CN-121998458-A - Correction method and device for earthquake disaster personnel casualty assessment model and storage medium

CN121998458ACN 121998458 ACN121998458 ACN 121998458ACN-121998458-A

Abstract

The application discloses a correction method and device of an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model and a storage medium, and relates to the technical field of disaster emergency management. By constructing the emergency readiness index and the emergency response condition index as nonlinear attenuation correction factors, the defects of insufficient levels of manual correction, automation and intellectualization of the traditional evaluation model depending on expert experience are overcome. The coupling correction formula takes a nonlinear attenuation correction factor as a core, and the cooperative attenuation effect of emergency preparation and emergency response is accurately reflected through independent double-exponential multiplication coupling. And a closed-loop optimization mechanism is used for providing highly reliable data support for emergency command. The correction process not only outputs the casualties predicted value, but also quantitatively diagnoses the regional toughness by generating an emergency preparation capability index and an emergency response condition index, thereby being capable of pertinently optimizing an emergency plan, adjusting rescue force deployment or strengthening science popularization exercise and directly serving the purposes of active prevention and control and quick recovery of the toughness city.

Inventors

XU JUAN
Fan Kaihong
ZHANG YI
ZHAO XUEHUI
ZHOU ZHIHUA
LIU YANG

Assignees

四川省地震应急服务中心

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20260409

Claims (10)

1. A correction method of an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model is characterized by comprising the following steps: acquiring emergency preparation capability index data and emergency response condition index data of a correction area; Constructing an emergency preparation capability index and an emergency response condition index based on the emergency preparation capability index data and the emergency response condition index data, and constructing a coupling correction formula taking the emergency preparation capability index and the emergency response condition index as nonlinear attenuation correction factors; Based on an initial evaluation value output by an earthquake disaster personnel casualty evaluation model based on building vulnerability, calculating by combining the emergency preparation capacity index, the emergency response condition index and the coupling correction formula to obtain a corrected target evaluation value; Performing deviation verification on the corrected target evaluation value based on the historical earthquake casualty data of the correction area or the adjacent similar areas of the correction area; And if the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is greater than or equal to a preset deviation value, adjusting the index weights of the emergency preparation capacity index and the emergency response condition index, reconstructing the coupling correction formula, and calculating the target evaluation value again until the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is smaller than the preset deviation value.
2. The method for correcting an earthquake disaster personnel casualty assessment model according to claim 1, wherein the step of acquiring emergency readiness index data and emergency response condition index data of a correction area comprises the steps of: Constructing the emergency preparation capacity index data based on the personnel drilling index parameter, the emergency plan index parameter, the early warning terminal index parameter and the seismic science popularization propaganda index parameter of the correction area; and constructing the emergency response condition index data based on the emergency response system index parameter, the rescue strength index parameter and the rescue material index parameter of the correction area.
3. The method for correcting an earthquake disaster recovery assessment model according to claim 2, wherein constructing an emergency readiness index and an emergency response situation index based on the emergency readiness index data and the emergency response situation index data comprises: Taking the ratio of the frequency of carrying out annual earthquake emergency exercises and the number of participants in the correction area as the personnel exercise index parameter; taking the perfection, updating frequency and operability score of the earthquake emergency plan of the correction area as index parameters of the emergency plan; taking the deployment number, coverage density and operation normal rate of the earthquake early warning terminals in the correction area as index parameters of the early warning terminals; taking the development frequency, coverage and coverage range of the seismic science popularization propaganda of the correction area as the seismic science popularization propaganda index parameters; the personnel drilling index parameter, the emergency plan index parameter, the early warning terminal index parameter and the earthquake science popularization propaganda index parameter are weighted and summed to obtain the emergency preparation capacity index; Taking the response speed and the data transmission delay of the emergency response system of the correction area as index parameters of the emergency response system; Taking the configuration quantity of specialized rescue teams in the correction area, the evidence-holding on-duty rate of rescue workers, the equipment condition of rescue equipment and the cross-area rescue linkage capacity as the rescue strength index parameters; Taking the reserve quantity, reserve layout, allocation efficiency and replenishment capacity of the rescue materials in the correction area as the rescue material index parameters; And carrying out weighted summation on the index parameters of the emergency response system, the index parameters of the rescue strength and the index parameters of the rescue materials to obtain the emergency response condition index.
4. The method for correcting an earthquake disaster recovery estimating model according to claim 1, wherein said constructing a coupling correction formula using said emergency readiness index and said emergency response condition index as nonlinear attenuation correction factors comprises: the method comprises the steps that the target evaluation value after correction is not larger than the initial evaluation value, the casualty descending speed is faster when the emergency capacity is increased from a low level to a medium level, the casualty descending speed is gradually gentle when the emergency capacity is close to saturation, and the principle of mathematical calibration is adopted as a constraint condition for constructing the coupling correction formula; Defining a first attenuation factor in an exponential form for the emergency readiness index, and defining a second attenuation factor in an exponential form for the emergency response situation index, wherein the first attenuation factor and the second attenuation factor are independent nonlinear attenuation factors; Based on an initial evaluation value of an earthquake disaster casualty evaluation model, performing multiplicative coupling on the first attenuation factor and the second attenuation factor to obtain an initial coupling correction formula; The initial coupling correction formula satisfies: C=C 0 ×e^(-αP)×e^(-βR); Wherein, C is the number of corrected and estimated casualties, C 0 is the initial estimated value, P is the emergency readiness index, R is the emergency response condition index, e (-alpha P) is a first attenuation factor, e (-beta R) is a second attenuation factor, alpha is a first weight coefficient of the first attenuation factor, beta is a second weight coefficient of the second attenuation factor, alpha >0 and beta >0.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the constructing a coupling correction formula using the emergency readiness index and the emergency response condition index as nonlinear attenuation correction factors, further comprises the step of fitting and calibrating the first weight coefficient and the second weight coefficient by using a least square method, and the step comprises: Collecting multiple groups of historical earthquake casualties data, wherein each group of the historical earthquake casualties data comprises an initial evaluation value, an emergency preparation capacity index, an emergency response condition index and a correction evaluation casualties number of the earthquake disaster personnel casualties evaluation model; linearizing the initial coupling correction formula by taking natural logarithms to obtain a linear fitting model; Constructing a least square objective function by taking the sum of squares of residuals of fitting values and actual values of the linear fitting model as a target, and substituting the historical seismic casualties data into the least square objective function; Respectively solving partial derivatives of the first weight coefficient and the second weight coefficient for the least square objective function, enabling the partial derivatives to be equal to zero, establishing a target equation set, and solving to obtain optimal estimated values of the first weight coefficient and the second weight coefficient; Substituting the calibrated first weight coefficient and the second weight coefficient into the initial coupling correction formula, and verifying fitting accuracy through historical seismic casualty data; If the fitting precision meets the preset precision requirement and the first weight coefficient and the second weight coefficient are both larger than zero, determining a coupling correction formula based on the optimal estimated value; And if the fitting precision does not meet the preset precision requirement, returning to re-acquire the historical seismic casualty data or adjusting the fitting method until the fitting precision of the initial coupling correction formula meets the precision requirement.
6. The method for modifying an earthquake disaster recovery assessment model as set forth in claim 5, wherein the calculating by combining the emergency readiness index, the emergency response condition index, and the coupling modification formula to obtain a modified target assessment value comprises: Substituting the constructed emergency preparation capability index, the emergency response condition index and the calibrated coupling correction formula into the initial evaluation value, obtaining the corrected target evaluation value through multiplication coupling operation, and keeping the data format unified and the calculation precision in the operation process.
7. The method for correcting an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model according to claim 1, wherein the performing bias verification on the corrected target assessment value based on historical earthquake casualty data of the correction region or a similar region adjacent to the correction region comprises: Judging whether the correction area contains historical earthquake casualty data matched with the current evaluation environment; If the correction area contains the historical earthquake casualty data matched with the current evaluation environment, the historical earthquake casualty data of the correction area is selected as reference data; if the correction area does not contain the historical earthquake casualty data matched with the current evaluation environment, selecting the historical earthquake casualty data of the adjacent similar areas similar to the geographical environment, population scale and economic level of the correction area; And combining the seismic disaster grade adjustment verification standard, and calculating the deviation degree of the target evaluation value and the reference data by adopting a relative deviation formula, wherein the relative deviation formula is the absolute value of the difference value between the target evaluation value and the reference data divided by the reference data.
8. The method according to claim 1, wherein if the deviation of the target evaluation value from the reference data is greater than or equal to a preset deviation value, adjusting the index weights of the emergency readiness index and the emergency response condition index, reconstructing the coupling correction formula, and performing calculation of the target evaluation value again until the deviation of the target evaluation value from the reference data is less than the preset deviation value, comprises: if the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is greater than or equal to a preset deviation value, determining a weight adjustment strategy by combining the deviation direction, the deviation amplitude and the corrected region characteristics; based on the adjusted index weight, recalculating the emergency preparation capacity index and the emergency response situation index according to a preset quantization weighting rule, and synchronously updating the coupling correction formula; Substituting the reconstructed emergency readiness index, the emergency response condition index and the updated coupling correction formula into the initial evaluation value, and recalculating the target evaluation value; and repeatedly executing deviation verification on the newly generated target evaluation value until the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is smaller than the preset deviation value.
9. A correction device for an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model, comprising: The acquisition module is used for acquiring emergency preparation capability index data and emergency response condition index data of the correction area; The construction module is used for constructing an emergency preparation capacity index and an emergency response condition index based on the emergency preparation capacity index data and the emergency response condition index data, and constructing a coupling correction formula taking the emergency preparation capacity index and the emergency response condition index as nonlinear attenuation correction factors; The calculation module is used for calculating by combining the emergency preparation capacity index, the emergency response condition index and the coupling correction formula on the basis of an initial evaluation value output by the earthquake disaster casualty evaluation model based on building vulnerability to obtain a corrected target evaluation value; The verification module is used for carrying out deviation verification on the corrected target evaluation value based on the historical earthquake casualties data of the correction area or the adjacent similar areas of the correction area; and the adjusting module is used for adjusting the index weights of the emergency preparation capacity index and the emergency response condition index if the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is larger than or equal to a preset deviation value, reconstructing the coupling correction formula and calculating the target evaluation value again until the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is smaller than the preset deviation value.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer-readable storage medium has stored therein a program that can be loaded by a processor and that executes the correction method of the earthquake disaster casualty assessment model according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

Description

Correction method and device for earthquake disaster personnel casualty assessment model and storage medium Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of disaster emergency management, in particular to a correction method and device of an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model and a storage medium. Background As a natural disaster with strong burst, large destructive power and wide influence range, the earthquake disaster is extremely easy to cause a large amount of casualties and huge property loss, and the accurate casualties assessment is a core premise of earthquake emergency command, rescue resource allocation and disaster loss accounting, and has important significance for improving earthquake emergency treatment efficiency and reducing casualties. The traditional earthquake disaster casualties assessment model is mainly based on building vulnerability to carry out assessment, and has the core logic that the damage degree of the building is determined by analyzing the damage effect of earthquake parameters on different types of buildings, and the casualties quantity is quantitatively calculated by combining the population density of the area where the building is located. The method only takes the damage condition and population density of the building as core influencing factors, and can realize preliminary estimation of casualties, but the influence of regional emergency treatment capacity in an actual scene is not considered, so that the estimation result has larger deviation from the actual casualties. Meanwhile, the method is not automatic and intelligent, the evaluation result is required to be checked and corrected manually by an expert, the expert experience is highly dependent, and the requirements of emergency command on data timeliness, accuracy and reliability are difficult to meet. Along with popularization of the flexible urban construction concept, the core of urban disaster prevention and control is turned from passive response to active prevention and control and quick response, and the traditional earthquake disaster casualties assessment model and method do not consider the influence of a real emergency environment (emergency preparation and emergency response) on casualties, so that the rationality of the earthquake disaster casualties assessment model is insufficient, the practicability of the implementation method is limited, the deviation between the assessment result and the actual casualties is large, and the emergency decision optimization of a flexible city is difficult to support, so that the requirements of the flexible city on the casualties assessment accuracy and comprehensiveness cannot be met. Disclosure of Invention The application aims to provide a correction method, a correction device and a storage medium of an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model, which are used for solving the problem that the traditional earthquake disaster assessment result has larger deviation from the actual casualty situation, so that the requirement of a ductile city emergency decision is difficult to meet. In order to achieve the above object, a first aspect of the present application provides a method for correcting an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model, comprising: acquiring emergency preparation capability index data and emergency response condition index data of a correction area; Constructing an emergency preparation capability index and an emergency response condition index based on the emergency preparation capability index data and the emergency response condition index data, and constructing a coupling correction formula taking the emergency preparation capability index and the emergency response condition index as nonlinear attenuation correction factors; Based on an initial evaluation value output by an earthquake disaster personnel casualty evaluation model based on building vulnerability, calculating by combining the emergency preparation capacity index, the emergency response condition index and the coupling correction formula to obtain a corrected target evaluation value; Performing deviation verification on the corrected target evaluation value based on the historical earthquake casualty data of the correction area or the adjacent similar areas of the correction area; And if the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is greater than or equal to a preset deviation value, adjusting the index weights of the emergency preparation capacity index and the emergency response condition index, reconstructing the coupling correction formula, and calculating the target evaluation value again until the deviation between the target evaluation value and the reference data is smaller than the preset deviation value. The second aspect of the present application provides a correction device for an earthquake disaster casualty assessment model, comprising: The acquisition module is used for acquiring emergency prepa