CN-122020508-A - Comprehensive evaluation method for deformation safety of concrete dam

CN122020508ACN 122020508 ACN122020508 ACN 122020508ACN-122020508-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation method, which belongs to the technical field of dam safety monitoring and comprises the following steps of 1, determining adverse working conditions, 2, constructing a concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation index system, 3, determining an identification framework of a concrete dam deformation safety state, 4, calculating subjective weights by a G1 method, 5, CRITIC, calculating objective weights, 6, establishing a G1-CRITIC-GT model to obtain subjective and objective combination weights, 7, formulating a deformation monitoring threshold value, dividing a safety state interval, 8, obtaining BPA of a bottom layer evaluation index, 9, weighting BPA of the bottom layer evaluation index, introducing uncertainty, 10, performing fusion diagnosis on the evaluation index, and 11, determining the deformation safety state of the concrete dam. The subjective and objective weight collaborative optimization is realized, the reliability of an evaluation result is improved, the ambiguity and uncertainty of monitoring data are quantized, and the reasonable distribution of conflict evidence and the deep fusion of multi-source information are realized.

Inventors

ZHANG HAICHAO
XIAO CHENG
PENG HAO
LI YONG
CHENG LIN
GUO FAWANG
ZHENG YUANXUN
CHENG RUILIN

Assignees

中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司
西安理工大学
郑州大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20251222

Claims (10)

1. The comprehensive evaluation method for the deformation safety of the concrete dam is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Step 1, selecting a sensor measuring point for deformation safety evaluation according to the arrangement condition of a concrete dam deformation monitoring system, and determining one unfavorable working condition of the concrete dam in the operation period as a basis for subsequent analysis; step 2, selecting deformation safety evaluation indexes according to actual engineering characteristics of the concrete dam and related data, and constructing a concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation index system; step 3, determining the identification frame of the deformation safety state of the concrete dam ; Step 4, calculating subjective weights of various bottom layer evaluation indexes in the concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation index system by adopting a G1 method; step 5, calculating objective weights of various bottom layer evaluation indexes in the concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation index system by adopting CRITIC method; Step 6, establishing a G1-CRITIC-GT combined weighting model to obtain subjective and objective combined weights of various bottom layer evaluation indexes in a concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation index system, and quantifying the importance degree of different bottom layer evaluation indexes in multi-source information fusion; step 7, establishing a statistical model between deformation effect amounts and different loads of each bottom layer evaluation index by adopting a stepwise regression method according to the environmental amounts and deformation monitoring data of the concrete dam, and drawing up each bottom layer evaluation index in the identification frame by means of a confidence interval method A lower deformation monitoring threshold value is used for dividing a safety state interval; step 8, obtaining basic probability distribution of various bottom evaluation indexes, namely BPA, by an interval number method, and taking the basic probability distribution as an original evidence; step 9, weighting BPA of the bottom evaluation index by using the subjective and objective combination weight calculated in the step 6, and in an identification framework Uncertainty allocation potential information conflict is introduced; step 10, performing fusion diagnosis on deformation evaluation indexes of the concrete dam through an improved D-S evidence theory, and realizing layer-by-layer fusion of multisource deformation monitoring information; And 11, determining the deformation safety state of the concrete dam based on the principle of maximum trust.
2. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein the identification frame in the step 3 Consists of five safety states and one uncertainty state, namely = { normal, basically normal, slightly abnormal, severely abnormal, malignant abnormality, uncertainty }.
3. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein the step 4 comprises the following steps: Step 4.1, inviting a plurality of experts to sort various bottom evaluation indexes according to the importance degree from high to low according to own experience and subjective judgment, and supposing that one type of bottom evaluation indexes comprises n indexes in total, wherein the n indexes are respectively The expert is sequenced to obtain the evaluation index sequence relation as follows ; Step 4.2, scoring the relative importance degree of adjacent indexes by a plurality of experts, and for any two adjacent indexes And Expert-assigned relative importance ratio Expressed as: (1), wherein: , The larger the value, the more index is represented Comparative index The greater the importance of (2); step 4.3, because of differences among professional backgrounds, engineering experiences and authority of different experts, comprehensively considering the academic, the title, the working age and the familiarity of the field of each expert, establishing expert information evaluation rules, and scoring each expert; Step 4.4, normalizing the total score of each expert, and distributing weights for each expert; step 4.5, sequentially and respectively obtaining the subjective weight of each expert on the bottom layer evaluation index according to the formula (2) and the formula (3) by the G1 method ; (2), (3), Wherein, the And (2) and ; And 4.6, weighting the subjective weights of the G1 methods of the different experts in the step 4.5 by adopting the expert weights in the step 4.4, wherein the sum of the subjective weights of the same bottom evaluation index weighted by a plurality of experts is the final subjective weight of the bottom evaluation index.
4. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein the step 5 comprises the following steps: step 5.1, setting n samples to be evaluated and p evaluation indexes to form an original index data matrix : (4), In the formula, A value representing the i-th sample at the j-th evaluation index; step 5.2, for the original index data matrix Performing dimensionless treatment to construct a standardized matrix ; Step 5.3, calculating a standardized matrix by Standard deviation of (2) To determine the fluctuation between the evaluation indexes, (5), (6), In the formula, The data mean value of the j-th evaluation index; Step 5.4, adopting the correlation coefficient between the ith evaluation index and the jth evaluation index To measure the conflict between the evaluation indexes ; (7), (8), Step 5.5 according to the volatility Conflict character Calculating information bearing capacity ; (9), Step 5.6, the specific weight of the information amount of the j-th evaluation index to the total information amount is used as the objective weight of the evaluation index , (10), And 5.7, sequentially obtaining CRITIC-method objective weights of various bottom layer evaluation indexes.
5. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein the step 6 comprises the following steps: Step 6.1, calculating L weight vectors by using L different weighting methods, wherein each weight vector is expressed as: (11), In the formula, N is the number of evaluation indexes. Step 6.2, recording any linear combination of the L vectors as follows: (12), In the formula, The linear combination coefficient of the weight obtained by the kth weighting method, Is a certain possible weight vector; step 6.3, optimizing the linear combination coefficient of each index by using the idea of game theory to make And Minimizing the dispersion between: (13), And 6.4, solving an equivalent linear equation set to obtain an optimal linear combination coefficient vector: (14), step 6.5, for the optimal linear combination coefficient vector Performing normalization operation to obtain normalized combined coefficient Corresponding combined weighting vector : (15), (16)。
6. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein the step 8 comprises the following steps: step 8.1, determining the actual measurement value of each bottom layer evaluation index under the adverse working condition determined in the step 1, constructing a section number model corresponding to the actual measurement value, and recording as ; Step 8.2, based on the bottom layer evaluation indexes obtained in the step 7, in the identification framework Lower safety state interval And section number model in step 8.1 Calculating the distance between two interval numbers ; Step 8.3, based on the distance between the two interval numbers in step 8.2 Calculating the similarity between the interval numbers ; And 8.4, normalizing the similarity result among the intermediate numbers in the step 8.3 to generate BPA of each bottom layer evaluation index.
7. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 6, wherein the distance between two sections in the step 8.2 is The following calculations were performed: (17), similarity between the numbers in step 8.3 The following calculations were performed: (18) in the support coefficient Generally, 5 is taken.
8. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein the step 9 comprises the following steps: Step 9.1, set up the Individual evidence body in recognition framework The BPA function in is The corresponding focal elements are respectively And (3) the BPA function weighted by the subjective and objective combination weights calculated in the step (6) is expressed as follows: (19) Step 9.2, after weight assignment according to step 9.1, the sum of BPA of each evidence is no longer 1, thus in the recognition framework The uncertainty is added, and the evidence is allocated to BPA with uncertainty as follows: (20) Step 9.3, thereby obtaining the The bottom evaluation indexes are in the identification framework The following BPA are respectively 、、、、、。
9. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein said step 10 comprises the steps of: step 10.1, fusing the BPA weighted by the bottom layer evaluation indexes obtained in the step 9 to obtain the BPA distribution of the top evaluation indexes to which the BPA distribution belongs, wherein the BPA functions weighted by the two bottom layer evaluation indexes are respectively m1 and m2, and the corresponding focal elements are respectively And The Dempster synthesis rule is expressed as follows: (21) in the formula, K is used for measuring the conflict degree between evidences, and the conflict coefficient K is defined as: (22) step 10.2, based on the BPA distribution of the upper evaluation index to which the bottom evaluation index belongs in step 10.1, fusing the BPA distribution by adopting a Dempster synthesis rule; Step 10.3, repeating the step 10.2 until the fusion obtains the identification framework BPA distribution for the concrete dam deformation safety state is as follows.
10. The method for comprehensively evaluating deformation safety of a concrete dam according to claim 1, wherein the bottom layer evaluation index is a monitoring point, and the top evaluation index is a monitoring instrument.

Description

Comprehensive evaluation method for deformation safety of concrete dam Technical Field The invention relates to a comprehensive evaluation method for deformation safety of a concrete dam, and belongs to the technical field of dam safety monitoring. Background The concrete dam deformation monitoring system is generally integrated with a plurality of sensors such as a tension lead, a static level, a positive and negative vertical line, a sight line and the like, and has the characteristics of wide acquisition range, multiple acquisition means, high acquisition frequency and the like, so that the acquired deformation monitoring data are more and more complex. The multisource heterogeneous data may have complementary and redundant relation, and contradiction may occur, so that great challenges are brought to comprehensive evaluation of concrete dam deformation safety. In addition, the deformation monitoring environment of the concrete dam is extremely complex, and the sensor is easily interfered by various factors in the data acquisition process, so that the deformation monitoring data of the concrete dam contains stronger ambiguity and uncertainty. When the comprehensive deformation safety evaluation is carried out on the concrete dam, the uncertainty is expressed as that the safety state information provided by different sensors in the same time period can have obvious differences or even conflicts, and how to accurately treat the uncertainty becomes a key technical problem in the comprehensive deformation safety evaluation of the concrete dam. Aiming at the concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation, related scholars have proposed a plurality of analysis methods, mainly comprising finite element calculation, multi-attribute decision, artificial neural network, bayesian framework and the like, which have certain effects in practical application, but have inherent defects that (1) uncertainty treatment is poor, and most traditional methods are difficult to treat both random uncertainty and ambiguity uncertainty simultaneously. For example, finite element calculation depends on an accurate physical model and parameters, uncertainty in actual monitoring data is difficult to fully reflect, the Bayesian method needs prior probability distribution, and the problem of strong subjectivity in actual application often exists. (2) The problem of information conflict is difficult to resolve, and when high conflict exists among multi-source monitoring information, the traditional method lacks an effective conflict resolution mechanism. For example, artificial neural network methods often appear as "black box" operations when dealing with conflicting information, lacking in interpretability. (3) Over-reliance on sample number many machine learning methods require a large number of labeled samples to train, while dam security events, particularly dangerous cases, are relatively rare, resulting in insufficient model generalization ability. In view of the foregoing, in order to improve the reliability and accuracy of the comprehensive evaluation of concrete dam deformation safety, a multi-source information fusion method capable of effectively characterizing uncertain information and fusing fuzzy uncertain monitoring data without relying on priori knowledge is needed. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation method for deformation safety of a concrete dam, which constructs a conflict evidence identification and weighting mechanism based on G1-CRITIC-GT, designs a multi-level evidence fusion flow based on an improved D-S evidence theory, can effectively process high conflict evidence, and fuses multi-source monitoring information on the basis, thereby realizing accurate and reliable diagnosis of the deformation safety state of the concrete dam and providing technical support for the safe operation of the concrete dam. The invention is realized by the following technical scheme: a concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation method comprises the following steps: Step 1, selecting a sensor measuring point for deformation safety evaluation according to the arrangement condition of a concrete dam deformation monitoring system, and determining one unfavorable working condition of the concrete dam in the operation period as a basis for subsequent analysis; step 2, selecting deformation safety evaluation indexes according to actual engineering characteristics of the concrete dam and related data, and constructing a concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation index system; step 3, determining the identification frame of the deformation safety state of the concrete dam ; Step 4, calculating subjective weights of various bottom layer evaluation indexes in the concrete dam deformation safety comprehensive evaluation index system by adopting a G1 method; step 5, calculating objective weights of various bottom layer evaluation indexes in the concrete dam deforma