CN-122021178-A - Method, system, equipment and medium for predicting sudden instability risk of highway side slope

CN122021178ACN 122021178 ACN122021178 ACN 122021178ACN-122021178-A

Abstract

The application relates to a method, a system, equipment and a medium for predicting sudden instability risk of a highway side slope. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a smoothed internal pressure value and a surface wind thrust value through obtaining wind speed and direction real-time data and combining the stress characteristics of a side slope rock-soil body and wind load mechanism conversion. The load parameters are input into a slope finite element numerical simulation model, the slope stability safety coefficient and the comprehensive disturbance intensity are obtained through operation, the slope stability safety coefficient and the comprehensive disturbance intensity are compared through a preset critical threshold value, the slope instability high risk state is judged, and related parameters are synchronously recorded to form a high risk event record item. And acquiring real-time data of a stress field and a displacement field in a high risk state, fitting a time sequence change trend of the data, combining a high risk event record entry, predicting a destabilization critical moment through trend extrapolation and critical feature matching, calculating destabilization residual time and generating a real-time early warning instruction. The method can improve early warning accuracy and reliability, improve highway operation safety and reduce disaster loss.

Inventors

ZHAO MEI
ZHANG DONG
SUN BOWEI
LI CHUANHONG
ZHAO SEN

Assignees

交通运输部公路科学研究所

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260213

Claims (9)

1. A method for predicting risk of sudden instability of a side slope of a highway, the method comprising: Acquiring wind speed and wind direction real-time data, and performing time sequence filtering processing and instantaneous wind speed extraction on the wind speed and wind direction real-time data to obtain a smoothed internal pressure value and a surface wind power thrust value; based on the internal pressure value and the surface wind thrust value, obtaining a slope stability safety coefficient and comprehensive disturbance intensity through finite element numerical simulation; Performing association mapping on the comprehensive disturbance intensity and the slope stability safety coefficient, and judging the instability high risk state of the current slope through threshold comparison to obtain a slope instability high risk event record item; And based on the stress field and displacement field change trend in the destabilizing high-risk state, predicting the critical moment of the side slope destabilization by combining the event record entry, and calculating the residual time of the side slope destabilization to obtain a side slope destabilization real-time early warning instruction.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining the slope stability safety factor and the integrated disturbance intensity by finite element numerical simulation based on the internal pressure value and the surface wind thrust value comprises: Constructing a normalized multisource input dataset from the internal pressure values and the surface wind thrust values; Adopting a finite element numerical simulation method, taking the multisource input data set as a load input condition, taking the internal pressure value as a volume force and the surface wind power thrust value as a surface load, and carrying out numerical calculation on a slope to obtain slope stress field distribution data and displacement field distribution data; coupling and integrating the slope stress field distribution data and the displacement field distribution data by adopting a data fusion technology, extracting the ratio of shear stress to shear strength at the potential sliding surface of the slope and the displacement increment of key points of the surface of the slope, and calculating and determining the stability and safety coefficient of the slope; And based on the slope stability safety coefficient and the coupling superposition effect of the internal pressure value and the surface wind power thrust value, calculating through a preset coupling response model to obtain the comprehensive disturbance intensity.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the integrated disturbance intensity is calculated by the following formula: Wherein, the The intensity of the integrated disturbance is indicated, Coupling coefficient representing internal pressure and surface wind thrust and value range According to the slope lithology calibration, Representing the correction coefficient of the safety coefficient and the value range According to the geological condition calibration of the slope engineering, Represents the normalized internal pressure value of the side slope, Represents the standardized wind thrust value of the side slope surface, The safety coefficient of the side slope stability is represented, , , In the case of a critical state of instability, Representing the shear stress at the potential sliding surface of the side slope, Indicating the shear strength at the potential sliding surface of the side slope, Comprehensive correction coefficient representing internal pressure and wind load and value range According to the rock-soil body of the side slope the calibration and representation of the mechanical parameters are carried out, Representing the displacement increment influence coefficient and the value range According to the characteristics of the potential sliding surface of the side slope, Representing the displacement increment of the key point of the side slope surface.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the performing the association mapping between the integrated disturbance intensity and the slope stability safety coefficient, and determining the destabilizing high risk state of the current slope through threshold comparison, to obtain a slope destabilizing high risk event record entry includes: constructing a double-parameter coupling judgment model based on the slope stability safety coefficient and the comprehensive disturbance intensity; Preset safety critical threshold Critical threshold of disturbance Collaborative determination coefficient Collaborative threshold ; Wherein, the 、 Through the calibration of the geological parameters of the slope engineering and the historical instability data, 、 Calibrating according to the mechanical characteristics of the side slope rock-soil body; The safety coefficients are respectively matched with the dual-parameter coupling judgment model And the safety critical threshold The integrated disturbance intensity And the disturbance critical threshold value Comparing, judging and determining Whether or not to be less than or equal to And is also provided with Whether or not it is greater than or equal to ; If the determination result is And is also provided with Calculating a cooperative judgment value through the dual-parameter coupling judgment model; the calculation formula of the cooperative judgment value is that the cooperative judgment value D/K, Representing a preset cooperative judgment coefficient; the calculated cooperative determination value and a preset cooperative threshold value are used for determining the cooperative determination value Comparing to determine whether the cooperative determination value is greater than or equal to ; If the cooperative determination value is Judging that the side slope is in a high risk state of instability at present, and outputting a unique corresponding identification of the high risk state of instability of the side slope; Extracting the spatial position coordinates and the monitoring time stamp of the corresponding slope monitoring sensor layout for the slope instability high risk state identifier; Carrying out association binding and standardized packaging on the space position coordinates, the monitoring time stamp and the cooperative determination value to form a structured slope instability high risk event record item; the event record entry includes a unique identification, location information, time information, and a risk quantification indicator.
5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the slope destabilization residual time based on the stress field and displacement field variation trend in the destabilization high risk state and the event record entry to predict the slope destabilization critical time to obtain the slope destabilization real-time early warning command includes: acquiring stress field real-time data and displacement field data in the destabilization high risk state; The displacement field data and the stress field real-time data are synchronous monitoring data; Based on the stress field real-time data and displacement field data, respectively fitting by adopting a time sequence analysis algorithm to obtain a stress field time sequence change trend and a displacement field time sequence change trend; Firstly adopting a linear trend extrapolation algorithm to extend the time period of the stress field time sequence change trend and the displacement field time sequence change trend in the future in combination with the established event record entry to obtain a stress and displacement prediction sequence; Comparing the real-time characteristic parameters in the stress and displacement prediction sequence with a critical threshold value in the event record item when the historical high-risk working condition is converted into instability one by one, and determining the corresponding moment as a slope instability critical moment when the characteristic parameters at a certain moment reach the critical threshold value simultaneously and the matching degree exceeds a preset matching threshold value; comparing the time difference between the slope instability critical moment and the current monitoring moment with a preset instability early-warning time threshold value, and if the time difference exceeds the instability early-warning time threshold value, calculating the residual time of slope instability; and extracting stress displacement characteristic parameters corresponding to the residual time of the slope instability, the critical time of the slope instability and the critical time of the instability, packaging according to a preset structured data format, and generating a slope instability real-time early warning instruction after completing the integrity verification.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the slope destabilization residual time is calculated by the following equation: Wherein, the The residual time of the slope instability is represented, Representing critical moment of slope instability, wherein the critical moment is that characteristic parameters in a stress and displacement prediction sequence reach critical threshold values at the same time and the actual matching degree Exceeding a preset matching threshold The corresponding time stamp is used to determine the time stamp, The current monitoring moment of the side slope is represented, The actual matching degree of the characteristic parameters of the stress and displacement prediction sequences and the historical critical threshold value in the slope instability high risk event record entry is obtained by similarity weighted calculation after the characteristic parameters are compared one by one, Representing a preset matching threshold value and a value range And calibrating according to the geological conditions of the slope engineering and the historical high-risk event data.
7. A highway slope burst instability risk prediction system, the system comprising: The wind field data processing module is used for acquiring wind speed and wind direction real-time data, performing time sequence filtering processing and instantaneous wind speed extraction on the wind speed and wind direction real-time data, and obtaining a smoothed internal pressure value and a surface wind power thrust value; The finite element simulation module is used for obtaining a slope stability safety coefficient and comprehensive disturbance intensity through finite element numerical simulation based on the internal pressure value and the surface wind power thrust value; The destabilization risk judging module is used for carrying out association mapping on the comprehensive disturbance intensity and the slope stability safety coefficient, judging the destabilization high risk state of the current slope through threshold comparison, and obtaining a slope destabilization high risk event record item; And the instability early warning generation module is used for predicting the critical moment of slope instability based on the change trend of the stress field and the displacement field in the instability high risk state and combining the event record entry to calculate the residual time of slope instability so as to obtain a slope instability real-time early warning instruction.
8. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor implements the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 7 when the computer program is executed.
9. A computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program, when being executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 7.

Description

Method, system, equipment and medium for predicting sudden instability risk of highway side slope Technical Field The invention belongs to the technical field of disaster prevention and control, and particularly relates to a method, a system, equipment and a medium for predicting sudden instability risk of a highway side slope. Background The highway side slope is used as a key rock-soil structure in construction and operation of a highway network, and particularly the mountain highway side slope is influenced by natural factors such as the terrain geological condition, wind field power load and the like, sudden unsteady geological disasters are extremely easy to occur, road damage and traffic interruption are caused, safety accidents such as vehicle overturning and casualties are easy to be caused, and the highway operation safety and the life and property safety along the line are seriously threatened. At present, aiming at the prediction method of the instability risk of the side slope of the highway, analysis of single geomechanical parameters or local environmental factors is emphasized in multiple ways, the coupling effect of internal pressure, surface wind thrust and side slope rock-soil mass caused by wind field load is not considered enough, the existing risk judgment mostly adopts a static threshold comparison method, the dynamic tracking of the instability evolution process of the side slope is lacked, the instability critical moment and the instability residual time are difficult to predict accurately, the generation of early warning instructions is lacked in quantification basis, and the real-time performance and the accuracy are difficult to adapt to the prevention and control requirements of the sudden instability of the side slope of the highway. Disclosure of Invention Accordingly, it is necessary to provide a method, a system, a device and a medium for predicting sudden instability risk of a highway slope, which can effectively improve the safety of operation of the highway slope and reduce the loss caused by instability disasters. In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for predicting risk of sudden instability of a highway side slope, including: And acquiring wind speed and wind direction real-time data, and performing time sequence filtering processing and instantaneous wind speed extraction on the wind speed and wind direction real-time data to obtain a smoothed internal pressure value and a surface wind power thrust value. Based on the internal pressure value and the surface wind thrust value, the slope stability safety coefficient and the comprehensive disturbance intensity are obtained through finite element numerical simulation. And performing association mapping on the comprehensive disturbance intensity and the slope stability safety coefficient, and judging the instability high risk state of the current slope through threshold comparison to obtain a slope instability high risk event record item. And based on the change trend of the stress field and the displacement field in the unstability high-risk state, predicting the critical moment of slope unstability according to the event record entry, and calculating the residual time of slope unstability to obtain a slope unstability real-time early warning instruction. In one embodiment, the slope stability safety factor and the integrated disturbance intensity are obtained through finite element numerical simulation based on the internal pressure value and the surface wind thrust value, and the method comprises the following steps: A normalized multisource input dataset is constructed from the internal pressure values and the surface wind thrust values. And (3) adopting a finite element numerical simulation method, taking a multisource input data set as a load input condition, taking an internal pressure value as a volume force and a surface wind power thrust value as a surface load, and carrying out numerical calculation on a side slope to obtain side slope stress field distribution data and displacement field distribution data. And (3) coupling and integrating the slope stress field distribution data and the displacement field distribution data by adopting a data fusion technology, extracting the ratio of shear stress to shear strength at the potential sliding surface of the slope and the displacement increment of key points on the surface of the slope, and calculating and determining the stability and safety coefficient of the slope. Based on the coupling superposition effect of the slope stability safety coefficient and the internal pressure value and the surface wind power thrust value, the comprehensive disturbance intensity is calculated through a preset coupling response model. In one embodiment, the integrated disturbance intensity is calculated by the following formula: Wherein, the The intensity of the integrated disturbance is indicated,Coupling coefficient representing internal pressure and surface