CN-122020372-A - Quantitative evaluation method for influence of ocean environment forecast product errors on sound field forecast

CN122020372ACN 122020372 ACN122020372 ACN 122020372ACN-122020372-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a quantitative evaluation method of the influence of marine environment forecast product errors on sound field forecast, which relates to the technical field of marine engineering and adopts the technical scheme that the quantitative evaluation method comprises the following steps of S1, taking sea water sound velocity profile data measured on site in a target sea area as real sound velocity, taking sea water sound velocity profile data output by marine environment forecast products in a corresponding space-time range as forecast sound velocity, S2, calculating data space-time alignment and marine forecast sound velocity errors, S3, generating a sound velocity error spatial distribution map, S4, constructing a sound velocity disturbance probability model and a sound velocity disturbance sample set based on sound velocity forecast errors, and calculating sound field propagation loss by adopting a parabolic equation model to obtain reference sound propagation loss And sound field propagation loss disturbance samples S5, extracting the distance of the convergence region, S6, according to the distance error of the first convergence region in each grid space unit Distance error of second convergence zone And generating a distance error space distribution diagram of the sound field convergence region.

Inventors

ZHANG YINQUAN
QIU YANPING
GAO SIYU
CHEN QIAN
LI DONG
FU HONGLI

Assignees

国家海洋信息中心

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260121

Claims (10)

1. The quantitative evaluation method of the influence of the marine environment forecast product error on the sound field forecast is characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, taking sea water sound velocity profile data measured in site of target sea area as real sound velocity Sea water sound velocity profile data output by marine environment forecasting products corresponding to space-time ranges is used as forecasting sound velocity ; S2, calculating data space-time alignment and ocean forecast sound velocity error Predicting sound velocity by adopting cubic spline interpolation method And measuring true sound velocity in situ Aligned on the space-time grid, calculating the difference value between the predicted sound velocity and the measured sound velocity at each space-time sampling point to obtain the sea water sound velocity prediction error And according to the depth analysis of its statistical characteristics, calculating its mean value And standard deviation ; S3, generating a sound velocity error space distribution diagram Mean value of prediction error according to sound velocity in grid space unit Generating a two-dimensional sound velocity error spatial distribution matrix and visually displaying the two-dimensional sound velocity error spatial distribution matrix; S4, constructing a sound velocity disturbance probability model and a sound velocity disturbance sample set based on sound velocity prediction errors, and calculating sound field propagation loss by adopting a parabolic equation model to obtain reference sound propagation loss And sound field propagation loss disturbance samples ; S5, propagation loss from reference sound Extracting reference first convergence zone distance And a reference second convergence distance Disturbing samples from sound field propagation loss Extracting the first convergence distance of the disturbance sample And perturbing the sample second convergence distance And calculating the first convergence region distance of the disturbance sample First convergence zone distance relative to reference Root mean square error of (2) And perturbing the sample second convergence distance Distance of second convergence zone relative to reference Root mean square error of (2) ; S6, according to the distance error of the first convergence region in each grid space unit And a second convergence zone distance error And generating a distance error space distribution diagram of the sound field convergence region.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the sea water sound velocity prediction error in step S2 Wherein x, y are horizontal coordinates, z is a depth coordinate, and t is time.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S3, the specific step of generating a sound velocity error spatial profile comprises: (1) Dividing a target sea area into space units according to 1 degree multiplied by 1 degree grids; (2) Calculating an average value of the prediction errors of the sound velocity in each grid space cell Obtaining the average sound velocity errors of the grid units, and arranging the average sound velocity errors of all grids according to a geographic sequence to form a two-dimensional sound velocity error spatial distribution matrix; (3) And (3) carrying out visual display on the sound velocity error spatial distribution matrix by adopting a drawing tool, and utilizing colors to represent the sound velocity error, and superposing land contour lines to generate a sound velocity error spatial distribution map.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S4, the sound velocity disturbance probability model adopts a normal distribution model, and obeys the normal distribution 。
5. The method according to claim 4, wherein in step S4, M groups of independent satisfying normal distributions are generated according to a normal distribution model Random number of (a) Will be As a sound velocity disturbance factor, a sound velocity disturbance sample set is constructed: 。
6. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S4, the following is performed Inputting the parabolic equation model to obtain reference sound propagation loss Each sound velocity is disturbed to sample Respectively inputting the sound field propagation loss disturbance samples into a parabolic equation model to obtain corresponding sound field propagation loss disturbance samples 。
7. The method according to any one of claims 1-6, wherein the convergence zone distance extraction method is: Performing depth integration and horizontal smoothing and averaging on the propagation loss of the sound field to obtain a horizontal distance-propagation loss curve ; From propagation loss curve The minimum point is selected as the center of the convergence zone.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the minimum points are selected to meet the following conditions: (1) The propagation loss of the point is more than 5 dB percent lower than the surrounding background; (2) The horizontal distances exhibit a periodic distribution of approximately equal spacing.
9. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S5, the first convergence distance of the sample is disturbed First convergence zone distance relative to reference Root mean square error of (2) The method comprises the following steps: ; Disturbance of sample second convergence zone distance Distance of second convergence zone relative to reference Root mean square error of (2) The method comprises the following steps: 。
10. the method of claim 1, wherein the method of generating a sound field convergence region distance error spatial profile is as follows: (1) Dividing a target sea area into space units according to 1 degree multiplied by 1 degree grids; (2) Calculating the root mean square error of the distance between the first convergence region and the disturbance sample of the convergence region in each grid space unit And perturbing the second convergence region of the sample by a root mean square error Respectively obtaining a first convergence region distance error space distribution matrix and a second convergence region distance error space distribution matrix; (3) And (3) carrying out visual display on the distance error space distribution matrix of the convergence region by adopting a drawing tool, and generating a distance error space distribution map of the convergence region of the sound field by using colors to express the distance error of the convergence region and overlapping land contour lines.

Description

Quantitative evaluation method for influence of ocean environment forecast product errors on sound field forecast Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of ocean engineering, in particular to a quantitative evaluation method for influence of ocean environment forecast product errors on sound field forecast. Background The prediction accuracy of the underwater sound field serving as a core physical carrier for activities such as underwater target detection, communication and navigation directly determines the upper performance limit of a sonar system, and has decisive influence on the application of ocean resource development, underwater safety control and the like. Currently, sound field prediction mainly follows the technical paradigm of 'marine environment prediction driving acoustic calculation', namely, environment prediction elements such as temperature, salt, flow and the like output by marine numerical modes such as HYCOM, ROMS and the like are taken as input, and numerical simulation and prediction of sound field parameters are realized by means of underwater acoustic propagation models such as Bellhop, RAM, KRAKEN and the like. However, this technical link presents a fundamental bottleneck in that marine environmental forecast products themselves present non-negligible systematic errors. Such errors are mainly caused by imperfections and uncertainties of initial field information of the marine environment forecasting system and inherent defects of a physical process parameterization scheme, such as simplified processing of marine mixing processes, boundary layer effects and the like. The environmental errors are used as upstream input disturbance, and after being transmitted to an acoustic calculation link, the environmental errors are further amplified or modulated through a nonlinear transmission mechanism in an acoustic propagation model, so that a significant deviation is finally generated in sound field prediction, and serious consequences such as target misjudgment, communication link interruption and the like can be caused in practical application. Therefore, the influence mechanism of the system quantification marine environment prediction error on the sound field prediction precision becomes a key scientific problem for improving the reliability of the underwater sound prediction and promoting the transformation of the prediction capability from qualitative experience to quantitative controllable. In current underwater acoustic prediction research, those skilled in the art generally recognize that marine environment prediction errors have an effect on sound field prediction accuracy, however, the cognition is at a qualitative level, for example, it is generally pointed out that "temperature prediction deviation causes sound velocity profile distortion, and further causes sound field calculation deviation". Although such qualitative judgment has a certain guiding significance, an analysis method capable of systematically quantifying the influence degree of marine environment prediction errors on sound field prediction is not formed. Therefore, developing an evaluation method capable of quantitatively reflecting the association relationship between the marine environment prediction error and the sound field prediction precision has become a key problem to be solved urgently for improving the underwater sound prediction capability. Disclosure of Invention Aiming at the defects existing in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a quantitative evaluation method for the influence of marine environment forecast product errors on sound field forecast, which expresses the amplitude and spatial distribution characteristics of the underwater sound field forecast errors caused by marine environment forecast uncertainty by constructing a complete quantization link of environment forecast errors-sound field forecast errors, and provides basis and scientific support for reliability judgment and reliability improvement of marine acoustic forecast. In order to achieve the aim, the invention provides the technical scheme that the quantitative evaluation method for the influence of the marine environment forecast product error on the sound field forecast comprises the following steps: S1, taking sea water sound velocity profile data measured in site of target sea area as real sound velocity Sea water sound velocity profile data output by marine environment forecasting products corresponding to space-time ranges is used as forecasting sound velocity; S2, calculating data space-time alignment and ocean forecast sound velocity error Predicting sound velocity by adopting cubic spline interpolation methodAnd measuring true sound velocity in situAligned on the space-time grid, calculating the difference value between the predicted sound velocity and the measured sound velocity at each space-time sampling point to obtain the sea water sound velocity prediction errorAnd according to the d