CN-121998255-A - Industrial domestic agricultural water vulnerability coupling analysis method based on drought response

CN121998255ACN 121998255 ACN121998255 ACN 121998255ACN-121998255-A

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of water vulnerability coupling analysis, in particular to a water vulnerability coupling analysis method for industrial living agriculture based on drought response. The method comprises the steps of constructing a socioeconomic water shortage ratio index to distinguish general drought and extreme drought situations, quantifying industrial, living and agricultural water vulnerabilities by adopting a HARA function, a drinking water difficulty population proportion and an area method and a yield method respectively, analyzing vulnerability response differences under different drought situations, calculating a comprehensive vulnerability index by combining a long-term water structure of an area, and constructing a coupling degree and coordination degree model of water vulnerabilities of multiple departments to realize comprehensive distinguishing of the state of an area water resource system. The method solves the problems of unclear differentiation of drought scenes, inaccurate characterization of water vulnerability of multiple departments and insufficient system coupling analysis, and realizes the refined evaluation and comprehensive judgment of the vulnerability of the regional water resource system under drought conditions.

Inventors

YANG HAIBO
LI WENHUI
CHEN ZIHAN
ZHENG LIUWEI
XU PEIJIE
HUANG SHENGZHI
WANG FEI
QIU SHIKE
DU JUN
ZHANG YU

Assignees

郑州大学
华北水利水电大学
河南省科学院地理研究所
郑州大学综合设计研究院有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20260128

Claims (10)

1. The method for analyzing the vulnerability coupling of industrial domestic agricultural water based on drought response is characterized by comprising the following steps of: step S1, acquiring annual water supply, social economic data and auxiliary meteorological hydrologic data of water departments of regional industry, life and agriculture, decomposing the annual water supply and water demand into a month sequence according to month distribution coefficients, calculating social economic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI based on month supply and demand difference values, and distinguishing general drought and extreme drought situations; Step S2, depicting the benefit of industrial water by adopting a HARA function, and representing the vulnerability of industrial water according to the industrial water loss rate of water shortage amount; s3, estimating agricultural yield loss by adopting an area method and a yield method according to disaster area and yield data, and calculating a loss rate by taking a larger value to represent the vulnerability of agricultural water; s4, adopting linear regression to fit a social economic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI and a three-department vulnerability relation curve, and comparing response differences under general drought and extreme drought situations; And S5, determining weights of three departments based on the long-term water use structure of the area, calculating a comprehensive vulnerability index, calculating coupling degree and co-scheduling according to the comprehensive vulnerability index and the vulnerability of the three departments, and dividing the state of the regional water resource system according to the classification standard.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S1, the socioeconomic water shortage index SEWDRI is calculated based on the month supply and demand difference value, comprising: The method comprises the steps of taking annual water supply as a reference, decomposing the annual water supply according to a monthly distribution coefficient to obtain monthly water supply, estimating annual water demand according to socioeconomic data, decomposing the annual water demand into monthly water demand according to a seasonal mode, calculating a difference value between total monthly water demand and total monthly water supply to obtain a socioeconomic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI, judging extreme drought when the socioeconomic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI reaches a 95 th percentile of a historical sequence, and judging general drought when the rest water shortage conditions are judged.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein characterizing industrial water benefit using the HARA function to characterize industrial water vulnerability based on the water deficit calculation industrial water deficit loss rate comprises: and calculating the utility of industrial water under the normal water supply condition by adopting a HARA function, wherein the HARA function is calculated by combining the normal industrial water demand, the parameter alpha is equal to 1, the parameter gamma is equal to 0, the parameter delta is equal to 0.5 and the water supply quantity, calculating the water shortage amount to be the industrial water demand minus the actual water supply amount, calculating the water shortage loss to be the normal utility minus the actual utility, and calculating the industrial water shortage loss rate to be the water shortage loss divided by the normal industrial output.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the calculating the drinking water vulnerability in terms of the ratio of the average domestic water rating to the actual water supply comprises: The water drinking difficulty population is calculated as the water drinking difficulty population divided by the population, and the water drinking difficulty population is calculated as the water drinking difficulty population multiplied by the population minus the real life water supply.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein estimating agricultural yield loss from the disaster area and yield data using an area method and a yield method, and calculating a loss rate with a larger value, comprises: Calculating the yield loss by adopting an area method to obtain the unit area reference yield multiplied by the dead area addition disaster area multiplied by the yield reduction rate 0.5 plus disaster area multiplied by the yield reduction rate 0.2, calculating the yield loss by adopting the yield method to obtain the unit area reference yield multiplied by the crop sowing area, taking the larger value of the unit area yield loss and the yield loss as the agricultural yield loss, calculating the agricultural yield loss rate to obtain the agricultural yield loss divided by the actual grain yield, and fitting the unit area reference yield according to the annual yield trend.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein fitting the socioeconomic water deficit ratio index SEWDRI to the three-department vulnerability profile using linear regression comprises: The method comprises the steps of taking a socioeconomic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI as an independent variable, performing linear regression fitting by taking industrial water vulnerability as a dependent variable to obtain a general drought function and an extreme drought function, taking a socioeconomic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI as the independent variable, performing linear regression fitting by taking domestic water vulnerability as the dependent variable to obtain the general drought function and the extreme drought function, taking socioeconomic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI as the independent variable, performing linear regression fitting by taking agricultural water vulnerability as the dependent variable to obtain the general drought function and the extreme drought function, and comparing the slope, intercept and fitting goodness of the general drought function and the extreme drought function.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the three department weights based on the regional long-term water usage structure, calculating the composite vulnerability index, comprises: Determining an industrial weight as an average value of the ratio of the industrial water supply amount to the total water supply amount, a living weight as an average value of the ratio of the living water supply amount to the total water supply amount, and an agricultural weight as an average value of the ratio of the agricultural water supply amount to the total water supply amount; the comprehensive vulnerability index is calculated as the industrial water shortage loss rate multiplied by the industrial weight plus the drinking difficulty population proportion multiplied by the life weight plus the agricultural loss rate multiplied by the agricultural weight.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S5, the calculating the coupling degree and the co-schedule, and dividing the regional water resource system state according to the classification criteria, comprises: Normalizing industrial water vulnerability, domestic water vulnerability and agricultural water vulnerability, calculating a coupling degree which is a combination of normalized industrial water vulnerability, normalized domestic water vulnerability and normalized agricultural water vulnerability functions, calculating a cooperative degree which is a comprehensive vulnerability index multiplied by the coupling degree and multiplied by a coordination coefficient, and dividing a coupling state and a coordination level according to a coupling degree value field and a coordination degree value field.
9. An industrial domestic agricultural water vulnerability coupling analysis system based on drought response for implementing the method of any one of claims 1-8, characterized in that the system comprises: The data acquisition unit is used for acquiring annual water supply, social economic data and auxiliary meteorological hydrologic data of regional industrial, living and agricultural water departments, decomposing the annual water supply and water demand into a month sequence according to month distribution coefficients, and calculating a social economic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI based on month supply and demand difference values so as to distinguish general drought and extreme drought situations; The vulnerability calculating unit is used for describing the benefits of industrial water by adopting a HARA function, representing the vulnerability of the industrial water according to the industrial water shortage loss rate of the water shortage quantity, and representing the vulnerability of the domestic water by calculating the ratio of the rated domestic water to the actual water supply quantity of people; The regression fitting unit is used for fitting a social economic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI and a three-department vulnerability relation curve by adopting linear regression, and comparing response differences under general drought and extreme drought situations; The comprehensive evaluation unit is used for determining the weight of the three departments based on the long-term water use structure of the area, calculating the comprehensive vulnerability index, calculating the coupling degree and the co-scheduling according to the comprehensive vulnerability index and the vulnerability of the three departments, and dividing the state of the regional water resource system according to the classification standard.
10. A computer readable storage medium having instructions stored thereon, which when executed by a processor, implement the method of any of claims 1-8.

Description

Industrial domestic agricultural water vulnerability coupling analysis method based on drought response Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of water vulnerability coupling analysis, in particular to a water vulnerability coupling analysis method for industrial living agriculture based on drought response. Background With the aggravation of global climate change and the continuous improvement of human activity intensity, the occurrence frequency and the influence degree of regional drought events are obviously increased, and the problem of uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is increasingly prominent. Under drought conditions, the water resource supply capacity is reduced, and various water demands such as industrial production, urban resident life, agricultural irrigation and the like show a rigid or stepwise increasing trend, so that regional water resource systems face structural tension and systematic risks. Particularly in areas where industrialization, town and agricultural modernization are developed in parallel, obvious competition relationship and linkage effect exist among industrial water, domestic water and agricultural water, and unbalance of supply and demand occurs in any water subsystem under drought impact, so that the water subsystem can be conducted and amplified through a water resource allocation chain, and adverse effect is generated on the water safety of the whole area. To identify and evaluate the risk characteristics of water resource systems under drought conditions, the concept of vulnerability is gradually introduced in existing research and engineering practice to characterize the sensitivity, exposure and recovery capacity of water systems to drought disturbances. In the prior art, aiming at industrial water vulnerability, domestic water vulnerability or agricultural water vulnerability, an evaluation index system is generally established respectively, and quantitative evaluation is carried out on the evaluation index system by a single system analysis method, so that references are provided for industrial water management or special regulation. However, most of the methods take different water types as independent research objects, neglect the high coupling relation formed by water source structures, water supply engineering, scheduling mechanisms and the like in the actual operation process of industrial, domestic and agricultural water systems, and are difficult to comprehensively reflect the overall operation state of the regional water resource system under drought background. Therefore, an analysis method capable of simultaneously characterizing vulnerability characteristics of industrial water, domestic water and agricultural water and further quantifying coupling relation and coordination level among three types of water systems under drought situations is needed to realize comprehensive judgment of the state of regional water resource systems. The method can perform standardized treatment on different water vulnerability indexes under a unified data processing framework, and reveal the co-evolution characteristics of the multi-water system under drought disturbance conditions based on a system coupling theory and a coordinated development theory, so that scientific, systematic and operable technical support is provided for regional water resource risk assessment, drought early warning and water resource optimal allocation. Disclosure of Invention The invention provides an industrial and domestic water vulnerability coupling analysis method based on drought response, which is used for solving the problems of unclear drought situation distinction, inaccurate water vulnerability characterization of multiple departments and lack of systematic coupling analysis in the prior art, can finely evaluate the vulnerability of a regional water resource system under drought conditions, and provides scientific basis for drought risk early warning and water resource regulation. In a first aspect, the invention provides an industrial domestic agricultural water vulnerability coupling analysis method based on drought response, which comprises the following steps: step S1, acquiring annual water supply, social economic data and auxiliary meteorological hydrologic data of water departments of regional industry, life and agriculture, decomposing the annual water supply and water demand into a month sequence according to month distribution coefficients, calculating social economic water shortage ratio index SEWDRI based on month supply and demand difference values, and distinguishing general drought and extreme drought situations; Step S2, depicting the benefit of industrial water by adopting a HARA function, and representing the vulnerability of industrial water according to the industrial water loss rate of water shortage amount; s3, estimating agricultural yield loss by adopting an area method and a yield method according to disaster area