CN-122022188-A - Resource environment bearing threshold value measuring and calculating method based on system dynamics model

CN122022188ACN 122022188 ACN122022188 ACN 122022188ACN-122022188-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a resource environment bearing threshold value measuring and calculating method based on a system dynamics model, which comprises the steps of determining weight values of sub-modules of a plurality of space areas divided by a region to be studied by adopting an expert experience assignment method introducing an adjusting factor and a cross-region objective weighting method fusion mechanism, calculating bearing population values of the sub-modules of the plurality of space areas based on the system dynamics model, calculating a comprehensive bearing population of a resource environment of each space area according to the bearing population values and the weight values of the sub-modules of the plurality of space areas, and calculating a sustainable development state index of each space area according to the comprehensive bearing population and a living population of the resource environment of each space area.

Inventors

WANG HONGJIE
ZHANG JINGQIU
HUANG JIANYI
LIU GUILI
CHEN LI
ZHANG YUANSUO
LI CHEN

Assignees

北京联合大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260407

Claims (10)

1. A method for measuring and calculating a resource environment bearing threshold based on a system dynamics model is characterized by comprising the following steps: determining the weight value of each sub-module of dividing a region to be researched into a plurality of space regions by adopting an expert experience assignment method introducing an adjusting factor and a cross-region objective weighting method fusion mechanism; calculating the load population value of each sub-module of a plurality of space areas based on the system dynamics model; Calculating the comprehensive load population of the resource environment of each space region according to the load population value and the weight value of each sub-module of each space region; And calculating the sustainable development state index of each space region according to the comprehensive bearing population and the living population of the resource environment of each space region.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the calculation expression of the weight value of each sub-module of the plurality of spatial regions is: In the formula, Representing spatial regions First, the Sub-module weight Satisfies the following conditions ; Representing the fusion coefficient of the ith sub-module of the spatial region j; The i-th submodule expert experience of the space region j is represented, and the experience values of 0.2, 0.1, 0.15 and 0.15 are respectively taken; representing objective weighting; Representing an adjustment factor; and (5) objectively weighting the ith sub-module.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the objective weighting process of each sub-module is as follows: Constructing a bearing matrix of the region to be researched according to the bearing module values of each space region; Calculating the average value and the standard value of the area to be researched according to the bearing matrix; calculating the correlation coefficient among all the submodules according to the average value, and constructing a correlation matrix; calculating the average correlation degree between each sub-module and other modules according to the correlation matrix; calculating the information intensity coefficient of each submodule in the region to be researched according to the average correlation degree and the standard value; and carrying out normalization processing on the information intensity coefficient to obtain objective weighting of each sub-module.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the objective weighting is provided by The expression of (2) is: Wherein, the , In the formula, I k represents the information intensity coefficient of the kth sub-module in the J space areas; representing standard deviation of the ith sub-module in J space areas, namely the discrete degree of the measuring module; Representing a measure of its independence from other modules; And (3) with The product of the two reflects the independent information amount provided by the module; The average correlation degree of the ith sub-module is represented, and r i,k represents the Pearson correlation coefficient between the ith sub-module and the kth sub-module in J space regions.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the load population value of each sub-module is calculated as: Wherein, the Representing spatial regions Water resource bearing population; representing the water consumption standard of people; Representing spatial regions The amount of available water resources; Representing a region Water resources can be utilized; Representing spatial regions Regenerating water resources; Representing spatial regions Preparing water resources; Wherein, the Representing spatial regions The cultivated land bearing population; representing the average grain occupation standard; Representing a region Grain feedability; Representing spatial regions Sowing area of grain crops; Representing spatial regions A unit yield level; Representing spatial regions Self-supporting rate of grains; Wherein, the Representing the load bearing population of the construction land of the space region j; representing the standard of the construction land of people's average; Representing available construction land for the spatial region; representing the total area of the land in the space region; Representing spatial regions Red line area of cultivated land; Representing spatial regions Ecological protection; Representing spatial regions The utilization rate of construction; Wherein, the Representing the energy bearing population of the spatial region j; representing the energy consumption standard of people per unit; Representing spatial regions Energy source supplying quantity; Representing spatial regions Primary energy production; Representing spatial regions Energy self-supply rate; Wherein, the Representing the spatial region j environment bearing population; representing the standard of the sewage generation amount of people; representing the standard of the emission amount of SO 2 in the industry of people average; representing the standard of the production amount of the industrial solid waste per capita; The sewage treatment capacity of the space region j is represented; The sewage drainage capacity of the space region j is represented; Representing the industrial SO 2 emission of the region j; Representing the industrial solid waste treatment capacity of the space region j; Indicating the dischargeable amount of industrial solid waste in region j; Wherein, the Representing the ecological bearing population of the space region j; Represents a per-person ecological bearing capacity standard, EC j represents the ecological bearing capacity of a space region j, A k,j represents the actual occupied k-th biological production land area of the space region j, Y k represents the production land quality factor of the kth class of organisms; Representing a region The ecological load capacity adjustment factor is set to 0.88.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the computing expression of the resource environment comprehensive load population of each spatial region is: In the formula, Representing spatial regions Comprehensively bearing population in resource environment; Represent spatial region j Sub-module weight Satisfies the following conditions ; Representing spatial regions First, the The sub-modules carry population values, Is a space region The water resource bears the population of the human, Is a space region The cultivated land bears the population of the human body, Is a space region The population of the load bearing building site, Is a space region The population of the energy source bearing population, Is a space region The environment carries a population of people, Is a space region Ecological load bearing population.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the calculated expression of the sustainable development status index is: in the formula, RECC j represents a comprehensive load bearing population of a resource environment of a space region j, POP j represents a living population of the space region j, S j represents a sustainable development state index of the space region j, when S j is greater than 1, the residual bearing capacity has space, the space region j presents a sustainable development state, when S j is less than 1, the space region j is overloaded and presents an unsustainable development state, and when S j =1, the space region j is in a basic full-load early warning state.
8. The utility model provides a resource environment bears threshold value and measures and calculates device based on system dynamics model which characterized in that includes: The determining module is used for determining the weight value of each sub-module of dividing the region to be researched into a plurality of space regions by adopting an expert experience assignment method introducing the adjusting factors and a cross-region objective weighting method fusion mechanism; The first calculation module is used for calculating the bearing population value of each sub-module of the plurality of space areas based on the system dynamics model; the second calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive load population of the resource environment of each space region according to the load population value and the weight value of each sub-module of the plurality of space regions; and the third calculation module is used for calculating the sustainable development state index of each space region according to the comprehensive bearing population and the living population of the resource environment of each space region.
9. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the storage medium stores a computer program for executing the method of any of the preceding claims 1-7.
10. An electronic device, the electronic device comprising: A processor; a memory for storing the processor-executable instructions; The processor is configured to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method of any of the preceding claims 1-7.

Description

Resource environment bearing threshold value measuring and calculating method based on system dynamics model Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of environment assessment, in particular to a resource environment bearing threshold measuring and calculating method based on a system dynamics model. Background The resource environment bearing capacity assessment usually relies on a shortest 'barrel' principle or a weighted combination method, wherein the barrel effect takes the minimum value of the bearing capacity of each element as the total bearing capacity, but the resource environment bearing capacity assessment ignores the substitution among resources, and the comprehensive assessment rule carries out weighted average based on expert weighting. The traditional method focuses on static indexes and lacks dynamic change consideration. In recent years, in order to solve the above-mentioned shortcomings, researchers have started to combine system dynamics (SYSTEM DYNAMICS model, SD) with technologies such as Geographic Information System (GIS), remote Sensing (RS), etc., construct a dynamic model and perform multi-scenario simulation analysis, so as to realize dynamic and quantitative evaluation of the bearing capacity of the resource environment. How to solve the defects of single bearing element and neglecting element substitution and space heterogeneity in the existing method becomes a technical problem to be solved urgently. Disclosure of Invention Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a resource environment bearing threshold measuring and calculating method based on a system dynamics model. According to one aspect of the invention, there is provided a method for measuring and calculating a resource environment bearing threshold based on a system dynamics model, comprising: determining the weight value of each sub-module of dividing a region to be researched into a plurality of space regions by adopting an expert experience assignment method introducing an adjusting factor and a cross-region objective weighting method fusion mechanism; calculating the load population value of each sub-module of a plurality of space areas based on the system dynamics model; Calculating the comprehensive load population of the resource environment of each space region according to the load population value and the weight value of each sub-module of each space region; and calculating the sustainable development state index of each space region according to the comprehensive bearing population and the living population of the resource environment of each space region. According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a resource environment load threshold measurement device based on a system dynamics model, including: The determining module is used for determining the weight value of each sub-module of dividing the region to be researched into a plurality of space regions by adopting an expert experience assignment method introducing the adjusting factors and a cross-region objective weighting method fusion mechanism; The first calculation module is used for calculating the bearing population value of each sub-module of the plurality of space areas based on the system dynamics model; The second calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive load population of the resource environment of each space region according to the load population value and the weight value of each sub-module of the plurality of space regions; and the third calculation module is used for calculating the sustainable development state index of each space region according to the comprehensive bearing population and the living population of the resource environment of each space region. According to a further aspect of the present invention there is provided a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program for performing the method according to any one of the above aspects of the present invention. According to yet another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an electronic device comprising a processor, a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor, the processor being adapted to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method according to any of the above aspects of the present invention. Therefore, the invention provides a method for integrating an SD model and a 3S technology (GIS, RS, GPS), which introduces multidimensional dynamic regulation factors and environmental response parameters, simulates the interactive substitution relation among the elements through system dynamics simulation, and constructs a resource environment bearing capacity calculation model with structural difference, technical dynamics and space elasticity. Compared with the traditional static model, only the available total amount is considered, the scheme remarkably improves comprehensive expression ca