CN-121998143-A - Shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil yield prediction method and device

CN121998143ACN 121998143 ACN121998143 ACN 121998143ACN-121998143-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil yield prediction method and device. The method comprises the steps of determining single-well average characteristic oil production change data of a reference well based on the oil production change data of the reference well, determining N production stages included in the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage according to the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and predicting the oil production of the target well in the production time of oil production to be predicted according to the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production time of the target well to be predicted, the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage. The method can relatively simply and quickly predict the oil yield of the shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well.

Inventors

LAI LINGBIN
CAO CHEN
ZHANG YUAN

Assignees

中国石油天然气股份有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20241105

Claims (12)

1. The method for predicting the oil yield of the shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Determining single-well average characteristic oil production change data of a reference well based on the oil production change data of the reference well, wherein the reference well is all fracturing horizontal wells except the target well in a target block, and the current actual production time of the target well is not less than 6 months; Determining N production stages included in the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage according to the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, wherein the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage include the stage production time of each production stage, the single-well average characteristic oil production change trend of each production stage and the fitting relation between the single-well average characteristic oil production data of each production stage and the production time of each stage; Determining the current production stage of the target well and the current actual produced duration of the stage according to the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production variation data of the target well and the oil production variation characteristics of the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well in each production stage; Determining the production time length of the target well to be predicted for oil production according to the current production stage of the target well, the current actual production time length of the stage, the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well of a reference well and the oil production change characteristic of each production stage, wherein the production time length of the target well to be predicted for oil production comprises the production time length of the target well to be predicted for oil production in the current production stage and the production time length of the target well to be predicted for oil production in each subsequent production stage; and predicting the oil production of the target well in the production time of the oil production to be predicted according to the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production time of the oil production to be predicted of the target well, the average characteristic oil production change data of the single well of the reference well and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the single well of the reference well in each production stage.
2. The method for predicting oil yield of a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well according to claim 1, wherein determining the oil yield change characteristics of the single well average characteristic oil yield change data of the reference well in each production stage according to the single well average characteristic oil yield change data of the reference well comprises N production stages, wherein the single well average characteristic oil yield change data of the reference well comprises: determining the change trend of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well along with the production time according to the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well; Dividing the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well into N production stages according to the change trend of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well along with the production time, and determining the stage production time of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage and the single-well average characteristic oil production change trend of each production stage; And fitting the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well with the single-well average characteristic oil production data of each production stage and the production time of the stage respectively to obtain a fitting relation between the single-well average characteristic oil production data of each production stage and the production time of the stage.
3. The method for predicting oil production of a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well according to any one of claims 1-2, wherein determining the current production stage and the current actual produced duration of the stage of the target well according to the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production variation data of the target well, and the oil production variation characteristics of the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well in each production stage comprises: determining the change trend of the current actual oil production change data of the target well along with the production time according to the current actual production time of the target well and the current actual oil production change data of the target well; And corresponding the current actual oil production change data of the target well with the change trend of the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well with the change trend of the production time, and determining the current production stage of the target well and the current actual produced duration of the stage.
4. The method of predicting oil production in a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well of claim 1, wherein determining the production time period of the target well to be predicted for oil production according to the current production stage of the target well and the current actual produced time period of the stage, the average characteristic oil production change data of the single well of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristic of each production stage, comprises: Determining the production duration of the oil production to be predicted of the current production stage of the target well based on the actual produced duration of the current production stage of the target well and the stage production duration of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage; And under the condition that the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has a subsequent production stage, determining the production time length of the target well in each subsequent production stage to be predicted according to the stage production time length of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each subsequent production stage.
5. The method for predicting oil production in a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well of claim 4, wherein determining the production duration of the target well in the current production phase to be predicted for oil production based on the actual produced duration of the current production phase of the target well and the phase production duration of the reference well in the corresponding production phase based on the single well average characteristic oil production variation data comprises: based on the current production stage of the target well, acquiring the stage production time length of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage; And determining a difference value between the phase production time of the target well in the current production phase and the actual produced time of the target well in the current production phase, and determining the difference value as the production time of the target well in the current production phase to be predicted for oil production.
6. The method for predicting oil production of a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well of claim 4, wherein, in the case that the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well still has a subsequent production phase, determining the production duration of the target well for predicting the oil production of each subsequent production phase according to the phase production duration of the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well in each subsequent production phase comprises: and under the condition that the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has a subsequent production stage, taking the stage production time of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each subsequent production stage as the production time of the target well in each subsequent corresponding production stage to be predicted.
7. The method of predicting oil production in a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well of claim 1, wherein predicting oil production in the target well for the duration of oil production to be predicted based on current actual oil production change data of the target well, the duration of oil production to be predicted in the target well, single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and oil production change characteristics of single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage comprises: Acquiring fitting relation between single-well average characteristic oil production data of a reference well in a corresponding production stage and production time of the single-well average characteristic oil production data of the reference well and single-well average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage according to the current production stage of the target well; Predicting the oil production of each time in the production duration of the oil production to be predicted of the target well in the current production stage according to the actual oil production data of the target well in the current production stage, the fitting relation between the single-well average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage and the production time of the single-well average characteristic oil production data of the reference well and the single-well average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage; Under the condition that the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well also has a subsequent production stage, the oil production of each time of the target well in the production duration of the oil production to be predicted of each subsequent production stage is predicted in sequence according to the sequence of the production stages of the target well, wherein the oil production of each time of the target well in the production duration of the oil production to be predicted of each subsequent production stage is predicted as follows: Under the condition that the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still exists in the next production stage, acquiring the fitting relation between the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the next production stage and the production time of the production stage and the oil production of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the 1 st time of the next production stage; And predicting the oil production of each time in the production duration of the target well in the oil production to be predicted in the next production stage according to the oil production of the target well in the 1 st time of the next production stage, the fitting relation between the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the next production stage and the production time of the production stage, and the oil production of the target well in the 1 st time of the next production stage is the oil production of the last time of the adjacent previous production stage.
8. The shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil production prediction method of claim 7, wherein the oil production of the target well at each time during the production time of the oil production to be predicted of the current production stage is predicted by the following formula: Wherein M 1 、M 2 、…、M i is actual oil production data of the target well at i times in the current production stage, W 1 、W 2 、…、W i is oil production data of the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at the first i times in the corresponding production stage, f (x) is a fitting relation between the single well average characteristic oil production data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage and the production time of the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage, x represents time, and y m represents predicted oil production of the target well.
9. The shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil production prediction method of claim 7, wherein the oil production of the target well at each time during the production time of the oil production to be predicted for the next production stage is predicted by the following formula: Wherein N 1 is the oil production of the target well at the 1 st time of the next production stage, U 1 is the oil production of the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at the 1 st time of the next production stage, f (x) is the fitting relation between the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage and the production time of the production stage, x represents time, and y m represents predicted oil production of the target well.
10. The utility model provides a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil yield prediction unit which characterized in that includes: the system comprises a data sorting module, a data processing module and a data processing module, wherein the data sorting module is used for determining single-well average characteristic oil production change data of a reference well based on the oil production change data of the reference well, the reference well is all fracturing horizontal wells except the target well in a target block, the current actual production time of the target well is not less than 6 months, and the production time of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well is longer than the current actual production time of the target well; The production phase dividing module is used for determining N production phases included in the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production phase according to the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, wherein the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production phase include the phase production time of each production phase, the single-well average characteristic oil production change trend of each production phase, the fitting relation between the single-well average characteristic oil production data of each production phase and the production time of the phase, and determining the current production phase and the current actual produced time of the target well according to the current actual production time of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production phase; The production time length determining module is used for determining the production time length of the target well to be predicted for oil production according to the current production stage of the target well, the current actual production time length of the stage, the average characteristic oil production change data of the single well of the reference well and the oil production change characteristic of each production stage; the oil production prediction module is used for predicting the oil production of the target well in the production duration of the oil production to be predicted according to the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the oil production to be predicted of the target well, the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and the oil production change characteristics of the single well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage.
11. A computer storage medium having stored therein computer executable instructions which when executed by a processor implement the shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil production prediction method of any of claims 1-9.
12. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and operable on the processor, the processor implementing the shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil production prediction method of any of claims 1-9 when executing the program.

Description

Shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil yield prediction method and device Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of petroleum development, in particular to a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil yield prediction method and device. Background Shale oil reservoirs have low matrix seepage capability and are often required to fracture the oil well to increase the seepage capability of the oil layer. Currently, shale oil reservoirs are developed mainly in a horizontal well and fracturing mode. After fracturing of horizontal wells, the horizontal wells are currently mainly exploited in a failure type development mode. In the failure type exploitation process of the fracturing horizontal well, the prediction of oil production of the oil well of the shale oil reservoir is important to the development of the shale oil reservoir, and how to predict the oil production of the oil well of the shale oil reservoir is a problem to be considered in the development process of the shale oil reservoir. Disclosure of Invention At present, reservoir numerical modeling is often used to predict oil production from shale oil reservoir wells. Reservoir numerical modeling is relatively labor intensive and takes a long time. In view of the problems, a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well oil yield prediction method and device are provided. The method can relatively simply and quickly predict the oil yield of the shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well. In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting oil yield of a shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well, including: determining single-well average characteristic oil production change data of a reference well based on the oil production change data of the reference well, wherein the reference well is all fracturing horizontal wells except the target well in a target block, and the current actual production time of the target well is not less than 6 months; Determining N production stages included in the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage according to the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, wherein the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage include the stage production time of each production stage, the single-well average characteristic oil production change trend of each production stage and the fitting relation between the single-well average characteristic oil production data of each production stage and the production time of each stage; Determining the current production stage of the target well and the current actual produced duration of the stage according to the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production variation data of the target well and the oil production variation characteristics of the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well in each production stage; Determining the production time length of the target well to be predicted for oil production according to the current production stage of the target well, the current actual production time length of the stage, the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well of the reference well and the oil production change characteristic of each production stage; and predicting the oil production of the target well in the production time of the oil production to be predicted according to the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production time of the oil production to be predicted of the target well, the average characteristic oil production change data of the single well of the reference well and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the single well of the reference well in each production stage. In some alternative embodiments, determining the N production stages included in the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well according to the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well, the oil production variation characteristics of the single well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well in each production stage includes: determining the change trend of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well along with the production time according to the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well; Dividing the single-well average characteristic oil production chan