regional geology, economic performance and social environment, the index layer is M quantifiable evaluation indexes refined from each criterion layer, and geological and engineering data and economic and social data of each candidate structure under the M indexes are collected. And 2, weight calculation and consistency check stage based on analytic hierarchy process. As shown in fig. 2 and 3, the weight calculation is performed by usi