CN-122019678-A - Sea river basin convection scale set surface rainfall refined forecasting system and method

Abstract

The invention discloses a system and a method for finely forecasting the rainfall on a sea river basin convection scale collection surface, and relates to the technical field of weather forecast. Aiming at the important middle-small river basin subareas (9 subareas, 11 subareas, 32 subareas of important reservoirs and 77 subareas of middle-small rivers) of different types of sea and river basins, the method develops a rainfall forecasting product of a flow scale set surface, and specifically comprises a surface rainfall stamp graph, a percentile box graph, a rainfall forecasting time sequence graph of a set member surface and products of different percentiles of the set member surface rainfall. The system has better stability and reliability in extreme rainfall events, and lays a solid foundation for subsequent high-resolution face rainfall forecasting application.

Inventors

• WANG JING
• YANG XIAOJUN
• XIA YU
• LIU YIWEI
• HAN YUMENG
• XU WEI
• ZHANG HANBIN

Assignees

• 天津市气象台

Dates

Publication Date

20260512

Application Date

20260114

Claims (4)

1. 1. A sea river basin convection scale aggregate surface rainfall refined forecasting system is characterized in that the system is a sea river basin surface rainfall forecasting system based on CMA-BJ convection scale aggregate forecasting, a forecasting mode of WRFV4.1.2 edition is adopted, the system adopts core technologies of global aggregate forecasting data preprocessing, background field and side boundary data generation, initial disturbance obtained by combining conventional observation disturbance with aggregate data assimilation, random physical process trend mode disturbance and the like, an aggregate forecasting system with 3km horizontal resolution is established, and aggregate forecasting surface rainfall data covering the sea river basin range is formed; The mode area of the system is set to be a single-layer nested mode, the horizontal resolution of the system reaches 3km of convection resolvable scale, the area range is a North China area, the area range of a river basin is covered, 550X 424 grid points are covered, and the system is vertically provided with 51 layers, wherein the system reports from 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC twice a day, the forecast aging is 48 hours, the output interval is 1 hour, and 21 collection members are collected; The system operates in a Rui high-performance computing cluster, the high-performance computing cluster is provided with 800 computing nodes and 384G memories, 28800 cores are total, a single node computing floating point peak value is 2.9952TFlops, and 30 high-performance graphic workstations are provided; the system adopts shell scripts to carry out program nesting and calling, the main program is fortran language, the aggregate surface rainfall numerical analysis and drawing script is NCL program, and the system is matched with a post-processing program of python language.
2. 2. The method for finely forecasting the rainfall on the sea river basin convection scale set surface based on the system of claim 1 is characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, developing a refined partition scheme for a river basin, establishing high-resolution longitude and latitude grids in the river basin according to the resolution of a numerical mode, wherein grid intersection points are consistent with the numerical mode, carrying out data division on grid points of the river basin, and carrying out labeled classification on grid points of different river basins to form medium and small river grids with refined space distribution; S2, calculating the surface rainfall of the medium and small rivers according to a calculation scheme of the surface rainfall, so that a high space-time resolution surface rainfall forecast is formed, and the method is a core of surface rainfall calculation; S3, returning to the grid data according to the result of the face rainfall, and keeping the same face rainfall by grid points of the same drainage basin subarea.
3. 3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the face rainfall is calculated by the following formula: is the amount of face rain, the water level, Is the precipitation of the grid points, N grid points.
4. 4. The application of the convection dimension set surface rainfall refinement prediction system according to claim 1, wherein a sea river basin surface rainfall prediction product can be developed based on the convection dimension set surface rainfall refinement prediction system, and the prediction product comprises a surface rainfall stamp graph, a percentile box graph, a set member surface rainfall prediction time sequence graph and set member surface rainfall different percentile products.

Description

Sea river basin convection scale set surface rainfall refined forecasting system and method Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecast, in particular to a system and a method for finely forecasting the rainfall on a sea and river basin convection scale collection surface. Background The sea river basin rainfall refined prediction is a key technical support for flood prevention and drought resistance decision, and in recent years, the precision and timeliness are remarkably improved through means such as an integrated prediction system, an intelligent grid technology and multi-source data fusion. The regional set forecasting system (CMA-REPS) of the China weather bureau effectively quantifies the forecasting uncertainty through multi-member simulation, and the absolute error of the forecasting of the average face rainfall of the regional set is superior to that of the control forecasting through inspection, particularly, the regional set forecasting system has better performance in the range from small rainfall to medium rainfall, but the level of storm rainfall needs to be combined with extreme member references, meanwhile, the face rainfall forecasting technology based on intelligent grids can realize the fine early warning of 246 subareas of the medium and small rivers, and the forecasting capability of the medium and small scale strong convection weather is improved by combining high-resolution lattice live data. ‌ A However, the current forecast still faces the challenges of ‌ spatial maldistribution ‌ and ‌ extreme event capture ‌, such as large river system errors of CMA-REPS in the south of the ocean river basin, further optimization for the forecast of heavy rain, and the like. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a sea river basin convection scale set surface rainfall refined forecasting system and method, which are used for solving the problem that the existing forecasting system in the prior art is weak in heavy storm forecasting capability. The technical aim of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme that the system is a sea river basin surface rainfall fine forecasting system based on CMA-BJ convection scale set forecasting, wherein the forecasting mode adopts WRFV4.1.2 edition, the system adopts core technologies of global set forecasting data preprocessing, background field and side boundary data generation, initial disturbance obtained by combining conventional observation disturbance with set data assimilation, random physical process trend mode disturbance and the like, and an integrated forecasting system with 3km horizontal resolution is established to form integrated surface rainfall forecasting data covering the sea river basin; The mode area of the system is set to be a single-layer nested mode, the horizontal resolution of the system reaches 3km of convection resolvable scale, the area range is a North China area, the area range of a river basin is covered, 550X 424 grid points are covered, and the system is vertically provided with 51 layers, wherein the system reports from 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC twice a day, the forecast aging is 48 hours, the output interval is 1 hour, and 21 collection members are collected; The system operates in a Rui high-performance computing cluster, the high-performance computing cluster is provided with 800 computing nodes and 384G memories, 28800 cores are total, a single node computing floating point peak value is 2.9952TFlops, and 30 high-performance graphic workstations are provided; the system adopts shell scripts to carry out program nesting and calling, the main program is fortran language, the aggregate surface rainfall numerical analysis and drawing script is NCL program, and the system is matched with a post-processing program of python language. The invention further provides a method for finely forecasting the rainfall on the sea river basin convection scale set surface based on the system, which comprises the following steps: S1, developing a refined partition scheme for a river basin, establishing high-resolution longitude and latitude grids in the river basin according to the resolution of a numerical mode, wherein grid intersection points are consistent with the numerical mode, carrying out data division on grid points of the river basin, and carrying out labeled classification on grid points of different river basins to form medium and small river grids with refined space distribution; S2, calculating the surface rainfall of the medium and small rivers according to a calculation scheme of the surface rainfall, so that a high space-time resolution surface rainfall forecast is formed, and the method is a core of surface rainfall calculation; S3, returning to the grid data according to the result of the face rainfall, and keeping the same face rainfall by grid points of the same drainage basin subarea. The invention is further provided that the calculation formula of