CN-122020008-A - Daily risk coupling analysis method for shield tunnel

CN122020008ACN 122020008 ACN122020008 ACN 122020008ACN-122020008-A

Abstract

The invention relates to a daily risk coupling analysis method for a shield tunnel, which comprises the following steps of S1, identifying risk factors based on historical statistics tunnel defect data, S2, establishing a daily operation risk coupling model of the tunnel, S3, establishing an N-K model, calculating a risk coupling degree value, S4, calculating a transition probability matrix, S5, determining BN parameters, establishing a BN model, and S6, establishing a daily risk coupling analysis model of the tunnel. The method can systematically study the whole process of daily damage prevention and management of the shield tunnel, provide comprehensive management thought and strong practical optimization strategy, and provide scientific and feasible management mode and decision support for the safe operation of the shield tunnel system.

Inventors

LIU JIANG
XU NA
LAN HUIJUN
ZHANG RANRAN
JIANG WEIYU
SUN HONGLEI
LI YACHAO
HE LIJUN
WANG YUEHUI
CHEN ZHIFENG
YU RUIJIN
ZHAO FANGHONG
ZHUANG YUAN
ZHANG BO

Assignees

中铁隧道股份有限公司
浙江工业大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20250526

Claims (9)

1. A daily risk coupling analysis method for a shield tunnel is characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, identifying risk factors based on historical statistics tunnel defect data; s2, classifying risk coupling types in daily tunnel operation based on the attribute and the number of risk factors in the S1, and establishing a daily tunnel operation risk coupling model; S3, constructing an N-K model, distributing probability of risk factors through the N-K model, calculating probability of risk coupling, and further calculating a risk coupling degree value; S4, calculating a transition probability matrix, determining dynamic factors, performing dynamic performance evaluation on the selected dynamic factors, constructing the evaluated dynamic factors as dynamic nodes, and calculating to obtain a state transition probability matrix; S5, determining BN parameters, wherein the BN parameters comprise prior probability of BN nodes and node state values of the BN nodes; S6, constructing a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis model, wherein the tunnel daily risk coupling analysis model comprises a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis static Bayesian network and a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis dynamic Bayesian network.
2. The daily risk coupling analysis method for the shield tunnel according to claim 1 is characterized in that S1, the specific steps of identifying risk factors comprise: S11, classifying risk factors into four categories based on historical statistics tunnel defect data, wherein the four categories comprise human factors, tunnel factors, management factors and environmental factors; s12, respectively determining basic risk factors of human factors, tunnel factors, management factors and environmental factors.
3. The daily risk coupling analysis method for the shield tunnel according to claim 1 is characterized in that the specific classification of the risk coupling types in the daily operation of the tunnel in S2 is as follows: s21, single-factor risk coupling is a tunnel operation risk derived from a single risk factor; S22, double-factor risk coupling is interaction between two different factors causing tunnel operation risks, including person-tunnel coupling, person-management coupling, person-environment coupling, tunnel-management coupling, tunnel-environment coupling and management-environment coupling; s23. multifactor risk coupling is an interaction involving three or more factors in operational risk, including person-tunnel-management coupling, person-tunnel-environment coupling, person-management-environment coupling, tunnel-management-environment coupling, and person-tunnel-management-environment coupling.
4. The daily risk coupling analysis method for the shield tunnel according to claim 1 is characterized by comprising the following specific steps of: S31, the statistical coupling frequencies of different risk factors, In the calculation of the N-K model, according to 15 coupling conditions of four risk factors including people, tunnels, management and environment in the step S2, the coupling frequency is counted; S32, calculating the probability of the risk coupling in different forms, According to the statistical coupling frequency of S31, calculating the probability of the different forms of the single-factor risk coupling, the probability of the different forms of the double-factor risk coupling and the probability of the different forms of the multi-factor risk coupling; S33, calculating a risk coupling degree value, The interaction information T between factors participating in coupling is calculated through an N-K model, the larger the coupling degree T of a certain risk coupling is, the larger the risk value of the coupling form is, and the greater the possibility of causing accidents by the coupling form is, wherein the calculation formula of the risk coupling degree of the double factors is as follows: The calculation formula of the multi-factor risk coupling degree is as follows:
5. The method for analyzing daily risk coupling of the shield tunnel according to claim 1, wherein the step S4 is characterized in that human factors, tunnel factors and management factors are determined to be dynamic factors, and a transition probability matrix of the node is calculated by three angles of the human factors, the tunnel factors and the management factors and is used for quantitatively describing probability distribution of state transition of the event.
6. The method for analyzing daily risk coupling of the shield tunnel according to claim 4, wherein 1 in the probability code number in S31 represents that the risk occurs, 0 represents that the risk does not occur, and the single factor risk coupling occurrence probability is represented as P 1000 、P 0100 、P 0010 、P 0001 , wherein P 1000 represents probability that daily tunnel damage is caused by risk factors of personnel, P 0100 represents probability that daily tunnel damage is caused by risk factors of the tunnel, P 0010 represents probability that daily tunnel damage is caused by managed risk factors, and P 0001 represents probability that daily tunnel damage is caused by managed environmental factors; The probability of occurrence of the two-factor risk coupling is expressed as' P 1100 、P 1010 、P 1001 、P 0110 、P 0101 P 0011 , wherein "P 1100 " represents the probability that a tunnel daily defect occurs due to the co-action of a person's risk factors and a tunnel's risk factors, "P 1010 " represents the probability that a tunnel daily defect occurs due to the co-action of a person's risk factors and a management's risk factors, "P 1001 " represents the probability that a tunnel daily defect occurs due to the co-action of a person's risk factors and an environment's risk factors, "P 0110 " represents the probability that a tunnel daily defect occurs due to the co-action of a tunnel's risk factors and a management's risk factors, "P 0101 " represents the probability that a tunnel daily defect occurs due to the co-action of a tunnel's risk factors and an environment's risk factors, and "P 0011 " represents the probability that a tunnel daily defect occurs due to the co-action of a management's risk factors and an environment's risk factors; The probability of occurrence of multi-factor risk coupling is expressed as 'P 1110 、P 1101 、P 1011 、P 0111 、P 1111 ', wherein 'P 1110 ' indicates the probability that tunnel daily impairment is caused by the combined action of personnel's risk factors, tunnel's risk factors and managed risk factors, 'P 1101 ' indicates the probability that tunnel daily impairment is caused by the combined action of personnel's risk factors, tunnel's risk factors and environmental risk factors, 'P 1011 ' indicates the probability that tunnel daily impairment is caused by the combined action of personnel's risk factors, managed risk factors and environmental risk factors,' P 0111 'indicates the probability that tunnel daily impairment is caused by the combined action of tunnel's risk factors, managed risk factors and environmental risk factors, 'P 1111 ' indicates the probability that tunnel daily impairment is caused by the combined action of personnel's risk factors, tunnel's risk factors, managed risk factors and environmental risk factors; The number of incidents occurring in any of the 4 types of risk factors that do not participate in the risk effect is 0, i.e., P 0000 =0.
7. The method for analyzing daily risk coupling of a shield tunnel according to claim 4, wherein the step S32 of calculating probabilities of different forms of risk coupling specifically comprises the steps of: s321, probability of coupling different forms by single factor risk, Based on the coupling frequency counted in S31, under different conditions of single-factor risk coupling, calculating the value of P h 、P s 、P m 、P e respectively, wherein P h is the probability of risk factor participation risk coupling of a person, P s is the probability of risk factor participation risk coupling of a tunnel, P m is the probability of risk factor participation risk coupling of management, and P e is the probability of risk factor participation risk coupling of environment; S322. two-factor risk coupling probabilities of different forms, Based on the coupling frequency counted in the S31, under different conditions of double-factor risk coupling, calculating a value of P h,s 、P h,m 、P h,e 、P s,m 、P s,e 、P m,e , wherein P h,s is the probability of tunnel daily risk occurrence when the risk factors of the person and the tunnel participate in the risk coupling, P h,m is the probability of tunnel daily risk occurrence when the risk factors of the person and the management participate in the risk coupling, P h,e is the probability of tunnel daily risk occurrence when the risk factors of the person and the environment participate in the risk coupling, P s,m is the probability of tunnel daily risk occurrence when the risk factors of the tunnel and the management participate in the risk coupling, P s,e is the probability of tunnel daily risk occurrence when the risk factors of the tunnel and the environment participate in the risk coupling, and P m,e is the probability of tunnel daily risk occurrence when the risk factors of the management and the environment participate in the risk coupling; s323. probability of multiple factor risk coupling different forms, Based on the coupling frequency counted in the S31, under different conditions of multi-factor risk coupling, calculating a value of P h,s,m 、P h,s,e 、P h,m,e 、P s,m,e 、P h,s,m,e , wherein P h,s,m is probability that risk factors of a person, risk factors of a tunnel and managed risk factors participate in the risk coupling together to cause daily risk occurrence of the tunnel, P h,s,e is probability that risk factors of a person, risk factors of a tunnel and environment participate in the risk coupling together to cause daily risk occurrence of the tunnel, P h,m,e is probability that risk factors of a person, managed risk factors and environment participate in the risk coupling together to cause daily risk occurrence of the tunnel, P s,m,e is probability that risk factors of a tunnel, managed risk factors and environment participate in the risk coupling together to cause daily risk occurrence of the tunnel, and P h,s,m,e is probability that risk factors of a person, risk factors of a tunnel, managed risk factors and environment participate in the risk coupling together to cause daily risk occurrence of the tunnel.
8. The daily risk coupling analysis method for the shield tunnel according to claim 1 is characterized by comprising the following specific steps of: s51, determining the prior probability of the BN node, The basic risk factors are used as BN nodes, and the prior probability of the corresponding BN nodes is determined according to the historical statistical data of the basic risk factors and the ratio of annual maintenance quantity to workload; S52, determining a node state value of the BN node, And (3) inputting the risk coupling degree value obtained through calculation in the step (S3) into a BN model to obtain a node state value of the BN node.
9. The daily risk coupling analysis method for the shield tunnel according to claim 8, wherein the step S6 is to construct a daily risk coupling analysis model for the tunnel, and the specific steps are as follows: s61, establishing a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis static Bayesian network, Mapping basic risk factors, four major types of risk factors and coupling types into parameter nodes in a Bayesian network, inputting the prior probability of the BN node determined by S51, and establishing a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis static Bayesian network according to causal relations among the basic risk factors, the four major types of risk factors and the coupling types, wherein the parameter nodes comprise father nodes consisting of the basic risk factors, intermediate nodes consisting of the four major types of risk factors and child nodes consisting of the coupling types; s62, establishing a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis dynamic Bayesian network, Based on the tunnel daily risk coupling analysis static Bayesian network established in the S61, the transition probability matrix obtained in the S4 is input to obtain probability values of all dynamic nodes, and the probability information change from the t moment to the t+1 moment is represented.

Description

Daily risk coupling analysis method for shield tunnel Technical Field The invention relates to the field of tunnels and underground engineering in civil engineering, in particular to a daily risk coupling analysis method for a shield tunnel. Background In the long-term running process of the tunnel, the tunnel is often influenced by various factors such as geological conditions, equipment aging, improper maintenance and the like, so that various risks are caused. These risks are generally classified into low frequency but large-impacting events (such as floods, fires, earthquakes, etc.) and high frequency but small-impacting events (such as cracks, leaks, and lighting failures, etc.). The prevention of the former is undoubtedly very important, but in reality the probability of such disasters occurring during the life of the tunnel is very low, possibly even not. Tunnel operators may be more concerned about the frequently occurring risks associated with daily operation, i.e. the risks of high frequencies but less impact. Although these risks have relatively little impact, they can hinder the proper operation of tunnels, reduce traffic efficiency, and cause serious safety accidents. The daily risk mechanism of the tunnel is complex, and risk factors such as personnel, the tunnel, management, environment and the like are involved, so that misoperation of any personnel, tunnel system faults or severe environment can possibly cause daily risk diseases of the tunnel. Numerous studies have shown that tunnel daily risk is often caused by interactions of multiple risk factors. If the coupling between different risk factors is ignored, the deviation of the actual risk threat and loss degree estimate is often caused only from the single factor, linear thinking perspective. Therefore, a method for coupling and analyzing daily risks of the shield tunnel is needed, the daily service performance of the tunnel is comprehensively evaluated, the operation efficiency is improved, the operation cost is reduced, and the sustainable development of the tunnel is promoted. Disclosure of Invention In view of the shortcomings of the background technology, the technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a daily risk coupling analysis method for a shield tunnel. The method can systematically study the whole process of daily damage prevention and management of the shield tunnel, provide comprehensive management thought and strong practical optimization strategy, and provide scientific and feasible management mode and decision support for the safe operation of the shield tunnel system. The invention is completed by adopting the following technical scheme that the daily risk coupling analysis method for the shield tunnel comprises the following steps: S1, identifying risk factors based on historical statistics tunnel defect data; s2, classifying risk coupling types in daily tunnel operation based on the attribute and the number of risk factors in the S1, and establishing a daily tunnel operation risk coupling model; S3, constructing an N-K model, distributing probability of risk factors through the N-K model, calculating probability of risk coupling, and further calculating a risk coupling degree value; S4, calculating a transition probability matrix, determining dynamic factors, performing dynamic performance evaluation on the selected dynamic factors, constructing the evaluated dynamic factors as dynamic nodes, and calculating to obtain a state transition probability matrix; S5, determining BN parameters, wherein the BN parameters comprise prior probability of BN nodes and node state values of the BN nodes; S6, constructing a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis model, wherein the tunnel daily risk coupling analysis model comprises a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis static Bayesian network and a tunnel daily risk coupling analysis dynamic Bayesian network. Further, S1, the specific steps of identifying risk factors include: S11, classifying risk factors into four categories based on historical statistics tunnel defect data, wherein the four categories comprise human factors, tunnel factors, management factors and environmental factors; s12, respectively determining basic risk factors of human factors, tunnel factors, management factors and environmental factors. Further, in S2, the specific classification of risk coupling types in daily operation of the tunnel is as follows: s21, single-factor risk coupling is a tunnel operation risk derived from a single risk factor; S22, double-factor risk coupling is interaction between two different factors causing tunnel operation risks, including person-tunnel coupling, person-management coupling, person-environment coupling, tunnel-management coupling, tunnel-environment coupling and management-environment coupling; s23. multifactor risk coupling is an interaction involving three or more factors in operational risk, including person-tunnel-management coupling, person-tunnel-e