CN-121995545-A - Ionosphere storm early warning evaluation method based on FY3E ionosphere photometer

CN121995545ACN 121995545 ACN121995545 ACN 121995545ACN-121995545-A

Abstract

The invention discloses an ionosphere storm early warning evaluation method based on an FY3E ionometer, which comprises the steps of obtaining satellite global oxygen-nitrogen ratio observation data, calculating the variation of the satellite global oxygen-nitrogen ratio observation data relative to a calm period reference value based on the oxygen-nitrogen ratio observation data, inputting the variation into a pre-established quantitative evaluation model to obtain a predicted value of the variation of total electronic content TEC of an ionosphere in a window of 1-3 hours in the future, evaluating the intensity level of the ionosphere storm according to the predicted value and issuing early warning information, wherein the quantitative evaluation model is obtained by analyzing oxygen-nitrogen ratio historical data and ionosphere TEC historical data and establishing a quantitative association relation between oxygen-nitrogen ratio variation and ionosphere TEC variation, and comprises a time delay regression model and a space-time comprehensive gradient correction mechanism. The method effectively avoids subjective judgment deviation, remarkably improves the accuracy and timeliness of ionosphere riot strength evaluation, and reduces the interference of the ionosphere riot on signal transmission and positioning accuracy.

Inventors

SONG QIAN
WANG CONG
MAO TIAN

Assignees

国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心)

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20260127

Claims (7)

1. An ionosphere storm early warning evaluation method based on the oxygen-nitrogen ratio of a satellite-borne ionosphere photometer is characterized by comprising the following steps: acquiring satellite global oxygen-nitrogen ratio observation data; Calculating the variation of the oxygen-nitrogen ratio relative to a calm period reference value based on the oxygen-nitrogen ratio observation data; Inputting the variation into a pre-established quantitative evaluation model to obtain a predicted value of the variation of the total electronic content TEC of the ionized layer in a future 1-3 hour window; And according to the predicted value, evaluating the intensity level of the ionosphere storm and issuing early warning information, wherein the quantitative evaluation model is obtained by analyzing oxygen-nitrogen ratio historical data and ionosphere TEC historical data and establishing a quantitative association relation between oxygen-nitrogen ratio change and ionosphere TEC change, and comprises a time delay regression model and a space-time comprehensive gradient correction mechanism.
2. The method for ionosphere storm warning and assessment based on FY3E ionosphere photometer of claim 1, wherein the satellite global oxygen-nitrogen ratio observation data is global oxygen-nitrogen ratio observation data measured by a multi-angle ionosphere photometer carried by wind cloud No. three E star FY-3E.
3. The method for ionospheric pre-warning and evaluating based on FY3E ionosphere photometer of claim 1, wherein the model expression corrected by the time delay regression model is: ; Wherein, the Is the moment and the latitude Longitude is , In order to track the number of points along the track, The variation of O/N2 of the same track point (lambda, phi) of the same track N relative to the calm period at the time t-tau, Indicating the time delay for the change in oxygen to nitrogen ratio to lead the change in TEC; 、 regression coefficients obtained by fitting historical data.
4. The method for ionospheric pre-warning and evaluating based on FY3E ionosphere photometer of claim 1, wherein the quantitative evaluation model further introduces a space-time comprehensive gradient G to correct the time delay regression model, and the corrected model expression is: ; Wherein, the An O/N 2 spatiotemporal complex gradient representing the nth track along trace point (λ, φ); is the gradient maximum determined based on historical observations.
5. The method for ionospheric pre-warning and assessment based on FY3E ionosphere photometer of claim 1, wherein said spatio-temporal integrated gradient G is obtained by fusing a temporal rate of change Rt in a rail and a spatial proximity gradient Rs between rails, comprising the steps of: sequencing the multi-track oxygen-nitrogen ratio data according to the observation time, and screening time adjacent tracks based on a set time window; For adjacent along-track points in the same track, calculating the time change rate Rt in the track according to the ratio of the difference of the oxygen-nitrogen ratio to the time difference; For the target point of the current track, selecting a corresponding point with a space distance smaller than a set threshold value from the time adjacent tracks, and calculating a space adjacent gradient Rs between the tracks according to the ratio of the difference of the oxygen-nitrogen ratio and the space distance; And carrying out weighted fusion on the time change rate Rt in the track and the inter-track space adjacent gradient Rs after carrying out normalization processing to obtain the space-time comprehensive gradient G.
6. The method for ionospheric pre-warning and evaluating based on FY3E ionosphere photometer of claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the in-orbit time change rate Rt is as follows: R t =|O/N 2 (P)-O/N 2 (P ' )|/△t; Wherein P and P' are the time-adjacent along-track points on the same track n, and Deltat is the time difference between the two points.
7. The method for evaluating ionospheric storm warning based on FY3E ionometer according to claim 1, wherein the method for evaluating the intensity level of an ionospheric storm and issuing warning information comprises the steps of presetting a plurality of threshold ranges of TEC, wherein each threshold range corresponds to one ionospheric storm intensity level, comparing the predicted value of TEC with the threshold ranges to determine the current ionospheric storm intensity level, wherein the ionospheric intensity level comprises weak storm, medium storm and strong storm, and the corresponding threshold ranges of TEC are respectively delta TEC not less than 20TECU, delta TEC not less than 40TECU and delta TEC not less than 70TECU.

Description

Ionosphere storm early warning evaluation method based on FY3E ionosphere photometer Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of ionosphere storm early warning, in particular to an ionosphere storm early warning and evaluating method based on an FY3E ionosphere photometer. Background The ionosphere storm is one of the main disaster forms of space weather, the ionosphere electron density distribution can be obviously changed, so that satellite communication signal attenuation, the positioning accuracy of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is reduced or even interrupted, and the critical aerospace activities such as earth orbit satellite orbit prediction, spacecraft measurement and control and the ground short wave communication network are seriously influenced, so that the ionosphere storm quantitative evaluation technology with high precision and long early warning window is needed. The current ionosphere prediction early warning technology is mainly developed around a magnetic layer-ionosphere coupling physical process and depends on the observation and analysis of magnetic layer parameters and ionosphere parameters. For example, the core relies on geomagnetic stations or satellites, such as DSCOVR satellites in the united states, geomagnetic indexes (such as Kp indexes and Dst indexes) observed by China 'Quadrance-A' satellites, or magnetic field disturbance data, and early warning is realized through macroscopic association of magnetic layer disturbance and ionosphere storm, and when Dst indexes rapidly drop (such as drop more than 50nT in 1 hour) or Kp indexes exceed 6, occurrence of the magnetic storm is judged, and the ionosphere is presumed to be possible to occur. In addition, there are also ionospheric pre-warning methods that directly monitor critical parameters of ionization, such as ionospheric altimeter, incoherent scattering radar (such as us Arecibo radar, incoherent scattering radar in china), etc., and observe real-time changes of parameters such as ionospheric electron density and ion composition to realize ionospheric pre-warning, when critical frequency foF of ionospheric F2 layer is reduced by more than 10% in 1 hour, it is determined that ionospheric storm occurs, and the ionospheric strength can be directly reflected, or the development process of the ionospheric storm can be accurately depicted by acquiring ionospheric profile data (such as electron density and ion temperature of different heights) with high spatial-temporal resolution of incoherent scattering radar. Early warning and strength evaluation of the ionosphere storm in the current magnetic storm period mainly depend on geomagnetism and ionosphere observation to realize early warning. The early warning technology based on geomagnetic observation is essentially that the magnetic layer disturbance leads to the causal relation of the ionosphere storm, and has three defects that firstly, an early warning window is extremely short (usually less than 30 minutes), the time difference from the triggering of a magnetic storm signal to the response of the ionosphere storm is insufficient to support the advanced deployment of aerospace activities (such as satellite orbit adjustment and communication link protection, and the like), secondly, whether the occurrence of the problem is only qualitatively judged, the intensity level of the ionosphere storm (such as weak ionosphere storm, medium ionosphere storm and strong ionosphere) cannot be quantitatively distinguished based on the change amplitude of key parameters such as the ionosphere electron density and the drift speed, and the like, so that a user cannot formulate a differential protection strategy according to the intensity of the ionosphere storm is caused, thirdly, the space adaptability is poor, the causal relation between geomagnetism and the ionosphere is easy to generate nonlinear distortion under the complex geomagnetic environments such as polar region magnetic heavy-weight, equatorial abnormal region, and the like, and the corresponding relation between the critical frequency foF of a height measurer F2 layer and the ionosphere intensity is invalid. Based on the early warning technology of direct observation of ionosphere key parameters (such as electron density, ion temperature and the like), double bottlenecks of synchronism and coverage exist, namely, on one hand, ionosphere observation data and ionosphere storm occur synchronously, for example, detection of the ionosphere electron density by incoherent scattering radar takes about 10-15 minutes from signal transmission to data inversion, a typical development period of the ionosphere storm is only 30-60 minutes, effective early warning time is almost not available, on the other hand, the ionosphere observation equipment is seriously unevenly distributed, such as only about 20 ionosphere incoherent scattering radar is distributed globally, and is deployed in middle and high latitude areas