CN-122021032-A - Regional rainfall type landslide dynamic risk assessment system and method thereof

CN122021032ACN 122021032 ACN122021032 ACN 122021032ACN-122021032-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment system and a regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method, wherein the regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment system comprises the steps of obtaining geological structure parameters of a region to be assessed based on a iSquares numerical platform, constructing a geological model, configuring a hydrologic model, a stability model and a dynamics simulation model with parameter association relations, generating an integrated coupling calculation frame, assessing the possibility of a landslide on a slope in a continuous detection period according to set logic based on rainfall parameters of a custom rainfall mode, calculating rainfall infiltration and runoff paths by the hydrologic model, calculating safety coefficients by the stability model, judging a destabilization state, calculating landslide parameters by the dynamics model during destabilization, simulating a motion track, and converging calculation results to the geological model to realize parameter dynamic update. The landslide hazard real-time accurate assessment is realized through multi-model coupling and dynamic parameter updating, the problems of poor coupling and insufficient timeliness of the traditional assessment method are solved, and the landslide hazard early warning method is suitable for landslide hazard early warning of various areas.

Inventors

WANG JIAJIA
LIU LEI
LIANG XIN
XIAO LILI
ZHOU KAI
GAO RUIZE
Cai Zongrun
SUN ZHAOLONG

Assignees

西安智方信息科技有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260203

Claims (10)

1. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: Obtaining geological structure parameters of an area to be researched based on a iSquares numerical platform (1) to construct a geological model, configuring a hydrological model, a stability model and a dynamics simulation model which have parameter association relations among the geological model to generate an integrated coupling calculation frame based on the geological model, and evaluating the possibility of landslide occurrence of any slope of the area to be researched in a plurality of continuous detection periods according to set operation analysis logic, wherein the set operation analysis logic is as follows: The hydrologic model calculates a slope rainfall infiltration result and a surface runoff path in the geological model in real time in a current detection period; The stability model calculates a slope stability safety coefficient according to a slope rainfall infiltration result and a surface runoff path which are calculated by the hydrologic model, and judges whether the slope is unstable or not based on a set safety threshold and the calculated slope stability safety coefficient; When the stability safety coefficient of the slope body is smaller than a set safety threshold, judging that the slope body is unstable, calculating the speed and the thickness of the slope body by the dynamic simulation model based on the stability safety coefficient of the slope body output by the stability model, and simulating and calculating the sliding motion track of the corresponding slope body based on the calculated speed and thickness of the slope body; And respectively aggregating the slope rainfall infiltration result, the surface runoff path, the slope stability safety coefficient and the landslide movement track into the geological model, and dynamically updating the geological structure parameters of the geological model to realize the landslide dynamic risk assessment analysis process.
2. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the geological model construction method specifically comprises the following steps: And acquiring geological structure parameters of the region to be researched based on the iSquares numerical platform (1) to construct a digital elevation model, and configuring a thickness grid in the digital elevation model according to the soil thickness and the slope body forming track of the region to be researched to obtain the geological model.
3. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein the thickness grid is formed by splicing a plurality of square grids with adjustable thickness values and flow characteristics into a plurality of continuously and/or intermittently arranged block-shaped hierarchical structures.
4. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the slope rainfall infiltration result and the surface runoff path in the geological model in real time in the current detection period by the hydrologic model specifically comprises the following steps: obtaining the permeability coefficient, the water content and the matrix suction of any slope in the geological model based on rainfall parameters; When the geological structure of the slope body is identified to belong to the slope body structure with the soil body homogeneous depth exceeding the set standard threshold and without the water barrier boundary, calculating the arrival time of a wetting peak of the slope body, the depth of a saturation region of the total infiltration depth, the pore water pressure, the volume water content and the surface water accumulation thickness by adopting a GA infiltration algorithm; When the geological structure of the slope body is identified to belong to the slope body structure of the built-in water-resisting layer boundary or the soil-rock contact surface, calculating the arrival time of a wetting peak of the slope body, the depth of a saturation region of the total infiltration depth, the pore water pressure, the volume water content and the surface water accumulation thickness by adopting a Richards infiltration algorithm; Calculating a slope rainfall infiltration result according to the arrival time of the wetting peak of the slope body and the depth of the total infiltration depth saturation region; and calculating a surface runoff path according to the pore water pressure, the volume water content and the surface water thickness of the slope body.
5. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method of claim 3, wherein the method for calculating the slope stability safety factor by the stability model according to the slope rainfall infiltration result and the surface runoff path calculated by the hydrologic model specifically comprises the following steps: Determining the depth of a sliding surface of the slope body according to the slope rainfall infiltration result; Calculating the soil body anti-slip force, the soil body sliding force and the stability coefficient of each square grid in the geological structure of the slope according to the surface runoff path; Respectively superposing and accumulating soil anti-slip force R f and soil sliding force T of each square grid in the geological structure of the slope body to calculate a slope body stability safety coefficient F s ; 。
6. the regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method of claim 5, wherein the sliding surface depth of the slope body is set to any one of the total rainwater infiltration depth, the saturation infiltration depth and the earth-rock contact surface.
7. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein when the slope stability safety coefficient is greater than or equal to a set safety threshold, the slope is judged not to be unstable, and then the subsequent time-step rainfall infiltration and stability monitoring is performed until the slope instability occurs or the simulation calculation time of the current detection period is ended.
8. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the dynamic simulation model calculates the landslide speed and thickness of a slope based on the slope stability safety coefficient output by the stability model, and simulates and calculates the landslide motion trail of the corresponding slope based on the calculated landslide speed and thickness, and specifically comprises the following steps: The dynamic simulation model builds a calculation constraint condition according to a volume conservation theory and a momentum conservation theory, and performs volume and linear momentum distribution on a sliding surface of a slope by combining the slope stability safety coefficient so as to update geological structure parameters of the geological model in real time; Calculating the landslide body speed and thickness of the slope body according to the change condition of the geologic structure parameters of the geologic model in unit time; Judging whether the sliding state of the slope body is finished or not based on the set sliding stop speed of the slope body, if the sliding speed of the slope body is smaller than the set sliding stop speed of the slope body, judging that the sliding state of the slope body is finished, calculating the surface layer accumulation form and the accumulation range of the geological model in unit time according to the sliding speed and the thickness of the slope body, and constructing the sliding track of the slope body by utilizing the surface layer accumulation form and the accumulation range of the geological model.
9. The regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method of claim 8, wherein when the calculation time interval in unit time is smaller than the calculation time interval set by the dynamics simulation model, the landslide movement range and the accumulation thickness of each time interval are obtained, and the movement track of the landslide from start to end is simulated based on the landslide movement ranges and the accumulation thicknesses of a plurality of continuous or interval-arranged time intervals.
10. A regional rainfall-type landslide dynamic risk assessment system for assessing the landslide dynamic risk of a region under investigation using the method of any one of claims 1-9, the system comprising: The model generator (2) is configured to acquire geological structure parameters of the region to be researched based on the iSquares numerical platform (1) to construct a geological model, and the geological model outputs corresponding rainfall parameters in a custom rainfall mode; a hydrologic calculation module (3), wherein the hydrologic calculation module (3) is configured to calculate a slope rainfall infiltration result and a surface runoff path in the geological model in real time in a current detection period based on a built-in hydrologic model; A stability calculation module (4), wherein the stability calculation module (4) is configured to calculate a slope stability safety coefficient according to the slope rainfall infiltration result and the surface runoff path calculated by the hydrologic calculation module (3) based on a built-in stability model, The system comprises a destabilization judgment and identification module (5), wherein the destabilization judgment and identification module (5) is configured to judge whether a slope is destabilized or not based on the comparison of a built-in self-defined safety threshold value and a calculated slope stability safety coefficient, and judge that the slope is destabilized when the slope stability safety coefficient is smaller than a set safety threshold value; The landslide dynamics calculation module (6) is configured to calculate the landslide speed and thickness of the landslide according to the slope stability safety coefficient output by the stability calculation module (4) based on a built-in dynamics simulation model, and simulate and calculate the landslide movement track of the corresponding landslide according to the calculated landslide speed and thickness; The landslide hazard analysis and evaluation module (7) is configured to be used for respectively aggregating the slope rainfall infiltration result, the surface runoff path, the slope stability safety coefficient and the landslide movement track into the geological model, dynamically updating the geological structure parameters of the geological model and realizing a landslide dynamic hazard evaluation and analysis process.

Description

Regional rainfall type landslide dynamic risk assessment system and method thereof Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster assessment, in particular to a regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment system and a method thereof, and especially relates to a regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment system and a method thereof coupled with rainfall infiltration-stability-dynamics processes. Background Landslide refers to the natural phenomenon that soil or rock mass on a slope is influenced by river scouring, groundwater movement, rainwater infiltration, earthquakes, manual slope cutting and other factors, and slides downwards along a certain weak surface wholly or dispersedly under the action of gravity. At present, landslide risk assessment methods can be divided into two categories, namely statistical model assessment and numerical model assessment. The statistical model judges the landslide hazard level of a certain area based on the statistical analysis methods such as Bayes, regression analysis and the like, greatly improves the prediction accuracy, but still needs a large amount of landslide historical events as statistical data support, and does not reveal the landslide generation mechanism from the natural science angle, the numerical model is a physical and mechanical process taking the factors such as rainfall, topography characteristics and the like generated by the landslide into consideration from the physical process angle of the landslide, and the landslide generation reduction in the numerical simulation, and the model such as a shallow landslide stability model SHALSTAB, a grid-based transient rainfall infiltration slope stability analysis model TRIGRS and the like have been widely applied. However, the models have high requirements on parameters, partial parameters are not easy to obtain through experiments, a large amount of time is consumed to solve a complex high-order control equation, the calculation time is long, the numerical models based on the physical process which are put into use at present all have the defect of insufficient calculation efficiency, and most of the physical models cannot show real-time dynamic change processes before and after landslide occurrence. In the natural condition, along with the duration of rainfall time, the infiltration depth of rainwater is gradually increased, the stability of a slope is changed, when the stability of the slope is smaller than a certain critical value, the slope is instable and slides, meanwhile, the soil infiltration depth and the stability of a stabilized slope are continuously changed along with the rainfall time, the current physical model is not completely reacted in a natural process, and most models independently study three processes of rainfall infiltration, slope stability and instable slope dynamics, although the calculation precision and efficiency are ensured to a certain extent, the integral analysis among the three processes is not considered, the coupling degree of the model is low, and the whole process linkage analysis capability is insufficient. Disclosure of Invention In view of the above, the present invention is directed to a regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment system and a method thereof, so as to solve the technical problems mentioned in the prior art. A regional rainfall landslide dynamic risk assessment method, comprising the following steps: Obtaining geological structure parameters of an area to be researched based on iSquares a numerical platform to construct a geological model, configuring a hydrological model, a stability model and a dynamics simulation model which have parameter association relations among the geological model to generate an integrated coupling calculation frame based on the geological model, and evaluating the possibility of landslide of any slope of the area to be researched in a plurality of continuous detection periods according to set operational analysis logic, wherein the set operational analysis logic is as follows: The hydrologic model calculates a slope rainfall infiltration result and a surface runoff path in the geological model in real time in a current detection period; The stability model calculates a slope stability safety coefficient according to a slope rainfall infiltration result and a surface runoff path which are calculated by the hydrologic model, and judges whether the slope is unstable or not based on a set safety threshold and the calculated slope stability safety coefficient; When the stability safety coefficient of the slope body is smaller than a set safety threshold, judging that the slope body is unstable, calculating the speed and the thickness of the slope body by the dynamic simulation model based on the stability safety coefficient of the slope body output by the stability model, and simulating and calculating the sliding motion track of the corresponding slope body based on