CN-121996989-A - Air conditioner credible adjustable capacity quantification method and system based on cluster analysis

CN121996989ACN 121996989 ACN121996989 ACN 121996989ACN-121996989-A

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution systems, in particular to a clustering analysis-based air conditioner credible adjustable capacity quantization method and a clustering analysis-based air conditioner credible adjustable capacity quantization system, wherein the method comprises the steps of obtaining operation parameters of each air conditioner in a target regulation and control area, and calculating up-adjustable power and down-adjustable power of each air conditioner according to the parameters; the method comprises the steps of clustering air conditioners to obtain a plurality of air conditioner clusters, carrying out statistical analysis on parameters of each cluster to obtain uncertainty statistical characteristics, establishing a probability model of the adjustable capacity of the air conditioner clusters based on the statistical characteristics, calculating probability distribution of the adjustable capacity of each cluster, calculating the credible adjustable capacity according to a preset credibility level, and obtaining the overall credible adjustable capacity of a target area through aggregation, and finally, correcting a calculation result by considering actual constraint factors of air conditioner adjustment.

Inventors

WANG CHONG
JIANG LING
LI YANG
ZHANG CHENG

Assignees

河海大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20260407

Claims (10)

1. A method for quantifying the trusted and adjustable capacity of an air conditioner based on cluster analysis, which is characterized by comprising the following steps: acquiring operation related parameters of each air conditioner in a target regulation and control area, and determining the up-adjustable power and the down-adjustable power corresponding to each air conditioner based on the operation related parameters; Clustering air conditioners based on the operation related parameters to obtain a plurality of air conditioner clusters, and carrying out statistical analysis on air conditioner parameters in each air conditioner cluster to obtain statistical features for representing uncertainty of the air conditioner clusters; Based on the statistical characteristics, establishing a probability model of the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity to obtain probability distribution characteristics of the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity and the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity; Based on the probability distribution characteristics, calculating the credible upward adjustment capability and the credible downward adjustment capability of each air conditioner cluster according to a preset credibility level, and aggregating the credible adjustment capability of each air conditioner cluster to obtain the credible adjustment capability of the air conditioner in the target regulation area; Based on the actual constraint factors of the air conditioner participation adjustment, the obtained trusted and adjustable capacity of the air conditioner in the target regulation and control area is corrected, and the corrected trusted and adjustable capacity of the air conditioner resource in the target regulation and control area is obtained.
2. The method for quantifying the trusted variable capacity of air conditioners based on cluster analysis according to claim 1, wherein the determining the up-tunable power and the down-tunable power corresponding to each air conditioner based on the operation-related parameters comprises: Based on historical electric power and temperature data of the air conditioners, a first-order equivalent thermal parameter model is established, and thermal resistance and thermal capacity of each air conditioner are obtained through identification; The up-tunable power is defined as the power increased by the air conditioner switching from the standby state to the rated operating state; The downregulated power is defined as the power reduced by the air conditioner switching from the nominal operating state to the standby state.
3. The method for quantifying the trusted and adjustable capacity of an air conditioner based on cluster analysis according to claim 2, wherein the parameter identification of the first-order equivalent thermal parameter model specifically comprises: selecting two stable-state working points with zero indoor temperature change rate in historical operation data of the air conditioner, and calculating thermal resistance based on an indoor temperature difference value of the two stable-state working points and an air conditioner refrigerating capacity difference value; And calculating the heat capacity according to the thermal resistance and the thermal time constant reversely obtained by the historical temperature curve.
4. The method for quantifying the trusted capability of air conditioners based on cluster analysis according to claim 1, wherein the clustering the air conditioners based on the operation related parameters comprises: The thermal resistance, heat capacity, set temperature, rated electric power and rated refrigeration power of each air conditioner form a state vector and are normalized; determining the weight of each parameter in the state vector by adopting an analytic hierarchy process; Based on the weighted Euclidean distance, the normalized state vector is clustered by using an improved K-means++ algorithm, and a plurality of air conditioner clusters are obtained.
5. The method for quantifying the trusted and adjustable capacity of air conditioners based on cluster analysis according to claim 1, wherein the statistical analysis is performed on the air conditioner parameters in each air conditioner cluster, and the obtained statistical features include mathematical expectations and variances of the parameters in each air conditioner cluster.
6. The method for quantifying the trusted and adjustable capacity of air conditioners based on cluster analysis according to claim 1, wherein the establishing a probability model of the adjustable capacity of air conditioner clusters specifically comprises: based on an error propagation principle, calculating the expected and variance of the starting time length, the standby time length and the working duty ratio of each air conditioner cluster under steady-state operation according to the expected and variance of parameters in each air conditioner cluster; Based on the probability distribution of the duty cycle, the expectations and variances of the up-and down-tunable capacities of the air conditioning clusters are calculated, and the probability distribution is established based on normal distribution assumptions.
7. The method for quantifying the trusted adjustable capacity of air conditioners based on cluster analysis according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the trusted adjustable capacity and the trusted adjustable capacity of each air conditioner cluster according to a preset level of trust comprises the following specific implementation steps: for each air conditioning cluster, respectively determining mathematical expectations and standard deviations of each air conditioning cluster according to probability distribution characteristics of the up-adjustable capacity and the down-adjustable capacity of the air conditioning cluster; and calculating a credible up-regulation capacity boundary value and a credible down-regulation capacity boundary value under the credibility level based on the mathematical expectation, the standard deviation and the standard normal distribution quantile corresponding to the selected credibility level.
8. The method for quantifying the trusted adjustable capacity of air conditioners based on cluster analysis according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the trusted adjustable capacity and the trusted adjustable capacity of each air conditioner cluster according to a preset level of trust specifically comprises: Calculating the boundary value of the adjustable capacity under the appointed confidence level according to the expectations and variances of the adjustable capacity and the standard normal distribution quantile, wherein the preset credibility level at least comprises 50%, 80%, 90%, 95%, 99% and 100%.
9. The method for quantifying the trusted and adjustable capacity of an air conditioner based on cluster analysis according to claim 1, wherein the modifying specifically comprises: According to the external temperature, the historical adjustment times, the communication packet loss rate and the time delay, a breach of faith coefficient, a repeated adjustment coefficient and a communication time delay coefficient are calculated respectively; synthesizing the breach of faith coefficients, the repeated adjustment coefficients and the communication delay coefficients to obtain an adjustment response capability index; And reducing the trusted adjustability by using the adjustment response capability index to obtain the corrected trusted adjustability.
10. A cluster analysis-based air conditioner trusted adjustability quantification system, the system comprising: The parameter acquisition and identification module is used for acquiring operation related parameters of each air conditioner in the target regulation and control area and determining the up-adjustable power and the down-adjustable power corresponding to each air conditioner based on the operation related parameters; The clustering and statistical analysis module is used for clustering the air conditioners based on the operation related parameters to obtain a plurality of air conditioner clusters, and carrying out statistical analysis on the air conditioner parameters in each air conditioner cluster to obtain statistical characteristics for representing the uncertainty of the air conditioner clusters; The probability modeling module is used for establishing a probability model of the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity based on the statistical characteristics to obtain probability distribution characteristics of the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity and the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity; the credibility calculation and aggregation module is used for calculating the credibility up-regulation capability and the credibility down-regulation capability of each air-conditioning cluster according to a preset credibility level based on the probability distribution characteristics, and aggregating the credibility adjustability of each air-conditioning cluster to obtain the credibility adjustability of the air conditioner in the target regulation area; The correction module is used for correcting the obtained credible adjustable capacity of the air conditioner in the target regulation area based on the actual constraint factors of the air conditioner participating in regulation, and obtaining the corrected credible adjustable capacity of the air conditioner resource in the target regulation area.

Description

Air conditioner credible adjustable capacity quantification method and system based on cluster analysis Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution systems, in particular to an air conditioner credible adjustable capacity quantification method and system based on cluster analysis. Background The air conditioner adjusting capability refers to the capability of an air conditioner capable of adjusting refrigeration or heating power according to external environment change or power grid demand change, the air conditioner has certain thermal inertia, namely, the air conditioner can change power in a short time without significantly influencing indoor temperature, so that the air conditioner has the potential of being used as a demand response resource, in a smart grid, the air conditioner can be used as a demand side management resource, and the power output of the air conditioner is adjusted to help balance the power grid load, so that quantification of the air conditioner credible adjustable capability is particularly important for power grid scheduling. Currently, there are some methods that attempt to quantify the adjustability of an air conditioner by historical operation data of the air conditioner, which are generally based on the electric power and temperature data of the air conditioner, and estimate its adjustability by means of statistical analysis or regression models, however, these existing methods mostly rely on static data, neglecting dynamic changes of the air conditioner during actual adjustment, resulting in large deviations in its calculated adjustability, while many methods do not introduce reliability analysis, lack quantification of the air conditioner's ability at different confidence levels, and the scheduling system may therefore face a high risk of uncertainty. The information disclosed in this background section is only for enhancement of understanding of the general background of the invention and should not be taken as an acknowledgement or any form of suggestion that this information forms the prior art already known to a person skilled in the art. Disclosure of Invention The invention provides a clustering analysis-based air conditioner credible adjustable capacity quantification method and system, and aims to effectively solve the problems in the background technology. In order to achieve the aim, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is that the air conditioner credible adjustable capacity quantization method based on cluster analysis comprises the following steps: acquiring operation related parameters of each air conditioner in a target regulation and control area, and determining the up-adjustable power and the down-adjustable power corresponding to each air conditioner based on the operation related parameters; Clustering air conditioners based on the operation related parameters to obtain a plurality of air conditioner clusters, and carrying out statistical analysis on air conditioner parameters in each air conditioner cluster to obtain statistical features for representing uncertainty of the air conditioner clusters; Based on the statistical characteristics, establishing a probability model of the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity to obtain probability distribution characteristics of the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity and the air conditioning cluster adjustable capacity; Based on the probability distribution characteristics, calculating the credible upward adjustment capability and the credible downward adjustment capability of each air conditioner cluster according to a preset credibility level, and aggregating the credible adjustment capability of each air conditioner cluster to obtain the credible adjustment capability of the air conditioner in the target regulation area; Based on the actual constraint factors of the air conditioner participation adjustment, the obtained trusted and adjustable capacity of the air conditioner in the target regulation and control area is corrected, and the corrected trusted and adjustable capacity of the air conditioner resource in the target regulation and control area is obtained. Further, the determining the up-adjustable power and the down-adjustable power corresponding to each air conditioner based on the operation related parameters includes: Based on historical electric power and temperature data of the air conditioners, a first-order equivalent thermal parameter model is established, and thermal resistance and thermal capacity of each air conditioner are obtained through identification; The up-tunable power is defined as the power increased by the air conditioner switching from the standby state to the rated operating state; The downregulated power is defined as the power reduced by the air conditioner switching from the nominal operating state to the standby state. Further, the parameter identification of the first-order equivalent thermal parameter model spe