CN-121981769-A - Port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method

CN121981769ACN 121981769 ACN121981769 ACN 121981769ACN-121981769-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method, which relates to the technical field of energy supply and scheduling and comprises the following steps of structured demand prediction and capacity constraint correction, land supply capacity analysis and prediction, total receiving and discharging demand gap calculation, peak period consumption demand quantification, peak period land supply peak regulation prediction and final receiving and discharging peak demand determination; according to the invention, regional natural gas consumption requirements are subjected to multistage structural decomposition according to industries and end users, and land pipeline gas supply capacity and peak regulation characteristics are synchronously coupled, so that the refinement and mechanization prediction of port LNG receiving and unloading requirements are realized, the receiving and unloading total requirements meeting the annual consumption total amount can be accurately calculated, the receiving and unloading peak requirements necessary for seasonal and periodical gas use peaks can be independently quantized and guaranteed by introducing a high month Gao Ri coefficient and a pipeline peak coefficient, and a scientific and comprehensive decision basis is provided for planning design and capacity configuration of an LNG receiving station.

Inventors

WU HONGYU
YUAN ZIWEN
BI SHANSHAN
GAO TIANHANG
Yu Xunran
GE BIAO
LI YIJUN

Assignees

交通运输部规划研究院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260505
Application Date: 20260123

Claims (10)

1. The port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Step one, building a consumption demand model of urban fuel gas, industrial fuel, fuel gas power generation and chemical raw materials, obtaining an initial predicted value Q of regional natural gas consumption demand, and correcting the initial predicted value Q into a total consumption demand predicted value by combining upper limit constraint of regional natural gas supply capacity ; Step two, predicting the natural gas supply scale S of the land pipeline network according to the capacity and the scheduling rule of natural gas pipeline transportation based on the supply current situation and the future planning of the self-produced gas source, the transregional pipeline gas input and the imported pipeline gas in the region; Step three, calculating the total LNG receiving and unloading requirement Q P of the port, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: Wherein E is the regional natural gas outlet quantity, considered as a known constant; Fourth, based on the predicted value of the total consumption demand Calculating the natural gas consumption demand of the area in the peak period by taking week as a time unit in combination with the high month Gao Ri coefficient sigma ; On the basis of annual average supply scale, predicting the increased natural gas supply scale S Z of the land pipeline network in the same peak period by considering the peak regulation capacity of the pipeline system and the supply fluctuation characteristics of different gas sources; step six, calculating the port LNG receiving and discharging peak demand required for guaranteeing the peak gas safety The calculation formula is as follows: 。
2. The method for structured forecast of port LNG unloading demand of claim 1, wherein in the first step, a forecast value of total consumption demand of regional natural gas is obtained The specific steps of (a) are as follows: a1, respectively predicting urban fuel gas natural gas consumption Q A , industrial fuel gas consumption Q B , fuel gas power generation natural gas consumption Q C and chemical raw material natural gas consumption Q D , and summing to obtain an initial predicted value Q of regional natural gas consumption requirements; a2, comparing the initial predicted value Q with the regional natural gas maximum supply capacity S max determined according to the infrastructure capacity, and carrying out capacity constraint correction on the consumption prediction to obtain a final consumption total demand predicted value 。
3. The method for structured prediction of port LNG unloading demand as defined in claim 2, wherein in step A1, the urban gas consumption is divided into four sub-items of residential natural gas consumption Q a , public user natural gas consumption Q b , heating user natural gas consumption Q c and transportation user natural gas consumption Q d , and the urban gas natural gas consumption Q A is obtained by summing.
4. A structured forecast method for port LNG unloading requirements as described in claim 3, wherein said residential natural gas consumption is the same as said residential natural gas consumption The predictive formula of (2) is: Wherein, Q a1 ＝NKw 1 is used for calculating the domestic gas consumption of residents, N is the population of residents, K is the gasification rate, and w 1 is the gas consumption of people in the residents; q a2 ＝Hw 2 is used for calculating the heating air consumption of the wall-mounted furnace, H is the number of users of the wall-mounted furnace, and w 2 is the air consumption of the wall-mounted furnace for annual users.
5. The method for structured prediction of port lng receiving and discharging requirements according to claim 3, wherein the method for predicting the natural gas consumption Q b of the public user employs a scaling factor method associated with the residential consumption, and the formula is: Wherein lambda is the proportion coefficient of the gas used by the public users and determined by regression analysis of historical data.
6. The method for structured prediction of port lng receiving and discharging requirements as set forth in claim 3, wherein the prediction of the heating user's natural gas consumption Q c is performed by using an area proportionality coefficient method associated with residential consumption, and the formula is: and θ is a heating consumption proportionality coefficient determined according to the regional climate and the heating habit.
7. The method for structured prediction of port lng receiving and discharging requirements according to claim 3, wherein the prediction formula of the natural gas consumption Q d of the transportation user is: Where i is the number of different vehicles, V i is the number of class i vehicles, and q i is the annual average gas consumption of class i vehicles.
8. The method for structured prediction of port lng receiving and discharging requirements according to claim 2, wherein in the step A1, the formula of the industrial fuel natural gas consumption Q B is: Wherein, Q B1 is the natural gas consumption of the existing enterprises obtained by statistics, Q B2 is the new demand of the coal-to-gas calculated by the energy substitution conversion model, and Q B3 is the new enterprise demand based on industrial growth prediction.
9. The method for structured prediction of port LNG unloading demand according to claim 1, wherein in said fourth step, said natural gas consumption demand is in said peak period region The calculation formula of (2) is as follows: wherein, the high moon Gao Ri coefficient sigma is determined by a region integration method.
10. The method for structured prediction of port lng receiving and discharging requirements according to claim 1, wherein in the fifth step, the prediction formula of the lng supply scale S Z is as follows: Wherein S p is the annual supply scale of self-produced gas in the region, S i1 is the annual supply scale of pipeline gas in other regions in China, S i2 is the annual supply scale of imported pipeline gas, and theta 1 and theta 2 are the supply capacity lifting coefficients of corresponding pipeline gas sources in the peak period respectively.

Description

Port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of energy supply and scheduling, in particular to a port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method. Background In recent years, the energy clean demand promotes the continuous and rapid increase of natural gas consumption in China, and the construction and early work of LNG receiving stations are actively promoted in a plurality of coastal areas of China so as to meet the increasing LNG import and natural gas storage demands in China. The port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand prediction is an important precondition for the system layout of the LNG receiving and discharging station and the investment decision of a single receiving station in China. Port Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) offloading demand prediction is an important prerequisite for LNG receiving station layout planning and investment decisions. At present, the prediction method in the field mainly depends on the traditional time series analysis, a causal relationship model, a gray system theory and other modern prediction models. These methods are typically based on a global extrapolation or correlation analysis of time trends or macroscopic economic variables of historical consumption data, aimed at providing a global numerical estimate of regional natural gas consumption total or LNG import. Based on the findings in the prior art, the existing port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand prediction technology is difficult to effectively reveal and quantify natural gas consumption, particularly the strong seasonal, monthly and even daily fluctuation characteristics shown in the area with unbalanced gas consumption, the flat-peak receiving and discharging amount meeting the annual total demand and the peak receiving and discharging amount guaranteeing the extreme consumption period cannot be distinguished, the consumption demand is usually considered in isolation by the existing prediction technology, the supply side constraint conditions such as the natural gas supply capacity of the land pipeline in the area, the peak regulation characteristic of the pipe network and the like cannot be systematically coupled, the prediction result is disjointed from the decision demand of the bidirectional balance of supply and demand in the actual engineering, and the applicability and the accuracy are limited. Therefore, the invention provides a port liquefied natural gas connection and disconnection demand structured prediction method to solve the problems in the prior art. Disclosure of Invention In view of the above problems, the present invention aims to provide a port lng receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method, which solves the problems that the existing port lng receiving and discharging demand prediction technology is difficult to effectively reveal and quantify natural gas consumption, and consumption demands are usually taken into isolation into consideration, and supply side constraint conditions such as regional land pipeline natural gas supply capacity, pipe network peak regulation characteristics and the like cannot be systematically coupled. In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method is realized by the following technical scheme that the port liquefied natural gas receiving and discharging demand structured prediction method comprises the following steps: Step one, building a consumption demand model of urban fuel gas, industrial fuel, fuel gas power generation and chemical raw materials, obtaining an initial predicted value Q of regional natural gas consumption demand, and correcting the initial predicted value Q into a total consumption demand predicted value by combining upper limit constraint of regional natural gas supply capacity ; Step two, predicting the natural gas supply scale S of the land pipeline network according to the capacity and the scheduling rule of natural gas pipeline transportation based on the supply current situation and the future planning of the self-produced gas source, the transregional pipeline gas input and the imported pipeline gas in the region; Step three, calculating the total LNG receiving and unloading requirement Q P of the port, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: Wherein E is the regional natural gas outlet quantity, considered as a known constant; Fourth, based on the predicted value of the total consumption demand Calculating the natural gas consumption demand of the area in the peak period by taking week as a time unit in combination with the high month Gao Ri coefficient sigma; On the basis of annual average supply scale, predicting the increased natural gas supply scale S Z of the land pipeline network in the same peak period by considering the pe