CN-121997296-A - Carbon emission calculation method and system based on building main material equivalent

CN121997296ACN 121997296 ACN121997296 ACN 121997296ACN-121997296-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a carbon emission calculation method and system based on building main material equivalent, belongs to the technical field of carbon emission calculation, and solves the problems of high data demand, low calculation speed and insufficient applicability of the existing carbon emission calculation method. According to the invention, key main materials are screened out by analyzing historical project data, an algorithm model between consumption and total carbon emission is constructed, so that 'few data and high accuracy' quick calculation is realized, indirect carbon emission generated by building material production, transportation and construction is mapped to the key main materials through weights, a whole-process carbon emission equivalent evaluation system is established, and the whole-process carbon emission can be output in one step by inputting consumption. The model output provides transparent decision basis for the interpretable regression equation with definite coefficient weight, and in addition, because the key main materials are predetermined through the algorithm, the new project can directly utilize the existing key main material consumption in the engineering cost flow to carry out the rapid calculation of the carbon emission.

Inventors

XIE QIMIAO
ZHU HAIXING
XIONG CHENXI
YANG YUKE
ZHANG QIANRU

Assignees

四川大学锦江学院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20260130

Claims (9)

1. The carbon emission calculation method based on the building main material equivalent is characterized by comprising the following steps of: S100, collecting total data of a plurality of historical building projects, wherein the total data at least comprises three dimensions of building material consumption, building material construction and building material transportation; S200, preprocessing the total data of each historical building project, and converting the carbon emission data of all dimensions of the preprocessed data into the total materialized carbon emission; S300, calculating a pearson correlation coefficient between each building material in building material consumption and the total materialized carbon emission amount of each historical building project, taking a corresponding building material with the pearson correlation coefficient larger than a preset coefficient threshold as a primary screening main material, calculating a variance expansion factor between each primary screening main material and other primary screening main materials, and taking a corresponding primary screening main material with the variance expansion factor smaller than a preset factor threshold as a main material to be determined; S400, calculating construction energy consumption coupling influence indexes between each undetermined main material and corresponding building material construction data in each historical building project, acquiring an average value of the construction energy consumption coupling influence indexes of each undetermined main material, and taking the corresponding undetermined main material with the average value larger than a preset coupling threshold value as a key main material; S500, respectively taking the consumption of each key main material and the total materialized carbon emission in each historical building project as independent variables and dependent variables to construct a linear regression model, and introducing a regularization penalty term to solve coefficient vectors of the linear regression model; s600, obtaining consumption of each key main material in the new building project, and inputting the solved linear regression model to obtain the total materialized carbon emission of the new building project.
2. The method for calculating carbon emissions based on building main material equivalent according to claim 1, wherein the expression for converting the total amount of materialized carbon emissions for each historic building project is: ; ; ; ; Wherein, the The total amount of materialized carbon emissions for each historic building project; 、 And The materialized carbon emission of building material production, building material transportation and building material construction are respectively carried out; And Respectively the first Consumption of seed building materials and carbon emission factors; the total number of categories of the building materials; And Respectively the first Average transport distance and carbon emission factor of transport distance per unit weight of the seed building material; And Respectively in the construction stage of building materials The total energy consumption and the carbon emission factor of the seeds; Is the total amount of energy.
3. The method for calculating carbon emissions based on building main material equivalent according to claim 1, wherein the expression for calculating the pearson correlation coefficient between the total amount of materialized carbon emissions for each building material and each historic building item in the building material consumption dimension is: Wherein, the Is the first Pearson correlation coefficient of the seed building material; Is the first Item number of historical building Consumption of seed building materials; Is the first Total amount of materialized carbon emissions for each historic building project; is the total number of historical building projects; For all historic building projects Average consumption of seed building materials; the total amount of materialized carbon emissions in all historic building projects is averaged.
4. The method for calculating carbon emissions based on building main material equivalent according to claim 1, wherein the expression for calculating the variance expansion factor between each preliminary screening main material and the other preliminary screening main materials is: Wherein, the Is the first Primarily screening variance expansion factors of the main materials; Is the first And the goodness of fit between each primary screening main material and other primary screening main materials.
5. The method for calculating carbon emissions based on building master equivalents according to claim 1, wherein the expression for calculating the construction energy consumption coupling influence index between each of the undetermined master materials and the corresponding building material construction dimension data in each of the historic building projects is: Wherein, the Is the first The construction energy consumption coupling influence index of the undetermined main material is planted; Is the first Pearson correlation coefficient of the undetermined master material; is a correlation nonlinear activation function; And Are all the weight coefficients of the two-dimensional space model, ; Constructing the whole period duration for the current historical building project; the total number of the types of building material construction equipment; To at the same time Time, consumption unit The first to be called by the species pending master material The bench quota of the seed machine; Is the first The unit energy consumption intensity of the building material construction equipment; Is the first Carbon emission factor conversion coefficients of the building material construction equipment; Is the first Standard deviation of dispersion of undetermined main material consumption and corresponding building material construction equipment; Is a gaussian time domain decay weight factor, Is the first The consumption rate of the main material to be determined reaches the central moment of the peak value; For all historic building projects An arithmetic mean of standard deviations of the amounts of consumption of the species of the undetermined master material over time; To correct the deviation value.
6. The method for calculating carbon emissions based on building main material equivalent according to claim 1, wherein step S500 comprises: S510, constructing a linear regression model, wherein the expression is as follows: Wherein, the Is a dependent variable vector; 、、 And Respectively 1 st, 2 nd And (b) Total amount of materialized carbon emissions for each historic building project; is an independent variable vector; 、 And 1 St of 1 st historic building projects respectively And (b) The consumption of key main materials; 、 And 1 St and 1 st of the 2 nd historic building projects respectively And (b) The consumption of key main materials; 、 And Respectively the first 1 St of historic building projects And (b) The consumption of key main materials; 、 And Respectively the first 1 St of historic building projects And (b) The consumption of key main materials; is a coefficient vector; Is the intercept; 、 And Respectively 1 st And (b) Weights of the key main materials; Is an error vector; s520, constructing an objective function of a linear regression model, wherein the expression is as follows: Wherein, the Is an objective function; Is a regularization parameter; S530, to objective function Solving the derivative and setting zero : Wherein, the Is an identity matrix.
7. The method of calculating carbon emissions based on building master equivalents according to claim 6, wherein step S500 further comprises: S540, acquiring a verification set, wherein each sample of the verification set comprises the key main material consumption and the real carbon emission total of the building project; S550, inputting the key main material consumption of each sample of the verification set into the solved linear regression model to obtain the predicted total carbon emission of each sample; S560, calculating the goodness of fit of the verification set Average absolute percentage error : ; Wherein, the And Respectively the first The actual carbon emission total and the predicted carbon emission total of the individual samples; The total number of samples for the validation set; The average value of the total actual carbon emission of all samples in the verification set; S570, judge And Whether the set thresholds are smaller than the respective set thresholds, if yes, the current linear regression model meets the requirements, otherwise, the step S580 is entered; s580 modifying regularization parameters For objective function Solving the derivative and setting zero For objective function Solving the derivative and setting zero After that, the process returns to step S540.
8. A system applied to the building main material equivalent based carbon emission calculation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, comprising: the data acquisition module is used for acquiring total data of a plurality of historical building projects, wherein the total data at least comprises data in three dimensions of building material consumption, building material construction and building material transportation; the data processing module is used for preprocessing the total data of each historical building project and converting the carbon emission data of all dimensions of the preprocessed data into the total materialized carbon emission; The main material screening module is used for calculating the pearson correlation coefficient between each building material and the total materialized carbon emission of each historical building project in building material consumption, taking the corresponding building material with the pearson correlation coefficient larger than a preset coefficient threshold as a primary screening main material, calculating the variance expansion factor between each primary screening main material and other primary screening main materials, and taking the corresponding primary screening main material with the variance expansion factor smaller than the preset factor threshold as the main material to be screened; The key main material screening module is used for calculating construction energy consumption coupling influence indexes between each undetermined main material and corresponding building material construction data in each historical building project, acquiring an average value of the construction energy consumption coupling influence indexes of each undetermined main material, and taking the corresponding undetermined main material with the average value larger than a preset coupling threshold value as a key main material; the linear regression model construction module is used for respectively constructing a linear regression model by taking the consumption of each key main material and the total emission of the materialized carbon in each historical building project as independent variables and dependent variables, and introducing a regularization penalty term to solve coefficient vectors of the linear regression model; and the decision module is used for predicting the total materialized carbon emission of the new building project by utilizing a linear regression model according to the consumption of each key main material in the new building project.
9. The system of building master equivalent based carbon emission calculation method according to claim 8, further comprising: The management module is used for setting a plurality of management periods in the new building project, decomposing a carbon emission reference value in the new building project into carbon emission limits corresponding to the plurality of management periods, predicting the total materialized carbon emission of the corresponding management period according to the consumption of key main materials in each management period, judging whether the total materialized carbon emission of the current management period exceeds the carbon emission limit, if so, carrying out early warning, and otherwise, carrying out data archiving on the total materialized carbon emission of the current management period.

Description

Carbon emission calculation method and system based on building main material equivalent Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission calculation, in particular to a carbon emission calculation method and system based on building main material equivalent. Background As global climate change becomes increasingly critical, the building industry has become one of the major sources of carbon emissions, with low carbonization conversion becoming critical to achieving the "two carbon" goal. The carbon emission of the whole life cycle of the building mainly comprises the stages of building material production, transportation, construction, building operation, demolition and recovery and the like. Along with the continuous improvement of building energy-saving standards, the energy consumption and carbon emission in the operation stage are controlled to a certain extent, and the materialization stage including building material production, transportation and construction processes becomes the key point and the difficulty of building emission reduction. At present, aiming at calculation and prediction of the carbon emission of buildings, the prior art is mainly realized through the following paths: the first is a full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) theory-based inventory analysis method, such as a full life cycle theory-based community carbon emission calculation model disclosed in CN116756468a, which generally relies on a detailed bill of materials, and calculates the total amount by summarizing activity level data of all building materials, construction machinery shifts, and transportation distances, and multiplying the corresponding carbon emission factors. However, this type of method has the disadvantage of extremely strong dependence on the complete data, and the calculation process is cumbersome and time-consuming. The method cannot be used in a low data environment with data loss, and cannot exert a guiding effect. The second type is a refined calculation method based on a Building Information Model (BIM), for example, a low-carbon building material selection method based on a BIM 5D technology disclosed by a public number CN120338404A, and the method is used for calculating by analyzing component information extracted from the BIM model, so that the accuracy is high. However, this type of approach has the disadvantage of requiring extremely high integrity and fineness (LOD scale) of the BIM model. Building a high-precision BIM model needs to put into a large amount of manpower and time cost, and if material property definition in the model is not standard, calculation result deviation is very easy to cause, and the requirement of quick estimation is difficult to meet. The third category is artificial intelligence based prediction methods, such as a building carbon emission prediction method based on the FE-BO-HGBoost combination model disclosed in publication No. CN121119370a, which mainly uses historical data training models to predict carbon emissions. However, the model has obvious defects that on one hand, the model presents a 'black box' characteristic, the definite quantitative relation between an input variable (such as the specific main material consumption) and a carbon emission result is difficult to reveal, and the physical interpretability is lacking, on the other hand, the existing model is often used for splitting a calculation boundary, only focusing operation energy consumption or isolating links of building materials, transportation and construction, and the integrated mapping relation between key main materials and the total materialized carbon emission including transportation and construction cannot be established, so that the inherent strong correlation is ignored. In summary, in terms of building carbon emission accounting, the prior art either relies on extremely detailed project full life cycle data to cause higher cost and calculation lag, or adopts a complex black box model to lose guidance meaning in engineering application, so that the problems of high data demand, low calculation speed and insufficient applicability exist. Disclosure of Invention Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a carbon emission calculation method and a system based on building main material equivalent, which solve the problems of high data demand, low calculation speed and insufficient applicability of the existing carbon emission calculation method. In order to achieve the aim of the invention, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: In one aspect, a method for calculating carbon emissions based on building main material equivalent is provided, comprising the steps of: S100, collecting total data of a plurality of historical building projects, wherein the total data at least comprises three dimensions of building material consumption, building material construction and building material transportation; s200, preprocessing the total dat