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CN-122022197-A - Ecological environment pollution risk assessment method and system

CN122022197ACN 122022197 ACN122022197 ACN 122022197ACN-122022197-A

Abstract

The invention discloses an ecological environment pollution risk assessment method and system, which comprises the following steps of collecting radioactivity monitoring data of a target area, executing pretreatment, constructing a radioactive pollution space-time distribution observation field of the target area, generating a pollution observation field matrix, coupling a nuclide decay process with a diffusion migration process to form a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model, constructing a pollution digital twin evolution field, carrying out simulation calculation on a pollution diffusion state of the target area under a continuous time sequence, constructing a pollution source hypothesis set, forming a pollution source parameter vector set, carrying out iterative update and optimization on the pollution source parameter vector set, calculating a radioactive risk value of each space unit of the target area, and carrying out risk grade division to generate an ecological environment pollution risk assessment result. The radioactive pollution risk assessment method based on decay diffusion coupling and digital twin inversion realizes radioactive pollution risk assessment by using a decay diffusion coupling and digital twin inversion method, and has the advantages of high accuracy and strong space-time characterization.

Inventors

  • HU SHUGUANG

Assignees

  • 厦门布鲁众创环境技术有限公司

Dates

Publication Date
20260512
Application Date
20260413

Claims (10)

  1. 1. The ecological environment pollution risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: collecting radioactivity monitoring data of a target area, and performing preprocessing to form a standardized pollution observation data set; constructing a radioactive pollution space-time distribution observation field of a target area according to a standardized pollution observation data set, and generating a pollution observation field matrix; Based on a pollution observation field matrix, establishing a nuclide decay time evolution model and an environmental medium diffusion migration model, and coupling a nuclide decay process and a diffusion migration process to form a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model; constructing a pollution digital twin evolution field based on a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model, and performing simulation calculation on a pollution diffusion state of a target area under a continuous time sequence to generate a virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence; Constructing a pollution source hypothesis set based on the pollution observation field matrix and the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence, and forming a pollution source parameter vector set; Carrying out iterative updating and optimization on the pollution source parameter vector set to generate an optimal pollution source parameter result; And generating a pollution propagation path and a pollution evolution time sequence of the target area based on the optimal pollution source parameter result, calculating the radioactivity risk value of each space unit of the target area, and carrying out risk classification to generate an ecological environment pollution risk assessment result.
  2. 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the radioactivity monitoring data comprises a nuclide activity concentration and a dosage rate.
  3. 3. The method for assessing the risk of environmental pollution of claim 1 wherein said preprocessing includes time synchronization, deletion complement, anomaly rejection and data normalization.
  4. 4. The method for evaluating the risk of environmental pollution according to claim 1, wherein the generating of the pollution observation field matrix specifically comprises: reading a standardized pollution observation data set, dividing a space unit of a target area according to the space coordinates of each monitoring point in the target area to obtain a space unit set, and establishing a corresponding time index according to sampling time; Mapping the nuclide activity concentration data and the dose rate data corresponding to each monitoring point under each sampling time to a corresponding space unit and a corresponding time index respectively to form radioactive observation data items of each space unit under each time index; Extracting all radioactive observation data items of the same space unit under the same time index, and counting the quantity value of the radioactive observation data items; When the number value of the radioactive observation data items is larger than 1, gathering the nuclide activity concentration data and the dose rate data in all the radioactive observation data items to obtain a nuclide activity concentration gathering value and a dose rate gathering value, and generating a radioactive intensity representation value of the corresponding space unit under the corresponding time index; when the number value of the radioactive observation data item is equal to 1, reading nuclide activity concentration data and dose rate data in the radioactive observation data item, and generating a radioactive intensity representation value of a corresponding space unit under a corresponding time index; Organizing the corresponding radioactive intensity representation values of each space unit under each time index according to the corresponding relation between the space units and the time index, and constructing a radioactive pollution space-time distribution observation field; And writing the radioactive intensity representation value of each space unit in the radioactive pollution space-time distribution observation field under each time index into a corresponding matrix position by taking the space unit as a row index and the time index as a column index to generate a pollution observation field matrix.
  5. 5. The method for evaluating the risk of ecological environmental pollution according to claim 1, wherein the construction of the radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model specifically comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of reading the radioactive intensity representation value of each space unit in a pollution observation field matrix under each time index, extracting a radioactive intensity change sequence corresponding to each space unit under a continuous time index, and determining a nuclide attenuation trend value corresponding to each space unit; based on the nuclide decay trend values corresponding to the space units, establishing a nuclide decay transfer relationship between the time indexes, generating a nuclide decay time evolution model facing the continuous time indexes, and obtaining nuclide decay evolution values corresponding to the space units under the time indexes; Establishing a diffusion migration association relation between adjacent space units by combining the space distribution relation of each space unit in the pollution observation field matrix, generating a space migration transmission path according to a radioactivity intensity change sequence of each space unit under a continuous time index, forming an environment medium diffusion migration model, and obtaining corresponding diffusion migration values between each space unit; Performing association mapping on the nuclide decay evolution value in the nuclide decay time evolution model and the diffusion migration value in the environmental medium diffusion migration model according to the same time index and the same space unit to form a decay migration combined evolution value corresponding to each space unit under each time index; And constructing a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model according to the corresponding decay migration combined evolution values of each space unit under each time index.
  6. 6. The method for evaluating the risk of ecological environmental pollution according to claim 1, wherein the generation of the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence specifically comprises: reading decay migration combined evolution values corresponding to each space unit under each time index in the radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model, and arranging the decay migration combined evolution values according to the corresponding relation between the space units and the time indexes to form a combined evolution value sequence corresponding to a target area; Based on the combined evolution value sequence, constructing a virtual pollution mapping unit corresponding to the target area according to the sequence of the space coordinates and the time indexes of the space units, and writing decay migration combined evolution values corresponding to each space unit under each time index into the corresponding virtual pollution mapping unit to obtain a pollution digital twin basic unit set; Continuous time sequence association is carried out on the numerical values of each virtual pollution mapping unit in the pollution digital twin basic unit set, virtual pollution evolution chains corresponding to each space unit under continuous time indexes are formed, space adjacent association is carried out on each virtual pollution evolution chain, and a virtual pollution evolution association network is generated; Performing recursive simulation on the pollution diffusion state of each space unit under each time index according to the virtual pollution evolution association network to obtain virtual pollution diffusion values corresponding to each space unit under each time index, and organizing according to the time index sequence to form virtual pollution time sequence distribution results corresponding to each space unit; integrating the virtual pollution time sequence distribution results corresponding to each space unit according to the corresponding relation between the space units and the time index, and constructing a pollution digital twin evolution field; and extracting virtual pollution diffusion values corresponding to each space unit under each time index from the pollution digital twin evolution field, and arranging the virtual pollution diffusion values according to the time index sequence and the space unit distribution sequence to generate a virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence.
  7. 7. The method for evaluating the risk of environmental pollution according to claim 1, wherein the generating of the pollution source parameter vector set specifically comprises: Reading the corresponding radioactive intensity characterization value of each space unit in the pollution observation field matrix under each time index, reading the corresponding virtual pollution diffusion value of each space unit in the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence under each time index, and aligning to form an observation simulation corresponding data set; For each observation simulation corresponding data set, calculating the difference between the radioactive intensity characterization value and the virtual pollution diffusion value, and organizing according to the space unit and the time index sequence to generate an observation simulation difference set; Extracting a difference continuous concentration characteristic region according to the difference change condition of each space unit in the observation simulation difference set under the continuous time index, and determining a candidate pollution source space position set by combining the diffusion direction distribution result of the corresponding space unit in the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence; For each candidate pollution source space position in the candidate pollution source space position set, reading a radioactive intensity representation value and a virtual pollution diffusion value of a corresponding space unit under each time index, generating a corresponding source intensity change sequence, and determining a release intensity parameter and a release time parameter corresponding to each candidate pollution source space position according to the source intensity change sequence; combining the spatial position parameters, the release intensity parameters and the release time parameters corresponding to the spatial positions of the candidate pollution sources to form a pollution source hypothesis set, and sequentially numbering the pollution source hypotheses to generate a pollution source parameter vector; all pollution source parameter vectors are organized according to the pollution source hypothesis number sequence to form a pollution source parameter vector set.
  8. 8. The method for evaluating the risk of environmental pollution according to claim 1, wherein the generating of the optimal pollution source parameter result specifically comprises: reading a pollution source parameter vector set, extracting corresponding spatial position parameters, release intensity parameters and release time parameters, and forming a pollution source parameter candidate set; According to each pollution source parameter candidate group, carrying out iterative adjustment on the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence to obtain updated virtual pollution distribution results corresponding to each pollution source parameter candidate group; Comparing each updated virtual pollution distribution result with a pollution observation field matrix, calculating an observation simulation deviation value of each space unit under each time index, and generating a total deviation value corresponding to each pollution source parameter candidate group; Sequencing the total deviation values corresponding to the pollution source parameter candidate groups, determining the pollution source parameter candidate group with the smallest total deviation value as the current optimal pollution source parameter candidate group, and determining the corresponding total deviation value as the current optimal deviation value; Taking the space position parameter, the release intensity parameter and the release time parameter in the current optimal pollution source parameter candidate group as references, respectively carrying out increment adjustment and decrement adjustment on each parameter to generate a new round of pollution source parameter candidate group set, and repeatedly executing iteration adjustment of the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence and calculation of the total deviation value to obtain a new round of parameter optimization result corresponding to each pollution source parameter candidate group; Comparing the parameter optimization results corresponding to the pollution source parameter candidate sets of the new round, and when the minimum total deviation value in the parameter optimization results of the new round is smaller than the current optimal deviation value, determining the pollution source parameter candidate set corresponding to the minimum total deviation value as an updated optimal pollution source parameter candidate set and updating the minimum total deviation value as the current optimal deviation value; And repeatedly executing until the current optimal deviation value is smaller than a preset deviation threshold value, stopping iteration, and determining the updated optimal pollution source parameter candidate set when the iteration is stopped as an optimal pollution source parameter result.
  9. 9. The method for evaluating the risk of ecological environmental pollution according to claim 1, wherein the generating of the risk of ecological environmental pollution evaluation result specifically comprises: reading a space position parameter and a release intensity parameter in an optimal pollution source parameter result, and determining a pollution source starting space unit and a pollution source starting time index to form a pollution source starting parameter set; Determining the pollution propagation sequence and the pollution transmission direction among all the space units according to the sequence of the time index based on the pollution source starting parameter set, and generating a pollution propagation path corresponding to the target area; Extracting a pollution arrival time index and a pollution duration time index corresponding to each space unit according to the transmission sequence of each space unit in the pollution transmission path, and generating a pollution evolution time sequence corresponding to the target area; organizing the pollution propagation path and the pollution evolution time sequence according to the corresponding relation between the space unit and the time index to generate pollution propagation process data; Reading a pollution arrival time index and a pollution duration time index corresponding to each space unit in pollution transmission process data, reading a current adjustment pollution value corresponding to each space unit under each time index in an updated virtual pollution distribution result, extracting a maximum current adjustment pollution value corresponding to each space unit as a pollution intensity result, and calculating a radioactivity risk value corresponding to each space unit; According to the corresponding relation between the radioactivity risk value corresponding to each space unit and the preset risk level dividing threshold value, carrying out risk level division on each space unit, and generating a risk level result corresponding to each space unit; And organizing the radioactivity risk values and the risk level results corresponding to the space units according to the space unit distribution sequence to generate an ecological environment pollution risk assessment result.
  10. 10. An ecological environmental pollution risk assessment system that performs the ecological environmental pollution risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized by comprising: The data acquisition module is used for acquiring the radioactivity monitoring data of the target area, and performing preprocessing to form a standardized pollution observation data set; The pollution observation field construction module is used for constructing a radioactive pollution space-time distribution observation field of the target area and generating a pollution observation field matrix; The coupling evolution model building module is used for building a nuclide decay time evolution model and an environmental medium diffusion migration model based on the pollution observation field matrix to form a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model; the pollution digital twin evolution module is used for constructing a pollution digital twin evolution field based on a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model, performing simulation calculation and generating a virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence; The pollution source hypothesis construction module is used for constructing a pollution source hypothesis set based on the pollution observation field matrix and the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence and forming a pollution source parameter vector set; The pollution source parameter optimization module is used for carrying out iterative updating and optimization on the pollution source parameter vector set to generate an optimal pollution source parameter result; The risk assessment result generation module is used for generating a pollution propagation path and a pollution evolution time sequence of the target area, calculating the radioactivity risk value of each space unit of the target area, and carrying out risk classification to generate an ecological environment pollution risk assessment result.

Description

Ecological environment pollution risk assessment method and system Technical Field The invention relates to the field of pollution risk assessment, in particular to an ecological environment pollution risk assessment method and system. Background Along with the concern of society on ecological environment pollution, the radioactivity monitoring work of ecological environment is continuously advancing, and a technical route for carrying out pollution identification, diffusion research and risk assessment based on monitoring data is formed aiming at the acquisition and analysis of nuclear element activity concentration and dosage rate in a target area. In the prior art, the radioactive pollution state of the area is analyzed through monitoring point data statistics, pollution diffusion model deduction or risk index calculation, and basis is provided for pollution early warning, emergency treatment and environment management. However, in the prior art, the static interpretation or single diffusion process analysis of the monitoring result is focused on, and it is difficult to construct an observation field matrix, a decay-diffusion coupling evolution model and a pollution digital twin evolution field around a unified space-time unit, so that inversion capability on the position, the release strength and the release time of a pollution source is insufficient, and a pollution propagation path and a pollution evolution time sequence are difficult to reconstruct accurately, thereby affecting the accuracy of calculation of radioactivity risk values and classification of risk grades of each space unit. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide an ecological environment pollution risk assessment method, which utilizes a decay diffusion coupling and digital twin inversion method to realize radioactive pollution risk assessment and has the advantages of high accuracy and strong space-time characterization. The ecological environment pollution risk assessment method according to the embodiment of the invention comprises the following steps: collecting radioactivity monitoring data of a target area, and performing preprocessing to form a standardized pollution observation data set; constructing a radioactive pollution space-time distribution observation field of a target area according to a standardized pollution observation data set, and generating a pollution observation field matrix; Based on a pollution observation field matrix, establishing a nuclide decay time evolution model and an environmental medium diffusion migration model, and coupling a nuclide decay process and a diffusion migration process to form a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model; constructing a pollution digital twin evolution field based on a radioactive decay-diffusion coupling evolution model, and performing simulation calculation on a pollution diffusion state of a target area under a continuous time sequence to generate a virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence; Constructing a pollution source hypothesis set based on the pollution observation field matrix and the virtual pollution space-time distribution sequence, and forming a pollution source parameter vector set; Carrying out iterative updating and optimization on the pollution source parameter vector set to generate an optimal pollution source parameter result; And generating a pollution propagation path and a pollution evolution time sequence of the target area based on the optimal pollution source parameter result, calculating the radioactivity risk value of each space unit of the target area, and carrying out risk classification to generate an ecological environment pollution risk assessment result. Optionally, the radioactivity monitoring data comprises a nuclide activity concentration and a dose rate. Optionally, the preprocessing includes time synchronization, deletion complement, anomaly rejection and data normalization. Optionally, the generating of the contaminated observation field matrix specifically includes: reading a standardized pollution observation data set, dividing a space unit of a target area according to the space coordinates of each monitoring point in the target area to obtain a space unit set, and establishing a corresponding time index according to sampling time; Mapping the nuclide activity concentration data and the dose rate data corresponding to each monitoring point under each sampling time to a corresponding space unit and a corresponding time index respectively to form radioactive observation data items of each space unit under each time index; Extracting all radioactive observation data items of the same space unit under the same time index, and counting the quantity value of the radioactive observation data items; When the number value of the radioactive observation data items is larger than 1, gathering the nuclide activity concentration data and the dose rate data in all the radioactive observation data items to ob