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CN-122020413-A - Method for judging susceptibility to moraine lake burst and application thereof

CN122020413ACN 122020413 ACN122020413 ACN 122020413ACN-122020413-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for judging the liability of a moraine lake burst and application thereof, belonging to the field of hydraulic engineering, wherein the method comprises the following steps of a, measuring basic parameters of a moraine dike and the moraine lake, and estimating the volume of a potential frivolous or landslide body entering the moraine lake and the surge wave height and the surge wave speed before the surge propagates to the moraine dike; b, calculating the rising height of the water level caused by the surge, c, judging whether the water level of the moraine lake exceeds the back water slope or the overflow channel after the surge, d, calculating the shearing stress of the surge on the back water slope or the overflow channel, e, judging the burst probability level of the moraine lake based on the judging result of whether the water level exceeds and the shearing stress. According to the invention, the coupling analysis is carried out on the volume of the material entering the lake, the characteristic of the excited surge, the structural parameter of the dam and the water level change for the first time, the limitation that qualitative evaluation is carried out by only relying on a single factor or a few factors in the past is broken through, the accuracy of determining the burst susceptibility of the tillus lake is greatly improved, and the applicability is enhanced.

Inventors

  • YU BIN
  • CHEN LONG
  • KUANG XUAN
  • SHI CAN

Assignees

  • 成都理工大学

Dates

Publication Date
20260512
Application Date
20251212

Claims (10)

  1. 1. The method for judging the susceptibility of the moraine lake to break is characterized by comprising the following steps of: a. Measuring the average medium diameter particle diameter of a coarse particle armor layer of a back water slope or overflow channel of a moraine dike, the height difference between the existing water level of the moraine lake and the back water slope or overflow channel, the area of the moraine lake and the perimeter of the moraine lake, and estimating the volume of potential ice rock collapse or landslide bodies entering the moraine lake and the surge wave height and the surge wave velocity before the surge propagates to the moraine dike; b. calculating the water level rising height caused by the surge according to the volume of the potential ice rock collapse or landslide body entering the tillite lake; c. judging whether the water level of the moraine lake exceeds the back water slope or the overflow channel after the surge according to the water level rising height and the height difference; d. Calculating the shearing stress of the swell on a back water slope or an overflow channel according to the average medium diameter particle size, the dry side of the tillite lake before the swell, the swell wave height before the swell is transmitted to the tillite dike and the swell wave speed; e. And judging the susceptibility level of the moraine lake burst based on the judging result of whether the water level exceeds the water level and the shearing stress.
  2. 2. The method for judging the susceptibility to breaking of a tillus lake according to claim 1, wherein in the step a, if the lowest position of the overflow channel is lower than the lowest position of the top of the tillus dam, the measurement and subsequent calculation are based on the overflow channel, otherwise, the measurement and subsequent calculation are based on a back water slope, and the height difference is positive when the water level of the tillus lake is lower than the surface of the coarse-grain armor layer and is negative when the water level is higher than the surface of the coarse-grain armor layer.
  3. 3. The method for judging the susceptibility to breaking of the tillus lake according to claim 1, wherein in the step b, the elevation of the water level is calculated by the formula one; Formula I; wherein H0 is the rising height of the water level of the tillite after surging, A is the area of the tillite, V is the volume of potential ice rock collapse or landslide mass entering the tillite lake, and L is the perimeter of the tillite lake.
  4. 4. The method for judging the susceptibility to breaking of a tillite lake according to claim 3, wherein when the rising height of the water level is calculated, if the volume of the water entering the tillite lake contains ice, the water level corresponding to 10% of the volume of the ice is subtracted.
  5. 5. The method for judging the susceptibility to breaking of a tillite lake according to claim 1, wherein in the step c, judging whether the water level of the tillite lake after a surge exceeds the back water slope or the overflow path means judging a water level relationship by two means; A second formula; Wherein Hh is the relation value between the water level after the surging and the back water slope or overflow channel, when Hh >0, the water level overflow is judged to occur, H0 is the rising height of the water level of the morus lake after the surging, and H0 is the height difference.
  6. 6. The method for judging the susceptibility to moraine lake break according to claim 1, wherein in step d, when h0>0, the shear stress is calculated by three methods; Formula III; Wherein T is shear stress, C is surge wave velocity, H is surge wave height, D is average medium diameter particle size, g is gravitational acceleration, hg is the topsides of the pre-surge morus lake and Hg=h0.
  7. 7. The method for judging the susceptibility to moraine lake break according to claim 1, wherein in the step d, when h0 is less than or equal to 0, the surge shear stress is calculated by four methods; Formula IV; Wherein T is shear stress, C is surge wave velocity, D is average medium diameter particle size, and g is gravitational acceleration.
  8. 8. The method for judging the susceptibility to moraine lake break according to claim 1, wherein in the step e, the susceptibility level judging basis comprises: When Hh is less than or equal to 0, judging the green grade with low susceptibility; when Hh is more than 0 and less than or equal to 0.6D, correspondingly judging green, blue, yellow, orange or red grades according to the numerical range of the shearing stress T; When Hh >0.6D, a red grade with high susceptibility is judged.
  9. 9. The method for judging the susceptibility to moraine lake break according to claim 8, wherein when 0< Hh is less than or equal to 0.6D, the correspondence between the susceptibility level and the shearing stress T is: When T <0.61, green scale; When T is more than or equal to 0.61 and less than 0.73, the blue grade is obtained; when T is more than or equal to 0.73 and less than 0.94, the yellow grade is obtained; When T is more than or equal to 0.94 and less than 1.19, the color is orange; When T is more than or equal to 1.19, the red grade is obtained.
  10. 10. The application of the method for judging the susceptibility to the collapse of the tillite lake is characterized in that the method for judging the susceptibility to the collapse of the tillite lake according to any one of claims 1 to 9 is used for evaluating the risk of the collapse of the tillite lake caused by the excitation of surge and water level rise of the fridge collapse or landslide entering the fridge lake.

Description

Method for judging susceptibility to moraine lake burst and application thereof Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of hydraulic engineering, in particular to a method for judging the susceptibility of moraine lake burst and application thereof. Background At present, most of the moraine lakes are broken because landslide or rock burst quickly enters the lake, and due to huge volume and speed, surges are formed in the moraine lakes, move to the moraine dykes and climb over the moraine dykes, and erode the moraine dykes to cause the moraine lakes to break. The huge landslide or the rock collapse body enters the tillite lake, so that the water level is inevitably increased, and the water flow overflows to possibly cause the cutting of the tillite dam to finally lead to the collapse of the tillite lake. The susceptibility to the moraine burst at home and abroad is mainly determined by regional research, and the distribution of the moraine burst on the regional scale is determined. For example, chen Haowen, the method adopts means and methods such as remote sensing interpretation, logistic regression model and numerical simulation to find out the distribution and development rules of the hidden danger of the ice lake and the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, and establishes a susceptibility evaluation model. According to the method, on the regional scale, the iced lake burst susceptibility of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau region is evaluated, eight indexes including the area of a mother glacier, the average gradient of a glacier snow area, the average steady gradient direction of a glacier snow area, the gradient of a icetongue section of an adjacent iced lake, the distance between the icetongue and the iced lake, the area of the iced lake, the width of a moraine dam top and the gradient of the moraine back of dam Shui Po are selected, a logistic regression model is established, the evaluation result shows that 137 iced lakes with low incidence in the iced lake burst hidden danger, 171 iced lakes with medium incidence and 61 iced lakes with high incidence are displayed, and the evaluation result is analyzed and tested. The method analyzes the susceptibility of ice lake burst in a large area, the influence of avalanche is only considered by the induction factors of the ice lake burst, avalanche volume is not considered, important and common induction factors of landslide and rock burst are ignored, and particularly important influence factors of a topside and the like are not considered. The Chinese patent application publication No. CN114282766A, publication No. 2022, 04 month 05 discloses a method for judging the liability of the burst of the tillite lake without the buried tillite dam, the basic parameters of the tillite lake are determined and standardized, the comprehensive liability judging factor of the tillite lake is calculated, and the liability is judged by the comprehensive liability judging factor of the tillite lake. The basic parameters comprise a mother glacier slope direction, a dangerous ice body slope direction, a water slope gradient of a tillite dike, a dangerous ice body slope of a back edge of a glacier lake, a vertical height difference from a center of mass of the dangerous ice body to the icer lake, a movement distance from the center of mass of the dangerous ice body to the icer lake, a width of a transverse crack of the dangerous ice body, a distance from a transverse crack at the rearmost end of the dangerous ice body to the foremost end of the dangerous ice body, a mother glacier area, a tillite lake area, and an altitude difference between the center of mass of the dangerous ice body and a local meteorological station. The invention mainly considers the burst susceptibility of the fringed tillite lake after avalanche, but does not consider the burst susceptibility of the fringed tillite lake caused by rock collapse and landslide, and omits the burst analysis of a considerable proportion of the fringed tillite lake. Meanwhile, the moraine lake burst caused by the water level rise is not considered. The topside is not considered as the most important parameter for the breaking of the tillite lake. The important moraine lake burst cases at home and abroad show that most of moraine lake burst is caused by the fact that the moraine burst or landslide rapidly enters the moraine lake to form huge surge and water level rise. Therefore, in the prior art represented by the above-mentioned document, since the factors affecting the collapse of the tillus and lake are not comprehensively considered, the collapse of the tillus and lake is less susceptible to be judged with low accuracy and poor applicability. Disclosure of Invention In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a method for judging the liability of the burst of the tillite lake and the application thereof, the invention carries out coupling analysis on the volume of the material entering the