CN-122022505-A - Multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment method and a system, which relate to the technical field of data processing, wherein the method comprises the following steps that step 1, multi-source data in a target assessment region are fused and converted to form a risk element data set, and the risk value of each extreme climate event under the standard space scale is calculated respectively; and 2, extracting historical monitoring data of four field calibration points in the target evaluation area, and calculating actual measurement risk values of the field calibration points and field risk deviation values of the field calibration points. According to the method, through multi-source data fusion, field calibration, space tetrahedron judgment and deviation correction, multi-disaster coupling effect and linkage effect are analyzed, and future scene dynamic prediction risk evolution is combined, so that decision support is provided for extreme climate comprehensive risk prevention, control and adaptation of a target evaluation area.

Inventors

• FENG CHENG
• FENG JIANFENG
• JIANG CONG
• WANG CHANGRUI
• ZENG JINGYU
• FENG JIANQIANG
• TIAN JUNZHE
• SHUI WEI
• Wu guanda
• ZHOU XIONG
• HE QINGQIANG
• ZHANG MIN
• XUE CHENGZHI
• WANG QIANFENG

Assignees

• 硕威工程科技股份有限公司
• 福州大学
• 福建农林大学
• 福州徕斯达信息科技有限公司

Dates

Publication Date

20260512

Application Date

20260415

Claims (10)

1. 1. A method for regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment of multi-disaster coupling, the method comprising: Step 1, carrying out fusion and conversion processing on multi-source data in a target evaluation area to form a risk element data set, and respectively calculating a risk value of each extreme weather event under a standard space scale; step 2, extracting historical monitoring data of four field calibration points in a target evaluation area, and calculating actual measurement risk values of the field calibration points and field risk deviation values of the field calibration points; step 3, constructing a space tetrahedron, calculating the directed distance from any space grid point to be corrected to each triangular plane of the space tetrahedron, and judging whether the space grid point to be corrected is positioned inside or outside the space tetrahedron to obtain a judgment result; Step 4, calculating acting force components of the space grid points to be corrected in the axial directions of the spaces based on the judging result, and determining grid risk deviation values of the space grid points to be corrected by combining the field risk deviation values of the field calibration points to generate a continuous risk deviation correction field; step 5, correcting risk values of standard spatial scales through a risk deviation correction field, and analyzing interaction and linkage effects of risks of various extreme climate events based on correction results to obtain comprehensive extreme climate risk levels and spatial distribution under multi-disaster coupling situations of a target evaluation area; and 6, dynamically estimating the evolution trend of the extreme climate comprehensive risk of the target evaluation area according to the comprehensive extreme climate risk level and the spatial distribution and combining the future climate change scene simulation data to form a targeted risk prevention and control and adaptation strategy.
2. 2. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein prior to step 1: determining a target evaluation area, and selecting a hot wave event with the highest daily temperature continuously exceeding 35 ℃, a strong precipitation event with the daily precipitation exceeding 50 millimeters, a drought event with continuous no effective precipitation for more than 30 days and an event with storm water increase exceeding a local warning tide level caused by a tropical cyclone or a temperate zone cyclone as evaluation objects; Based on a risk assessment framework formed by dangers, exposure degrees and fragility, aiming at a thermal wave event, a strong rainfall event, a drought event and a storm water increasing event, a risk assessment index structure applicable to the same standard spatial scale is respectively constructed.
3. 3. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein step 1 comprises: The method comprises the steps of collecting multi-source data matched with a thermal wave event, a strong rainfall event, a drought event and a storm water increasing event in a target evaluation area, wherein the multi-source data comprises meteorological monitoring data, geographic environment data and historical disaster data; for a thermal wave event, a strong rainfall event, a drought event and a storm water increasing event, respectively extracting a risk index value, an exposure index value and a vulnerability index value from a risk element data set; And carrying out weighted summation calculation on the corresponding dangerous index value, exposure index value and vulnerability index value according to preset index weights in a risk assessment index structure constructed for the thermal wave event, the strong rainfall event, the drought event and the storm water increasing event, so as to respectively obtain risk values of the thermal wave event, the strong rainfall event, the drought event and the storm water increasing event under a standard space scale.
4. 4. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment method of claim 3, wherein step 2 comprises: Extracting historical monitoring data of four field calibration points, namely a railway bridge structure health calibration point, a railway tunnel portal weather calibration point, a railway substation weather calibration point along a railway and a railway roadbed settlement calibration point, in a target evaluation area, wherein the historical monitoring data comprises structural stress data, weather element data, power load data and roadbed deformation data; Based on historical monitoring data, respectively obtaining an actual measurement risk value of the healthy calibration point of the railway bridge structure, an actual measurement risk value of the weather calibration point of the railway tunnel portal, an actual measurement risk value of the weather calibration point of the transformer substation along the railway and an actual measurement risk value of the settlement calibration point of the railway subgrade by carrying out weighted summation on structural stress data of the healthy calibration point of the railway bridge structure, weighted summation on weather element data of the weather calibration point of the railway tunnel portal, weighted summation on power load data of the weather calibration point of the transformer substation along the railway and weighted summation on subgrade deformation data of the settlement calibration point of the railway subgrade; And respectively comparing the actual measurement risk values of the field calibration points with the risk values of the thermal wave event, the strong rainfall event, the drought event and the storm water increasing event under the standard spatial scale, and calculating to obtain the field risk deviation values of the field calibration points for various extreme climate events.
5. 5. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment method of claim 4, wherein said step 3 comprises: constructing a space tetrahedron by taking three-dimensional space coordinates of a railway bridge structure health calibration point, a railway tunnel portal weather calibration point, a railway substation weather calibration point along a railway and a railway roadbed settlement calibration point as vertexes; According to the spatial resolution of the standard spatial scale, determining a spatial grid for risk value calculation in a target evaluation area, and defining unit nodes forming the spatial grid as spatial grid points to be corrected; calculating directed distance values from any space grid point to be corrected to four triangular plane surfaces of the space tetrahedron; and judging whether the space grid point to be corrected is positioned inside or outside the space tetrahedron according to the symbol relation of each directed distance value, and obtaining a judging result.
6. 6. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment method according to claim 5, wherein the step of judging whether the space grid point to be corrected is located inside or outside the space tetrahedron according to the symbol relation of each directional distance value to obtain a judgment result comprises the steps of: when the directional distance value from the space grid point to any triangular plane to be corrected is a negative value, the space grid point to be corrected is judged to be positioned outside the space tetrahedron.
7. 7. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment method of claim 6, wherein said step 4 comprises: When the judgment result is that the space grid point to be corrected is positioned in the space tetrahedron, calculating positive or negative acting force components of the space grid point to be corrected in each space axial direction according to the three-dimensional space distance from the space grid point to be corrected to each vertex of the space tetrahedron; When the judgment result is that the space grid point to be corrected is positioned outside the space tetrahedron, calculating a normal acting component of the space grid point to be corrected along the normal direction of the plane according to the relationship between the space grid point to be corrected and the triangular plane with the minimum vertical distance; Based on the acting force component or the normal acting component, the grid risk deviation amount of the space grid points to be corrected is determined by combining the healthy calibration points of the railway bridge structure, the weather calibration points of the railway tunnel portal, the weather calibration points of the transformer substations along the railway and the on-site risk deviation amount of the settlement calibration points of the railway roadbed, and the grid risk deviation amounts of all the space grid points to be corrected are integrated to generate a continuous risk deviation correction field.
8. 8. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment method of claim 7, wherein said step 5 comprises: The risk deviation correction field is overlapped with the risk values of the thermal wave event, the strong rainfall event, the drought event and the storm water increasing event under the standard space scale in a position corresponding manner, so that corrected risk values of various extreme climate events are obtained; Based on the corrected risk values of various extreme climate events, a coupling influence model reflecting the mutual influence relation of four types of risk values is constructed, the linkage effect process of multi-disaster interaction is simulated through the coupling influence model, and the comprehensive extreme climate risk level and the spatial distribution of a target evaluation area under the multi-disaster coupling scene are determined according to a preset risk level division standard.
9. 9. The multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment method of claim 8, wherein said step 6 comprises: acquiring future climate change scenario simulation data, wherein the simulation data comprise future air temperature change prediction data, future precipitation change prediction data and future sea level change prediction data; Inputting the predicted data of the future air temperature change, the predicted data of the future precipitation change and the predicted data of the future sea level change into a coupling influence model, and calculating to obtain a simulated risk value sequence of the thermal wave event risk value, the strong precipitation event risk value, the drought event risk value and the storm water increasing event risk value in different future time periods; based on the simulation risk value sequence, calculating the average value of four types of extreme climate event simulation risk values on each space grid point to be corrected in the target evaluation area to obtain the evolution trend of the extreme climate comprehensive risk of the target evaluation area; Identifying extreme climate events with the simulated risk value higher than a preset risk threshold value for the first time in a preset evaluation period from the simulated risk value sequence, and taking the extreme climate events corresponding to the maximum increment of the simulated risk value in the preset evaluation period as key extreme climate events to be controlled; aiming at the critical extreme climate events to be controlled, a risk control and adaptation strategy comprising engineering measures, management measures or adaptation measures is formed.
10. 10. A multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment system implementing the method of any of claims 1 to 9, comprising: The system comprises an acquisition module, a space tetrahedron, a judgment module, a calculation module and a calculation module, wherein the acquisition module is used for carrying out fusion and conversion processing on multi-source data in a target evaluation area to form a risk factor data set, and respectively calculating a risk value of each extreme weather event under a standard space scale; the system comprises a processing module, a risk deviation correction field, a comprehensive extreme climate risk level and spatial distribution under the condition of multi-disaster coupling of a target evaluation area, and a target evaluation area extreme climate comprehensive risk level and spatial distribution, wherein the processing module is used for calculating acting force components of a space grid point to be corrected in each space axial direction based on a judgment result, determining grid risk deviation of the space grid point to be corrected by combining with field risk deviation of each field calibration point to generate a continuous risk deviation correction field, correcting risk values of standard space scales by the risk deviation correction field, analyzing interaction and linkage effects of risks of various extreme climate events based on the correction result, and dynamically estimating evolution trend of the extreme climate comprehensive risk of the target evaluation area according to the comprehensive extreme climate risk level and spatial distribution and combining with future climate change scene simulation data to form a targeted risk prevention and control and adaptation strategy.

Description

Multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment method and system Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to a regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment method and system for multi-disaster coupling. Background The existing regional extreme weather risk assessment method is characterized in that high-precision space calibration is not carried out on a large-scale standardized risk assessment result and localized actual risk conditions effectively, specifically, the existing method usually relies on limited field monitoring point data to carry out integral calibration or verification on a risk assessment model, and when space scale conversion or synthesis is carried out, the traditional space interpolation method such as Kriging interpolation is usually adopted to diffuse point calibration information to the whole assessment region, and the method is easy to introduce significant space deviation in a region with sparse monitoring point distribution or complicated underlying condition. For example, in the "storm 1 landslide" coupling risk assessment of a hilly area of a certain mountain, due to the strong influence of the topography on precipitation distribution and soil stability, interpolation correction based on monitoring points at valleys alone may result in insufficient estimation of disaster risk of the hilly area, so that the final "storm 1 landslide" comprehensive risk map is discontinuous or distorted in the mountain-valley transition zone, and it is difficult to accurately reflect the real space pattern of disaster chain risk. Disclosure of Invention The technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment method and a regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment system for multi-disaster coupling, so as to assess regional extreme climate comprehensive risk under a multi-disaster coupling scene. In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows: in a first aspect, a method for regional extreme climate integrated risk assessment for multi-disaster coupling, the method comprising: Step 1, carrying out fusion and conversion processing on multi-source data in a target evaluation area to form a risk element data set, and respectively calculating a risk value of each extreme weather event under a standard space scale; step 2, extracting historical monitoring data of four field calibration points in a target evaluation area, and calculating actual measurement risk values of the field calibration points and field risk deviation values of the field calibration points; step 3, constructing a space tetrahedron, calculating the directed distance from any space grid point to be corrected to each triangular plane of the space tetrahedron, and judging whether the space grid point to be corrected is positioned inside or outside the space tetrahedron to obtain a judgment result; Step 4, calculating acting force components of the space grid points to be corrected in the axial directions of the spaces based on the judging result, and determining grid risk deviation values of the space grid points to be corrected by combining the field risk deviation values of the field calibration points to generate a continuous risk deviation correction field; step 5, correcting risk values of standard spatial scales through a risk deviation correction field, and analyzing interaction and linkage effects of risks of various extreme climate events based on correction results to obtain comprehensive extreme climate risk levels and spatial distribution under multi-disaster coupling situations of a target evaluation area; and 6, dynamically estimating the evolution trend of the extreme climate comprehensive risk of the target evaluation area according to the comprehensive extreme climate risk level and the spatial distribution and combining the future climate change scene simulation data to form a targeted risk prevention and control and adaptation strategy. In a second aspect, a multi-disaster coupled regional extreme climate comprehensive risk assessment method and system include: The system comprises an acquisition module, a space tetrahedron, a judgment module, a calculation module and a calculation module, wherein the acquisition module is used for carrying out fusion and conversion processing on multi-source data in a target evaluation area to form a risk factor data set, and respectively calculating a risk value of each extreme weather event under a standard space scale; the system comprises a processing module, a risk deviation correction field, a comprehensive extreme climate risk level and spatial distribution under the condition of multi-disaster coupling of a target evaluation area, and a target evaluation area extreme climate comprehensive risk level and spatial distribution, wherein the processing module is u