CN-121998254-A - Forest carbon sink meteorological influence assessment method, system, equipment, medium and product

Abstract

The application discloses a forest carbon sink meteorological influence assessment method, a system, equipment, a medium and a product, and relates to the field of ecological environment; the method comprises the steps of estimating potential forest carbon sink quantity based on a difference value between potential net primary productivity and soil microorganism respiratory consumption carbon quantity, establishing a forest carbon sink climate utilization rate estimation model based on the actual forest carbon sink quantity and the potential forest carbon sink quantity by using a ratio method, calculating forest carbon sink climate resource utilization rate, establishing a forest carbon sink meteorological influence estimation model based on the forest carbon sink climate utilization rate by using a pitch-to-average percentage method, calculating a forest carbon sink meteorological influence index, determining a forest carbon sink meteorological influence grade based on the forest carbon sink meteorological influence index, and completing forest carbon sink meteorological influence estimation. The application can quantitatively and dynamically evaluate the carbon sink function of the forest ecosystem and the response of the forest ecosystem to the change of the meteorological conditions.

Inventors

• Mo Jianfei
• LI CHENGJIE
• HE JIELIN
• SUN MING
• MENG JINFENG
• HE LI
• ZHOU XIYUAN
• LI MINGZHI
• HU BEI
• XIE YING
• YAN HAO
• CHEN CHENG
• CHEN YANLI
• MO WEIHUA
• CAI HUIDE
• HUANG LU
• WU LIANGJUN
• CAO YUN

Assignees

• 广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所

Dates

Publication Date

20260508

Application Date

20260127

Claims (10)

1. 1. A forest carbon sink weather effect assessment method, comprising: based on meteorological data, estimating actual forest carbon quantity by adopting an individual-based forest carbon balance model; Estimating a potential forest carbon sink based on a difference between the potential net primary productivity and the soil microbial respiration consumption carbon quantity; based on the actual forest carbon sink quantity and the potential forest carbon sink quantity, establishing a forest carbon sink climate utilization rate estimation model by using a ratio method, and calculating the forest carbon sink climate resource utilization rate; based on the forest carbon sink climate utilization rate, constructing a forest carbon sink meteorological influence evaluation model by adopting a pitch-to-average percentage method, and calculating a forest carbon sink meteorological influence index; And determining the forest carbon sink weather influence grade based on the forest carbon sink weather influence index, and finishing the forest carbon sink weather influence evaluation.
2. 2. The forest carbon sink weather effect assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the expression of the individual-based forest carbon balance model is: the method comprises the steps of determining a total light amount of a forest, a net primary productivity of an ecological system, a net ecological system productivity, a maintenance respiration amount, a growth respiration amount and a soil heterotrophic respiration amount, wherein GPP, NPP, NEP, RM, RG, RE is the total light amount of the forest, the net primary productivity of the ecological system, the maintenance respiration amount, the growth respiration amount and the soil heterotrophic respiration amount, the forest carbon amount is represented by the net ecological system productivity, and represents the actual forest carbon amount when NEP >0 and represents the actual forest carbon source amount when NEP <0.
3. 3. The forest carbon sink weather effect assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the potential forest carbon sink is: Wherein, the As a potential forest carbon sink quantity, In order to have a potential net primary productivity, Carbon is consumed for the respiration of soil microorganisms, In order to achieve the actual amount of transpiration, In order to reduce the amount of water to be reduced, In order to be able to potentially evaporate the amount, In order to be able to achieve an average temperature, Is a logarithmic function based on e.
4. 4. The forest carbon sink weather effect evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the expression of the forest carbon sink weather utilization rate estimation model is: Wherein, the For the utilization rate of forest carbon sink climate resources in the t-th period, For the actual forest carbon sink amount in the t-th period, Is the potential forest carbon sink in the t period.
5. 5. The forest carbon sink weather effect evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the expression of the forest carbon sink weather effect evaluation model is: Wherein, the Is the forest carbon sink weather impact index of the t period, For the utilization rate of forest carbon sink climate resources in the t-th period, And (5) averaging the utilization rate of forest carbon sink climate resources for the t period for years.
6. 6. The forest carbon sink weather effect assessment method according to claim 1, wherein determining a forest carbon sink weather effect level based on the forest carbon sink weather effect index specifically comprises: When (when) Determining the forest carbon sink weather influence level as an adverse influence; is a forest carbon sink weather impact index, A weather-influencing index threshold for a first forest carbon sink; When (when) Determining the forest carbon sink weather influence level as a lower influence; A weather-influencing index threshold for a second forest carbon sink; When (when) When the forest carbon sink weather influence level is determined to be normal influence; a weather-influencing index threshold for a third forest carbon sink; When (when) When the forest carbon sink weather influence level is determined to be a more favorable influence; a fourth forest carbon sink weather impact index threshold; When (when) When the forest carbon sink weather influence level is determined to be a favorable influence; Wherein, the 。
7. 7. A forest carbon sink weather effect assessment system, comprising: The actual forest carbon sink estimation module is used for estimating the actual forest carbon sink based on meteorological data and an individual forest carbon balance model; A potential forest carbon sink estimation module for estimating a potential forest carbon sink based on a difference between the potential net primary productivity and the soil microbial respiration consumption carbon; The forest carbon sink climate resource utilization rate calculation module is used for establishing a forest carbon sink climate utilization rate estimation model by utilizing a ratio method based on the actual forest carbon sink and the potential forest carbon sink, and calculating the forest carbon sink climate resource utilization rate; the forest carbon sink weather influence index calculation module is used for constructing a forest carbon sink weather influence evaluation model based on the forest carbon sink weather utilization rate by adopting a pitch-to-average percentage method and calculating a forest carbon sink weather influence index; And the forest carbon sink weather influence level determining module is used for determining the forest carbon sink weather influence level based on the forest carbon sink weather influence index and finishing the forest carbon sink weather influence evaluation.
8. 8. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor executes the computer program to implement the forest carbon sink weather influence assessment method of any one of claims 1-6.
9. 9. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, which when executed by a processor implements the forest carbon sink weather effect assessment method of any one of claims 1-6.
10. 10. A computer program product comprising a computer program, characterized in that the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the forest carbon sink weather influence assessment method of any one of claims 1-6.

Description

Forest carbon sink meteorological influence assessment method, system, equipment, medium and product Technical Field The application relates to the field of ecological environment, in particular to a forest carbon sink weather influence assessment method, a system, equipment, a medium and a product. Background Forest is used as the largest carbon reservoir in the land ecological system, and the carbon sink function (namely the capability of absorbing and fixing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere through photosynthesis) is a core link of global carbon circulation and is also a key support for coping with climate change and realizing a double-carbon target. The method can accurately evaluate the dynamic change and influence factors of the forest carbon sink, and has important significance for accurately calculating the carbon sink value, formulating a scientific forest management strategy and improving the climate adaptability. However, the current forest carbon sink influence evaluation technology still has a plurality of limitations, and is difficult to meet the requirements of precision and differentiation in practical application, and the specific expression is as follows: (1) The method has the advantages that the prior method focuses on static evaluation of annual scale and lacks capturing capability of meteorological condition fluctuation of short time scale such as month, season and the like, the forest carbon sink process has obvious seasonal difference, the annual changes of meteorological elements such as air temperature, precipitation and the like can directly influence key carbon circulation processes such as vegetation photosynthesis, respiration, withering and the like, the short-term impact and accumulation effect of the meteorological condition on forest carbon sink can not be reflected by the evaluation of single time scale, and accurate tracking of dynamic change of carbon sink is difficult to support; (2) The climate attribution analysis is insufficient, the forest carbon sink change is the result of the combined action of multiple factors such as meteorological factors, soil conditions, vegetation types, human activities and the like, and the prior art adopts a simple correlation analysis or statistical model, cannot effectively separate independent contributions of the meteorological factors and other interference factors, and cannot accurately quantify the influence rate of the meteorological conditions on the carbon sink change. The evaluation result is difficult to determine the core meteorological driving factors of the carbon sink fluctuation, and deep understanding of a carbon sink response meteorological change mechanism is restricted; (3) The weather service decision is not accurate enough, the existing assessment results mainly comprise carbon summary quantity accounting, and the assessment results lack classification and characterization of weather influence degree, so that the assessment results are difficult to be directly converted into practical operation strategies of forest management, risk early warning and weather adaptation. For example, the carbon sink lifting potential or risk level of different areas under different meteorological conditions cannot be clarified, and management measures such as differentiated forest tending, disaster prevention and reduction and the like are difficult to be guided to be formulated, so that the assessment technology and the business service requirements are disjointed. Disclosure of Invention The application aims to provide a forest carbon sink meteorological influence evaluation method, a system, equipment, a medium and a product, which can quantitatively and dynamically evaluate the carbon sink function of a forest ecological system and the response of the carbon sink function to meteorological condition change. In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides the following solutions: In a first aspect, the application provides a forest carbon sink weather influence assessment method, which comprises the following steps: Estimating an actual forest carbon sink based on the meteorological data and on an individual forest carbon balance model; Estimating a potential forest carbon sink based on a difference between the potential net primary productivity and the soil microbial respiration consumption carbon quantity; based on the actual forest carbon sink quantity and the potential forest carbon sink quantity, establishing a forest carbon sink climate utilization rate estimation model by using a ratio method, and calculating the forest carbon sink climate resource utilization rate; based on the forest carbon sink climate utilization rate, constructing a forest carbon sink meteorological influence evaluation model by adopting a pitch-to-average percentage method, and calculating a forest carbon sink meteorological influence index; And determining the forest carbon sink weather influence grade based on the forest carbo