CN-122022533-A - Target runoff pollutant load prediction method, device, equipment and medium

CN122022533ACN 122022533 ACN122022533 ACN 122022533ACN-122022533-A

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of hydrologic water environment and discloses a method, a device, equipment and a medium for predicting target runoff pollutant load, wherein the method for predicting the target runoff pollutant load comprises the steps of identifying rainfall events according to meteorological data and determining a pollution migration coupling driving index according to rainfall and peak rainfall intensity; determining a grading response factor according to the relation between the relative index and a preset grading threshold, correcting a preset pollutant migration parameter by using the grading response factor, predicting runoff pollution by using a target pollutant migration parameter and rainfall of a rainfall event, and determining a target runoff pollutant load according to a runoff flow and pollutant concentration predicted value of the rainfall event.

Inventors

XU CHAOWEI
CHEN YASONG
ZHAO YUNPENG
ZHU YATING
JIA BOYANG
HOU YUKUN
SHEN QIUSHI
LI LI

Assignees

三峡环境科技有限公司
中国长江三峡集团有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260413

Claims (11)

1. A method of predicting a target runoff contaminant load, the method comprising: acquiring meteorological data of a target area in a target time period, identifying rainfall events according to the meteorological data, and acquiring rainfall capacity and peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event; Analyzing the pollutant scouring potential of each rainfall event according to the rainfall capacity and the peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event to obtain a pollution migration coupling driving index, wherein the pollution migration coupling driving index is used for representing the pollutant scouring potential of the rainfall event; acquiring a reference pollution migration coupling driving index, and determining a relative pollution migration coupling driving index according to the pollution migration coupling driving index and the reference pollution migration coupling driving index, wherein the relative pollution migration coupling driving index is used for representing the scouring potential of the rainfall event relative to the strength degree of a reference scene; Determining a grading response factor according to the relation between the relative pollution migration coupling driving index and a preset grading threshold value, and correcting a preset pollutant migration parameter by using the grading response factor to obtain a target pollutant migration parameter, wherein the grading response factor is a dynamic adjustment factor of the preset pollutant migration parameter, and the preset pollutant migration parameter is used for representing the speed or the capacity of pollutants in a standard scene along with runoff migration; carrying out runoff pollution prediction by utilizing the target pollutant migration parameter and the rainfall of each rainfall event to obtain a runoff flow predicted value and a pollutant concentration predicted value of each rainfall event; And determining a target runoff pollutant load of the target area in the target time period according to the runoff flow predicted value and the pollutant concentration predicted value of each rainfall event.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein said identifying rainfall events from said weather data, obtaining rainfall and peak rain intensity for each of said rainfall events, comprises: according to the meteorological data, selecting an event that the total rainfall flow is larger than a preset rainfall threshold, the rainfall intensity is larger than a preset rainfall intensity threshold and the rainfall time interval is larger than a preset time interval threshold as the rainfall event; And determining the rainfall capacity and the peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event according to the rainfall intensity of each rainfall event.
3. The method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein said analyzing the pollutant scouring potential of each of said rainfall events based on said rainfall and said peak rain intensity for said rainfall event to obtain a pollution migration-coupling driving index comprises: obtaining a first product result according to the product of the rainfall and the peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event; The contamination transfer coupling driving index is determined based on the square root of the first product result.
4. The method of claim 1 or 2, wherein the obtaining a reference pollution migration coupling drive index, determining a relative pollution migration coupling drive index from the pollution migration coupling drive index and the reference pollution migration coupling drive index, comprises: acquiring a reference rainfall and a reference peak value rainfall intensity, and determining a reference pollution migration coupling driving index according to the square root of the product of the reference rainfall and the reference peak value rainfall intensity; and determining the relative pollution migration coupling driving index according to the quotient of the pollution migration coupling driving index and the reference pollution migration coupling driving index.
5. The method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the predetermined classification threshold comprises a first classification threshold and a second classification threshold, wherein determining a classification response factor according to a relationship between the relative contaminant migration coupling driving index and the predetermined classification threshold, and correcting a predetermined contaminant migration parameter by using the classification response factor to obtain a target contaminant migration parameter comprises: When the relative pollution migration coupling driving index is smaller than the first grading threshold, a first preset response factor is used as the grading response factor, and the first grading threshold is smaller than the second grading threshold; When the relative pollution migration coupling driving index is larger than or equal to the first grading threshold value and the relative pollution migration coupling driving index is smaller than the second grading threshold value, taking a second preset response factor as the grading response factor, wherein the second preset response factor is larger than the first preset response factor; when the relative pollution migration coupling driving index is larger than or equal to the second grading threshold, taking a third preset response factor as the grading response factor, wherein the third preset response factor is larger than the second preset response factor; and obtaining the target pollutant migration parameter according to the product of the grading response factor and the preset pollutant migration parameter.
6. The method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein said predicting runoff pollution using said target pollutant migration parameter and said rainfall for each of said rainfall events, obtaining a predicted runoff flow value and a predicted pollutant concentration value for each of said rainfall events, comprises: Inputting the target pollutant migration parameters and the rainfall of each rainfall event into a preset pollutant scouring accumulation simulation model to predict runoff pollution, and obtaining the runoff flow predicted value and the pollutant concentration predicted value of each rainfall event.
7. The method of claim 1 or 2, wherein said determining a target runoff contaminant load for the target zone over the target period of time from the runoff flow prediction value and the contaminant concentration prediction value for each of the rainfall events comprises: Obtaining runoff pollutant flux of each rainfall event according to product integration of the runoff flow predicted value and the pollutant concentration predicted value of each rainfall event in a rainfall time period; and summing the runoff pollutant fluxes of a plurality of rainfall events in the target time period of the target area to obtain the target runoff pollutant load.
8. A device for predicting a target runoff contaminant load, the device comprising: The rainfall event identification module is used for acquiring meteorological data of a target area in a target time period, identifying rainfall events according to the meteorological data and acquiring rainfall capacity and peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event; The driving index determining module is used for analyzing the pollutant scouring potential of each rainfall event according to the rainfall capacity and the peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event to obtain a pollution migration coupling driving index, wherein the pollution migration coupling driving index is used for representing the pollutant scouring potential of the rainfall event; the relative driving index determining module is used for obtaining a reference pollution migration coupling driving index and determining the relative pollution migration coupling driving index according to the pollution migration coupling driving index and the reference pollution migration coupling driving index; the relative pollution migration coupling driving index is used for representing the scouring potential of the rainfall event relative to the strength degree of a reference scene; The migration parameter correction module is used for determining a classification response factor according to the relation between the relative pollution migration coupling driving index and a preset classification threshold value, and correcting a preset pollutant migration parameter by using the classification response factor to obtain a target pollutant migration parameter; the runoff pollution prediction module is used for predicting runoff pollution by utilizing the target pollutant migration parameter and the rainfall of each rainfall event to obtain a runoff flow predicted value and a pollutant concentration predicted value of each rainfall event; And the pollutant load determining module is used for determining a target runoff pollutant load of the target area in the target time period according to the runoff flow predicted value and the pollutant concentration predicted value of each rainfall event.
9. An electronic device, comprising: A memory and a processor in communication with each other, the memory having stored therein computer instructions, the processor executing the computer instructions to perform the method of predicting a target radial flow contaminant load of any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions for causing a computer to perform the method of predicting a target runoff contaminant load according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
11. A computer program product comprising computer instructions for causing a computer to perform the method of predicting a target runoff contaminant load according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

Description

Target runoff pollutant load prediction method, device, equipment and medium Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of hydrologic water environments, in particular to a method, a device, equipment and a medium for predicting target runoff pollutant load. Background Under the impact of storm, a large amount of accumulated pollutants are wrapped in the surface runoff and quickly gathered into the receiving water body through the water outlet, so that the instantaneous deterioration of water quality and ecological risks are caused. Therefore, the accurate prediction of runoff pollution after urban heavy rain is a core link of urban water environment management and non-point source pollution control. In the related art, the method for predicting the runoff pollution is to predict the runoff pollution by adopting fixed pollutant flushing parameters. However, the scouring power characteristics are different under different rainfall events, the fixed pollutant scouring parameters are sampled, and the obtained runoff pollution is not accurate enough and does not accord with the actual runoff pollution condition. Disclosure of Invention The invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a medium for predicting target runoff pollutant load, which are used for solving the problems that the runoff pollution caused by the runoff pollution prediction method in the related technology is inaccurate and does not accord with the actual runoff pollution condition. The method comprises the steps of obtaining meteorological data of a target area in a target time period, identifying rainfall events according to the meteorological data, obtaining rainfall and peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event, analyzing pollutant scouring potential of the rainfall events according to the rainfall and peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event to obtain a pollutant migration coupling driving index, obtaining a reference pollutant migration coupling driving index used for representing the pollutant scouring potential of the rainfall events, determining relative pollutant migration coupling driving indexes according to the pollutant migration coupling driving index and the reference pollutant migration coupling driving index, determining grading response factors according to the relation between the relative pollutant migration coupling driving index and a preset grading threshold, correcting preset pollutant migration parameters by the grading response factors to obtain target pollutant migration parameters, wherein the grading response factors are dynamic adjustment factors of the preset pollutant migration parameters, the preset pollutant migration parameters are used for representing the pollutant scouring potential of the rainfall events in a standard scene, determining relative to the reference pollutant migration driving index, determining relative pollutant migration coupling driving index according to the relative to the reference scene intensity, predicting the relation between the relative pollutant migration coupling driving index and the preset grading threshold, and obtaining the target migration coupling driving index and the target flow predicted by the rainfall event, and the target flow predicted by the target flow and the rainfall value. According to the target runoff pollutant load prediction method, meteorological data of a target area in a target time period are obtained, rainfall events are identified according to the meteorological data, rainfall capacity and peak rain intensity of each rainfall event are obtained, the rainfall events are accurately identified through the meteorological data, two core driving factors of the rainfall capacity and the peak rain intensity are extracted, and reliable basic data are provided for subsequent analysis. According to the rainfall capacity and the peak rainfall intensity of each rainfall event, the pollutant scouring potential of the rainfall event is analyzed to obtain the pollution migration coupling driving index, the two key parameters of the rainfall capacity and the peak rainfall intensity are coupled to form the pollution migration coupling driving index, and quantitative representation of the rainfall scouring capacity is realized. According to the method, the reference pollution migration coupling driving index is obtained, the relative pollution migration coupling driving index is determined according to the pollution migration coupling driving index and the reference pollution migration coupling driving index, the reference scene is introduced for comparison, the absolute pollution migration coupling driving index is converted into the relative pollution migration coupling driving index, so that the scouring potential between different rainfall events is more comparable, the difference between the current rainfall event and the standard scene can be clearly judged, and the basis is provided for grading response. According to the me