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CN-122020025-A - Civil aviation carbon emission prediction method based on civil aviation core element configuration

CN122020025ACN 122020025 ACN122020025 ACN 122020025ACN-122020025-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a civil aviation carbon emission prediction method based on civil aviation core element configuration, which comprises the following steps of S1, constructing a national civil aviation development scene in a preset time period, S2, solving the space-time evolution configuration of the civil aviation core element in the preset time period under different scenes based on the national aviation development scene in the preset time period, S3, calculating the civil aviation CO 2 emission quantity under different scenes by adopting a bottom-up method based on the civil aviation core element configuration result, determining emission peak level and time, and S4, comparing the element configuration and emission results of different scenes, and analyzing the application effect of a carbon emission reduction means. And through the coupling of the scene analysis and the decision support system, the collaborative prediction of element configuration and carbon emission is realized. The embodiment of the invention can construct a technical method for coupling core element configuration, multi-scenario analysis and carbon emission prediction depth, thereby effectively improving the prediction accuracy of civil aviation carbon emission.

Inventors

  • SUN LIANG

Assignees

  • 中国民航管理干部学院

Dates

Publication Date
20260512
Application Date
20260105

Claims (10)

  1. 1. A method for predicting civil aviation carbon emission based on civil aviation core element configuration, which is characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, constructing a Chinese civil aviation development scene in a preset time period, wherein the method comprises the steps of predicting transportation requirements by adopting a system dynamics method, predicting airport layout by combining a position set coverage model (LSCP) and a maximum coverage site selection Model (MCLP), and configuring parameters of a reference scene, a carbon neutralization scene and a double-carbon scene; s2, solving the space-time evolution configuration of civil aviation core elements in the preset time period under different situations through a civil aviation green transformation decision support system based on the preset time period Chinese civil aviation development situations, wherein the civil aviation core elements comprise a fleet, an airport and a route; S3, measuring and calculating the emission of the civil aviation CO 2 under different scenes by adopting a bottom-up method based on the configuration result of the civil aviation core element, and determining the emission peak level and time; S4, comparing element configuration and emission results of different scenes, and analyzing the application effect of the carbon emission reduction means.
  2. 2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the system dynamics method in step S1 takes population size, annual average growth rate of GDP, and town level as input variables, and outputs regional and time-division civil aviation transportation demands in a predetermined time period in combination with calibration of regional historical civil aviation demand data.
  3. 3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the airport layout prediction in step S1 comprises constructing a town-centric airport alternative set, combining land-based economic and social data, ensuring that a predetermined range of population is within a predetermined reachable time range of an airport through a location set coverage model (LSCP), maximizing population and economic total covered by airport services through a maximum coverage site selection Model (MCLP), and outputting space-time evolution data of airport quantity, scale and geographic location.
  4. 4. The method of claim 1, wherein the parameters of the reference scenario in step S1 are configured to take into account carbon costs and to employ standard year (2020) technical levels, wherein the parameters of the carbon neutralization scenario are configured to incorporate dynamic carbon costs for a target year (2060) civil aviation industry-wide carbon neutralization, and wherein the parameters of the two-carbon scenario are configured to incorporate dynamic carbon costs for a target carbon peak year (2030 carbon peak), and for a carbon neutralization year (2060 carbon neutralization).
  5. 5. The method of claim 4, wherein the dynamic carbon cost is determined by coupling a carbon market fluctuation coefficient predicted by a time series model with a regional emission reduction policy adjustment coefficient.
  6. 6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the core element configuration in step S2 includes a fleet configuration (extension type scale, new add/drop cadence), an airport configuration (quantity, scale, crew type), an airline configuration (model match, flight frequency).
  7. 7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the bottom-up method in step S3 comprises: S31, parameter acquisition and standardization are carried out to form a machine type-parameter mapping table. S32, calculating the fuel consumption of the single air route-model, and forming an air route-model-fuel consumption data set. S33, correcting the emission quantity, and introducing an emission reduction coefficient to correct the basic emission quantity. And S34, accumulating according to the route, the time period and the area to obtain the total emission amount of the CO 2 and the time-space distribution.
  8. 8. The method of claim 7, wherein the new model emission reduction factor = 1-new model fuel efficiency/old model fuel efficiency, and wherein the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emission reduction factor = Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) co-firing ratio x configuration factor.
  9. 9. The method of claim 1, wherein the carbon emission reduction means in step S4 comprises new energy saving model introduction, sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) application, airport layout optimization, and the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) application effect analysis comprises emission reduction contribution rate of each means and influence degree on element configuration.
  10. 10. A storage medium storing a computer program, which when executed by a processor implements the method of predicting civil aviation carbon emissions based on a civil aviation core element configuration of any one of claims 1-9.

Description

Civil aviation carbon emission prediction method based on civil aviation core element configuration Technical Field The present invention relates generally to the field of carbon emissions technology. More particularly, the invention relates to a method for predicting civil aviation carbon emissions based on civil aviation core element configuration. Background The civil aviation industry is taken as a strategic support of a national comprehensive transportation system, is a core carrier for supporting regional economic coordination and global trade and business, and the transportation scale of the civil aviation industry is continuously expanded along with population growth and GDP lifting, namely, the transportation capacity of the civil aviation passengers in China in 2019 breaks through 6.6 hundred million people, and is expected to reach more than 30 hundred million people in 2060. However, at the same time, civil aviation is also one of the important carbon emission fields in the transportation field, and the increase of energy consumption and total carbon emission becomes a key short board for achieving the aim of carbon neutralization in 2060 years. In the long-period green transformation process, the civil aviation development path is commonly influenced by multidimensional factors such as transportation requirements (population scale, urbanization level and resident trip preference), airport layout (quantity, scale and space distribution), technical iteration (new model and sustainable fuel), policy constraint (carbon tax and quota) and the like, and the time-space evolution of the core factors directly determines the change trend of carbon emission. At present, the demand of civil aviation for accurate prediction of long-period carbon emission paths is urgent, namely, on one hand, the carbon emission peak level and the peak reaching time under different development scenes are required to be clarified, and on the other hand, the actual contribution of various emission reduction means is required to be quantified. However, in the traditional planning, civil aviation core element configuration and carbon emission prediction are often in a 'separated state', namely element configuration focusing operation efficiency is optimized, the carbon emission prediction depends on macroscopic statistical coefficients, an analysis framework in cooperative association is not formed, and the 'economy-emission reduction' cooperative decision requirement is difficult to adapt. The technical scheme has obvious core defects, and has three main effects that firstly, the carbon emission prediction method mainly adopts macroscopic measurement from top to bottom, relies on industry average emission coefficients, is not bound with dynamic configuration depth of a fleet, an airport and a route, causes larger deviation between a prediction result and an actual operation scene, and cannot accurately reflect the influence of element space-time evolution on carbon emission. Secondly, the dimension of the scene setting is single, the parameters are solidified, most schemes only focus on policy constraints (such as carbon quota), and dynamic changes of factors such as regional growth of transport requirements, space-time expansion of airport layout and the like are not combined, so that the possibility of multiple development in a long period is difficult to cover. Thirdly, the effect analysis of the emission reduction means presents an 'isolation' characteristic, only the emission reduction proportion of a single means is calculated, how the emission is influenced by means of changing the core elements of a fleet structure, a route network and the like, such as new model introduction, sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) application and the like, is not clear, and the actual contribution degree of various means cannot be quantified. The problems directly lead to the phenomenon of 'two-skin' in civil aviation long-period green transformation planning, namely, a carbon emission prediction result is separated from an operation reality, an element configuration scheme cannot support an emission reduction target to land, and the problems are difficult to accurately match policy requirements under different scenes, and can not provide a technical guide capable of landing for an operation decision of an enterprise. In view of the foregoing, it is desirable to provide a method for predicting civil aviation carbon emissions based on the configuration of the civil aviation core element, so as to improve the accuracy of the carbon emission prediction result. Disclosure of Invention In order to solve at least one or more of the technical problems mentioned above, the present invention proposes, in various aspects, a method of predicting civil aviation carbon emissions based on a civil aviation core element configuration. In a first aspect, the invention provides a method for predicting civil aviation carbon emission based on civil aviation core