CN-122021251-A - Method, system, equipment and storage medium for evaluating lightning stroke performance of power transmission line based on Monte Carlo method

CN122021251ACN 122021251 ACN122021251 ACN 122021251ACN-122021251-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a method, a system, equipment and a storage medium for evaluating lightning stroke performance of a power transmission line based on a Monte Carlo method, which relate to the technical field of lightning protection and Monte Carlo simulation optimization of the power transmission line, and comprise the following steps: establishing a line lightning counterattack simulation model in electromagnetic transient software, configuring a Monte Carlo random sampling program in numerical software according to lightning current statistical distribution, extracting lightning current peak value driving simulation by using the program, judging an insulator flashover result of each simulation by applying a destructive effect criterion, accumulating calculation results in real time, synchronously calculating counterattack performance parameters and statistical monitoring parameters, and automatically stopping simulation and outputting a final evaluation result when the monitoring parameters simultaneously meet a preset convergence threshold value; according to the invention, the lightning counterattack simulation calculated amount is reduced, the lightning protection design efficiency of the medium-high voltage transmission line is obviously improved on the premise of ensuring the precision, and the safe and economic operation of the power grid is assisted.

Inventors

ZHANG ZHONGJING
LI XINGJIE
Yang Anqian
WANG YANG
CAI YONGXIANG

Assignees

贵州电网有限责任公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20251226

Claims (10)

1. A method for evaluating lightning stroke performance of a power transmission line based on a Monte Carlo method is characterized by comprising the following steps: Based on the electrical and structural parameters of the target transmission line, a lightning counterattack simulation model is established in electromagnetic transient simulation software; Based on a lightning counterattack simulation model, following lightning current statistical distribution, configuring a Monte Carlo sampling program capable of generating random lightning current peaks in numerical software; using a lightning current peak value driving simulation model extracted by a Monte Carlo sampling program to carry out single calculation, and applying a destructive effect criterion to judge whether the insulator is subjected to counterattack flashover; summarizing all the completed simulation results, and calculating lightning performance parameters and statistical monitoring parameters for evaluating convergence in real time; when all the statistic monitoring parameters meet the preset convergence threshold value at the same time, automatically terminating simulation and outputting a final performance evaluation result.
2. The method for evaluating the lightning stroke performance of the power transmission line based on the Monte Carlo method according to claim 1, wherein the Monte Carlo sampling program capable of generating random lightning current peaks is configured in numerical software based on a lightning counterattack simulation model and following the lightning current statistical distribution, and comprises the following steps: establishing a control program for carrying out data interaction with an electromagnetic transient simulation model, and setting a lightning current peak value of first striking back as a key random input variable; And a cumulative probability function which accords with the statistical rule of the lightning discharge and has the piecewise variation characteristic is adopted as a theoretical distribution model of random variables.
3. The method for evaluating the lightning stroke performance of the power transmission line based on the monte carlo method according to claim 2, wherein the monte carlo sampling procedure capable of generating random lightning current peaks is configured in numerical software based on a lightning counterattack simulation model and following the lightning current statistical distribution, and further comprises: in the control program, a series of random lightning current peak sequences obeying statistical distribution are generated by a corresponding numerical conversion method according to mathematical characteristics of a theoretical distribution model.
4. A method for evaluating lightning strike performance of a power transmission line based on a monte carlo method according to claim 3, wherein the step of performing a single calculation by using a lightning current peak driving simulation model extracted by a monte carlo sampling program and determining whether a counterattack flashover occurs on an insulator by applying a destruction effect criterion comprises: And taking each value in the random lightning current peak value sequence as the input of a lightning impulse excitation source model in sequence, and driving a complete system simulation model to execute single electromagnetic transient calculation so as to obtain overvoltage response waveforms at two ends of the corresponding insulator string.
5. The method for evaluating the lightning stroke performance of a power transmission line based on the monte carlo method according to claim 4, wherein the step of performing a single calculation by using a lightning current peak driving simulation model extracted by a monte carlo sampling program and applying a destructive effect criterion to judge whether the insulator is subjected to a counterattack flashover further comprises: the method comprises the steps of applying a destructive effect criterion to an overvoltage response waveform to analyze, setting a voltage threshold value of initial discharge, identifying all time intervals when the overvoltage exceeds the voltage threshold value, carrying out time integration on a voltage part exceeding the threshold value in the identified time intervals, and comparing the calculated integral value with a preset reference energy value representing the tolerance capacity of an insulating medium; If the integral value exceeds the reference energy value, the insulator string is judged to have the impact flashover in the current simulation, otherwise, the insulator string is judged to have no flashover.
6. The method for evaluating lightning stroke performance of a power transmission line based on the monte carlo method according to claim 5, wherein the step of summarizing all the completed simulation results, calculating the lightning performance parameter and the statistical monitoring parameter for evaluating convergence in real time comprises: After each simulation iteration is completed, recording the judging result and the corresponding random lightning current peak value together, and synchronously updating and calculating two types of evaluation parameters based on all completed iteration result sets; The first category is a lightning performance parameter for representing the lightning protection performance of the line, and comprises the steps of taking the minimum value determined from all lightning current peaks which cause flashover as a critical current according to the iteration result of which the judgment result is that the flashover occurs, and counting the proportion of the lightning current peaks which exceed the critical current in the total iteration times as the counterattack flashover probability.
7. The method for evaluating lightning stroke performance of a power transmission line based on the monte carlo method according to claim 6, wherein the step of summarizing all the completed simulation results, calculating the lightning performance parameter and the statistical monitoring parameter for evaluating the convergence in real time further comprises: The second category is statistical monitoring parameters for quantifying convergence states in the simulation process, wherein the statistical monitoring parameters comprise a discrete coefficient obtained by comparing the difference between the statistical distribution of random lightning current peak sequences and the probability distribution of theoretical lightning parameters under a plurality of preset probability levels, calculating probability distribution errors and calculating fluctuation degree of the counterattack flashover probability in the statistical sampling process.
8. A transmission line lightning strike performance evaluation system based on the monte carlo method, applying the method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, comprising: The electromagnetic transient simulation modeling module is used for establishing a lightning counterattack simulation model in electromagnetic transient simulation software based on the electrical and structural parameters of the target transmission line; the random sampling program configuration module is used for configuring a Monte Carlo sampling program capable of generating random lightning current peaks in numerical software based on the lightning counterattack simulation model and following the lightning current statistical distribution; the destructive effect criterion simulation module is used for performing single calculation by using a lightning current peak value driving simulation model extracted by a Monte Carlo sampling program, and judging whether the insulator is subjected to counterattack flashover by applying the destructive effect criterion; the parameter convergence monitoring module is used for summarizing all the completed simulation results, and calculating lightning performance parameters and statistical monitoring parameters for evaluating convergence in real time; and the intelligent termination output module is used for automatically terminating simulation and outputting a final performance evaluation result when all the statistical monitoring parameters simultaneously meet a preset convergence threshold.
9. An electronic device, comprising: A memory and a processor; The memory is for storing computer executable instructions, the processor being for executing the computer executable instructions which when executed by the processor implement the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that it stores computer-executable instructions which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.

Description

Method, system, equipment and storage medium for evaluating lightning stroke performance of power transmission line based on Monte Carlo method Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of lightning protection and Monte Carlo simulation optimization of power transmission lines, in particular to a method, a system, equipment and a storage medium for evaluating lightning stroke performance of power transmission lines based on a Monte Carlo method. Background The lightning outage rate of the transmission line is a key index for the design and operation and maintenance of the power engineering, wherein counterattack is a main cause of line tripping in high and medium resistivity soil areas. Because the lightning parameters, the line parameters and the environmental conditions have randomness, the Monte Carlo method is widely applied to lightning counterattack performance evaluation of the power transmission line, and a large number of simulations are carried out through random sampling parameters so as to obtain statistical results. However, the conventional Monte Carlo simulation lacks an explicit stopping criterion, and in order to ensure convergence of the result, tens of thousands to tens of millions of iterations are generally required, which results in long calculation period, large hardware resource consumption and severely limits simulation efficiency. Some existing researches try to adopt a single parameter (such as a distribution error or a result dispersion) as a stopping basis, but the result precision and the iteration efficiency are not considered, and the problems of inaccurate convergence judgment or large amount of iteration are still required. Disclosure of Invention In view of the above problems, the present invention provides a method, a system, a device and a storage medium for evaluating lightning strike performance of a power transmission line based on the monte carlo method. Therefore, the invention solves the technical problems of establishing a scientific and definite stopping criterion, reducing the iteration times to the maximum extent and reducing the calculation load on the premise of ensuring the reliability of the simulation result. In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides the following technical scheme: in a first aspect, the invention provides a method for evaluating lightning stroke performance of a transmission line based on a Monte Carlo method, which comprises the following steps: Based on the electrical and structural parameters of the target transmission line, a lightning counterattack simulation model is established in electromagnetic transient simulation software; Based on a lightning counterattack simulation model, following lightning current statistical distribution, configuring a Monte Carlo sampling program capable of generating random lightning current peaks in numerical software; using a lightning current peak value driving simulation model extracted by a Monte Carlo sampling program to carry out single calculation, and applying a destructive effect criterion to judge whether the insulator is subjected to counterattack flashover; summarizing all the completed simulation results, and calculating lightning performance parameters and statistical monitoring parameters for evaluating convergence in real time; when all the statistic monitoring parameters meet the preset convergence threshold value at the same time, automatically terminating simulation and outputting a final performance evaluation result. As a preferred scheme of the method for evaluating the lightning stroke performance of the transmission line based on the monte carlo method, the method comprises the following steps: the Monte Carlo sampling program capable of generating random lightning current peaks is configured in numerical software based on the lightning counterattack simulation model and following the lightning current statistical distribution, and comprises the following steps: establishing a control program for carrying out data interaction with an electromagnetic transient simulation model, and setting a lightning current peak value of first striking back as a key random input variable; And a cumulative probability function which accords with the statistical rule of the lightning discharge and has the piecewise variation characteristic is adopted as a theoretical distribution model of random variables. As a preferred scheme of the method for evaluating the lightning stroke performance of the transmission line based on the monte carlo method, the method comprises the following steps: the Monte Carlo sampling program capable of generating random lightning current peaks is configured in numerical software based on the lightning counterattack simulation model and following the lightning current statistical distribution, and the Monte Carlo sampling program further comprises the following steps: in the control program, a series of random lightning current