CN-122022123-A - Aviation equipment task reliability assessment method based on priori information

CN122022123ACN 122022123 ACN122022123 ACN 122022123ACN-122022123-A

Abstract

The application provides an aviation equipment task reliability assessment method based on priori information, which comprises the steps of determining minimum sample requirements of a task reliability test under different failure samples according to technical requirements of aviation equipment task reliability assessment and characteristics of Bernoulli test result distribution of data, determining available test samples according to the prior priori information of aviation equipment, analyzing the data characteristics, setting Beta distribution as priori distribution, determining a supplement test section design according to a task reliability test technology according to the number of samples of equipment historical serious quality problems, designing a follow-up supplement test implementation scheme, determining a posterior density function according to follow-up supplement test results, combining with Bayesian theorem, and giving out task reliability level under corresponding confidence conditions, thereby solving the problems that a conventional task reliability assessment model is not applicable and the supplement test sample requirement is high.

Inventors

SONG HAIJING
MA TAO
JIAO YI
LV BAO
LIN YU

Assignees

中国飞行试验研究院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20251227

Claims (8)

1. An aircraft equipment task reliability assessment method based on priori information, which is characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, determining minimum sample requirements of the task reliability test under different confidence coefficient conditions and different failure samples according to technical requirements of the aviation equipment task reliability test and binomial distribution of data thereof; s2, according to the prior information of the aviation equipment, two factors of a technical state and a task section are combined, an available test sample is determined, beta distribution is set as prior distribution, and a prior density function is formed; s3, determining a supplementary test sample according to the number of samples of the serious quality problems of the equipment history and the task reliability test technology, and developing a supplementary test scheme design from the viewpoint of a task section; and S4, determining a posterior density function according to a supplementary test result and combining with a Bayesian theorem, and constructing a task reliability comprehensive evaluation model based on prior information, namely a task reliability confidence lower limit of equipment under the corresponding confidence.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: and S5, verifying an aviation equipment task reliability evaluation method based on prior information according to the reliability continuous evaluation result and certain equipment continuous evaluation data.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein S1 specifically comprises: The task reliability test result is a Bernoulli test result and obeys binomial distribution; and (5) integrating task reliability indexes and confidence degrees of the equipment, and determining the minimum samples under different failure times.
4. A method according to claim 3, wherein S2 comprises: aiming at prior information of aviation equipment, two factors of technical state and task section are integrated, and a test sample can be definitely used; According to the characteristic of prior data distribution of the task reliability of the aviation equipment, the prior data distribution is converted into beta distribution, and a prior density function is formed.
5. The method according to claim 4, wherein S3 specifically comprises: combining the minimum sample and the available test sample to form a supplemental test sample for posterior test; Starting from two angles of technical state and task section, carrying out test influence factor analysis, test level selection and test matrix design, and developing a supplementary test scheme design; the posterior supplementary sample size is determined by confidence coefficient, failure sample and prior sample; The test level is selected from the orthogonal theory; the test matrix is designed by a quasi-horizontal method.
6. The method according to claim 5, wherein S4 specifically comprises: according to the Bayesian theorem, a likelihood function and a priori density function are utilized to determine a posterior density function; and constructing a task reliability comprehensive evaluation model based on priori information, and giving a lower confidence limit of the equipment task reliability under the corresponding confidence level.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the combining the two factors of the technical state and the task profile for the prior information of the aircraft equipment to define the available test sample, and converting the prior information into the beta distribution according to the prior data distribution characteristics of the task reliability of the aircraft equipment to form the prior density function comprises: Aiming at sensitive influence factors of the reliability of the system task, carrying out analysis from the technical state of equipment and the section of the test task to determine prior data which can be used for early test; Determining trusted data including sample number and failure number according to the data distribution characteristics of the trusted data in the earlier stage, substituting beta distribution as prior distribution into the following formula to obtain a conjugated prior density function; Wherein, the A priori density function; Task reliability; A priori sample; The prior failure times.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the determining the posterior density function using the likelihood function and the prior density function according to the Bayesian theorem, constructing a task reliability comprehensive assessment model based on prior information, and giving a lower confidence limit for the equipment task reliability under the corresponding confidence level, comprises: According to the supplementary test result, the posterior test density is determined, and the posterior density is determined by the Bayes theorem: Wherein, the Posterior density function; a priori density function; Likelihood function; Posterior sample; Posterior failure times; calculating a task reliability confidence lower limit under the given confidence condition: Wherein, the Task reliability assessment results; confidence.

Description

Aviation equipment task reliability assessment method based on priori information Technical Field The application belongs to the technical field of reliability evaluation, and particularly relates to an aviation equipment task reliability evaluation method based on priori information. Background At present, task reliability assessment refers to a basic reliability assessment mode, task reliability indexes of equipment are assessed, and the problem that an exponential distribution-based model is inconsistent with binomial distribution characteristics of task reliability data presentation exists. When the task reliability supplementary test mode is adopted for examination, the problems that resource waste is caused by insufficient utilization of test samples developed in the early stage, task planning and test section do not meet sample selection requirements, and a plurality of test samples are required for supplementary test planning exist. Therefore, the available priori information is required to be formed through comprehensive analysis, and then test samples are supplemented, so that the purpose of carrying out task reliability assessment is achieved. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide an aviation equipment task reliability assessment method based on priori information, and provides a supplementary test sample determination and test design method, so that the problems that a task reliability assessment model is not applicable and the supplementary test sample is required to be large in the aviation equipment performance identification test stage are effectively solved. The application provides an aviation equipment task reliability assessment method based on priori information, which comprises the following steps: S1, determining minimum sample requirements of the task reliability test under different confidence coefficient conditions and different failure samples according to technical requirements of the aviation equipment task reliability test and binomial distribution of data thereof; s2, according to the prior information of the aviation equipment, two factors of a technical state and a task section are combined, an available test sample is determined, beta distribution is set as prior distribution, and a prior density function is formed; s3, determining a supplementary test sample according to the number of samples of the serious quality problems of the equipment history and the task reliability test technology, and developing a supplementary test scheme design from the viewpoint of a task section; and S4, determining a posterior density function according to a supplementary test result and combining with a Bayesian theorem, and constructing a task reliability comprehensive evaluation model based on prior information, namely a task reliability confidence lower limit of equipment under the corresponding confidence. Preferably, the method further comprises: and S5, verifying an aviation equipment task reliability evaluation method based on prior information according to the reliability continuous evaluation result and certain equipment continuous evaluation data. Preferably, the S1 specifically includes: The task reliability test result is a Bernoulli test result and obeys binomial distribution; and (5) integrating task reliability indexes and confidence degrees of the equipment, and determining the minimum samples under different failure times. Preferably, the S2 specifically includes: aiming at prior information of aviation equipment, two factors of technical state and task section are integrated, and a test sample can be definitely used; According to the characteristic of prior data distribution of the task reliability of the aviation equipment, the prior data distribution is converted into beta distribution, and a prior density function is formed. Preferably, the S3 specifically includes: combining the minimum sample and the available test sample to form a supplemental test sample for posterior test; Starting from two angles of technical state and task section, carrying out test influence factor analysis, test level selection and test matrix design, and developing a supplementary test scheme design; the posterior supplementary sample size is determined by confidence coefficient, failure sample and prior sample; The test level is selected from the orthogonal theory; the test matrix is designed by a quasi-horizontal method. Preferably, the S4 specifically includes: according to the Bayesian theorem, a likelihood function and a priori density function are utilized to determine a posterior density function; and constructing a task reliability comprehensive evaluation model based on priori information, and giving a lower confidence limit of the equipment task reliability under the corresponding confidence level. Preferably, the method for determining the prior information of the aviation equipment comprises the steps of combining two factors of technical state and task section, dete