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CN-121998719-A - Green technology premium calculation and industrial suitability evaluation method under double-carbon target

CN121998719ACN 121998719 ACN121998719 ACN 121998719ACN-121998719-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a green technology premium measurement and industrial suitability evaluation method under a double-carbon target, and relates to the technical field of green technology evaluation and double-carbon management. The method comprises the steps of firstly constructing a multidimensional dynamic basic database covering technical attributes, market transactions, double-carbon policies and industrial characteristics, then taking a modified market comparison method as a core, introducing a double-carbon policy modification coefficient and a carbon cost internalization coefficient to establish a premium measurement model, combining actual carbon emission reduction deviation to realize dynamic modification, then constructing a hierarchical evaluation index system of carbon adaptation, economic adaptation and technical adaptation, establishing a premium-suitability coupling evaluation mechanism through an entropy weight-TOPSIS method and a coupling coordination model, and outputting adaptation level, a premium reasonable interval and optimization suggestions. The invention solves the defect that the traditional method ignores the double-carbon element, calculates and evaluates in a disjoint way, improves the accuracy of the overflow price calculation and the scientificity of the suitability evaluation, and can provide accurate decision support for enterprise technical selection and government policy formulation.

Inventors

  • WANG WEISI
  • LUO SHAOLAN
  • HE YANZHEN
  • LI JIAWEN

Assignees

  • 厦门海洋职业技术学院

Dates

Publication Date
20260508
Application Date
20251229

Claims (10)

  1. 1. The green technology premium calculation and industry suitability evaluation method under the double-carbon target is characterized by comprising the following steps: Step 1, constructing a green technology multidimensional basic database, wherein the basic database comprises technical attribute data, market transaction data, double-carbon policy data and industrial characteristic data, and the technical attribute data comprises carbon emission reduction potential coefficients, technology maturity levels and life cycle cost of the green technology; The market trading data comprises similar traditional technology trading prices, green technology trading case prices and carbon trading market real-time prices; the dual-carbon policy data comprises a zoned carbon quota allocation rule, a green technology subsidy policy and a carbon tax collection standard; The industrial characteristic data comprises an industrial carbon emission base, a unit GDP carbon strength and an industrial energy consumption structure; Step 2, based on the basic database, establishing a green technology overflow rate measuring and calculating model, wherein the model takes a corrected market comparison method as a core, introduces a two-carbon policy correction coefficient and a carbon cost internalization coefficient, and calculates the green technology overflow rate through the following formula: P= [ (P-P)/P ] ×α×β, where P is a green technology overflow rate, P is a green technology transaction price, P is a similar traditional technology transaction price, α is a two-carbon policy correction coefficient, and β is a carbon cost internalization coefficient; The alpha is obtained through weighting calculation of a policy dynamics quantization index and a policy aging weight, and the beta is determined based on the proportion of the product of the technical carbon emission reduction amount and the carbon transaction price to the technical total cost; Step 3, constructing an industrial suitability evaluation index system, wherein the index system comprises a carbon adaptation dimension, an economic adaptation dimension and a technical adaptation dimension, and the carbon adaptation dimension comprises an industrial carbon emission reduction gap coverage rate and a carbon emission reduction benefit index of unit yield value; the economic adaptation dimension comprises a technical investment recovery period and a premium bearing capacity index; the technology adaptation dimension comprises technology and industry technology absorption capacity indexes, wherein the technology adaptation dimension comprises technology and industry existing technology matching degree; step 4, establishing a premium-suitability coupling evaluation model, taking the green technology premium rate obtained in the step 2 as one of input variables, calculating an industrial suitability comprehensive score by adopting an entropy weight-TOPSIS method in combination with a normalization result of the evaluation index system, and calculating a coupling coordination grade of a premium level and the suitability score through the coupling coordination degree model; And 5, outputting an adaptability evaluation result and a reasonable overflow price interval of the green technology in the target industry based on the coupling coordination level, wherein the evaluation result comprises the adaptation level, key constraint factors and optimization suggestions.
  2. 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the base database in step 1 further comprises a dynamic update module, the dynamic update module captures carbon trade market price, policy file update information and industrial carbon emission statistics in real time by web crawler technology, and performs rolling update on the historical data based on a sliding window algorithm, wherein an update period is set to 1-7 days according to data types, carbon trade price data is updated in real time, policy data is updated within 24 hours after policy release, and industrial carbon emission data is updated once a month.
  3. 3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the two-carbon policy correction factor α in step 2 is as follows: α=ω×α+ω×α+ω×α, where ω, ω, ω are the patch policy weight, the carbon quota policy weight, and the carbon tax policy weight, determining by an analytic hierarchy process; alpha is a patch intensity coefficient which is equal to the ratio of unit technical patch amount to technical transaction price, alpha is a quota excitation coefficient which is calculated based on the matching degree of industrial carbon quota gap and technical carbon emission reduction, and alpha is a carbon tax reduction coefficient which is determined according to the proportion of the reduced carbon tax expenditure after technical application to technical investment.
  4. 4. The method of claim 1, wherein the industry suitability evaluation index system in the step 3 adopts a layered structure and comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, wherein the target layer is green technology industry suitability comprehensive evaluation, the criterion layer comprises a carbon adaptation dimension, an economic adaptation dimension and a technology adaptation dimension, weights of the criterion layer are calculated through an entropy weight method, the index layer comprises 8-12 specific indexes, the carbon adaptation dimension comprises industrial carbon emission reduction gap coverage rate, technology carbon emission reduction contribution degree and unit yield carbon emission reduction cost, the economic adaptation dimension comprises technology investment recovery period, overflow price bearing capacity and investment income ratio, and the technology adaptation dimension comprises technology matching degree, technology absorption capacity, equipment compatibility and technology iteration suitability.
  5. 5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the burr-suitability coupling evaluation model in step 4 comprises two links of coupling degree calculation and coordination degree calculation, wherein the coupling degree C is calculated by the following formula: C={[P×S]/[(P+S)/2]}; Wherein S is an industry suitability comprehensive score, k is an adjustment coefficient, the value range is 2-5, the coordination schedule D is calculated by the following formula, D= v (C x T), T = a x P + b x S, wherein T is the overflow price-suitability comprehensive development level, a and b are weights of the overflow price rate and the suitability score respectively, the determination is based on policy guidance under a double-carbon target, the value of a is 0.4-0.5 when the political strategy is focused on carbon emission reduction, and the value of a is 0.3-0.4 when the economic benefit is focused on.
  6. 6. The method of claim 1, wherein step 2 further comprises a step of dynamically correcting the green technology premium by correcting the premium in real time based on a deviation ratio of an actual carbon reduction amount to an expected carbon reduction amount after the technology application, wherein the correction formula is P' =p× (1+γ), wherein γ is a deviation correction coefficient, γ= (E-E)/E, E is an actual carbon reduction amount, E is an expected carbon reduction amount, and when an absolute value of γ exceeds a preset threshold, a recalibration of the base database is triggered.
  7. 7. The method of claim 1, wherein the technical attribute data in step 1 further comprises green technical carbon footprint data, wherein the carbon footprint data is obtained by a lifecycle assessment method, and wherein the industry characteristic data further comprises industry green technical application base indicators including existing green technical popularity, technical improvement investment capability and professional technical talent reserves.
  8. 8. The method of claim 3, wherein when the analytic hierarchy process determines the policy weight, a two-carbon target achievement progress feedback mechanism is introduced, wherein when the regional carbon emission reduction progress is not expected, the carbon quota policy weight omega and the carbon tax policy weight omega are increased, the patch policy weight omega is reduced, and when the carbon emission reduction progress is over-completed, the patch policy weight omega is increased, the carbon quota policy weight omega and the carbon tax policy weight omega are reduced, and the weight adjustment range is 5% -15%.
  9. 9. The method of claim 4, wherein the normalization of each index in the index layer is performed by using a section mapping method, a formula X ' = (X-X)/(X-X) is used for positive indexes, a formula X ' = (X-X)/(X-X) is used for negative indexes, wherein X is an original index value, X ' is a normalized value, X, X is an industry maximum value and a minimum value of the index respectively, and the abnormal value is removed by using a 3 sigma rule for the index with abnormal extremum.
  10. 10. The method of claim 5, wherein the coupling coordination class is divided into 5 classes: good coupling coordination when D is more than or equal to 0.8, good coupling coordination when D is more than or equal to 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, moderate coupling coordination when D is more than or equal to 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, mild coupling coordination when D is more than or equal to 0.2 and slight coupling coordination when D is less than or equal to 0.4, and maladjustment when D is less than or equal to 0.2; And outputting differential suggestions for different grades, namely expanding the technical popularization scale by using the high-quality coupling coordination grade suggestion, and rescreening the adaptive technology or optimizing the technical parameters by using the imbalance grade suggestion.

Description

Green technology premium calculation and industrial suitability evaluation method under double-carbon target Technical Field The invention belongs to the technical field of green technology assessment and double-carbon management, and particularly relates to a green technology premium measurement and industrial suitability evaluation method under a double-carbon target. Background The dual-carbon target promotes the rapid development of the green technology, and the green technology premium and the industrial suitability evaluation formed by the carbon emission reduction advantage are core preconditions of industrial application. The prior art has the obvious defects that: 1. The measurement dimension is single, namely, the measurement dimension is mostly based on the comparison of market transaction data, a double-carbon policy (subsidy, carbon quota and the like) and carbon emission reduction value are not integrated, and as the patent CN114565432A only considers research and development cost and market income, the measurement deviation is larger; 2. The evaluation and measurement are disjoint, namely the industrial suitability evaluation focuses on the technical feasibility, and the coordination of the overflow price bearing capacity and the carbon emission reduction requirement is ignored, for example, the patent CN115081897B does not relate to overflow price factors, so that the technology is advanced but the landing is difficult; 3. The dynamic performance is insufficient, and the timeliness and the accuracy are insufficient due to the lack of a self-adaptive mechanism which is effective for the adjustment of the double-carbon policy, the fluctuation of the carbon market and the application of the technology. In summary, a dynamic method for realizing the coordinated evaluation of the premium and the suitability by fusing the dual-carbon core elements is needed, and the pain point of the prior art is solved. Disclosure of Invention In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a green technology overflow price measuring and calculating and industry suitability evaluating method under a double-carbon target, which solves the technical problems that the existing green technology overflow price measuring and calculating is not integrated with a double-carbon policy and carbon emission reduction value, the industry suitability evaluating and overflow price level is disjointed and a dynamic self-adapting mechanism is lacked. The green technology premium calculation and industry suitability evaluation method under the double-carbon target comprises the following steps: Step 1, constructing a green technology multidimensional basic database, wherein the basic database comprises technical attribute data, market transaction data, double-carbon policy data and industrial characteristic data, and the technical attribute data comprises carbon emission reduction potential coefficients, technology maturity levels and life cycle cost of the green technology; The market trading data comprises similar traditional technology trading prices, green technology trading case prices and carbon trading market real-time prices; the dual-carbon policy data comprises a zoned carbon quota allocation rule, a green technology subsidy policy and a carbon tax collection standard; The industrial characteristic data comprises an industrial carbon emission base, a unit GDP carbon strength and an industrial energy consumption structure; Step 2, based on the basic database, establishing a green technology overflow rate measuring and calculating model, wherein the model takes a corrected market comparison method as a core, introduces a two-carbon policy correction coefficient and a carbon cost internalization coefficient, and calculates the green technology overflow rate through the following formula: P= [ (P-P)/P ] ×α×β, where P is a green technology overflow rate, P is a green technology transaction price, P is a similar traditional technology transaction price, α is a two-carbon policy correction coefficient, and β is a carbon cost internalization coefficient; The alpha is obtained through weighting calculation of a policy dynamics quantization index and a policy aging weight, and the beta is determined based on the proportion of the product of the technical carbon emission reduction amount and the carbon transaction price to the technical total cost; Step 3, constructing an industrial suitability evaluation index system, wherein the index system comprises a carbon adaptation dimension, an economic adaptation dimension and a technical adaptation dimension, and the carbon adaptation dimension comprises an industrial carbon emission reduction gap coverage rate and a carbon emission reduction benefit index of unit yield value; the economic adaptation dimension comprises a technical investment recovery period and a premium bearing capacity index; the technology adaptation dimension comprises technology and industry techno