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CN-121998272-A - Site selection method, device, equipment, medium and product for on-site refuge

CN121998272ACN 121998272 ACN121998272 ACN 121998272ACN-121998272-A

Abstract

The application provides a site selection method, a device, equipment, a medium and a product of an on-site refuge. According to one example of the application, the method can include evaluating accident dynamic risk of the chemical industry park according to risk factors of the chemical industry park, calculating accumulated exposure risk of evacuators reaching different evacuation terminals based on the accident dynamic risk, and iteratively selecting the evacuation terminal with the smallest accumulated exposure risk as an on-site shelter in the chemical industry park by using a genetic algorithm.

Inventors

  • WENG WENGUO
  • HE ZHICHAO

Assignees

  • 清华大学

Dates

Publication Date
20260508
Application Date
20241106

Claims (11)

  1. 1. A method of locating an in situ shelter, the method comprising: according to risk factors of a chemical industry park, evaluating the accident dynamic risk of the chemical industry park; calculating accumulated exposure risks for evacuees to reach different evacuation endpoints based on the accident dynamic risks; and iteratively selecting the evacuation endpoint with the smallest accumulated exposure risk as an on-site shelter in the chemical industry park by using a genetic algorithm.
  2. 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the evaluating the dynamic risk of an incident on the chemical industry park based on risk factors for the chemical industry park comprises: simulating a domino accident of the chemical industry park by using a damage analysis model based on the risk factors; Generating an accident consequence of the domino accident by using a Monte Carlo simulation technique; Calculating the accident occurrence probability of the domino accident by using an event tree model; and determining the accident dynamic risk based on the accident result and the accident occurrence probability.
  3. 3. The method of claim 1, wherein the evacuation endpoint comprises an iterative evacuation endpoint comprising a plurality of hazard sources; based on the accident dynamic risk, calculating the accumulated exposure risk of evacuators reaching different evacuation endpoints, including: Calculating individual risks of each risk source based on accident consequences and accident occurrence probability in the accident dynamic risks; Summing the individual risks of the multiple dangerous sources at each time point to obtain a summation result; And integrating the summation result on an evacuation path of the evacuator reaching the iterative evacuation terminal point to generate the accumulated exposure risk of the iterative evacuation terminal point.
  4. 4. The method of claim 3, wherein the evacuators comprise a plurality of evacuators distributed at a plurality of evacuation origins in the chemical industry park; The method further comprises the steps of: integrating the summation result on the evacuation path from each evacuation starting point to the iterative evacuation terminal point to generate a path exposure risk corresponding to each evacuation starting point; multiplying the number of evacuees at each evacuation starting point by the path exposure risk to obtain a total path exposure risk corresponding to each evacuation starting point; Accumulating the total path exposure risk corresponding to each evacuation starting point to obtain the accumulated exposure risk of the iterative evacuation ending point.
  5. 5. The method of claim 1, wherein iteratively selecting the evacuation endpoint with the smallest cumulative exposure risk as an on-site shelter within the chemical industry park using a genetic algorithm comprises: evaluating the fitness of the different evacuation endpoints by using a fitness function and the accumulated exposure risk; Selecting the evacuation endpoint with high adaptability as a parent based on the fitness of the different evacuation endpoints; Generating offspring based on the parents using a crossover algorithm and a mutation algorithm; and carrying out iterative evaluation, selection, crossover and mutation on the evacuation terminal points in the offspring until a preset cut-off condition is met, and obtaining the evacuation terminal point with the minimum accumulated exposure risk.
  6. 6. The method of claim 5, wherein prior to calculating the fitness of the different evacuation endpoints using the fitness function and the cumulative exposure risk, the method further comprises: and constructing the fitness function according to the maximum value of the accumulated exposure risk of the different evacuation endpoints and the accumulated exposure risk of the different evacuation endpoints.
  7. 7. A method according to claim 3, wherein prior to said calculating individual risk for each hazard source based on accident consequences and accident occurrence probabilities in said dynamic risk of accident, said method further comprises: taking the individual risk of the evacuator at the next path point as the actual cost, wherein the next path point is the next position to be reached by the evacuator in the process of travelling to the iterative evacuation terminal point; based on the accident dynamic risk, taking the estimated exposure risk of the evacuator from the current path point to the iterative evacuation terminal point as estimated cost, wherein the current path point is the current position of the evacuator in the travelling process; Constructing a heuristic function based on the actual cost and the estimated cost; and determining an evacuation path corresponding to the iterative evacuation terminal point by using the heuristic function.
  8. 8. An on-site refuge site selection apparatus, the apparatus comprising: the evaluation module is used for evaluating the accident dynamic risk of the chemical industry park according to the risk factors of the chemical industry park; The calculation module is used for calculating the accumulated exposure risk of evacuators reaching different evacuation endpoints based on the accident dynamic risk; And the iteration module is used for iteratively selecting the evacuation terminal point with the smallest accumulated exposure risk as an on-site shelter in the chemical industry park by using a genetic algorithm.
  9. 9. An electronic device, comprising: A processor; A memory for storing processor-executable instructions; Wherein the processor is configured to implement the method of any of claims 1-7 by executing the executable instructions.
  10. 10. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, implement the method of any of claims 1-7.
  11. 11. A computer program product having stored thereon a computer program/instruction which, when executed by a processor, implements the method according to any of claims 1-7.

Description

Site selection method, device, equipment, medium and product for on-site refuge Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of public safety emergency management, in particular to an on-site refuge site selection method, an on-site refuge site selection device, on-site refuge site selection equipment, on-site refuge medium and on-site refuge products. Background In-situ refuge (Shelter-In-plane, SIP) is widely accepted and adopted by people as an emergency response strategy after an emergency occurs. In-situ refuge is the act of people seeking security in an occupied building after an incident has occurred. At present, governments and related organizations all play the role of on-site refuge guidance opinion or laws and regulations, and guide people to adopt an on-site refuge emergency strategy instead of blind escape or evacuation when natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and the like or accident disasters such as toxic gas leakage, nuclear accidents and the like occur. However, even if the frequency, hazard and exposure of the operators in chemical industry face fire and explosion toxin multi-disaster accidents are far higher than those of the common people, the on-site refuge is not a widely accepted and adopted accident emergency strategy, and how to plan the safest on-site refuge in advance is a problem to be solved. Disclosure of Invention In order to overcome the problems in the related art, the application provides an on-site refuge site selection method, an on-site refuge site selection device, on-site refuge site selection equipment, on-site refuge medium and on-site refuge products. According to a first aspect of any embodiment of the present application, there is provided a method of site selection of an in situ shelter, the method comprising: according to risk factors of a chemical industry park, evaluating the accident dynamic risk of the chemical industry park; calculating accumulated exposure risks for evacuees to reach different evacuation endpoints based on the accident dynamic risks; and iteratively selecting the evacuation endpoint with the smallest accumulated exposure risk as an on-site shelter in the chemical industry park by using a genetic algorithm. According to a second aspect of any embodiment of the present application there is provided an in situ refuge site selection apparatus, the apparatus comprising: the evaluation module is used for evaluating the accident dynamic risk of the chemical industry park according to the risk factors of the chemical industry park; The calculation module is used for calculating the accumulated exposure risk of evacuators reaching different evacuation endpoints based on the accident dynamic risk; And the iteration module is used for iteratively selecting the evacuation terminal point with the smallest accumulated exposure risk as an on-site shelter in the chemical industry park by using a genetic algorithm. According to a third aspect of any embodiment of the present application, there is provided an electronic device comprising: A processor; A memory for storing processor-executable instructions; Wherein the processor implements the method described in any of the embodiments of the application by executing the executable instructions. According to a fourth aspect of any of the embodiments of the present application there is provided a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions which when executed by a processor implement a method as described in any of the embodiments of the present application described above. According to a fifth aspect of any of the embodiments of the present application there is provided a computer program product having stored thereon a computer program/instruction which when executed by a processor implements a method as described in any of the embodiments of the present application described above. The technical scheme provided by the application can comprise the following beneficial effects: According to the embodiment, the accident dynamic risk of the chemical industry park is evaluated according to the risk factors of the chemical industry park, the rationality of the subsequent site refuge site selection can be improved, the accumulated exposure risk of evacuees reaching different evacuation terminals is calculated based on the accident dynamic risk, the evacuation terminal with the smallest accumulated exposure risk is iteratively selected by using a genetic algorithm to serve as the site refuge site in the chemical industry park, the evacuee is subjected to the smallest accumulated exposure risk as an optimization target, and the safest site refuge site is selected in the chemical industry park, so that the personal safety of the evacuee is further ensured. It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the application as claimed. Drawin