CN-122022521-A - Early warning and evaluating method for flood dispatching scheme

CN122022521ACN 122022521 ACN122022521 ACN 122022521ACN-122022521-A

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for early warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme, which relates to the field of hydraulic engineering management and reservoir dispatching, wherein a scheme process of a planning scheme and a key node event library are imported into an early warning model in advance to remind or warn events meeting triggering requirements in the process, the optimal planning scheme is obtained by adjusting the delivery flow and the delivery force of a reservoir in the planning scheme according to the content of the warned events and constraints, the index quantity of the warehousing flood is calculated in advance according to the process of the optimal planning scheme, actual incoming water and current reservoir operation data, damaged events and constraints are reminded in real time, the actual process simulation scheme and a complex scheme are compared in advance, the indexes are subjected to weight distribution to obtain scheme scores, and finally scheme recommendation is carried out according to the scores. The invention constructs the early warning and re-coiling route from the dynamic optimization of the planning scheme, the real-time risk early warning to the post quantitative evaluation, and provides scientific support for the drainage basin flood dispatching.

Inventors

LIANG YONGZHEN
JIANG ZHIQIANG
JIN LINA
WANG JINGYI
WU WENXIONG
Jia Xufan
LI ZHIJIN
ZHANG CHI

Assignees

华中科技大学

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260202

Claims (7)

1. The early warning and evaluating method of the flood dispatching scheme is characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, a scheme process of a planning scheme and a key node event library are imported into an early warning model in advance, and events meeting triggering requirements in the process are reminded or alarmed; s2, an optimal plan scheme is obtained according to the content of the alarm event and the reservoir outlet flow and output of the reservoir in the constraint adjustment plan scheme, so that the event and the constraint are not destroyed as much as possible in the scheme process; S3, calculating a target amount of the storage flood according to the process of the optimization planning scheme, actual incoming water and current reservoir operation data in the process, and reminding a damaged event and constraint in real time; And S4, carrying out scheme comparison on the actual process simulation scheme and the multi-disc scheme afterwards, calculating the numerical values of the indexes of each aspect of the reservoir in the scheme process, then carrying out weight distribution on the indexes to obtain scheme scores, and finally carrying out scheme recommendation according to the scores.
2. The method for pre-warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme according to claim 1, wherein in S1: The planning scheme refers to a power station operation process and a hydrologic station water level flow process which are simulated according to the forecasting water supply and the power station operation rule, and comprises the dam front water level of each unit period of the power station Tail water level Flow rate of warehouse entry Flow rate of delivery from warehouse Flow rate of electricity generation Output of Hydrologic station flow And hydrologic station water level ; The key node event is abbreviated as an event, and is a specific node established in reservoir dispatching management and used for monitoring and early warning risks and problems possibly occurring in advance, wherein the key node event comprises the number of the event, the type of an applicable scheme, the starting time, the ending time, a trigger variable, a trigger condition, a trigger threshold 1, a trigger threshold 2, the duration, the allowed damage number, the allowed damage degree, the logic relation with the associated event, the number of the associated event and the event content; the key node event library refers to a set containing all events; The early warning model is a model for monitoring the running process of the scheme according to the triggering requirement of the event, and reminds or alarms the event meeting the triggering requirement; the reminding and alarming respectively refer to operations when the scheme process meets the event execution requirement and the scheme process breaks the event boundary so that the event cannot be continuously executed.
3. The method for pre-warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme according to claim 2, wherein the key node event definition is explained as follows: the applicable scheme types comprise a annual plan, a month plan, a seven-day plan and a two-day plan, and are divided according to the execution time length of the event; the start time and end time refer to the earliest start time and latest end time that the event is allowed to execute; The trigger variable refers to the influence of what kind of variable the event is triggered, and the selectable item of the trigger variable is time Water level in front of dam Tail water level Flow rate of warehouse entry Flow rate of delivery from warehouse Output of Hydrologic station flow And hydrologic station water level ; The trigger condition refers to a logic relation between the trigger variable and the trigger threshold 1 and the trigger threshold 2, and the trigger condition selectable items are equal to, greater than, less than, between and not between; The duration refers to the number of time periods that the event needs to satisfy the trigger condition; the allowable destruction number and the allowable destruction degree refer to the number of time periods allowed within the duration that do not satisfy the trigger condition and the difference from the trigger threshold, respectively; The logic relation with the associated event includes none, and/or not, which means that the state of the event is assumed to be 1 when triggered, 0 when not triggered, and the final state of the event is obtained after the event and the associated event are subjected to none, and/or non-operation when the state of the event is 1.
4. The method for pre-warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme according to claim 3, wherein the step S2 specifically comprises the following steps: s21, counting the event triggering variable as the water level in front of the dam Flow rate of delivery from warehouse Output of Hydrologic station flow And hydrologic station water level Forming an alarm event set, and recording the triggering variables, the triggering threshold values and the alarm time of all alarm events; S22, the planning scheme adjusts the reservoir outlet flow Q out at a proper time point according to the trigger variable and the trigger threshold of the first alarm event to obtain an adjustment scheme, so that the first alarm event is ensured not to alarm in the adjustment scheme; s23, importing a scheme process of an adjustment scheme and a key node event library into an early warning model, obtaining a reminding and alarming event set again, comparing the alarming event set of the adjustment scheme with the alarming event set of the original scheme, and if the number of the alarming events of the adjustment scheme is smaller than that of the original scheme, considering that the adjustment scheme is better, otherwise, the original scheme is better; s24, repeating the steps S21-S23 until an optimal planning scheme is obtained.
5. The method for pre-warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme according to claim 4, wherein the step S3 specifically comprises the following steps: S31, the warehousing flood index quantity comprises average warehousing flow Peak flood flow rate Peak time Maximum five-day flood Seven-day average warehouse entry of flood peak ; S32, calculating the average storage flow of the reservoir in the scheduling scheme period , Wherein The warehousing flow of the power station in the nth period is n, which is the period number of the scheduling scheme; S33, calculating the maximum five-day flood of the reservoir , , For the warehousing flow rate of the power station in the nth period, The time of each period of the power station operation data; s34, calculating seven-day average warehouse entry of flood peak , , Is the warehouse-in flow of the power station in each period of seven days, n is the number of seven-day periods.
6. The method for early warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme according to claim 1, wherein the step S4 specifically comprises: The multi-plate scheme comprises a regulation scheme, a warehouse-in and warehouse-out balancing scheme and an optimization scheme, wherein the regulation scheme refers to a reservoir dispatching scheme for dispatching reservoirs completely according to dispatching regulations and is used for comparing the power generation benefits with the actual process; the evaluation index quantity of the scheme comprises a power generation index, namely the power generation quantity Output guarantee rate Load factor Rate of consumption of water Flood utilization rate Index of flood control, flood control Peak clipping rate Highest water level of flood control station Maximum flow rate of flood control station Water level index, mean water level Maximum water level Daily amplitude of maximum water level The ex-warehouse index is the average ex-warehouse flow Maximum delivery flow The index of water discard is the water discard quantity Ecological index, ecological flow rate meeting rate Ecological overflow quantity Ecological water shortage Water supply index, water supply guarantee rate Shipping index: navigation days satisfaction rate ; The weight distribution is to configure and calculate the importance coefficient of each index according to the analytic hierarchy process, including each small index of the power generation index, the flood control index, the water level index, the ex-warehouse index, the water discarding index, the ecological index, the water supply index, the shipping index and each small index; The scheme scoring is to set the highest value of each same small index in a plurality of schemes as 100 points, the scores of the same small indexes of the other schemes are obtained by the ratio among index values, then the final scores of the schemes are obtained according to the small indexes and the corresponding weights of the indexes, and finally the scheme recommendation is carried out according to the final scores of the schemes.
7. The method for pre-warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme according to claim 6, wherein the weight distribution method specifically comprises the following sub-steps: S430, establishing a hierarchical structure model, and dividing decision objects into a highest layer, a middle layer and a lowest layer according to the interrelation between the decision objects; S431, when determining the weight among the factors of each level, comparing the factors two by adopting a consistent matrix method to obtain an importance judgment matrix, wherein the judgment matrix has properties The importance degree of a ij is a comparison result of importance of an element i and an element j, the importance degree is illustrated by 1-9, 1 is the same, 3 is slightly important, 5 is obviously important, 7 is extremely important, 9 is strongly important, and other numbers are between the two, when the importance degree of an index A to B is judged to be 5, the importance degree of B to A is 1/5, the importance assignment refers to the evaluation of each index in the prior study, and the indexes are subjected to one-to-one comparison assignment by combining with the opinion of a scheduling expert; S432, performing consistency test judgment according to the result of the test coefficient CR, if CR is less than 0.1, considering that the judgment matrix passes the consistency test, otherwise, the judgment matrix does not have consistency; wherein , CI is a consistency index, and is a consistency index, RI is a random consistency index for measuring the size of CI; s433, calculating the weight of all factors of a certain layer on the relative importance of the highest layer.

Description

Early warning and evaluating method for flood dispatching scheme Technical Field The invention relates to the field of hydraulic engineering management and reservoir dispatching, in particular to a method for early warning and evaluating a flood dispatching scheme. Background Flood scheduling is a core means of combined operation of river basin flood control and water engineering, and the scientificity and adaptability of the scheme are directly related to the life and property safety of people, great engineering benefit exertion and the overall toughness of a river basin water system. Reservoir flood control usually plans reservoir scheduling process in advance according to forecast incoming water to pursue single objective optimal or meet main constraint, but methods are fewer in terms of whether more node events can be executed and more constraint can be met, if the scheduling process can be accurately controlled to meet more constraint, water resource saving and utilization can be achieved, comprehensive benefits of hydraulic engineering can be exerted, and modernization level of river basin water treatment capacity can be practically improved. At present, the establishment of a flood scheduling scheme mainly depends on the established incoming water conditions and engineering scheduling constraints, and a scheduling flow is generated through mathematical model simulation calculation. The method has certain operability, but has the defects of weak planning, lack of sensitivity and influence analysis, insufficient decision support capability, lack of evaluation of multi-objective results such as flood control risks, power generation losses, shipping influences, ecological responses and the like possibly brought after implementation events, fewer evaluation indexes of the scheme in a future complex disc, weaker evaluation capability, and lack of accuracy of the scheme complex disc due to insufficient reduction degree of the scheme scheduling process. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a method capable of early warning key node events before a scheduling scheme executing process and carrying out multi-scheme multi-disc analysis on the scheme after the event. The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the problems is that the method for early warning and evaluating the flood dispatching scheme comprises the following steps: S1, a scheme process of a planning scheme and a key node event library are imported into an early warning model in advance, and events meeting triggering requirements in the process are reminded or alarmed; s2, an optimal plan scheme is obtained according to the content of the alarm event and the reservoir outlet flow and output of the reservoir in the constraint adjustment plan scheme, so that the event and the constraint are not destroyed as much as possible in the scheme process; S3, calculating a target amount of the storage flood according to the process of the optimization planning scheme, actual incoming water and current reservoir operation data in the process, and reminding a damaged event and constraint in real time; And S4, carrying out scheme comparison on the actual process simulation scheme and the multi-disc scheme afterwards, calculating the numerical values of the indexes of each aspect of the reservoir in the scheme process, then carrying out weight distribution on the indexes to obtain scheme scores, and finally carrying out scheme recommendation according to the scores. In the step S1: S11, the planning scheme refers to a power station operation process and a hydrologic station water level flow process which are simulated according to the forecast water supply and the power station operation rule, and comprises the dam front water level of each unit period of the power station Tail water levelFlow rate of warehouse entryFlow rate of delivery from warehouseFlow rate of electricity generationOutput ofHydrologic station flowAnd hydrologic station water level; S12, key node events are simply referred to as events, and refer to specific nodes established in reservoir dispatching management and are used for monitoring and early warning risks and problems possibly occurring in advance. The key node event comprises the number of the event, the type of the applicable scheme, the starting time, the ending time, the trigger variable, the trigger condition, the trigger threshold 1, the trigger threshold 2, the duration time, the allowed damage number, the allowed damage degree, the logical relation with the associated event, the associated event number and the event content; S13, a key node event library refers to a set containing all events; S14, the early warning model is a model for monitoring the running process of the scheme according to the triggering requirement of the event, and reminds or alarms the event meeting the triggering requirement; s15, reminding and alarming respectively refer to operations when the scheme process meets the req