CN-122000859-A - Power generation power prediction system and method suitable for distributed photovoltaic power station

CN122000859ACN 122000859 ACN122000859 ACN 122000859ACN-122000859-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a power generation power prediction system and a method suitable for a distributed photovoltaic power station, and relates to the technical field of power generation power prediction, wherein the system comprises a weather forecast server and a distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction device comprising a data acquisition module, a data management module, a weather forecast data analysis module and a power generation power prediction module; the method comprises the steps of acquiring power generation data and weather forecast data of a distributed photovoltaic power station from a photovoltaic local monitoring device or a SCADA system, receiving and carrying out precision analysis on the weather forecast data from a weather forecast server and the processed weather forecast data from a data management module to determine weather forecast data with high precision, and carrying out ultra-short-term, short-term and medium-term power generation power prediction on the distributed photovoltaic power station based on the weather forecast data with high precision and the processed power generation data output by the data management module. The invention can realize the prediction of the ultra-short-term, short-term and medium-term generation power.

Inventors

ZHONG HEXIANG
LIAO PEIZHI
HE QIXIAO
WANG DAN
JIANG SHUAI
FU ZHIHUI

Assignees

深圳市中电软件有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20251203

Claims (10)

1. The power generation power prediction system suitable for the distributed photovoltaic power station is characterized by comprising a weather forecast server and a distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction device comprising a data acquisition module, a data management module, a weather forecast data analysis module and a power generation power prediction module; the weather forecast server is used for acquiring weather forecast data from a plurality of weather forecast websites; The data acquisition module is used for acquiring power generation data and weather forecast data of the distributed photovoltaic power station from a photovoltaic local monitoring device or an SCADA system; The data management module is used for carrying out anomaly detection and processing on the power generation data and the meteorological forecast data of the distributed photovoltaic power station, which are acquired by the data acquisition module; the weather forecast data analysis module is used for receiving and carrying out precision analysis on the weather forecast data from the weather forecast server and the processed weather forecast data from the data management module, and determining weather forecast data with high precision; The power generation power prediction module is used for predicting the power generation power of the distributed photovoltaic power station in ultra-short term, short term and medium term based on the weather forecast data with high precision and the processed power generation data output by the data management module.
2. The power generation power prediction system for a distributed photovoltaic power plant according to claim 1, wherein the distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction device is disposed in a safe II area, and the weather forecast server is disposed in an internet large area, and the system further comprises: The system comprises a Beidou time correction device, a photovoltaic local monitoring device and a regional I station control switch, wherein the Beidou time correction device, the photovoltaic local monitoring device and the first firewall are arranged in a safe II region, the regional II switch is arranged in the safe II region, the distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction device is connected with the regional II region, the regional II switch is connected with a reverse isolation device of an Internet large region, and the second firewall is arranged in the Internet large region; The Beidou time correction device is used for providing time synchronization service for the equipment in the safety I area; the system comprises a distributed photovoltaic power station, a photovoltaic local monitoring device, a regional I exchange, a regional II exchange, a weather forecast server and a reverse isolation device, wherein the photovoltaic local monitoring device is used for monitoring the running state of the distributed photovoltaic power station and collecting real-time power generation data; The weather forecast data analysis module is specifically used for receiving and carrying out precision analysis on the weather forecast data from the reverse isolation device and the processed weather forecast data from the data management module, and determining weather forecast data with high precision.
3. The power generation prediction system for a distributed photovoltaic power plant according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction device further comprises a prediction data forwarding module, and the prediction data forwarding module is used for converting the ultra-short-term, short-term and medium-term power generation power prediction data generated by the power generation power prediction module into a data format required by a power grid dispatching center, and uploading the data to a prediction master station through a power dedicated channel.
4. The power generation power prediction system for the distributed photovoltaic power plant according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the power generation power prediction device further comprises an application function module, and the application function module is used for displaying information of the distributed photovoltaic power plant, real-time power generation data and power generation prediction trend, real-time weather data and weather prediction situation and prediction precision index, and automatically generating a prediction report.
5. The power generation power prediction system applicable to the distributed photovoltaic power station according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction device further comprises a database module, and the database module is used for storing the ultra-short-term, short-term and medium-term power generation power prediction results generated by the power generation power prediction module and supporting retrospective query on historical data.
6. The power generation power prediction system suitable for the distributed photovoltaic power station according to claim 1 or 2, further comprising a photovoltaic power control device, wherein the photovoltaic power control device is arranged in the safe I area, a first firewall is connected with the photovoltaic power control device, the I area station control switch is connected with the photovoltaic power control device, and the photovoltaic power control device is used for collecting real-time power generation data and running states of each power generation unit of the distributed photovoltaic power station and intelligently and flexibly regulating and controlling the power generation power of the distributed photovoltaic power station based on the predicted data and the change trend of the power generation power prediction module.
7. The power generation prediction system for a distributed photovoltaic power plant according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the data management module adopts a statistical method and business logic to screen out abnormal values in real-time power generation data and meteorological data of the distributed photovoltaic power plant, and further analyzes the abnormal values to remove abnormal values and noise and replace the abnormal values with reasonable values.
8. A method for predicting the generated power of a distributed photovoltaic power station is characterized in that, a generated power prediction system for a distributed photovoltaic power plant as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, the method comprising: Acquiring weather forecast data from a plurality of weather forecast websites through the weather forecast server; acquiring power generation data and weather forecast data of the distributed photovoltaic power station from a photovoltaic local monitoring device or an SCADA system through a data acquisition module; The data management module is used for carrying out anomaly detection and processing on the power generation data and the meteorological forecast data of the distributed photovoltaic power station, which are acquired by the data acquisition module; the method comprises the steps of receiving and carrying out precision analysis on weather forecast data from a weather forecast server and processed weather forecast data from a data management module through a weather forecast data analysis module, and determining weather forecast data with high precision; And the power generation power prediction module predicts the power generation power of the distributed photovoltaic power station in ultra-short term, short term and medium term based on the weather forecast data with high precision and the processed power generation data output by the data management module.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing a method of predicting generated power of a distributed photovoltaic power plant as claimed in claim 8 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium has stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements a method for predicting the generated power of a distributed photovoltaic power plant according to claim 8.

Description

Power generation power prediction system and method suitable for distributed photovoltaic power station Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of power generation power prediction, in particular to a power generation power prediction system and method suitable for a distributed photovoltaic power station. Background By 2025, the capacity of the distributed photovoltaic installation is more than two thirds of the capacity of the total installation, and has become a main source of electricity. In particular, in some regional grids, power output exceeding 70% of the afternoon time comes from distributed photovoltaic power generation. The change of the power structure enables the power system to be converted into a charge source double random mode from a traditional source follow-up mode, and the fluctuation of the distributed photovoltaic output directly affects the full-power-saving balance. The power grid dispatching department needs to accurately grasp the distributed photovoltaic output curve 4 to 16 hours in advance, otherwise, a large amount of rotation reserve capacity must be reserved, and the social energy cost is obviously increased. Currently, distributed photovoltaic power plant output prediction mainly depends on a basic monitoring system and a single meteorological data source. The existing prediction system generally adopts a simple data processing method and a limited weather forecast source, acquires power generation data through a photovoltaic monitoring system or an SCADA system, and performs power prediction by combining a single weather forecast source. The system can realize basic power generation data acquisition and short-term prediction functions, and part of the system also has data uploading capability, so that the most basic power station monitoring requirement is met. However, the prior art has various defects, the observability of the distributed photovoltaic power station is low, the 10 kilovolt distributed photovoltaic only uploads 15 minutes of real-time power generation data and simple prediction data, and the prediction capability of a longer time scale is lacking. The uncertainty of the meteorological conditions is high, and the forecasting accuracy is limited due to the fact that data are acquired from a single meteorological forecasting source and a multisource data comparison analysis mechanism is lacked. The communication quality is poor, and the quality and the integrity of the power generation data are affected due to factors such as remote geographical environment, low compatibility of communication devices, ageing of sensors, insufficient professional knowledge of operation and maintenance staff and the like. The existing system has weak capability in the aspect of data management, lacks an effective abnormality detection and processing mechanism, cannot perform precision analysis and automatic optimization on a plurality of weather forecast sources, and is difficult to realize high-precision multi-time-scale generation power prediction. Aiming at the technical problems, development of a novel distributed photovoltaic power station generated power prediction system is urgently needed, data quality can be effectively improved, weather forecast data source selection is optimized, multi-time scale accurate prediction is achieved, and reliable technical support is provided for power grid dispatching. Disclosure of Invention Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a generating power prediction system and a generating power prediction method suitable for a distributed photovoltaic power station, which are as follows: 1) The invention provides a power generation power prediction system suitable for a distributed photovoltaic power station, which comprises a weather prediction server and a distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction device comprising a data acquisition module, a data management module, a weather prediction data analysis module and a power generation power prediction module, wherein the weather prediction server is used for acquiring weather prediction data from a plurality of weather prediction websites, the data acquisition module is used for acquiring power generation data and weather prediction data of the distributed photovoltaic power station from a photovoltaic local monitoring device or a SCADA system, the data management module is used for carrying out anomaly detection and processing on the power generation data and the weather prediction data of the distributed photovoltaic power station acquired by the data acquisition module, the weather prediction data analysis module is used for receiving and carrying out precision analysis on the weather prediction data from the weather prediction server and the processed weather prediction data from the data management module to determine the weather prediction data with high precision, and the power generation power prediction module is used for car