CN-121997695-A - Land oil pipeline target reliability determination method based on accident risk analysis

CN121997695ACN 121997695 ACN121997695 ACN 121997695ACN-121997695-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a land oil pipeline target reliability determining method based on accident risk analysis, which comprises the steps of obtaining historical accident data of a land oil pipeline, constructing a plurality of historical accident data sets based on the historical accident data sets, building accident result calculation models based on the historical accident data sets, determining a reference risk value of a pipeline section, calculating the reference failure probability of the pipeline section based on the reference risk value, building a land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model based on the reference failure probability and the accident result models, and calculating the land oil pipeline target reliability of different environment areas based on the land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model. The invention considers the environmental sensitivity of oil pipeline accidents, also considers the continuous updating of the historical accident data set of the land oil pipeline in the future, and the standard of the invention is easy to recalibrate in the future, thereby being better suitable for the development of the pipeline industry.

Inventors

Xie Kekai
LIU WENLIANG
CHEN SHILU
ZHAO ZIHAN
CHEN LONG
Dou Xuzhao
LI QI
Teng Qiyang
ZHANG YUZE

Assignees

中国石油工程建设有限公司
中国石油天然气集团有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20241108

Claims (10)

1. The land oil pipeline target reliability determining method based on accident risk analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps of: acquiring historical accident data of a land oil pipeline; Constructing a plurality of historical incident data sets based on the historical incident data; establishing an accident consequence calculation model based on a plurality of the historical accident data sets; Determining a reference risk value of the pipe section, and calculating a reference failure probability of the pipe section based on the reference risk value; establishing a land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model based on the reference failure probability and the accident result model; and calculating the target reliability of the land oil pipeline in different environment areas based on the target reliability calculation model of the land oil pipeline.
2. The method for determining the target reliability of a land oil pipeline based on accident risk analysis of claim 1, wherein the constructing a plurality of historical accident data sets based on the historical accident data further comprises: data screening is carried out on the historical accident data to obtain historical accident target data; and classifying the historical accident target data based on the division standard of the extreme limit state and the leakage limit state to obtain a historical accident data set of the extreme limit state and a historical accident data set of the leakage limit state.
3. The method for determining the target reliability of a land oil pipeline based on accident risk analysis according to claim 2, wherein the historical accident target data comprises a pipeline operator name, a pipeline operation mileage, an accident occurrence year, a pipe diameter, a leakage volume and an accident cause.
4. A land oil pipeline target reliability determination method based on accident risk analysis according to claim 2, wherein the extreme limit state historical accident data set comprises historical accident data for mechanical perforations and pipeline cracking resulting in leakage, and the leakage limit state historical accident data set comprises historical accident data for pipeline pinholes resulting in leakage.
5. The method for determining the reliability of a land oil pipeline target based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, wherein the step of establishing an accident consequence calculation model based on a plurality of the historical accident data sets comprises: Counting leakage in an extreme limit state and a leakage limit state in the historical accident data set, wherein the leakage in the extreme limit state comprises leakage of mechanical perforation and leakage of rupture accident, and the leakage in the leakage limit state comprises leakage of a small hole of a pipeline; respectively carrying out data fitting on the leakage quantity under the extreme limit state and the leakage limit state to obtain accident consequence models corresponding to the extreme limit state and the leakage limit state, wherein The accident consequence model of the leakage limit state is: The accident consequence model of the extreme limit state is: Wherein, the The single leakage quantity is m 3 of the small hole leakage accident; m 3 , the single leakage quantity of the pipeline rupture leakage accident; The leakage quantity is the single leakage quantity of the mechanical perforation leakage accident, m 3 , and D is the outer diameter of the pipeline, m.
6. The method for determining the reliability of a land oil pipeline target based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, wherein the method for determining the reference risk value comprises the following steps: Further screening the historical accident data set to obtain operators with top N of the ranking of the total mileage; Calculating the total volume of n accident leakage occurring in a given year for each operator in the historical accident data set, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: Where V year is the total volume of n accident leaks that occur in a given year, and V i,year is the leak volume of a single accident in a given year; The leak rate per kilometer pipe section in a given year is calculated for each operator as: Where r year is the leak rate per kilometer pipe section per operator in a given year, and m year is the pipe running mileage of the operator in the given year; Calculating the annual average leakage rate of each kilometer pipe section accident of each operator, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: in the formula, Year-of-accident average leak rate per kilometer pipe section for each operator, year 1 is the beginning year of the accident statistics, year 2 is the ending year of the accident statistics; Sequencing weighted averages of leakage rates of every kilometer pipe section of each operator from small to large, calculating quartiles and averages, and selecting a lower quartile Q1 in the quartiles and the averages as risk reference values.
7. The method for determining the reliability of an onshore oil pipeline target based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the reference failure probability is: Wherein P max is the annual reference failure probability of each kilometer of pipe section, namely the maximum allowable failure probability, r 0 is the risk reference value of the pipe section, and c represents the accident result calculated by the accident result calculation model, namely the single leakage amount of the pipeline leakage accident.
8. The method for determining the reliability of a land oil pipeline target based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, wherein the land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model is as follows: Wherein R T is the target reliability of the land oil pipeline.
9. The method for determining the reliability of the land oil pipeline target based on the accident risk analysis according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the reliability of the land oil pipeline target for different environmental areas based on the land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model comprises: considering the difference of environmental sensitivity of different areas of the pipeline, dividing the pipeline path area into a high-consequence area and a non-high-consequence area; and respectively calculating the target reliability of the land oil pipeline in the high-result area and the land oil pipeline in the non-high-result area.
10. The method for determining the reliability of a land oil pipeline target based on accident risk analysis according to claim 9, wherein the calculating the reliability of a land oil pipeline target for the high-consequence area and the non-high-consequence area, respectively, further comprises: calculating mileage factors alpha and environment influence factors beta according to the pipeline mileage and the environment risk of the high result area and the non-high result area, Wherein the mileage factor alpha is: wherein m HCA is mileage of a high-consequence area of the oil pipeline, and m Non-HCA is mileage of a non-high-consequence area of the oil pipeline; The environmental impact factor beta is: Wherein r Non-HCA is the environmental risk of oil pipeline leakage accidents in non-high result areas, and r HCA is the environmental risk of oil pipeline leakage accidents in high result areas; And respectively calculating land oil pipeline risk reference values of a high-result area and a non-high-result area by combining the environment influence factor beta and the mileage factor alpha, wherein the land oil pipeline risk reference values are as follows: Wherein r 0_HCA is a land oil pipeline risk reference value of a high-consequence area, and r 0_Non-HCA is a land oil pipeline risk reference value of a non-high-consequence area; based on the risk reference value r 0 , the accident result V, the mileage factor alpha and the environmental impact factor beta, respectively establishing a land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model of a high result area and a non-high result area as follows: High outcome region: Non-high outcome region: Wherein R T_HCA is the target reliability of the land oil pipeline in the high-consequence area, and R T_Non-HCA is the target reliability of the land oil pipeline in the non-high-consequence area; The land oil pipeline target reliability calculation models of the high-consequence area and the non-high-consequence area in the extreme limit state are respectively as follows: the land oil pipeline target reliability calculation models of the high-consequence area and the non-high-consequence area under the leakage limit state are respectively as follows: Wherein R 0_ULS is a risk reference value in an extreme limit state, R 0_LLS is a risk reference value in a leakage limit state, R T_HCA_ULD is land oil pipeline target reliability of a high-consequence area in the extreme limit state, R T_Non-HCA_ULS is land oil pipeline target reliability of a non-high-consequence area in the extreme limit state, R T_HCA_LLS is land oil pipeline target reliability of a high-consequence area in the leakage limit state, and R T_Non-HCA_LLS is land oil pipeline target reliability of a non-high-consequence area in the leakage limit state.

Description

Land oil pipeline target reliability determination method based on accident risk analysis Technical Field The invention belongs to the technical field of land oil pipeline design, and particularly relates to a land oil pipeline target reliability determination method based on accident risk analysis. Background With the continuous expansion of the scale of the oil and gas pipe network, the government is gradually strict in management and control of the safety risk of the pipeline, the social safety awareness is gradually improved, and further, higher requirements are generated on the reliability of the oil and gas pipeline, so that the reliability of the oil and gas pipeline is required to be evaluated by adopting a reliability design and evaluation method. The key of the reliability-based design and evaluation method is the determination of the target reliability and the calculation of the reliability, wherein the target reliability represents the lowest reliability of the oil and gas pipeline under the conveying task, namely, when the pipeline meets the requirement of the target reliability, the pipeline can be considered to be reliably operated. At present, related specifications are formulated for the target reliability of natural gas pipelines in many countries, and guidance is provided for the design of newly built pipelines and the operation and maintenance of in-service pipelines. However, currently, there are few studies on a method for determining the target reliability of an oil pipeline, and no corresponding evaluation criteria exist. Disclosure of Invention In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a land oil pipeline target reliability determining method based on accident risk analysis, so as to solve the problem of the defect in the existing oil pipeline target reliability formulation. A land oil pipeline target reliability determining method based on accident risk analysis comprises the following steps: acquiring historical accident data of a land oil pipeline; Constructing a plurality of historical incident data sets based on the historical incident data; establishing an accident outcome calculation model based on the plurality of historical accident data sets; Determining a reference risk value of the pipe section, and calculating a reference failure probability of the pipe section based on the reference risk value; establishing a land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model based on the reference failure probability and the accident consequence model; and calculating the reliability of the land oil pipeline targets in different environment areas based on the land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model. According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, constructing a plurality of historical incident data sets based on the historical incident data further comprises: data screening is carried out on the historical accident data to obtain historical accident target data; and classifying the historical accident target data based on the division standard of the extreme limit state and the leakage limit state to obtain a historical accident data set of the extreme limit state and a historical accident data set of the leakage limit state. According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the historical incident objective data includes a pipe operator name, a pipe operating mileage, an incident year, a pipe diameter, a leakage volume, and an incident cause. According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the extreme state historical incident data set includes historical incident data for mechanical perforations and pipe breaks resulting in leaks, and the leak limit state historical incident data set includes historical incident data for pipe pinholes resulting in leaks. According to one embodiment of the present invention, building an accident outcome calculation model based on a plurality of historical accident data sets includes: counting leakage in an extreme limit state and a leakage limit state in the historical accident data set, wherein the leakage in the extreme limit state comprises leakage of mechanical perforation and leakage of rupture accident, and the leakage in the leakage limit state comprises leakage of small holes of a pipeline; respectively carrying out data fitting on the leakage quantity under the extreme limit state and the leakage limit state to obtain accident consequence models corresponding to the extreme limit state and the leakage limit state, wherein The accident consequence model of the leakage limit state is: The accident consequence model of the extreme limit state is: Wherein, the The single leakage quantity is m 3 of the small hole leakage accident; m 3, the single leakage quantity of the pipeline rupture leakage accident; The leakage quantity is the single leakage quantity of the mechanical perforation leakage accident, m 3, and D is the outer diameter of the pipeline, m. According to one embod