CN-122001016-A - Regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method and device considering extreme weather

CN122001016ACN 122001016 ACN122001016 ACN 122001016ACN-122001016-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method and device considering extreme weather, and belongs to the technical field of power system planning and operation. The method comprises the steps of constructing an extreme weather time sequence scene library, constructing a regional load 8760 hour time sequence prediction model under extreme weather, outputting time-by-time load data under the extreme weather of the future year, constructing a time sequence simulation model with the maximum comprehensive output of new energy under the extreme weather, outputting time-by-time output data of the new energy, collecting technical data of a regional conventional power supply, constructing a regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization model, and measuring and calculating and verifying the regional power grid power balance condition under the extreme weather. The method is used for solving the technical problem that the traditional power balance measuring and calculating method cannot be applied due to the fact that comprehensive influences of extreme weather on load, new energy output and operation characteristics of power grid equipment are not fully considered.

Inventors

FANG ZHOU
CHEN XINGWEI
LIU FANGBING
GAO KUN
TENG WEIJUN
ZHU QUANSHENG
LIU MINGYANG
ZHU YONGZHENG
PAN XUEQING
LI XIAOMENG
ZHANG HAO
LI ZUN
DU XIAOYONG
Tian chunsun
GAO ZE
ZHANG DI
LI CHENGHAO
LIU WEI
LI QIONGLIN

Assignees

国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院
国网河南省电力公司
国家电网有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260508
Application Date: 20260122

Claims (8)

1. The regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method considering extreme weather is characterized by comprising the following steps of: s1, acquiring regional historical extreme weather data and constructing an extreme weather time sequence scene library; s2, constructing a regional load 8760 hour time sequence load prediction model under extreme weather based on an extreme weather time sequence scene library, and outputting time-by-time load data under the extreme weather of the future year; S3, constructing a time sequence simulation model with the maximum comprehensive output of new energy under extreme weather based on an extreme weather time sequence scene library, and outputting time-by-time output data of the new energy; S4, collecting installation information, equipment parameters and operation characteristic data of the regional conventional power supply, and establishing a regional conventional power supply basic database; s5, constructing a regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization model based on the regional conventional power supply basic database established in the step S4, the time sequence simulation model constructed in the step S3 and the time sequence load prediction model constructed in the step S2; and S6, calculating the power balance condition of the regional power grid in extreme weather by using the regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization model.
2. The regional power grid power balance measurement method considering extreme weather according to claim 1, wherein the specific method of step S1 comprises: The method comprises the steps of collecting historical extreme weather data of a region, including extreme weather types, occurrence time periods, duration, intensity levels and corresponding weather parameter time sequence data, dividing typical time sequence scenes of the extreme weather by combining future weather scene prediction data, defining time sequence evolution characteristics of the extreme weather in different scenes, and establishing an extreme weather time sequence scene library comprising scene numbers, weather types, time sequence weather parameters and influence ranges.
3. The regional power grid power balance measurement method considering extreme weather according to claim 2, wherein the specific method of step S2 comprises: S21, collecting regional historical hour-level load data, extreme weather historical meteorological data, socioeconomic data and power grid equipment operation parameters, cleaning the collected data, removing abnormal values and missing values, and establishing a load-meteorological-socioeconomic multidimensional database; S22, identifying quantitative association relations between extreme weather factors and different types of loads by using a Pearson correlation analysis method based on a multidimensional database; S23, a combined model combining an improved long-short-term memory network and weather scene embedding is adopted, historical 8760-hour load data and conventional meteorological data are used as bases to be input, a reference load prediction model is trained, extreme weather scene parameters in the future are used as embedding variables, weight parameters of the reference model are corrected, the regional load 8760-hour time load prediction model in extreme weather is obtained through model iterative training, and 8760-hour time-by-time load prediction curves in extreme weather in the future are output, wherein the time-by-time load prediction curves comprise time sequence distribution characteristics of peak load, valley load and flat load.
4. The regional power grid power balance measurement method considering extreme weather according to claim 3, wherein the specific method of step S3 comprises: s31, determining a time sequence simulation model objective function with the maximum comprehensive output of new energy under extreme weather, wherein the objective function is expressed as follows: Wherein: Is the dimension of time% =1, 2,..8760, Unit: h); Is that The output power of the photovoltaic power station at the moment is MW; Is that The output power of the wind power plant at the moment is MW; S32, setting a multidimensional new energy output constraint condition by combining the actual power grid operation condition under extreme weather, wherein the method comprises the following steps: correcting the output parameters of the new energy equipment according to the extreme weather type; the annual utilization hours of new energy constraint is that the economy of new energy consumption is ensured, and the annual utilization hours of photovoltaic energy are ensured Wind power annual utilization hours Wherein: 、 The minimum guaranteed year utilization hours of the photovoltaic and wind power are determined according to the regional new energy planning; the transmission capacity of the line between the partitions is constrained by considering the influence of extreme weather on the current-carrying capacity of the line, and the transmission capacity is reduced by 10% -20% due to the increase of the sag of the lead in high-temperature weather, wherein the constraint expression is that Wherein: the transmission power of the line between the partitions at the time t; the rated transmission capacity of the line in normal weather; is a high temperature influence coefficient; s33, outputting time-by-time output data of the new energy based on the multi-dimensional new energy output constraint condition.
5. The method for measuring and calculating the power balance of a regional power grid considering extreme weather according to claim 4, wherein the specific method of step S4 comprises: s41, packaging machine information, namely comprehensively packaging the packaging machine capacity, the power type and the geographic distribution of the conventional power supply in each power supply partition in the region, and determining the power supply coverage range of the conventional power supply in each partition; s42, collecting core equipment parameters, namely collecting the core equipment parameters, including output boundary parameters, adjustment characteristic parameters and operation constraint parameters, of different types of conventional power supplies of each partition; S43, analyzing the operation characteristics, namely counting historical start-stop records, time sequence output curves and operation and maintenance data of the conventional power supplies in each partition for approximately 3-5 years, analyzing the output response characteristics of the conventional power supplies under different working conditions, and identifying the output attenuation rule of the conventional power supplies in extreme weather; S44, building a basic database, namely building a partitioned conventional power supply basic database by integrating the combed installation information, the equipment parameters and the operation characteristic data, and storing the database according to the classification of power supply partitions, wherein the database comprises data updating time stamps, so that timeliness and traceability of the parameters are ensured.
6. The method for measuring and calculating the power balance of a regional power grid considering extreme weather according to claim 5, wherein the specific method of step S5 comprises: S51, determining a regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization model objective function, namely maximizing power supply capacity under extreme weather of each power supply subarea and optimizing cross-region power exchange as a double objective, and considering power balance stability in the subarea and power supply resource optimization configuration in the whole region, wherein a specific objective function expression is as follows: Wherein Z is the total number of power supply partitions, Z is the number of the power supply partitions, and t is the time dimension; The power output of the conventional power supply is z-partition t time; the new energy output is generated at the moment of the partition t of z, and lambda is a cross-region power exchange penalty coefficient; the power of the transregional transmission of the z1 partition and the z2 partition at the t moment; s52, setting core constraint conditions: Partition power balance constraint, namely, for each power supply partition, the balance of load requirements and power supply capacity is met time by time, namely Wherein The load is the moment of the z partition t; energy storage charging and discharging power is stored at the time t of the z partition; 、 input and output power at the moment of the z partition t are respectively; The power output of the conventional power supply is z-partition t time; New energy output is generated at the moment of t of the z partition; The conventional power supply operation constraint is to constrain the output force of each partition conventional power supply between the minimum technical output and the maximum output based on the partition conventional power supply basic database parameters, and the output change rate does not exceed the climbing/descending rate, and simultaneously meets the requirements of start-stop interval and time sequence output continuity; The transmission constraint of the subarea line, namely, considering the transmission capacity attenuation of the inter-subarea interconnecting line under extreme weather, and constraining the trans-subarea transmission power not to exceed the modified rated transmission capacity of the line Wherein The transmission capacity is corrected for the zone interconnection line at the moment z1-z 2; And (3) energy storage and new energy constraint, namely continuing the output characteristic constraint and the energy storage charging and discharging constraint of the new energy, and refining parameters according to power supply subareas to ensure the safety of new energy absorption and energy storage operation of each subarea.
7. The method for measuring and calculating the power balance of a regional power grid considering extreme weather according to claim 6, wherein the specific method of step S6 comprises: s61, adopting an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm to combine a time sequence rolling solving strategy, inputting extreme weather scenes, load data, new energy output data and conventional power supply basic data, carrying out time-by-time iterative solving by taking 8760 hours as a time scale, and outputting time-by-time power supply capacity data and a time sequence change curve of each partition under extreme weather; s62, performing special verification aiming at the extremely high-power-generation period of the extreme weather and the period with larger power balance deviation, comparing the model output results under the situations of the conventional weather and the extreme weather, quantifying the extreme weather influence, generating a measuring and calculating report, and providing optimization suggestions for guaranteeing stable power supply under the extreme weather, such as power supply scheduling strategy adjustment, energy storage configuration optimization, power grid facility upgrading and the like.
8. A regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating device considering extreme weather, which is realized based on the regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method considering extreme weather according to any one of claims 1 to 7, and is characterized by comprising: The data acquisition module is used for acquiring regional historical extreme weather data and constructing an extreme weather time sequence scene library; The time sequence load prediction module is used for constructing a regional load 8760 hour time sequence load prediction model under extreme weather and outputting time-by-time load data under the extreme weather of the future; The time sequence simulation module is used for constructing a time sequence simulation model with the maximum comprehensive output of the new energy under extreme weather and outputting time-by-time output data of the new energy; The conventional power supply operation parameter management module is used for collecting installation information, equipment parameters and operation characteristic data of the regional conventional power supply and establishing a partitioned conventional power supply basic database; The regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization module is used for constructing a regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization model, taking electric power balance as a target, and optimizing output dispatching schemes of various power supplies by combining power grid safety constraint; And the result output module is used for measuring and calculating the power balance condition of the regional power grid under extreme weather, carrying out model solving, and outputting a verification result and an optimization suggestion.

Description

Regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method and device considering extreme weather Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of power system planning and operation, in particular to a regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method and device considering extreme weather. Background With the global warming aggravated, typhoons, cold tides, high-temperature drought, snow storm and other extreme weather events frequently occur, which forms a serious threat to the safe and stable operation of regional power grids. Extreme weather can not only cause regional power consumption load to have abnormal fluctuation, but also influence the output efficiency of new energy equipment, and simultaneously the transmission capacity of a power grid line can be reduced, so that the power supply capacity of the power grid is reduced, and even a large-area power failure accident is caused. The existing regional power grid power level and measuring and calculating method are mostly based on conventional weather working conditions, comprehensive influences of extreme weather on load, new energy output and power grid equipment operation characteristics are not fully considered, and the problem that the deviation between a measuring and calculating result and the actual working conditions is large exists. Part of the measuring and calculating method aiming at extreme weather only focuses on a single extreme weather type, or does not combine 8760 hour time sequence all year round to carry out refined simulation, so that the measuring and calculating result is difficult to comprehensively reflect the continuous power supply capacity of the power grid in extreme weather, and accurate technical support cannot be provided for planning, scheduling and operation of the power grid and formulation of emergency protection schemes. Therefore, a method and a device for measuring and calculating regional power grid power balance based on full time sequence data, which can comprehensively consider the influence of extreme weather in multiple dimensions, are needed to solve the technical problems of low measuring and calculating accuracy and poor scene applicability in the prior art. Disclosure of Invention In view of the above, the invention provides a regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method and device considering extreme weather aiming at the defects of the prior art. In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is that the regional power grid power balance measuring and calculating method considering extreme weather comprises the following steps: s1, acquiring regional historical extreme weather data and constructing an extreme weather time sequence scene library; s2, constructing a regional load 8760 hour time sequence load prediction model under extreme weather based on an extreme weather time sequence scene library, and outputting time-by-time load data under the extreme weather of the future year; S3, constructing a time sequence simulation model with the maximum comprehensive output of new energy under extreme weather based on an extreme weather time sequence scene library, and outputting time-by-time output data of the new energy; S4, collecting installation information, equipment parameters and operation characteristic data of the regional conventional power supply, and establishing a regional conventional power supply basic database; s5, constructing a regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization model based on the regional conventional power supply basic database established in the step S4, the time sequence simulation model constructed in the step S3 and the time sequence load prediction model constructed in the step S2; and S6, calculating the power balance condition of the regional power grid in extreme weather by using the regional power grid time sequence simulation optimization model. Further, the specific method of step S1 includes: The method comprises the steps of collecting historical extreme weather data of a region, including extreme weather types, occurrence time periods, duration, intensity levels and corresponding weather parameter time sequence data, dividing typical time sequence scenes of the extreme weather by combining future weather scene prediction data, defining time sequence evolution characteristics of the extreme weather in different scenes, and establishing an extreme weather time sequence scene library comprising scene numbers, weather types, time sequence weather parameters and influence ranges. Further, the specific method of step S2 includes: S21, collecting regional historical hour-level load data, extreme weather historical meteorological data, socioeconomic data and power grid equipment operation parameters, cleaning the collected data, removing abnormal values and missing values, and establishing a load-meteorological-socioeconomic multidimensional database; S